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Messages - Estimator

#1111
General discussion / Re: Wimbledon 2013
July 08, 2013, 04:07:23 PM
He will probably never get an easier run to a final. 

B Becker - Unseeded
Yen-Hsun Lu - Unseeded
T Robredo - 32
M Youzhny - 20
F Verdasco - Unseeded
J Janowicz - 24
N Djokovic - 1

Djokovic is the only player inside the top 20 that he had to play.
#1112
Terry McFlynn
This guy has made a good career for himself. Played for the Swa' and St Pat's Maghera.
#1113
General discussion / Re: Teachers get it handy!
June 24, 2013, 10:34:23 AM
Quote from: Gaffer on June 24, 2013, 07:04:27 AM
It s not an extra 2500 per annul.

Teaching Allowances start at £1,847 for TA1 and move up to TA5: £11,911
#1114
Derry (v Down): Eoin McNicholl; Gerard O'Kane, Chrissy McKaigue, Ryan Scott; Charlie Kielt, Mark Lynch, Sean Leo McGoldrick; Patsy Bradley, Ryan Bell; Aidan McAlynn, James Kielt, Enda Lynn; Benny Heron, Eoin Bradley, Coilin Devlin.

Substitutes: Thomas Mallon, Declan Brown, Dermot McBride, Brian McCallion, Conor McAtamney, Kevin Johnston, Bliain Gormley, Declan Mullan, Emmett Mc Guckin, Lee Kennedy, Aaron Devlin
#1115
Are the likes of Niall McKenna, Gavin Teague or Ciaran Gervin anywhere near that panel?
#1116
Quote from: rrhf on May 06, 2013, 05:31:11 PM
Them boys subsequently made their debut V Mayo in late October and became instant stars.  Had they been there in 89 they would have lit the place up.  A dirty Armagh outfit cleaved them in the championship in 90, 91 after a replay, 92 was Derry after the league final, 93 they lost I believe to Derry again in Omagh to a controversial Damian Cassidy goal.  94 they tore up Ulster until they hit a cracking down team in the final.  95 they should have won the ai but for Paddy Russell, 96 was like 89 Willie Joe all over again - this time we wore the turbans.     
91 Derry beat Tyrone in Omagh. Cassidy scored the goal that day. Your minor side celebrated like they had won the All-Ireland when they beat Derry.
92 Derry beat Tyrone in Celtic Park. All ticket affair. Gary Coleman scored an own goal.
93 Armagh beat Tyrone in a replay.
#1117
Foes. Didn't like them when they were unsuccessful. Didn't like them when they won things. Don't like them now.  Nothing has changed
#1118
GAA Discussion / Re: Spitting
March 12, 2013, 04:41:44 PM
Quote from: Nally Stand on March 12, 2013, 12:27:23 PM
Quote from: Tubberman on March 12, 2013, 12:22:45 PM
Quote from: Nally Stand on March 12, 2013, 12:10:49 PM
Quote from: Onion Bag on March 12, 2013, 12:00:24 PM
Nally, spitting and name calling (no matter what the name it is) cannot be in the same category,

If Paul Galvin had spat on a cookstown player, would love to have heard your response,

Sectarian abuse is not just "name calling" in the same way as racist abuse is not just "name calling". Spitting, sectarian abuse and racist abuse are three actions that are well beneath contempt.

Hang on, sectarian abuse? Between two Irish, Catholic (assumption on my part), GAA players?

In 2011 when Dublin hammered Tyrone, as we were walking up Jones Rd, a crowd of Dubs behind us started singing and jeering and shouting at us to "f**k off back to England" (yes, England) and calling us "black b**tards". Stupidity is no excuse. Sectarian abuse is sectarian abuse.

Clones. 2003. Derry v Tyrone. Drawn game.  I left the ground bang on the final whistle and jogged through the town to get back to the car and away out of Clones quickly. As I passed a drinking establishment on the opposite side of the road to the Creighton.  Two hallions were vacating the premises.  Both hallions were wearing Tyrone jerseys. Both looked like they had never seen the inside of St Tiernach's park.  Upon spying me in my Derry jersey, one of the hallions roared that identical comment "f**k off back to England". Along with a few other choice words about 'British' and 'London' was mentioned as well.  The rest of it was pretty incoherent.  The England commment always stood out as being completely bizarre.  I don't think they were being sectarian.  The two hallions are from Tyrone and obviously are not well educated.
#1119
From The Guardian

Chelsea say case is closed but keep their counsel on Mark ClattenburgIt is wrong to demonise Chelsea but club should at least acknowledge the impact on traumatised referee

Daniel Taylor The Guardian, Thursday 22 November 2012
Mark Clattenburg has suffered a lot since he was accused of racially abusing Chelsea's Mikel John Obi.
To put it into context, the player making the allegation speaks barely a word of English. Ramires, brought up in Barra do Piraí, understands the basics – hello, goodbye and so on – and has come to know all the usual football phrases, but little more. Journalists interviewing him use a translator even for the more basic questions. David Luiz performs the role for Ramires in the Chelsea dressing room, where the Brazilian is regarded as a fairly straightforward, decent guy.

His accusation was that Mark Clattenburg said: "Shut up you monkey," to Mikel John Obi, and he has stuck by it even when it became apparent nobody within earshot heard anything of the sort. Nobody, it turns out, can even pinpoint a moment when Ramires might have misheard something. There was no "shut up Mikel", or anything similar.

All that can be said with great certainty is that Clattenburg has suffered the consequences. Goodness knows what it has been like for him over the past three and a half weeks and, at the very least, Chelsea might have offered a few sympathetic words in the statement they put out 40 minutes or so before getting on with the business of Rafael Benítez's entrance.

Nothing too fancy, just some form of recognition about the human suffering that has been endured.

Clattenburg's statement described it as "the most stressful time of my professional life", using the emotive language that is rarely found in releases from Premier League HQ. "To know you were innocent of something but that there was the opportunity for it to wreck your career was truly frightening," he added. Chelsea's contained a few lines explaining their position, finishing with a sentence about their commitment to working with referees, but not a single word about the man they had accused of racially abusing their player.

"The club accepts the case is now concluded," it says. Which is a lot different to accepting he didn't do it.

He did not, of course, and the verdict should be of little surprise to anyone who has followed this case closely. Few people believed it at the time and, as more details have emerged, it became increasingly clear the evidence was thin, to say the least. The FA's investigators took 11 witness statements and nobody corroborated Ramires's story. They studied previously unseen television footage of the relevant match, Chelsea's 3-2 defeat against Manchester United, and it showed nothing. Clattenburg had key witnesses in the two linesmen and fourth official who were linked to him by microphone. If this were a police matter and the Crown Prosecution Service had allowed it to get to court, we would be talking about a flagrant misuse of taxpayers' money.

Yet it is wrong, too, to demonise Chelsea. They will be braced for a good kicking. It has become their default position more times than they will care to remember and, yes, it is clear they have made mistakes. But football is so quick to look for guilty parties it rarely stops to consider that maybe it is not quite that straightforward, as messy and unsatisfactory as it all is. What, after all, were Chelsea supposed to do if one of their players was adamant he had heard a team-mate being racially abused?

Ramires was so convinced it persuaded an incensed Mikel to go looking for Clattenburg, storming into the referee's room in the bowels of Stamford Bridge and causing the scene that has left the Nigerian facing his own FA misconduct charge.

Two lines jump out in the FA's statement. The first is that "the player and club were correct in reporting the matter". The second states Ramires made the allegation "in good faith", pointing out "it is entirely possible for a witness to be genuinely mistaken and convincing in his belief".

Clattenburg, unfortunately for him, has had to live through the consequences but the alternative, from Chelsea's perspective, was to keep it internal. Hush it up, in other words. What, then, if it had come out?

Chelsea, remember, have a culture of leaks. Just imagine, on the back of the John Terry affair, if it had got out that they had tried to suppress another racism story. It would have been a scandal.

This is not to say that Chelsea's conduct is not deserving of scrutiny when, to cite one example, someone in a position of power ordered that the story should be briefed. Clattenburg touches upon this in his statement, pointing out "the ramifications of allegations of this nature" being made public before the formal process. He has spent a large part of the past month behind closed curtains at home, with television crews camped on the lawn. His doorbell has been pressed first thing in the morning and last thing at night. The same for his relatives, too.

He will not sue because it would mean having to give up his career, or at least put it on hold, when there is still every chance he will be officiating at the World Cup in 2014, but Alan Leighton of the referees' union Prospect is adamant that Clattenburg deserves some form of compensation.

Clattenburg has, for starters, lost thousands of pounds in match fees. But this is about more than those blank weekends. "Compensation for the stress," Leighton says. "Compensation for walking down the street and knowing people are thinking: 'Aah, there goes the racist referee.' His reputation has been trashed." It is no surprise that Chelsea have already indicated they will turn down the request and will quickly move on.

Clattenburg wants to do the same now, but there will be conditions attached. His bosses will keep him off Chelsea games for the immediate future. He can probably live with that but it also means that, if Chelsea reach a Wembley final this season, his chances of refereeing it are somewhere between minimal and nonexistent. "I hope no referee has to go through this in the future," he says
#1120
Hurling Discussion / Re: Na Cait v Gaillimh, AIF 9 Sept
September 10, 2012, 07:55:45 PM
Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on September 10, 2012, 04:48:32 PM
Quote from: Franko on September 10, 2012, 04:41:46 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 10, 2012, 12:50:33 PM
Yes - definitely the correct percentage play, in my view, which is not something you often see chosen properly in the heat of competition.

There are two to five minutes left, depending on the ref.

He sores the penalty. Estimated probability - 80% (though that may be generous). KK nearly certainly win.
He misses the penalty. Estimated probability - 20%. The momentum and psychological advantage are handed to Galway. Galway more likely than KK to win.
He takes the point. Estimated probability - 100% for all intents and purpose. The momentum and psychological advantage stay with KK, with a good chance of a win and a probable worst case outcome of a draw.

Hardy I think you have omitted one of the most likely outcomes - Henry goes for a goal and the ball is deflected for either for a point or a 65.  Either way a point is as good as given.

When this is factored in I reckon he didn't actually play the percentages at all.

I said the same to the woman in front of me who was giving out about him going for goal from the early free on the 21. He put the resulting 65 wide.
I wonder if that was on his mind. He'd another 21yd free a couple of minutes before the penalty decision and opted for the point as well. On another day he could have taken 3goals.
#1121
General discussion / Re: Books
August 27, 2012, 08:35:10 PM
Quote from: Puckoon on August 27, 2012, 07:45:14 PM
I've been into the Reacher series for well over a decade now, one of my favourite characters - even if one or two of the books have ended kinda blah.

Watched the trailer for the movie last week and it is f-ing woejus looking.

One scene where as usual Reacher is surrounded by 3 or 4 big dudes all looking a piece of him and the camera cuts to short arse - clearly much much smaller than the 3 or 4 dudes and you're supposed to believe it's Reacher?

Might be sellable to someone who hasn't read the books but it's pure shite casting.
I think he says 'Remember you asked for this' as the four dudes surround him. Ridiculous. They might as well have given the part to Woody Allen or Danny DeVito!
#1122
General discussion / Re: Lance Armstrong
August 27, 2012, 08:25:20 PM
The case against Armstrong just leads to another set of questions. Should the authorities now pursue every winner of the TdF? LeMond won 3 titles, Indurain won 5 in a row, Contador was stripped of one title but allowed to keep another. Should these guys be hounded the same way as Armstrong? With drugs allegedly being rife in the sport should the Irish cyclists be looked at as well?
#1123
GAA Discussion / Re: Cork v Donegal Semi Final
August 26, 2012, 03:23:46 PM
Any links?
#1124
GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Tyrone
July 23, 2012, 10:48:53 AM
 Hostile crowd, posionous atmosphere, abuse, fans spitting venom... Welcome to any Derry v Tyrone match at Healy Park, Celtic Park, Clones or Casement.  Some people on here must not attend these games or are blind, deaf and dumb to the antics of their own fans. 

As for the Kerry tactics, Derry did exactly the same in 2006 in Omagh. Derry won by 6pts. Hub Hughes got sent off due to thumping Hinphey. Nothing was learned from that day with how to cope with that game plan.
#1125
GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Tyrone
July 22, 2012, 02:20:21 PM
Tyrone won the UMFC in '97 '98 and '01 which was the basis of the Senior winning sides in '03 '05 and '08.  But they also had victories at U21 level as well.  Tyrone won the UMFC in '03 '04 '07 '08 '10 and now '12. Where are those players? How come those sides haven't supplied the same amount of players that the previous teams did? Winning minor titles is important but no reflection of how the senior team will play in the future.