Brexit.

[armaghniac]

there's quite an impact in attracting inward investment. Currently there are EU grants for R&D which will expire, EU membership is a big part of getting those jobs in the north.

They can have new grants, and with more flexibility without EU rules, but an ability to export to the EU is an important part of the reason why companies come.

[armaghniac]

I wonder how is this Mayo bollix enjoying Brexit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I3eAyJkoHg

[seafoid]

This was a comment on the FT site

"Also, consequences usually have a kind of time-lapse. PFI contracts, or even the destabilisation of Iraq, might take a decade or more to become truly toxic, by which time the politicians involved will hope to have moved into the private sector.
With Brexit, the whole country might implode within about nine months. This is why the Tories are behaving like a besieged rat colony: they actually have to doing something and are being confronted with the novelty of immediate consequences. It's stating the obvious, but the conflict in negotiations is not a clash of national temperaments, but the atmosphere created when gung-ho carpetbaggers come up against patrician bureaucrats"

The EU are playing hard ball.  It is going to hurt voters.
The Brits have to come up with a solution for NI in a couple of weeks. They don't have a notion.

Brexit is like voting for Trump. It is emotional. It is a fantasy. The Eurosceptic fantasy is an economy similar to Victorian times.
They need to execute it before the voters join the dots.

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/nov/20/five-a-day-eating-targets-will-be-unaffordable-for-millions-after-brexit

[omaghjoe]

It totally will but if groups know that there is actually no money to claim from due to voting against it in first place I'd find it very amusing that they'd start a riot! Who will they riot against? Themselves?

Just sounds daft.. we won't fall apart and I can't honestly say that an actual border will be set up, the infrastructure road wise is too good to put a barrier on the road..

So let's wait and see before we get the rations out

Macro / Underlying reasons foster an environment for disorder and violence to occur...

I had a discussion here (LA) with a native about the Rodney King riots and he maintained the reason they occurred was lack of jobs and opportunity in the areas that the riots occurred. The poor economy lead to disenfranchised youth and along with that came drugs and gangs, that lead to Police brutality, that lead to a deep loathing within those communities of the police....The Rodney King case was a product of that environment it was just a matter of time....

It got me thinking about the similarities of the start of the troubles in the late 60s with the demise of shipbuilding in Belfast and of textiles in Derry. Tho Im sure the link has been made before.

Bottom line is when economies go up the left bad shit happens, people are bored, angry, and look for somebody to take out their frustrations and use up their surplus energy.

[Milltown Row2]

The economy has been shit for years, we've never really got out of the recession, has been highlighted by many on here, we've also not had a government for a long while ether and no out breaks of the troubles

Somebody mentioned the troubles! I really don't think that person lived during the troubles to understand what it was like to put that in

[haranguerer]

Given your history of puerile posts, there is little point explaining this to you Milltown, but I'll try.

If the UK put up a border, it will have to be manned by UK customs and British soldiers. Dissident republicans don't have much support not because of their ideology, but because they don't have a popular target. Put a border in manned by British forces and that changes.

If Brexit has the expected economic effect, especially along the border, there are going to be a lot of people disenchanted with a peace process which has left them still going through checkpoints and searched, NI still part of UK and further away from a UI than ever, and economically disenfranchised. Dissident republicanism gets a massive shot in the arm and popular support, attacks on the border increase, support increases in traditional republican areas in the cities again, army back on streets.

Why do you think the British are so keen to avoid a hard border? Their Brexit campaign was built on taking back control of borders, yet here they are saying they don't want one in Ireland?? The DUP certainly wouldn't complain too much (behind closed doors). The British can see the dangers. You're not able to see beyond the end of your nose (well done on being the only person to live through the Troubles by the way), so I don't expect you to be able to grasp this, but I do find it amusing that, when I pulled you about your Brexit view on another thread, you waited til I posted again so you could go after me. What a sad little man 

[haranguerer]

It totally will but if groups know that there is actually no money to claim from due to voting against it in first place I'd find it very amusing that they'd start a riot! Who will they riot against? Themselves?

Just sounds daft.. we won't fall apart and I can't honestly say that an actual border will be set up, the infrastructure road wise is too good to put a barrier on the road..

So let's wait and see before we get the rations out

These posts are quality, keep them up

[Milltown Row2]

Given your history of puerile posts, there is little point explaining this to you Milltown, but I'll try.

If the UK put up a border, it will have to be manned by UK customs and British soldiers. Dissident republicans don't have much support not because of their ideology, but because they don't have a popular target. Put a border in manned by British forces and that changes.

If Brexit has the expected economic effect, especially along the border, there are going to be a lot of people disenchanted with a peace process which has left them still going through checkpoints and searched, NI still part of UK and further away from a UI than ever, and economically disenfranchised. Dissident republicanism gets a massive shot in the arm and popular support, attacks on the border increase, support increases in traditional republican areas in the cities again, army back on streets.

Why do you think the British are so keen to avoid a hard border? Their Brexit campaign was built on taking back control of borders, yet here they are saying they don't want one in Ireland?? The DUP certainly wouldn't complain too much (behind closed doors). The British can see the dangers. You're not able to see beyond the end of your nose (well done on being the only person to live through the Troubles by the way), so I don't expect you to be able to grasp this, but I do find it amusing that, when I pulled you about your Brexit view on another thread, you waited til I posted again so you could go after me. What a sad little man 

Look when your view doesnt happen, what excuse will you use then?

So every road into the south will have a manned border controlled by the Armed forces and the army will be back on the streets in Belfast?

[seafoid]

The economy has been shit for years, we've never really got out of the recession, has been highlighted by many on here, we've also not had a government for a long while ether and no out breaks of the troubles

Somebody mentioned the troubles! I really don't think that person lived during the troubles to understand what it was like to put that in

The British input to the GFA was money to keep.things quiet. Brexit will hurt middle class people as well as the working class so there will be class tension on top of deflation. NI slipped into madness last time when people lost faith in the system. That can't happen again.

[haranguerer]

Look when your view doesnt happen, what excuse will you use then?

So every road into the south will have a manned border controlled by the Armed forces and the army will be back on the streets in Belfast?

Of course it mightn't happen - indeed it is much more likely not to happen than to happen. But it is a potential outcome as I said in my initial post, and being such a negative potential outcome, it has to be considered and measures taken to ensure it doesn't become a reality.

No-one can predict the future, there are many possible outcomes of any event. Do you not understand this?

[armaghniac]

Look when your view doesnt happen, what excuse will you use then?

So every road into the south will have a manned border controlled by the Armed forces and the army will be back on the streets in Belfast?

Of course it mightn't happen - indeed it is much more likely not to happen than to happen. But it is a potential outcome as I said in my initial post, and being such a negative potential outcome, it has to be considered and measures taken to ensure it doesn't become a reality.

No-one can predict the future, there are many possible outcomes of any event. Do you not understand this?

It stands to reason that if you have a peace settlement and one side reneges on it that no good will come of it. There is no need to take the risk.

[Milltown Row2]

Look when your view doesnt happen, what excuse will you use then?

So every road into the south will have a manned border controlled by the Armed forces and the army will be back on the streets in Belfast?

Of course it mightn't happen - indeed it is much more likely not to happen than to happen. But it is a potential outcome as I said in my initial post, and being such a negative potential outcome, it has to be considered and measures taken to ensure it doesn't become a reality.

No-one can predict the future, there are many possible outcomes of any event. Do you not understand this?

Throwing out stuff about the troubles starting over again potentially is something you'd see in daily papers! headline grabbers, like its going to be the worst winter ever!! Potentially could be used for a lot of things.. slightly over the top don't you think?

Look when your view doesnt happen, what excuse will you use then?

So every road into the south will have a manned border controlled by the Armed forces and the army will be back on the streets in Belfast?

Of course it mightn't happen - indeed it is much more likely not to happen than to happen. But it is a potential outcome as I said in my initial post, and being such a negative potential outcome, it has to be considered and measures taken to ensure it doesn't become a reality.

No-one can predict the future, there are many possible outcomes of any event. Do you not understand this?

It stands to reason that if you have a peace settlement and one side reneges on it that no good will come of it. There is no need to take the risk.

As for reneging on agreements, they have been doing that for years, he said she said shite talk form the ones on the Hill!

It's not a perfect peace but I'll take it over anything that we had in the past, as for Brexit its has the potential to be devastating and there is no positives anyone can take from it financially but I dont think we'll be going down the road of blowing each other up...

[haranguerer]

Judging from your irrelevant babbling I really don't think you're grasping the conversation.

[seafoid]

Would SF be better at looking after working class people than the DUP ? This will be a key determinant of what happens post Brexit imo. 
The UK is in a very dark place right now. Life expectancy will be falling soon. Poorer people can't afford healthy food and the NHS is being starved of money so people are dying earlier.