The SDLP

Started by ardmhachaabu, April 23, 2010, 09:32:25 PM

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trueblue1234

Quote from: Evil Genius on July 22, 2020, 04:34:54 PM
Quote from: Rois on July 22, 2020, 06:14:58 AM
EG, I enjoy reading your posts on this topic.
The socio-economic points you list as being a large part of why nationalists (and "other" I'd imagine) wouldn't vote for unity are valid but not insurmountable. I think the New Ireland Forum idea should be used to consider the realities and alternatives in a unification scenario (eg NICS pension scheme is run by NILGOSC and could continue as-is, like any other private investment fund). Let's find out how that could work. Prior to Brexit NI had successfully argued its case to get corp tax devolved, and developed its own business case to remove itself from the London teat, even if only in part. Take that a few steps further. A civic-led forum should explore the myths and realities.
Thank you.

As regards the socio-economic factor, yes, these could be surmounted as you say, but the task is harder than, say, 15 years ago than it is now, essentially for three reasons:
1. The Celtic Tiger is no longer roaring so loudly as previously, so Dublin must be less able/willing to take on the burden than before;
2. With the entry of so many new countries (plus the loss of the UK's contribution), the economic balance of the EU has changed, such that ROI is no longer a net financial beneficiary, nor is it likely to become one again any time soon;
3. Covid-19. No government anywhere in  the world is going to take on extra financial commitments it doesn't absolutely have to, including the one in Dublin. Whereas for better or worse, Westminster is stuck with NI and knows it.

Quote from: Rois on July 22, 2020, 06:14:58 AM
Your point on how nationalists are happy that under the GFA they can claim their Irishness grossly misunderstands the impact of Brexit and DUP identity nonsense on this group. Brexit has/will force us to be treated in many respects in the same way as Finchley or Great Yarmouth or Sunderland. You seemingly fail to see the impact this has and will have on nationalists who are being  forced into something by Britain.
If you tell me that I've got it wrong as to the reasons why a section of the Nationalist population in NI either wouldn't vote in a Referendum, or would vote to stay, then fair enough: you doubtless understand their thinking better than me.

But it still doesn't detract from my central thesis that they would still either abstain to vote to remain.

As for Brexit, the vote was in 2016, and has had only a limited effect on Nationalist thinking over a UI, and none whatever on Unionist thinking.

Proof of this comes in the various opinion polls which have been conducted since eg this one from October 2017
(https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2017/10/26/news/opinion-poll-finds-one-third-in-favour-irish-unity-1171518/), or the BelTel one I quoted previously, from February 2020.

There are polls that say differently. I mentioned Lord Ashcroft's survey - https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/ which ahs a 51% to 49% in favour.

Also the Lucis talks polls discuss the impact of Brexit and would appear to be significant. https://2514bea3-91c5-415b-a4d7-2b7f18f64d4f.filesusr.com/ugd/024943_c045b5bf2425450fb00275818eab9733.pdf

I think you are severely underestimating the impact of Brexit. Before it I never believed I would see a UI. Now I do.
Grammar: the difference between knowing your shit

five points

Why is Brexit so pivotal? With the Republic caught on the hook this week for €16 billion, I suspect that support for EU membership will wane down here over the next while as cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19 start to bite.

Franko

Quote from: five points on July 22, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
Why is Brexit so pivotal? With the Republic caught on the hook this week for €16 billion, I suspect that support for EU membership will wane down here over the next while as cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19 start to bite.

Yeah, that's not likely to happen any time soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html

When Irish people watch the "cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19" that the UK will inevitably introduce, it would take some snake oil salesman to convince them that the fault for this lies with the EU.


Rossfan

Would I be right in thinking that some people from the Nationalist side would have been content enough with the status quo in 2915 but Brexit and the DUPUDA trying to re establish 1 party rule during 2016 has sent them back to their roots and would vote overwhelmingly for a UI now?

As for 5 points....the right wingers are sputtering all over the place the last few days trying to convince themselves that we want to leave the EU.


Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

five points

Quote from: Franko on July 22, 2020, 05:17:29 PM
Quote from: five points on July 22, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
Why is Brexit so pivotal? With the Republic caught on the hook this week for €16 billion, I suspect that support for EU membership will wane down here over the next while as cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19 start to bite.

Yeah, that's not likely to happen any time soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html

When Irish people watch the "cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19" that the UK will inevitably introduce, it would take some snake oil salesman to convince them that the fault for this lies with the EU.

You know all those surveys tend to be paid for by the EU?

five points

Quote from: Rossfan on July 22, 2020, 05:27:51 PM
As for 5 points....the right wingers are sputtering all over the place the last few days trying to convince themselves that we want to leave the EU.

I didn't say that or anything like it. I did pose a question which nobody has yet answered. I'll wait.

Chief

Quote from: Rossfan on July 22, 2020, 05:27:51 PM
Would I be right in thinking that some people from the Nationalist side would have been content enough with the status quo in 2915 but Brexit and the DUPUDA trying to re establish 1 party rule during 2016 has sent them back to their roots and would vote overwhelmingly for a UI now?

As for 5 points....the right wingers are sputtering all over the place the last few days trying to convince themselves that we want to leave the EU.

That's a popular narrative - I.e. nationalists had forgotten themselves and were happy to be patted on the head.

Again, I think what they would have said in a Belfast telegraph survey and done in a real life border poll would have been (and will be) night and day.


Eamonnca1

Belfast Telegraph polls always skew to the unionist side.

Rois

https://uclspp.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0B5YWEzSSbGiuSF

Public consultation on referendum - l just saw this tonight. Needs a good bit of thought.

Franko

Quote from: five points on July 22, 2020, 05:30:12 PM
Quote from: Franko on July 22, 2020, 05:17:29 PM
Quote from: five points on July 22, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
Why is Brexit so pivotal? With the Republic caught on the hook this week for €16 billion, I suspect that support for EU membership will wane down here over the next while as cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19 start to bite.

Yeah, that's not likely to happen any time soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html

When Irish people watch the "cutbacks and tax hikes arising from Covid-19" that the UK will inevitably introduce, it would take some snake oil salesman to convince them that the fault for this lies with the EU.

You know all those surveys tend to be paid for by the EU?

Lol, a cracking response.  The Czechs must have stiffed them on the bill. 😂

armaghniac

Quote from: Evil Genius on July 22, 2020, 04:34:54 PM
As regards the socio-economic factor, yes, these could be surmounted as you say, but the task is harder than, say, 15 years ago than it is now, essentially for three reasons:
1. The Celtic Tiger is no longer roaring so loudly as previously, so Dublin must be less able/willing to take on the burden than before;
2. With the entry of so many new countries (plus the loss of the UK's contribution), the economic balance of the EU has changed, such that ROI is no longer a net financial beneficiary, nor is it likely to become one again any time soon;
3. Covid-19. No government anywhere in  the world is going to take on extra financial commitments it doesn't absolutely have to, including the one in Dublin. Whereas for better or worse, Westminster is stuck with NI and knows it.

The ROI economy remains the fastest growing in W. Europe, even this year it grew at 1.2% in Q4 despite being lockded down for the last fortnight. NI has little prospect of growing 1.2% in a year, so the gap is continuing to grow. EU contributions are a relatively small part of the budget and of course in a UI they would probably disappear for a few years. Covid is an issue, but please God Covid will be sorted this time next year by one of the 100+ vaccines and a UI is not going to happen in that timescale.



Quote from: Evil GeniusBrexit, the vote was in 2016, and has had only a limited effect on Nationalist thinking over a UI, and none whatever on Unionist thinking.

I tihink you underestimate the effect on nationalist and "middle of the road" thinking. In its geographic position the EU was an ideal entity for NI, a neutral body to conduct necessary coordination of practical matters on this island without bringing politics into it. The unionist population voted against the EU that was benefiting them in an attempt to overthrow the GFA. This made it clear to everyone else that NI had no future in its present configuration.

Your selective use of polls ignores the many that show a marked change after 2016, for example the Ashcroft poll


that said, the union is still safe among the OAPs.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rois

Quote from: Chief on July 22, 2020, 05:47:38 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 22, 2020, 05:27:51 PM
Would I be right in thinking that some people from the Nationalist side would have been content enough with the status quo in 2915 but Brexit and the DUPUDA trying to re establish 1 party rule during 2016 has sent them back to their roots and would vote overwhelmingly for a UI now?


That's a popular narrative - I.e. nationalists had forgotten themselves and were happy to be patted on the head.

Again, I think what they would have said in a Belfast telegraph survey and done in a real life border poll would have been (and will be) night and day.
There's truth in both of these in my experience - some nationalists wouldn't have pushed too hard for a border poll/UI before Brexit - though if it happened, I dare say they'd have voted with their hearts in favour. of a UI  The narrative has now changed with the Brexit vote in terms of how vocal and active this previously silent bunch are getting.  I count myself in this group. 
So the results of a border poll may not have been much different, but the determination/restlessness to bring it about has definitely strengthened. 

imtommygunn

I would feel exactly the same Rois. Brexit is a game changer for me. To me it should also show to unionists how little the DUP actually care about them and how it's all about themselves and feathering their own nests.

johnnycool

Quote from: imtommygunn on July 23, 2020, 08:21:37 AM
I would feel exactly the same Rois. Brexit is a game changer for me. To me it should also show to unionists how little the DUP actually care about them and how it's all about themselves and feathering their own nests.

I think we (nationalists) always knew the DUP feathered their nests but their dogma in wanting to align with the very right wing of the torys and even Aaron Banks and the likes should be a wake up call for unionists but as we haven't really felt the pain of Brexit as yet I think those types of unionists will look to their pockets and maybe consider a UI just like some small n nationalists who would maybe have wavered slightly on a UI will be reinforced.

Shinners should be out with their appeasement rhetoric to at least attempt to win them over, but then Martina and Francie will open their gobs...

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: imtommygunn on July 23, 2020, 08:21:37 AM
I would feel exactly the same Rois. Brexit is a game changer for me. To me it should also show to unionists how little the DUP actually care about them and how it's all about themselves and feathering their own nests.

As if that will make a difference. They still vote for IPJ in their droves to despite all his antics. Neighbours of my parents in SB who seem on face value moderate at the 2017 GE said they were voting DUP to keep SF out. SF didnt have a hope in that seat. UUP and Alliance were standing but didnt get a mention. Of course the real reason was DUP pengelly was still prefereable even than moderate SDLP in their minds and in that election it worked