The SDLP

Started by ardmhachaabu, April 23, 2010, 09:32:25 PM

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Rossfan

Sure we all know Unionists (i.e. union to GB for now, England/Wales later) won't vote for a UI.
They wouldn't be Unionists then.
But they are not the majority any more.
The outcome will be decided by the "others".
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Main Street

#556
Quote from: Evil Genius on July 22, 2020, 12:20:01 AM
Quote from: Chief on July 21, 2020, 11:14:30 PM
I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.
I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!
So EG essentially you are saying that there are no hopes of negotiation about a settlement path to  UI that would gain general acceptance among Unionists,  striking a sword to  Varadkar's "I have a UI dream". That NI on its own is not a viable concern and is addicted to the substantial British Gov subsidy. That it comes down to a numbers game. Should 50% plus one vote for a UI in a referendum, then and only then would you (Unionists) accept the majority opinion and sit down to negotiate identity issues with a helping of a  piece of the EU Central Bank pie, OR refuse  to -  instead engage in riots, burn stuff and general mayhem.

Eamonnca1

#557
This is why I talk about persuading "northern Protestants" rather than persuading "unionists" about the benefits of a UI. And they're not a monolithic block, there are plenty of nuances within northern Protestants, you only have to see the sheer number of churches they belong to.

Here are (roughly) the main groups as I see them from across the spectrum:


  • Dizzies - The Dissident Republican types who are as fervent in their hatred for all things British as in their love for a British soccer team called Celtic, and aren't averse to doing things the old fashioned way using brute force
  • Chuckies - The boys that support SF like they're a football team and whose command of the Irish language is limited to one republican slogan, but don't want to reignite the Troubles
  • Stoops - Middle-of-the-road nationalists who consider getting a few street lights installed on their road to be a more immediate priority than big constitutional changes.
  • Ex-pat paddies - Fenians that moved to England for uni and didn't come back, but could still cast a proxy vote
  • Boat non-rockers - 1st & 2nd generation immigrants who just want a quiet life and would be reluctant to cause any trouble that would be brought about by big constitutional changes
  • Fence-sitters - A new but rare breed who was raised in the integrated education sector and may be open to persuasion either way
  • Zombies - Political illiterates who wouldn't know the DUP from Interflora and wouldn't know how to vote even if they wanted to
  • Ex-pat unionists - Prods who went to England for uni and didn't come back, probably willing to cast a proxy vote
  • Rugby fans and garden center types - Small u unionists who won't be voting for a UI any time soon but aren't going to put up a fight if it does happen
  • Jaffas - Newsletter-reading no-surrender-fear-God-honor-the-Queen types who don't recognise the democratic mandate of anyone who plays football on a Sunday or doesn't accept the Lord Jesus Christ (TM) as their saviour
  • Blackmen - Like Jaffas but with a bit more money behind them. Too polite to advertise their bitterness in public.
  • Pallet-burners - Will watch an orange parade if the 11th Night hangover isn't too bad, and is hoarse from roaring with delight when the flames reached as high as the effigy of the pope and the tricolour
  • Orange Gaeilgeoirs - Speak Irish better than half the Falls Road, probably signing up to join that East Belfast GAA team as we speak, open to Irish culture if not nationalism, but still very much protestant and very much unionist.

You could probably slice it up a bit finer than that. The goal should be not just to single out who in there you can persuade to support a UI. The goal should also be to persuade as many people as possible to accept reunification if it happens, even if they disagree with it, and not to sign another Ulster Covenant in their own blood vowing to fight back against it using weapons shipped in from the rogue state de jour (which in today's case would probably be Russia).

armaghniac

The bottom line is that the unionist vote is now in the 42-43% range and even a few of those are open to persuasion. Polls re Brexit showed that many of the rest are influenced by the detail. As we have seen in Scotland, which actually is in Britain, the present London regime does tend to drive centrifugal tendencies. Unification is like electric cars, you might not think the electric car adds up today but you expect not to be buying many more fossil fuel driven ones. But while eco crowd might say we should all buy electric cars now and range etc will improve in time, people want the range improved first and the charging infrastructure in place, then they'll buy the car. Likewise the 'Greens' want a UI now and work it out afterwards, but people won't buy that.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rois

EG, I enjoy reading your posts on this topic.
The socio-economic points you list as being a large part of why nationalists (and "other" I'd imagine) wouldn't vote for unity are valid but not insurmountable. I think the New Ireland Forum idea should be used to consider the realities and alternatives in a unification scenario (eg NICS pension scheme is run by NILGOSC and could continue as-is, like any other private investment fund). Let's find out how that could work. Prior to Brexit NI had successfully argued its case to get corp tax devolved, and developed its own business case to remove itself from the London teat, even if only in part. Take that a few steps further. A civic-led forum should explore the myths and realities.

Your point on how nationalists are happy that under the GFA they can claim their Irishness grossly misunderstands the impact of Brexit and DUP identity nonsense on this group. Brexit has/will force us to be treated in many respects in the same way as Finchley or Great Yarmouth or Sunderland. You seemingly fail to see the impact this has and will have on nationalists who are being  forced into something by Britain.

imtommygunn

Brexit changes everything IMO. It could be a game changer. I think Johnson changes a lot too. To me he's the worst pm in my life and is a dangerous man to all bar his cronies. This in itself also would swing a lot of moderate people.

Chief

#561
Quote from: Evil Genius on July 22, 2020, 12:20:01 AM
Quote from: Chief on July 21, 2020, 11:14:30 PM
I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.
I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!

Great post - Weirdly enough I think I've been misunderstood and perfectly understood all at the one time.

I agree unionists are British, believe wholeheartedly in the union, and therefore for intrinsic emotional reasons will never be persuaded of a UI regardless of economics, regional assemblies etc.

Therefore - sadly and depressingly - the NI state is reduced to a numbers game. And you are right, all the forums, meetings etc won't make a blind bit of difference to those who feel British - it wouldn't move the needle for me in terms of  my Irishness, so why would anyone assume the Britishness of unionism is any less dearly held?

50%+1 is all that is needed to deliver Unity - for those that want Unity this is the goal. It's what was agreed in 1998 and is the only show in town.

Where economics, admin etc come in, and where they are important in a UI context, is in reassuring unionists in the same way the GFA reassured nationalists - I.e. identity etc will be accepted and protected within the state. When 50%+1 is reached every Irish person should break their backs pursuing this effort, as the success of the unified state relies on it.

And guess what - it still won't be enough for every unionist out there and there will inevitably be terrorists that will have to be faced down by the new Irish state.

That reassurance only kicks in though when the border poll is called and won. Up and until then, unionism's self interests, by its very etymological definition, is best served in a Union with GB.

Therefore, acknowledging all of the above, the order of proceeding should be:

- Win the border poll to deliver the new state - I.e. 50%+1
- Then through a (long) process of engagement, make the constitutional and economic arrangements that secure the future of the new state and which protect Britishness for unionism - incredibly important not to repeat the mistakes NI made after it's formation.
- Face down any terrorism that flares up as a reaction to the new state

The whole thing relies on a poll being called and won in the first instance though.

JPGJOHNNYG

I keep seeing the NHS being mentioned as an obstruction to a UI. Why? Have people short memories. Before Covid kicked in the NHS was never out of the news in NI for the ridiculous number of people on lengthy waiting lists. The NHS esp in NI is in serious trouble

Rois

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 22, 2020, 09:25:39 AM
The NHS esp in NI is in serious trouble
Wholeheartedly agree. 

imtommygunn

Quote from: Rois on July 22, 2020, 09:28:00 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 22, 2020, 09:25:39 AM
The NHS esp in NI is in serious trouble
Wholeheartedly agree.

The number of ICU beds we have here is frightening. 95 in total and 60 are used. If the outbreak they predicted had happened with coronavirus , or if it does happen yet, we'd be in big big trouble.

Rois

We also have too many hospitals and too much real estate taking up funds.  Bengoa had many suggestions that were not implemented, and it's falling down around us.  C-19 has helped in showing people that reform can be achieved when the push/immediate need is there.  Therefore changing how it works in a UI context is not unimaginable and could lead to serious improvements. 

johnnycool

Quote from: Rois on July 22, 2020, 09:38:38 AM
We also have too many hospitals and too much real estate taking up funds.  Bengoa had many suggestions that were not implemented, and it's falling down around us.  C-19 has helped in showing people that reform can be achieved when the push/immediate need is there.  Therefore changing how it works in a UI context is not unimaginable and could lead to serious improvements.

No local politician is going to close the Mater, Lagan Valley and or the Ulster Hospital or the City hospital so expect the usual wastage and inefficiency.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: johnnycool on July 22, 2020, 09:42:09 AM
Quote from: Rois on July 22, 2020, 09:38:38 AM
We also have too many hospitals and too much real estate taking up funds.  Bengoa had many suggestions that were not implemented, and it's falling down around us.  C-19 has helped in showing people that reform can be achieved when the push/immediate need is there.  Therefore changing how it works in a UI context is not unimaginable and could lead to serious improvements.

No local politician is going to close the Mater, Lagan Valley and or the Ulster Hospital or the City hospital so expect the usual wastage and inefficiency.

Exactly, but 5 hospitals in such a small geographical area is a joke

mouview

Quote from: Evil Genius on July 22, 2020, 12:20:01 AM
Quote from: Chief on July 21, 2020, 11:14:30 PM
I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.
I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

etc.

A good and reasoned post, but can you ever explain why you want to belong to an 'edifice' that is almost utterly ignorant and indifferent to your existence or fate, and one which is in itself pulling asunder through a bonkers-Brexit sense of exceptionalism and nationalism? When the DUP went 'confidence and supply' with the Tories in 2017, a lot of the British press scarcely knew who they were and called them 'Irish'. At least if you 'turn your head south' you'd be more assured of a warmer welcome.

armaghniac

Quote from: Chief on July 22, 2020, 07:56:51 AM
Therefore, acknowledging all of the above, the order of proceeding should be:

- Win the border poll to deliver the new state - I.e. 50%+1
- Then through a (long) process of engagement, make the constitutional and economic arrangements that secure the future of the new state and which protect Britishness for unionism - incredibly important not to repeat the mistakes NI made after it's formation.
- Face down any terrorism that flares up as a reaction to the new state

The whole thing relies on a poll being called and won in the first instance though.

So, Chief, what strategy do you have to reach 50%+1?
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B