China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

So it looks like you get more protection from naturally surviving Covid, than the vaccine (oxford)?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-virus-antibodies-last-for-at-least-six-months-after-infection-study-finds-12207174

https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-vaccine-may-have-67-effect-on-transmission-and-protection-remains-for-three-month-jab-interval-12206734

Not actually sure if this is good or bad news.

It's hard to know but can only think that any resistance at this stage is better than none.

I would consider that the UK playing a dangerous game with the 12 week gap, going against all other advice on the matter.

They are doing such a massive job on getting the 1st jab done, are they risking limiting this impact by waiting another 12 weeks? The stats to date suggesting they are in the vulnerable categories before the new variants are to be considered.

The data from Israel compared to UK over coming weeks will be key for research groups into this.

What they're saying is the data is backing the gap between doses in the AstraZeneca jab.  They are saying that the wait of 12 weeks is working with that jab. 
GetOverTheBar has misread what the article is saying. It's not that the anitibodies that the AstraZeneca jab lasts JUST 3 months, it's that it lasts the three months between the jabs.  They are taking a gamble on leaving a 12 week gap between Pfizer jabs.  There is no data to back that decision.
The AstraZeneca news is really encouraging in fact.  It will bring the pandemic to an end much quicker.  There is one massive caveat to it though, the variants.  The race is on to get this vaccine campaign completed before they become the dominant strain.

Covid is something that's here to stay, it's something that will likely come around seasonally like flu, it will kill people every year but we will just get on with things - much like we do with flu currently.

Do people here think we are going to completely eradicate Covid forever over the next year or so?

Or do they think, as I do, that it's here for the rest of our lives and much like flu will cause excess deaths every winter, vaccines or no vaccines. We'll get better at treating it but it's still going to kill people but 90% odd of those will be people with low life expectancies anyway.

How long is a season with covid? What was the death rate around April and May? September and October?  have you figures to show that this will be just a winter thing?

I asked a question an you responded without answering, only to ask a number of questions.

Do you think we are going to eradicate Covid or do you think it is here to stay? Simple question for you to state which way you think it will go.

When/where did you ask me a question?

But if this helps... Covid has been around in many different forms for years, it's not going away but we have managed to adopt, that's what the world is currently doing, finding vaccines lowering cases and fatalities.

Now, answer mine

I asked a question in the post you responded to. You responed with a question. Again I have asked you to answer the question and you have given a vague, ambiguous answer as per usual.

It's a pretty simple question so try and answer it simply rather than sitting on the fence.

Do you think we will be able to eradicate Covid with lockdown measures and a vaccine? Yes or no.

I answered it, what's the issue? Covid will be with us and has been with us for years, and we will adopt to it

Now can you answer mine? or you can just avoid it

So to clarify you accept that the vaccine and lockdown measures are not going to get rid of Covid?

I would say April was an outlier.

Deaths from May - September did not see huge variations really. An 8% increase on deaths in the same period of 2019.

If you exclude the outlier of April, deaths rose by 9% last year in comparison to 2019. That sort of rise in deaths is not unprecedented, we had a 6% rise from 2014 to 2015, deaths rose again 2 years later by another 4%.

April is a massive outlier in the whole pandemic.

Was the flu of 17/18 an outlier?

So what happened between the months of May to September?  was there a lockdown end of March through to July? Schools off and most people out doors, then strangely Sept we started to see a rise in cases

[Louther]

Let's just exclude a month 

The month that was first serious indicator of the pandemic 

[Ed Ricketts]

The question I asked was what was the average life expectancy from when a person enters a nursing home. The question is quite clear, there is little ambiguity in it. I went and found out the answer too, linked in the report - its 12 months. You have posted a series of long meandering posts that cover anything but the question asked.

Average = cumulative total divided by number of figures
Life expectancy = how long they will live for
When they go into the nursing home = as it says

Average life expectancy when they go into a nursing home.

I didn't ask for how long or how short they could live for, I asked for the average life expectancy. Maybe try and read more carefully next time.

This type of reply is why you are not respected by anyone on this board, Angelo.

There was an attempt to inform a feature of the discussion with reliable, and clearly relevant information. Most people with a genuine interest in developing the discussion would have taken this in good faith and worked through the figures.

But, as usual, your replies demonstrated no desire to get involved in an actual discussion. All you offered instead was belligerence and dogma.

The bit highlighted above is peak Angelo - you find something, somewhere that chimes along your intractable position and refuse to entertain any appraisal of contradictory information. The most absurd thing is that the source you provided doesn't even say what you claim it says. This is all very Trumpian, very post truth. Do you think it convinces many?

If you must make yourself such an incessant presence throughout this board, at least try to contribute from a position of honesty going forward. You have almost 1000 posts here since the turn of the year - more than 10% of the board output. You set the tone on whole threads here, which now essentially read like your blog. And that tone is nasty, antagonistic, and frustrated.

It seems like some sort of acceptance matters to you on this board, despite your objections. There's little other reason to spend so much time and energy in defence of an online persona. Perhaps a change of approach should be considered, for the health of both the board and yourself.

[Angelo]

So it looks like you get more protection from naturally surviving Covid, than the vaccine (oxford)?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-virus-antibodies-last-for-at-least-six-months-after-infection-study-finds-12207174

https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-vaccine-may-have-67-effect-on-transmission-and-protection-remains-for-three-month-jab-interval-12206734

Not actually sure if this is good or bad news.

It's hard to know but can only think that any resistance at this stage is better than none.

I would consider that the UK playing a dangerous game with the 12 week gap, going against all other advice on the matter.

They are doing such a massive job on getting the 1st jab done, are they risking limiting this impact by waiting another 12 weeks? The stats to date suggesting they are in the vulnerable categories before the new variants are to be considered.

The data from Israel compared to UK over coming weeks will be key for research groups into this.

What they're saying is the data is backing the gap between doses in the AstraZeneca jab.  They are saying that the wait of 12 weeks is working with that jab. 
GetOverTheBar has misread what the article is saying. It's not that the anitibodies that the AstraZeneca jab lasts JUST 3 months, it's that it lasts the three months between the jabs.  They are taking a gamble on leaving a 12 week gap between Pfizer jabs.  There is no data to back that decision.
The AstraZeneca news is really encouraging in fact.  It will bring the pandemic to an end much quicker.  There is one massive caveat to it though, the variants.  The race is on to get this vaccine campaign completed before they become the dominant strain.

Covid is something that's here to stay, it's something that will likely come around seasonally like flu, it will kill people every year but we will just get on with things - much like we do with flu currently.

Do people here think we are going to completely eradicate Covid forever over the next year or so?

Or do they think, as I do, that it's here for the rest of our lives and much like flu will cause excess deaths every winter, vaccines or no vaccines. We'll get better at treating it but it's still going to kill people but 90% odd of those will be people with low life expectancies anyway.

How long is a season with covid? What was the death rate around April and May? September and October?  have you figures to show that this will be just a winter thing?

I asked a question an you responded without answering, only to ask a number of questions.

Do you think we are going to eradicate Covid or do you think it is here to stay? Simple question for you to state which way you think it will go.

When/where did you ask me a question?

But if this helps... Covid has been around in many different forms for years, it's not going away but we have managed to adopt, that's what the world is currently doing, finding vaccines lowering cases and fatalities.

Now, answer mine

I asked a question in the post you responded to. You responed with a question. Again I have asked you to answer the question and you have given a vague, ambiguous answer as per usual.

It's a pretty simple question so try and answer it simply rather than sitting on the fence.

Do you think we will be able to eradicate Covid with lockdown measures and a vaccine? Yes or no.

I answered it, what's the issue? Covid will be with us and has been with us for years, and we will adopt to it

Now can you answer mine? or you can just avoid it

So to clarify you accept that the vaccine and lockdown measures are not going to get rid of Covid?

I would say April was an outlier.

Deaths from May - September did not see huge variations really. An 8% increase on deaths in the same period of 2019.

If you exclude the outlier of April, deaths rose by 9% last year in comparison to 2019. That sort of rise in deaths is not unprecedented, we had a 6% rise from 2014 to 2015, deaths rose again 2 years later by another 4%.

April is a massive outlier in the whole pandemic.

Was the flu of 17/18 an outlier?

So what happened between the months of May to September?  was there a lockdown end of March through to July? Schools off and most people out doors, then strangely Sept we started to see a rise in cases

Of course.

But we didn't shut society down like we've done for Covid on the basis of an outlier which had a vaccine readily available.

[Angelo]

Let's just exclude a month 

The month that was first serious indicator of the pandemic 

Yet people here want to ignore winter flu in 17/18.

You can't have it both ways.

[Angelo]

The question I asked was what was the average life expectancy from when a person enters a nursing home. The question is quite clear, there is little ambiguity in it. I went and found out the answer too, linked in the report - its 12 months. You have posted a series of long meandering posts that cover anything but the question asked.

Average = cumulative total divided by number of figures
Life expectancy = how long they will live for
When they go into the nursing home = as it says

Average life expectancy when they go into a nursing home.

I didn't ask for how long or how short they could live for, I asked for the average life expectancy. Maybe try and read more carefully next time.

This type of reply is why you are not respected by anyone on this board, Angelo.

There was an attempt to inform a feature of the discussion with reliable, and clearly relevant information. Most people with a genuine interest in developing the discussion would have taken this in good faith and worked through the figures.

But, as usual, your replies demonstrated no desire to get involved in an actual discussion. All you offered instead was belligerence and dogma.

The bit highlighted above is peak Angelo - you find something, somewhere that chimes along your intractable position and refuse to entertain any appraisal of contradictory information. The most absurd thing is that the source you provided doesn't even say what you claim it says. This is all very Trumpian, very post truth. Do you think it convinces many?

If you must make yourself such an incessant presence throughout this board, at least try to contribute from a position of honesty going forward. You have almost 1000 posts here since the turn of the year - more than 10% of the board output. You set the tone on whole threads here, which now essentially read like your blog. And that tone is nasty, antagonistic, and frustrated.

It seems like some sort of acceptance matters to you on this board, despite your objections. There's little other reason to spend so much time and energy in defence of an online persona. Perhaps a change of approach should be considered, for the health of both the board and yourself.

You're projecting here. You tried to muddy the waters with misniformation and have now proceeded to attack the man rather than play the ball.

I asked a question and you took to answering something different in order to shift the focus.

It is the absolute height of hypocrisy from yourself to talk about honesty, Trumpian, atagonistic and nasty when these are all the motivations for you to spin, smear and bullshit your way around facts and data that don't fit in with your prejudiced agenda.

[Louther]

As has been pointed out numerous times - no one has ignored the flu in 2017/18. It's been explained to you everyway with links, reports and comments.

You just want to throw out a month to reduce figures!
Will we exclude anymore periods for you to form an argument?

[Angelo]

As has been pointed out numerous times - no one has ignored the flu in 2017/18. It's been explained to you everyway with links, reports and comments.

You just want to throw out a month to reduce figures!
Will we exclude anymore periods for you to form an argument?

So were you advocating lockdowns in 2017/18 winter flu season?

Did you find that level of deaths acceptable?

Should we lockdown every winter to save lives from flu?

There are simple questions with yes/no answers you don't have the courage to answer and  avoid as they unmask your double standards. This is the crux of the matter.

Hypocrites putting themselves up on a pedestal pontificating about saving lives when they could not give a toss.

[GetOverTheBar]

Just a quick one for everyone on their current thinking -

Do you as things stand, see March being the end of lockdown both North and South?

I'm feeling like it could well be, things seem to be going down. I don't expect either jurisdiction to ease anything in February. I don't expect them to open everything March (maybe most things by the end of it). Where do you see it?

[imtommygunn]

I think there is a possibility for things like cafes and gyms to open. I would be very surprised on bars. Restaurants I'm not too sure on.

(Only a feeling as I know as much as anyone else lol)

[Jeepers Creepers]

Things seem to be going in the right direction here. We get bogged down with whats happening in England. I would imagine some easing of a restriction or two but nothing to exciting.

[Angelo]

Just a quick one for everyone on their current thinking -

Do you as things stand, see March being the end of lockdown both North and South?

I'm feeling like it could well be, things seem to be going down. I don't expect either jurisdiction to ease anything in February. I don't expect them to open everything March (maybe most things by the end of it). Where do you see it?

You'd hope so but you couldn't rule it out. It will be a gradual rolling back from March you'd assume.

Governments and politics as a whole has been utterly disgraceful throughout this, they have failed to tackle any of the issues driving it. The report in the FS yesterday about half of the deaths being nursing home residents was utterly scandalous and that has nothing to do with people not following restrictions, it is do with poor planning and neglecting the most vulnerable, the same can be said about 1/3 of people with Covid in hospitals actually contracting it there. This is a health service crisis more than anything else.

For 95% of the population this virus is no danger but the most vulnerable have been failed by the state.

Governments took the strategy of throwing all their eggs into one basket (the vaccine). So if this doesn't work or is not effective we are back to square one and have given up a year of our lives living like hermits, caused huge social damage to society, wrecked the economy, forced financial hardship on families, shut businesses down, took away people's livelihoods and jobs - for what end?

[Louther]

As has been pointed out numerous times - no one has ignored the flu in 2017/18. It's been explained to you everyway with links, reports and comments.

You just want to throw out a month to reduce figures!
Will we exclude anymore periods for you to form an argument?

So were you advocating lockdowns in 2017/18 winter flu season?

Did you find that level of deaths acceptable?

Should we lockdown every winter to save lives from flu?

There are simple questions with yes/no answers you don't have the courage to answer and  avoid as they unmask your double standards. This is the crux of the matter.

Hypocrites putting themselves up on a pedestal pontificating about saving lives when they could not give a toss.

Angelo - the only thing you care about is yourself and what suits you. On every thread you post on this board you argue, shout, ignore and insult others. Every single one. There is a common denominator there. You. You don't give a rats arse about Flu, mental health or anything else. Only yourself. I'm sure you're so insecure that you need to shout and reassure yourself you are important but really you're just a mouth who takes no responsibility for anything.

And to answer your questions.

No - wasn't advocating for lockdown in 2017/18. There was already lot know on flu, measures in place and in ROI the increase in death caused by that flu season was an additional 50 deaths. Tragic in itself but not at levels that requires lockdown measures.

Death isn't acceptable. But there is measures in place by Governments, globally, to measure the risk or new and unknowns threats. When a storm comes, for example, in the US, they will consider it and issue the threat level and categorise the storm. This considers the risk to life. According, the relevant steps are taken to minimise the risk to life - death isn't accepted. Covid was a pandemic. It's been unprecedented since the Spanish flu. It's a variant of past covid outbreaks that, thankfully, never reached the same scale e.g. SARS. It was unknown, highly contagious and deadly. Despite all the measures taken, it has globally killed millions. It's lasting effects are also unknown on the health of people. It's an ongoing battle with some hope in the form of vaccines and it's why I'll take it in a heart beat as I consider death unacceptable and if it helps, then all and good. Death is in in accepted in all walks of life and we have rules and regulations to manage this - rules of the road, building regulations, food standards, etc etc. It's in every walk of life and has manifested itself over time. Covid has allowed time to allow such. It's sudden and borderless.

Should we lockdown ever winter for flu - no. As above and previously, there is widespread measures in place for Flu and they been addressed further every year. For covid we are years back but making unprecedented progress to catch up to a level to mitigate the risks and put it at the level of the Flu. In 2017/18 flu season in ROI there was just over 50 excess deaths from the previous flu season. In total was less than 200 across all months. We've had more than that this week already with Covid WITH unprecedented restrictions. It's really not hard to understand.

Other posters have put it better but you aren't comparing like with like. I've a 12 year old at home who can grasp the importance of the restrictions. He is missing out so much and my heart breaks at times for them but he can understand and appreciate  the risk to his Nanny, to others, to the wider  community and shows maturity beyond his years (like tens of thousands of others his age) and willingness to do his part for this period to get things back to normal.

[Ty4Sam]

I can see a very gradual opening from March with schools opening first with small participation outdoor sports etc following. Going into summer I can see hotels, cafes, restaurants opening with social distancing/masks etc to allow for domestic tourism. I can't see wet pubs opening for the foreseeable unless they can cater for outdoor socialising. Large indoor gatherings ie Weddings, parties etc won't be allowed until next year IMO.
With hotel quarantine due to start shortly in UK and Ireland for specific countries, I can see it being extended to all arrivals for the summer months. There is just too much risk allowing a full scale summer international travel season with variants being around. That reads very pessimistic but I am usually an optimistic person.
This will at least have a summer of some sorts, not ideal but not locked down like we are now.

[Louther]

Just a quick one for everyone on their current thinking -

Do you as things stand, see March being the end of lockdown both North and South?

I'm feeling like it could well be, things seem to be going down. I don't expect either jurisdiction to ease anything in February. I don't expect them to open everything March (maybe most things by the end of it). Where do you see it?

For the south, can see it been handled very lightly with gradual opening in March, very limited.

First thing will be Schools and I'd happily do March if it meant schools got opened. Just allows more time for vaccines in upper age groups and health care workers.

April more retail and potentially Intercounty travel. Indoor restaurants towards end of the month.

With the way it went in December and some hope on horizon it will be handled with kid gloves I
Imagine.