2011 Census

[Harold Disgracey]

Key statistics now available.

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_report_2011.pdf

[Ulick]

No more talk of "Protestant majority" and "the majority community". Such a shame...

[AQMP]

First tranche of 2011 NI Census data released today.

http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/Theme.aspx?themeNumber=136&themeName=Census 2011

A brief glance threw up a couple of interesting stats.  Only 6.5% of people in NI identified themselves as neither Protestant nor Catholic.  I'd thought it would have been higher than that. (Edit: I notice the question was "Religion or religion brought up in")

Almost 38,000 people gave their place of birth as Republic of Ireland making Free Staters   the second biggest "ethnic" group in NI behind people born in England.  More than twice the number as born in Scotland.

[AQMP]

As ziggy pointed out on the other thread, interestingly 40% consider themselves "British Only" 25% "Irish Only" and 20% "Northern Irish Only" and as we know Rory McIlroy is all three!

[Ulick]

Some selected administrative areas:

Antrim: (C)41.20   (P)50.48   (Other)0.93   (None) 7.39
Armagh: (C)48.36   (P)48.00   (Other)0.60   (None) 3.03
Banbridge: (C)32.02   (P)62.02   (Other)0.75   (None) 5.21
Belfast: (C) 48.58%      (P)42.30%   (Other) 1.72   (None) 7.40
Cookstown: (C)59.26   (P)37.78   (Other)0.48   (None) 2.49
Craigavon: (C)45.94%   (P)48.04%   (Other)0.91   (None) 5.11
Dungannon: (C)64.11   (P)33.03   (Other)0.56   (None) 2.30
Lisburn: (C)36.46   (P)55.92   (Other)0.84   (None) 6.78

[fitzroyalty]

From twitter:
'Catholic community' up 1.2% since 2000.
'Protestant community' down 5.1%.

[AQMP]

Some selected administrative areas:

Antrim: (C)41.20   (P)50.48   (Other)0.93   (None) 7.39
Armagh: (C)48.36   (P)48.00   (Other)0.60   (None) 3.03
Banbridge: (C)32.02   (P)62.02   (Other)0.75   (None) 5.21
Belfast: (C) 48.58%      (P)42.30%   (Other) 1.72   (None) 7.40
Cookstown: (C)59.26   (P)37.78   (Other)0.48   (None) 2.49
Craigavon: (C)45.94%   (P)48.04%   (Other)0.91   (None) 5.11
Dungannon: (C)64.11   (P)33.03   (Other)0.56   (None) 2.30
Lisburn: (C)36.46   (P)55.92   (Other)0.84   (None) 6.78

I think the question on national identity is more relevant.  I have to admit I'm surprised that 21% view themselves as "NI Only".  I'd have guessed at somewhere between 10%-15%.  I'd have estimated somewhere in the low 30%s would have classed themselves as "Irish Only", so IMO 25% is surprisingly low. E.g. Strabane District Council area is 65% "Catholic" yet "only" 40% consider themselves "Irish Only"  Only 20% of people in NI have Irish passports with nearly 60% holding British.

[Ulick]

I think the question on national identity is more relevant.  I have to admit I'm surprised that 21% view themselves as "NI Only".  I'd have guessed at somewhere between 10%-15%.  I'd have estimated somewhere in the low 30%s would have classed themselves as "Irish Only", so IMO 25% is surprisingly low. E.g. Strabane District Council area is 65% "Catholic" yet "only" 40% consider themselves "Irish Only"  Only 20% of people on NI have Irish passports with nearly 60% holding British.

I disagree. Simple fact is most people are disengaged from politics and identity issues and are content enough to use an NI regional identity, especially when it's so all pervasive - makes it the easy non-controversial choice. The passport thing is just a continuation of when it was cheaper and easier to obtain, most people I know outside my own family have one. Sure look at your man O Muireagáin, SFer and Irish language activist deported from Israel a few years ago - still living it down that he was on a British passport.

Belfast in 2011 census gives Catholics at 48.58%. In the same year SF & SDLP received 48.5% of the vote for Belfast City Council. Unionists will concentrate on the 'Northern Irish' identity now to counter the fact that they are no longer in a majority and I'd have no doubt that's why this question was placed on the census for the first time. However the fact is we are now in a period of double-minority and there'll never be a unionist majority in the six counties again. That's a good news day for me.

[Tony Baloney]

Perfect timing for Robinson and Nesbitt's "chat". You can imagine there will be a focus on "Protestant unity" i.e. siege mentality.

[Milltown Row2]

I think the question on national identity is more relevant.  I have to admit I'm surprised that 21% view themselves as "NI Only".  I'd have guessed at somewhere between 10%-15%.  I'd have estimated somewhere in the low 30%s would have classed themselves as "Irish Only", so IMO 25% is surprisingly low. E.g. Strabane District Council area is 65% "Catholic" yet "only" 40% consider themselves "Irish Only"  Only 20% of people on NI have Irish passports with nearly 60% holding British.

I disagree. Simple fact is most people are disengaged from politics and identity issues and are content enough to use an NI regional identity, especially when it's so all pervasive - makes it the easy non-controversial choice. The passport thing is just a continuation of when it was cheaper and easier to obtain, most people I know outside my own family have one. Sure look at your man O Muireagáin, SFer and Irish language activist deported from Israel a few years ago - still living it down that he was on a British passport.

Belfast in 2011 census gives Catholics at 48.58%. In the same year SF & SDLP received 48.5% of the vote for Belfast City Council. Unionists will concentrate on the 'Northern Irish' identity now to counter the fact that they are no longer in a majority and I'd have no doubt that's why this question was placed on the census for the first time. However the fact is we are now in a period of double-minority and there'll never be a unionist majority in the six counties again. That's a good news day for me.

So based on that, when do you foresee a referendum?

[brokencrossbar1]

I think the question on national identity is more relevant.  I have to admit I'm surprised that 21% view themselves as "NI Only".  I'd have guessed at somewhere between 10%-15%.  I'd have estimated somewhere in the low 30%s would have classed themselves as "Irish Only", so IMO 25% is surprisingly low. E.g. Strabane District Council area is 65% "Catholic" yet "only" 40% consider themselves "Irish Only"  Only 20% of people on NI have Irish passports with nearly 60% holding British.

I disagree. Simple fact is most people are disengaged from politics and identity issues and are content enough to use an NI regional identity, especially when it's so all pervasive - makes it the easy non-controversial choice. The passport thing is just a continuation of when it was cheaper and easier to obtain, most people I know outside my own family have one. Sure look at your man O Muireagáin, SFer and Irish language activist deported from Israel a few years ago - still living it down that he was on a British passport.

Belfast in 2011 census gives Catholics at 48.58%. In the same year SF & SDLP received 48.5% of the vote for Belfast City Council. Unionists will concentrate on the 'Northern Irish' identity now to counter the fact that they are no longer in a majority and I'd have no doubt that's why this question was placed on the census for the first time. However the fact is we are now in a period of double-minority and there'll never be a unionist majority in the six counties again. That's a good news day for me.

So based on that, when do you foresee a referendum?

Probably around about April 24th 2016

[AQMP]

I think the political/identity disengagement point is a good one, e.g. there are over 100,000 Irish passport holders in NI who don't vote for either SF or SDLP (now some of these passport holders will be under voting age).

[AQMP]

I think the question on national identity is more relevant.  I have to admit I'm surprised that 21% view themselves as "NI Only".  I'd have guessed at somewhere between 10%-15%.  I'd have estimated somewhere in the low 30%s would have classed themselves as "Irish Only", so IMO 25% is surprisingly low. E.g. Strabane District Council area is 65% "Catholic" yet "only" 40% consider themselves "Irish Only"  Only 20% of people on NI have Irish passports with nearly 60% holding British.

I disagree. Simple fact is most people are disengaged from politics and identity issues and are content enough to use an NI regional identity, especially when it's so all pervasive - makes it the easy non-controversial choice. The passport thing is just a continuation of when it was cheaper and easier to obtain, most people I know outside my own family have one. Sure look at your man O Muireagáin, SFer and Irish language activist deported from Israel a few years ago - still living it down that he was on a British passport.

Belfast in 2011 census gives Catholics at 48.58%. In the same year SF & SDLP received 48.5% of the vote for Belfast City Council. Unionists will concentrate on the 'Northern Irish' identity now to counter the fact that they are no longer in a majority and I'd have no doubt that's why this question was placed on the census for the first time. However the fact is we are now in a period of double-minority and there'll never be a unionist majority in the six counties again. That's a good news day for me.

So based on that, when do you foresee a referendum?

I've always held the view that a border referendum is a pointless waste of time and money.  Now based on these figures with just over half of Catholics seeing themselves as "Irish Only" it does not change my opinion.

[Ulick]

So based on that, when do you foresee a referendum?

Whenever SF have something that the DUP really want, most likely we'll have a date before the end of this Assembly term.

[Ulick]

I've always held the view that a border referendum is a pointless waste of time and money.  Now based on these figures with just over half of Catholics seeing themselves as "Irish Only" it does not change my opinion.

The border poll forces the two governments to detail what a United Ireland would look like - that is needed before anyone can seriously consider the idea. It will also force unionists to debate the merits of a United Ireland instead of resorting the facetious. It's quite possible a United Ireland could fully encompass a regional 'Northern Ireland' - we don't know until the date is set and the debate begins. One thing we do know is there will not be an option for an independent 'Northern Ireland' so those who marked themselves down as that in the census (mostly Catholics) will have to choose.