Well with the first provincial final over and Dublin likely to join Kerry in the quarterfinals in two weeks time, what have we learned so far this year?
I suppose Kerry's win yesterday was of no surprise but Kerry's full forward line of Geany, Donaghy and O'Donoghue sure will cause a lot of worry in the months ahead. Kerry looked strong at midfield too with Anthony Maher in fine form and Buckley doing well when he came in too.
Donegal and Monaghan were probably the biggest surprises of the summer so far with many expecting them to do a lot better this year. Tyrone looked amazing in their two games to date but you would have to wonder how much of that was down to their opponents. If they continue such form it will promote them as real contenders again which many in the media seem to be doing already.
Down however, will hold no fear of Tyrone and will try to outmuscle them like they did Monaghan.
Mayo yet again seem to be struggling in the earlier months of the summer and were far from convincing on Sat night v Derry who really put it up to them. A bit like Donegal who was dominating Ulster, Mayo have lost their way in Connacht but as we saw last year they can still rally around and get to the latter stages. 2010 was the last time they didn't make it to the AI semifinals & 2010 was the last time Donegal were not in an Ulster final.
Some people seem to think Galway could kick on this year and maybe go one step further than last year.
They seem to have found a better balance between attack and defence and it will depend who they meet in a quarterfinal, should they get that far.
Dublin of course are still most people's favourites and they continue to win easily playing a lot of their second string players. Most would expect a Dublin v Kerry final this year and judging by how they've both done so far that does indeed look likely.
Kildare will certainly give the Dubs more to think about that Westmeath did but I would expect Gavin to start bringing back his more regular starters and win with a bit to spare.
I think the one positive thing so far this year is that teams seem a bit more intent on attacking more and not focusing so much on blanket defence. The mark certainly seems to have a positive impact with a lot more teams kicking it long to their big men in midfield which in turn is making the game much more direct with less hand passing up the field.
Name your last 8.
There is clear daylight between Kildare and Meath. Monaghan were disappointing. Mayo are probably finished. Tipp didn't follow up. Down surprised a lot of people.
I find myself watching less and less of the c'ship year on year. It really is one big yawn. Too much live matches and a serious lack of competitive action combined with a really stupid and mind numbing format.
I think you'll find it' "Super 8" Fuzzman!!
Quote from: BennyCake on July 03, 2017, 02:28:19 PM
I find myself watching less and less of the c'ship year on year. It really is one big yawn. Too much live matches and a serious lack of competitive action combined with a really stupid and mind numbing format.
If you aren't watching it how do you know its one big yawn?
As always and in every competition there has been a lot of one sided games but no more than usual. The football to me has had a bit more emphasis on attacking football and pushing up on kickouts which has been good. There's been a few shocks along the way with Down taking out Monaghan and Galway beating Mayo. It's been good to see an obvious improvement in the likes of Kildare and Down. Tyrone also played some excellent football in dismantling Donegal who were many peoples favourites entering the game.
I'd say it's been at least as good as most championship years and there is lots of interesting games over the next few weeks. This Saturdays qualifiers have a lot of games that could go either way.
The one worry is that perhaps Dublin and Kerry could have pulled well clear of everyone else but it's too early to conclude that. Two or three teams looking capable of potentially putting it up to them.
Seems like Dublin again, main challenge from Kerry and Tyrone. Mayo + Donegal seem to be fading (tho this time last year Mayo were fortunate vs Fermanagh, and still could have won Sam in the end)
After two matches
Tyrone have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.23 +20
Kerry have scored 2.41 and conceded 1.27 +17
Dublin have scored 4.48 and conceded 0.17 +43
After one match
Galway have scored 0.15 and conceded 1.11 +1
I'd hazard a guess that the last 8 will be
Dublin, Galway, Tyrone and Kerry
Kildare, Monaghan, Mayo and Down
Kerry will probably get Monaghan in quarters and Galway in the semi as another easy route to the final.
Quote from: Fuzzman on July 03, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
After two matches
Tyrone have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.23 +20
Kerry have scored 2.41 and conceded 1.27 +17
Dublin have scored 4.48 and conceded 0.17 +43
After one match
Galway have scored 0.15 and conceded 1.11 +1
I'd hazard a guess that the last 8 will be
Dublin, Galway, Tyrone and Kerry
Kildare, Monaghan, Mayo and Down
Kerry will probably get Monaghan in quarters and Galway in the semi as another easy route to the final.
Monaghan are on the Ulster/Leinster side of the draw. So them Kildare and Down can't all make it to the quarter finals. Kerry therefore cant get them either. Kerry will be looking at most likely Mayo in the quarter final with Galway playing Donegal or Meath.
Quote from: Redhand Santa on July 03, 2017, 04:06:17 PM
Quote from: Fuzzman on July 03, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
After two matches
Tyrone have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.23 +20
Kerry have scored 2.41 and conceded 1.27 +17
Dublin have scored 4.48 and conceded 0.17 +43
After one match
Galway have scored 0.15 and conceded 1.11 +1
I'd hazard a guess that the last 8 will be
Dublin, Galway, Tyrone and Kerry
Kildare, Monaghan, Mayo and Down
Kerry will probably get Monaghan in quarters and Galway in the semi as another easy route to the final.
Monaghan are on the Ulster/Leinster side of the draw. So them Kildare and Down can't all make it to the quarter finals. Kerry therefore cant get them either. Kerry will be looking at most likely Mayo in the quarter final with Galway playing Donegal or Meath.
If Kildare and Down lose their provincial finals, it is likely that kildare will have to play Monaghan in round 4 If Monghan get that far) as Down will be kept apart from them if possible. So I think it's unlikely that both Kildare and Monaghan will make it to the Qtrs.
So my prediction (wishful thinking with Roscommon but one lucky win/nice qualifier draw is all we need!):
Kerry (I'm definitely right here!)
Dublin
Tyrone
Mayo
Galway
Roscommon
Monaghan
Tipperary
If Down win ulster, Ill put them in there instead of Tipperary
If kildare win Leinster they'll be there instead of Monaghan
Quote from: Fuzzman on July 03, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
After two matches
Tyrone have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.23 +20
Kerry have scored 2.41 and conceded 1.27 +17
Dublin have scored 4.48 and conceded 0.17 +43
After one match
Galway have scored 0.15 and conceded 1.11 +1
Ros scored 2-23 conceded 1-9. +17.
Qtr Finalists
Ros Dublin Kerry Tyrone to be joined by
Mayowestros Galway Kildare and Down.
As most teams are actually attacking it has made the cship more enjoyable (bar the hidings for some teams).
The bastardised version of basketball is thankfully becoming less frequent.
If we can get rid of the short kick out or make it travel at least past a 30m line it will make the game even better.
Looks like ye have high hopes for Connacht this year lads.
Maybe Roscommon v Down
Galway v Dublin
Mayo v Kerry
Tyrone v Kildare
Rossie v Galway semi with Mayo v Tyrone in the other one
Semis are Connacht Champions ( or team that beats them) v Munster Champions (or...).
So Ros v Kerry
Dublin v Tyrone
Ros to beat Dublin in the Final :P
Quote from: Fuzzman on July 03, 2017, 04:44:30 PM
Looks like ye have high hopes for Connacht this year lads.
Maybe Roscommon v Down
Galway v Dublin
Mayo v Kerry
Tyrone v Kildare
Rossie v Galway semi with Mayo v Tyrone in the other one
Those matchups can't work out as far as I can see.
I presume you think Down will lose the Ulster Final, that means the only team we could play in the 1/4 finals (if we got that far) would be Dublin. Galway (presuming you have them losing Connacht) will have to play Kerry in the 1/4 final. So it would be:
Dublin v Down
Tyrone v Kildare
Roscommon v Mayo
Kerry v Galway
For what it's worth, I think the final eight will be
Dublin
Kerry
Galway
Tyrone
Down
Kildare
Mayo
Donegal
The A side of the draw is definitely easier and Monaghan/Cavan could easily be there instead of Down.
Quote from: Fuzzman on July 03, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
After two matches
Tyrone have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.23 +20
Kerry have scored 2.41 and conceded 1.27 +17
Dublin have scored 4.48 and conceded 0.17 +43
After one match
Galway have scored 0.15 and conceded 1.11 +1
I'd hazard a guess that the last 8 will be
Dublin, Galway, Tyrone and Kerry
Kildare, Monaghan, Mayo and Down
Kerry will probably get Monaghan in quarters and Galway in the semi as another easy route to the final.
After 2 games Kildare scored 3-37 and conceded 1-20 +23
Nothing to scoff at even if the oppostition was diabolical.
Yeah Kildare are in with a chance if they do what Down did and show no fear of Dublin or whoever they meet.
Interesting article this week from Darragh O'Se in the Irish Times
Sitting in the crowd in Killarney on Sunday, it was very obvious just how much of a running game football has become. In Kerry, we'd like you to think we're the last keepers of the flame when it comes to kicking the ball but the reality is any team who tried to get by these days through mainly kicking the ball just wouldn't last very long. The game is about running now – hard, fast, clever running to break down defences and make space for your scorers. The strongest teams are the ones who can do it best and keep it up longest.
Cork weren't at the races on Sunday at all. The only times they made any inroads into the Kerry defence, it was down to their running game. Paul Kerrigan, Mark Collins and Ian Maguire were able to do it occasionally and Cork made chances off the back of that hard running each time. When I saw them do that – and get joy from it – two thoughts sprang to mind.
One, when it's done right, it's almost impossible to stop. If a guy is running at you full-pelt with the ball, you have to do a fairly quick bit of thinking to work out what you're going to do about it. You're like Marsellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction, contemplating the ifs.
Possession is ten-tenths of the law. That's the thinking behind every serious team now
If he goes straight for me, how am I going to tackle him? If he goes past me, have I cover in behind? If he goes down, am I getting a black card? Meanwhile, he's coming at you at top speed and the inside forward is looping out around you for the shot. Lots of luck, gentlemen.
And two, Cork don't have the fitness to do it well enough for long enough. That was obvious to everyone who was in Killarney on Sunday. Whatever Cork have been doing since they came together at the end of last year, they either haven't done enough of it or it hasn't been geared towards this style of football. You could see a visible difference between the shape of some of them and the Kerry players. They haven't been built for this kind of game.
Possession is ten-tenths of the law. That's the thinking behind every serious team now. Since every team gets men behind the ball when they lose it, kicking it into a forest of bodies usually just isn't a clever strategy. You have to be so accurate – it makes more sense to hold onto it and move it around until the space opens up inside.
Watch how Dublin and Kerry move the ball. It's all fist-passing around the middle third until someone comes onto it at pace, almost running a rugby line. Be that Jack McCaffrey or James McCarthy for Dublin, or Peter Crowley or Mikey Geaney for Kerry – that injection of pace comes from behind and they pop it off to a James O'Donoghue or a Paul Mannion when they draw the opposition defence.
The reason it works so well is there's not a lot that defences can do about it. If Jack McCaffrey is running in at pace, you can't wave him through and you can't stick to your man. He'll go from the 45 to the penalty spot in under three seconds – you have an on-the-spot decision to make. You have to either go to him or be 100 per cent sure that someone has him covered. While you're making up your mind, the guy you're marking has moved into position.
I was sitting there watching Kieran Donaghy on Sunday full sure he wouldn't make it 70 minutes in that heat
Kerry's first three points on Sunday were scored without Cork getting a hand on the ball at any stage. For their first, David Moran caught the throw-in and ran right through the heart of the defence and laid off a handpass to O'Donoghue on the loop. For the next two, the Kerry inside forwards just tapped the initial ball down to a Kerry player sprinting past without even catching it. For the first, Mikey Geaney stuck it over from 30 yards out. For the second, Mark Griffin put O'Donoghue in again.
Éamonn Fitzmaurice ready to bring Kerry to a higher level
Kerry stick to the ritual by brushing aside Cork
Cork didn't know where to look. There wasn't even three minutes gone and Kerry were just completely rampant. And it was all based on a fast running game, on and off the ball.
People were telling me afterwards they thought Donnchadh Walsh had a poor game. I said they mustn't have been in the stadium if they thought that. The amount of running he did off the ball to make space for Paul Geaney and O'Donoghue inside was outrageous. Over and back and up and down, always with the purpose of drawing the Cork defence one way and leaving room for the scorers.
If you do that well enough, it makes room for successful kick-passing into the forwards. For Kerry's fourth point, they turned Cork over on their own 20-metre line. Kerry had eight or nine fellas back – Donnchadh was one of them. As soon as it was turned over, he turned and sprinted back up the pitch towards his usual wing forward position.
But when Kerry picked him out five or six passes later, he was at centre forward. He had run in an arc to leave the whole of the right wing of Kerry wide open, so that Kevin McCarthy had room to play a ball in to Paul Geaney out in front of his man. Only one result there. How often between now and September will Geaney get that room one-on-one inside? That was all down to Donnchadh Walsh's intelligent running.
I know it's no big insight to say the pace of the game now is ferocious but you can't really talk about the sport without touching on it. I look at the bigger guys now and wonder how they find a place in it. I was sitting there watching Kieran Donaghy on Sunday full sure he wouldn't make it 70 minutes in that heat.
But even someone like him is built slightly differently now than he was when I was playing. He moves out and around and back in to the edge of the square constantly, keeping defenders on their toes and moving them with him, again to make space for the other pair. And when it came right down to it, he was there to draw a couple of defenders under a high ball and set up the goal.
Or look at Aidan O'Shea playing for Mayo on Saturday night. Another huge man, another guy you'd think this sort of game would pass by. But he was Mayo's best player the other night, a calm head when they needed one, the one guy who seemed to be able to do the right thing when it looked like Mayo might be going out. And he looked in great shape for a player who was supposed to be carrying a groin injury.
I ran into the hurling legend Eamonn Cregan one of the nights recently and he was saying he was disappointed with the standard in football and hurling these days
That Mayo v Derry game was a perfect example of what I'm talking about. This running game takes so much out of you that when a team who is well versed in playing it in big games comes up against a team who is new to that level, fitness becomes a decisive factor. Derry just haven't played games at that intensity in recent years and on a day when Mayo's shooting was so bad it deserved to put an end to their summer, it was their fitness that got them through.
Go back to Chrissy McKaigue's shot with two minutes left in normal time for Derry. It went narrowly wide and as the Mayo goalie David Clarke went to kick out the ball, there was a Derry player down in front of the goal stretching out his calf. Lee Keegan collected a short kick-out and when he did, every Derry player was between him and the goal at the far end of the pitch. Derry shouldn't under any circumstances have conceded a goal from there.
But they were wrecked. They had four fellas within 30 yards of the Mayo goal and none of them were pressing up on the kick-out. Seamie O'Shea ran 40 yards with the ball up the right sideline – again, nobody near him – and played a one-two with Diarmuid O'Connor before kicking the ball as he crossed the Derry 45. It was a low ball into Cillian O'Connor, who flicked a pass to Conor Loftus for a great finish.
You have to hand it to Mayo, they pulled a goal out of the top drawer when nothing else would do. It was perfectly put together thanks to hard running by Seamie O'Shea especially and clever movement from Loftus, who left his man for dead to collect O'Connor's pass.
But they were able to do that because Derry were out on their feet. Not one Mayo player felt a Derry hand on him during the whole move. Fellas were going down with cramp, fellas were jogging back with their hands on their hips. They were in the red, with their lights flashing and steam coming out the sides.
They came back and got a goal soon after with a high ball into the square and you have to commend them for their courage. But Mayo are just more suited to this game right now than Derry, even with all their shooting problems.
On that, I saw a stat the other day that said Cillian O'Connor took 21 shots over the course of the game and that no other Mayo player took more than four. That's fine if he's scoring them but Mayo must know they need more variety than that. Yes, he's their best kicker but he's not 17 shots a game better than the next fella. Mayo need to work better shooting positions for more of their forwards if they're going to still be going in August.
Sitting in the crowd in Killarney on Sunday, it was very obvious just how much of a running game football has become. In Kerry, we'd like you to think we're the last keepers of the flame when it comes to kicking the ball but the reality is any team who tried to get by these days through mainly kicking the ball just wouldn't last very long. The game is about running now – hard, fast, clever running to break down defences and make space for your scorers. The strongest teams are the ones who can do it best and keep it up longest.
Cork weren't at the races on Sunday at all. The only times they made any inroads into the Kerry defence, it was down to their running game. Paul Kerrigan, Mark Collins and Ian Maguire were able to do it occasionally and Cork made chances off the back of that hard running each time. When I saw them do that – and get joy from it – two thoughts sprang to mind.
One, when it's done right, it's almost impossible to stop. If a guy is running at you full-pelt with the ball, you have to do a fairly quick bit of thinking to work out what you're going to do about it. You're like Marsellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction, contemplating the ifs.
Possession is ten-tenths of the law. That's the thinking behind every serious team now
If he goes straight for me, how am I going to tackle him? If he goes past me, have I cover in behind? If he goes down, am I getting a black card? Meanwhile, he's coming at you at top speed and the inside forward is looping out around you for the shot. Lots of luck, gentlemen.
And two, Cork don't have the fitness to do it well enough for long enough. That was obvious to everyone who was in Killarney on Sunday. Whatever Cork have been doing since they came together at the end of last year, they either haven't done enough of it or it hasn't been geared towards this style of football. You could see a visible difference between the shape of some of them and the Kerry players. They haven't been built for this kind of game.
Possession is ten-tenths of the law. That's the thinking behind every serious team now. Since every team gets men behind the ball when they lose it, kicking it into a forest of bodies usually just isn't a clever strategy. You have to be so accurate – it makes more sense to hold onto it and move it around until the space opens up inside.
Watch how Dublin and Kerry move the ball. It's all fist-passing around the middle third until someone comes onto it at pace, almost running a rugby line. Be that Jack McCaffrey or James McCarthy for Dublin, or Peter Crowley or Mikey Geaney for Kerry – that injection of pace comes from behind and they pop it off to a James O'Donoghue or a Paul Mannion when they draw the opposition defence.
The reason it works so well is there's not a lot that defences can do about it. If Jack McCaffrey is running in at pace, you can't wave him through and you can't stick to your man. He'll go from the 45 to the penalty spot in under three seconds – you have an on-the-spot decision to make. You have to either go to him or be 100 per cent sure that someone has him covered. While you're making up your mind, the guy you're marking has moved into position.
I was sitting there watching Kieran Donaghy on Sunday full sure he wouldn't make it 70 minutes in that heat
Kerry's first three points on Sunday were scored without Cork getting a hand on the ball at any stage. For their first, David Moran caught the throw-in and ran right through the heart of the defence and laid off a handpass to O'Donoghue on the loop. For the next two, the Kerry inside forwards just tapped the initial ball down to a Kerry player sprinting past without even catching it. For the first, Mikey Geaney stuck it over from 30 yards out. For the second, Mark Griffin put O'Donoghue in again.
Éamonn Fitzmaurice ready to bring Kerry to a higher level
Kerry stick to the ritual by brushing aside Cork
Cork didn't know where to look. There wasn't even three minutes gone and Kerry were just completely rampant. And it was all based on a fast running game, on and off the ball.
People were telling me afterwards they thought Donnchadh Walsh had a poor game. I said they mustn't have been in the stadium if they thought that. The amount of running he did off the ball to make space for Paul Geaney and O'Donoghue inside was outrageous. Over and back and up and down, always with the purpose of drawing the Cork defence one way and leaving room for the scorers.
If you do that well enough, it makes room for successful kick-passing into the forwards. For Kerry's fourth point, they turned Cork over on their own 20-metre line. Kerry had eight or nine fellas back – Donnchadh was one of them. As soon as it was turned over, he turned and sprinted back up the pitch towards his usual wing forward position.
But when Kerry picked him out five or six passes later, he was at centre forward. He had run in an arc to leave the whole of the right wing of Kerry wide open, so that Kevin McCarthy had room to play a ball in to Paul Geaney out in front of his man. Only one result there. How often between now and September will Geaney get that room one-on-one inside? That was all down to Donnchadh Walsh's intelligent running.
I know it's no big insight to say the pace of the game now is ferocious but you can't really talk about the sport without touching on it. I look at the bigger guys now and wonder how they find a place in it. I was sitting there watching Kieran Donaghy on Sunday full sure he wouldn't make it 70 minutes in that heat.
But even someone like him is built slightly differently now than he was when I was playing. He moves out and around and back in to the edge of the square constantly, keeping defenders on their toes and moving them with him, again to make space for the other pair. And when it came right down to it, he was there to draw a couple of defenders under a high ball and set up the goal.
Or look at Aidan O'Shea playing for Mayo on Saturday night. Another huge man, another guy you'd think this sort of game would pass by. But he was Mayo's best player the other night, a calm head when they needed one, the one guy who seemed to be able to do the right thing when it looked like Mayo might be going out. And he looked in great shape for a player who was supposed to be carrying a groin injury.
I ran into the hurling legend Eamonn Cregan one of the nights recently and he was saying he was disappointed with the standard in football and hurling these days
That Mayo v Derry game was a perfect example of what I'm talking about. This running game takes so much out of you that when a team who is well versed in playing it in big games comes up against a team who is new to that level, fitness becomes a decisive factor. Derry just haven't played games at that intensity in recent years and on a day when Mayo's shooting was so bad it deserved to put an end to their summer, it was their fitness that got them through.
Go back to Chrissy McKaigue's shot with two minutes left in normal time for Derry. It went narrowly wide and as the Mayo goalie David Clarke went to kick out the ball, there was a Derry player down in front of the goal stretching out his calf. Lee Keegan collected a short kick-out and when he did, every Derry player was between him and the goal at the far end of the pitch. Derry shouldn't under any circumstances have conceded a goal from there.
But they were wrecked. They had four fellas within 30 yards of the Mayo goal and none of them were pressing up on the kick-out. Seamie O'Shea ran 40 yards with the ball up the right sideline – again, nobody near him – and played a one-two with Diarmuid O'Connor before kicking the ball as he crossed the Derry 45. It was a low ball into Cillian O'Connor, who flicked a pass to Conor Loftus for a great finish.
You have to hand it to Mayo, they pulled a goal out of the top drawer when nothing else would do. It was perfectly put together thanks to hard running by Seamie O'Shea especially and clever movement from Loftus, who left his man for dead to collect O'Connor's pass.
But they were able to do that because Derry were out on their feet. Not one Mayo player felt a Derry hand on him during the whole move. Fellas were going down with cramp, fellas were jogging back with their hands on their hips. They were in the red, with their lights flashing and steam coming out the sides.
They came back and got a goal soon after with a high ball into the square and you have to commend them for their courage. But Mayo are just more suited to this game right now than Derry, even with all their shooting problems.
On that, I saw a stat the other day that said Cillian O'Connor took 21 shots over the course of the game and that no other Mayo player took more than four. That's fine if he's scoring them but Mayo must know they need more variety than that. Yes, he's their best kicker but he's not 17 shots a game better than the next fella. Mayo need to work better shooting positions for more of their forwards if they're going to still be going in August.
But they have been there before and they're in the right shape to be there again. That's so important. That's why all the top teams are coming down with GPS data, video analysis, Pilates instructors and all the rest of it. Every Kerry player who came off the pitch the last day was handed a concoction to drink as he went up the steps to the stand. Everything is planned and nailed down to the last degree and it's all there to feed into this running game.
I ran into the hurling legend Eamonn Cregan one of the nights recently and he was saying he was disappointed with the standard in football and hurling these days. But to me, football is really interesting at the minute. I think what Tyrone are doing is fascinating in a way. They're all about running, from all players and from all angles. Personally, I would imagine they might fall short on a day when all the shots don't sail over the way they did against Donegal but who knows?
One way or the other, running football will be a huge part of winning the All-Ireland this year.
Decent article which is refreshing
Teams gone from the championship so far
Waterford - Division 4
Louth - Division 3
Wicklow - Division 4
Antrim - Division 3
Limerick - Division 4
London - Division 4
Offaly - Division 3
Fermanagh - Division 2
Laois - Division 3
Derry - Division 2
Longford - Division 3
Sligo - Division 3
4 from Division 4
6 from Division 3 (both relegated teams)
2 from Division 2 (both relegated)
At first glance it looks like Division 4 teams are doing a bit better than normal - however the provincial and qualifier draws have been kind in that there has been multiple all Division 4 clashes.
Also the record of teams who get relegated in the league continues to be poor - no huge surprise there.
The big lesson is that if you want to have any sort of a decent run in the championship you need to get the hell away from the bottom two Divisions.
4 of the following teams will be gone after this weekend
Cavan Tipp - Division 1 (relegated) v Division 3 (promoted)
Carlow Leitrim - both Division 4
Wexford Monaghan - Division 4 v Division 1
Westmeath Armagh - Division 4 v Division 3
Looking at that Cavan v Tipp fixture, it looks very much like it could be a potential upset (if that makes any sense)
The record of teams who have gotten relegated from Division 1 in the same summer's championship has been very poor over the last 7 years and Tipp are the kind of team who can be dangerous on there day - Quinlivan is a loss but Tipp haven't named any subs and it has been a few weeks since the Cork game so I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him in action at some stage.
It's looking more and more like another Dublin v Kerry final with very predictable lineups in the semi.
For the past number of years it's nearly always Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and AN Other and this year it's looking no different.
So Kerry make it into another semifinal with a facile win again in the quarter.
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
The last five years they've had...
2013 beat Cavan 0.15 - 0.09
2014 beat Galway 1.20 - 2.10
2015 beat Kildare 7.16 - 0.10
2016 beat Clare 2.16 - 0.11
2017 beat Galway 1.18 - 0.13
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Dublin having introduced a lot of their younger B team for most of the year so far and so will be very fresh when they meet Armagh or Tyrone should they overcome Monaghan who haven't won a AI quarterfinal before.
I have enjoyed the season so far and especially the 4 games I watched last weekend in Croker but I can help buy feeling it's all been a side show to the main events coming in late Aug and Sept.
Just to expand on what two hands was saying a month ago.
The 8 teams in the quarters...
Kerry - Division 1 winners
Galway - Division 2 winners
Rosscommon- Division 1
Mayo - Division 1
Tyrone - Division 1
Armagh - Division 3
Dublin - Division 1
Monaghan - Division 1
So only 2 teams from D1 failed to make the quarters, Cavan and Donegal
Only 1 side other than the D2 winners Galway don't play D1
Being in the top divisions really does have a big impact on Championship form.
Best teams are in D1/ top D2.
NFL top 10
Kerry Dublin Mayowestros Monaghan Tyrone Donegal
Cavan Ros Galway and Kildare.
9 of them made the last 12 with Cork Down and Armagh.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
Donegal 2012.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Mayo are no different now than they were in 2014 when they struggled past Roscommon and Cork. They pushed Kerry all the way in both AI Ireland semi finals in 2014 and i expect this years semi final to be no different if Mayo reach it.
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
Donegal 2012.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Mayo are no different now than they were in 2014 when they struggled past Roscommon and Cork. They pushed Kerry all the way in both AI Ireland semi finals in 2014 and i expect this years semi final to be no different if Mayo reach it.
They are all three years older, I thought that part would have been obvious..
Quote from: Jayop on August 02, 2017, 04:05:04 PM
Being in the top divisions really does have a big impact on Championship form.
Unless you are Armagh. 2014 relegated to Div 3 then recovered to reach the last 8. This year couldn't gain promotion from Div 3 and then recovered to reach the last 8 again.
Quote from: Syferus on August 02, 2017, 04:31:33 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
Donegal 2012.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Mayo are no different now than they were in 2014 when they struggled past Roscommon and Cork. They pushed Kerry all the way in both AI Ireland semi finals in 2014 and i expect this years semi final to be no different if Mayo reach it.
They are all three years older, I thought that part would have been obvious..
More wiser and experienced will balance out the older bit...
Quote from: Jayop on August 02, 2017, 04:05:04 PM
Just to expand on what two hands was saying a month ago.
The 8 teams in the quarters...
Kerry - Division 1 winners
Galway - Division 2 winners
Rosscommon- Division 1
Mayo - Division 1
Tyrone - Division 1
Armagh - Division 3
Dublin - Division 1
Monaghan - Division 1
So only 2 teams from D1 failed to make the quarters, Cavan and Donegal
Only 1 side other than the D2 winners Galway don't play D1
Being in the top divisions really does have a big impact on Championship form.
What's the cause and what's the effect though?
Surely these counties are in the top two divisions are doing well in the championship because they have the best squads/organization/tactics etc., NOT that doing well in the league somehow is a major reason they do well in the championship?
Granted, a given county may play above themselves in the league in a given year due to being relatively further on in training or playing more first choice players or simply trying harder, but on the whole, I would think league standing and championship success are both an outcome, not a cause and effect.
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:32:37 PM
Unless you are Armagh. 2014 relegated to Div 3 then recovered to reach the last 8. This year couldn't gain promotion from Div 3 and then recovered to reach the last 8 again.
You get that most years though, one or more teams coming through the qualifiers to this stage.
2016 - Clare & Tipp D3 (Tipp Progressed to semi)
2015 - Fermanagh D3
2014 - Armagh relgated from D2
2013 - Monaghan & Cavan
2012 - Only Kildare from D2
So in the last 5 years only Tipp last year progressed from the quarters as a D3 team.
Quote from: J70 on August 02, 2017, 04:38:15 PM
What's the cause and what's the effect though?
Surely these counties are in the top two divisions are doing well in the championship because they have the best squads/organization/tactics etc., NOT that doing well in the league somehow is a major reason they do well in the championship?
Granted, a given county may play above themselves in the league in a given year due to being relatively further on in training or playing more first choice players or simply trying harder, but on the whole, I would think league standing and championship success are both an outcome, not a cause and effect.
Yeah very fair. I do think it's more likely the best teams will both progress in the championship and feature highly in the league, but also, playing against the top sides year in and year out in the league can only help you when you get to this stage. It's very rare for a D3 team to progress from the quarters.
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:34:30 PM
Quote from: Syferus on August 02, 2017, 04:31:33 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
Donegal 2012.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Mayo are no different now than they were in 2014 when they struggled past Roscommon and Cork. They pushed Kerry all the way in both AI Ireland semi finals in 2014 and i expect this years semi final to be no different if Mayo reach it.
They are all three years older, I thought that part would have been obvious..
More wiser and experienced will balance out the older bit...
You'd want to tell them that because they don't seem to know it.
Quote from: Jayop on August 02, 2017, 04:44:51 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2017, 04:32:37 PM
Unless you are Armagh. 2014 relegated to Div 3 then recovered to reach the last 8. This year couldn't gain promotion from Div 3 and then recovered to reach the last 8 again.
You get that most years though, one or more teams coming through the qualifiers to this stage.
2016 - Clare & Tipp D3 (Tipp Progressed to semi)
2015 - Fermanagh D3
2014 - Armagh relgated from D2
2013 - Monaghan & Cavan
2012 - Only Kildare from D2
So in the last 5 years only Tipp last year progressed from the quarters as a D3 team.
A lot of the time these teams getting to the last 8 tend to be helped out by fair favourable draws.
Armagh have played no Division 1 opposition so far.
Roscommon have played one Division 1 team so far and have drawn with them.
Both of them are up against it in terms of progressing to the semis ; you'd imagine the Super 8 next year will help the stronger teams in terms of getting to the semis.
Looking at how these teams from lower divisions who got to the quarters have done against Division 1 opposition.
2016 Tipp did beat a relegated Cork but lost to Kerry once and Mayo once.
2016 Clare did beat Roscommon but were beaten by Kerry twice.
2015 Fermanagh lost to Monaghan. Fermanagh lost to Dublin
2014 Armagh did draw with Monaghan but lost the replay. Did beat Tyrone. Lost to Donegal.
2013 Monaghan beat a relegated Donegal. Lost to Tyrone.
2013 Cavan lost to Kerry.
2012 Kildare lost to Cork.
Basically if you are a team from a lower division and want to get to the quarters, then the key is avoiding Division 1 teams. If you do get drawn against a Division 1 side, you odds improve if they were one of the two relegated teams.
Where are we at?
Probably pretty close to where everyone expected. Armagh and Roscommon(to a lesser degree as they were given an easy route to Connacht final) are probably the surprise packets of the seven teams still standing and Donegal the main losers. Could still end up with Dublin/Tyrone v Kerry/Mayo which was "rogha na coitianta" in most predictions.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 01, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
It's looking more and more like another Dublin v Kerry final with very predictable lineups in the semi.
For the past number of years it's nearly always Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and AN Other and this year it's looking no different.
So Kerry make it into another semifinal with a facile win again in the quarter.
When was the last time they met someone who gave them a game in the quarter? Was it Down 2010?
The last five years they've had...
2013 beat Cavan 0.15 - 0.09
2014 beat Galway 1.20 - 2.10
2015 beat Kildare 7.16 - 0.10
2016 beat Clare 2.16 - 0.11
2017 beat Galway 1.18 - 0.13
With Mayo struggling to get back to good form you would imagine Kerry will have had another easy path to the final.
Dublin having introduced a lot of their younger B team for most of the year so far and so will be very fresh when they meet Armagh or Tyrone should they overcome Monaghan who haven't won a AI quarterfinal before.
I have enjoyed the season so far and especially the 4 games I watched last weekend in Croker but I can help buy feeling it's all been a side show to the main events coming in late Aug and Sept.
I think pre August is like a separate competition.
And the qualifiers reinforce the power structure.
Since the qualifiers began in 2001, a total of 15 different counties have had at least one semi-final appearance. That is a fair spread of counties. Therefore, most counties outside the top 6 or 8 should have a 3-5 year plan to get to a semi-final. If that means getting to Div 1 or top half of Div 2 first, that is fine - in fact, that would seem to be the first target, then look for championship success.
How many counties have a 3-5 year plan that is available to all and sundry, for both hurling and football?
For example, Dublin Strategic Plan 2011-2017 says:
"Set key performance targets for the inter-county teams at all age levels in both codes.
Win a Senior football All-Ireland every 3 years.
Win Senior All-Ireland Hurling Final every 5 years.
Win one Minor All-Ireland Football and one Minor All-Ireland Hurling title every 3 years.
Win one U21 All-Ireland Football and one U21 All-Ireland Hurling titles every 5 years."
Irrespective of what was actually achieved, these are noble goals. Setting realistic goals might be a problem for some counties though.
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 07:18:43 PM
Since the qualifiers began in 2001, a total of 15 different counties have had at least one semi-final appearance. That is a fair spread of counties. Therefore, most counties outside the top 6 or 8 should have a 3-5 year plan to get to a semi-final. If that means getting to Div 1 or top half of Div 2 first, that is fine - in fact, that would seem to be the first target, then look for championship success.
How many counties have a 3-5 year plan that is available to all and sundry, for both hurling and football?
For example, Dublin Strategic Plan 2011-2017 says:
"Set key performance targets for the inter-county teams at all age levels in both codes.
Win a Senior football All-Ireland every 3 years.
Win Senior All-Ireland Hurling Final every 5 years.
Win one Minor All-Ireland Football and one Minor All-Ireland Hurling title every 3 years.
Win one U21 All-Ireland Football and one U21 All-Ireland Hurling titles every 5 years."
Irrespective of what was actually achieved, these are noble goals. Setting realistic goals might be a problem for some counties though.
ConsiderIng 17 or 18 counties have won all Irelands 15 isn't a great return.
By default you would expect Dublin, Meath, Kildare, ,Kerry , Cork, Mayo, Galway and at least 3 Ulster counties.
How.many counties reached their first semi in that time , other than Fermanagh ?
And your solution Seafóidín?
Nearly all the exciting games this year involved Connacht teams.
Quote from: seafoid on August 03, 2017, 07:49:31 PM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 07:18:43 PM
Since the qualifiers began in 2001, a total of 15 different counties have had at least one semi-final appearance. That is a fair spread of counties. Therefore, most counties outside the top 6 or 8 should have a 3-5 year plan to get to a semi-final. If that means getting to Div 1 or top half of Div 2 first, that is fine - in fact, that would seem to be the first target, then look for championship success.
How many counties have a 3-5 year plan that is available to all and sundry, for both hurling and football?
For example, Dublin Strategic Plan 2011-2017 says:
"Set key performance targets for the inter-county teams at all age levels in both codes.
Win a Senior football All-Ireland every 3 years.
Win Senior All-Ireland Hurling Final every 5 years.
Win one Minor All-Ireland Football and one Minor All-Ireland Hurling title every 3 years.
Win one U21 All-Ireland Football and one U21 All-Ireland Hurling titles every 5 years."
Irrespective of what was actually achieved, these are noble goals. Setting realistic goals might be a problem for some counties though.
ConsiderIng 17 or 18 counties have won all Irelands 15 isn't a great return.
By default you would expect Dublin, Meath, Kildare, ,Kerry , Cork, Mayo, Galway and at least 3 Ulster counties.
How.many counties reached their first semi in that time , other than Fermanagh ?
Since 2001, only 7 counties have won Sam and that is the era of qualifiers.
Of the counties you mention under the phrase "you would expect...", note that Galway and Kildare have exactly one semi-final appearance each since 2001 (as have Down, Fermanagh, Tipperary and Wexford) and Meath have 3. Derry have 2, Donegal 4 and Tyrone 6.
Obviously, some counties would be disappointed with a mere semi-final appearance, but others would see it as a great achievement. Ambitions would vary greatly. For example, Kerry hurling target in 2010 was "to participate in the All-Ireland Hurling Championship"...a goal achieved with a lot of good work, but Kilkenny would hardly call that progress from where they are standing at the beginning of any year, let alone 5 years.
By the way, there are 9 counties who failed to make a football quarter-final since the qualifiers began in 2001. Surely "getting to at least one quarter-final" in 3-5 years should be the goal of Antrim, Carlow, Leitrim, London, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Waterford and Wicklow?
Small steps with realistic goals and continuous improvement for any person, team, county or even company sounds reasonable to me.
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 08:09:16 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 03, 2017, 07:49:31 PM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 07:18:43 PM
Since the qualifiers began in 2001, a total of 15 different counties have had at least one semi-final appearance. That is a fair spread of counties. Therefore, most counties outside the top 6 or 8 should have a 3-5 year plan to get to a semi-final. If that means getting to Div 1 or top half of Div 2 first, that is fine - in fact, that would seem to be the first target, then look for championship success.
How many counties have a 3-5 year plan that is available to all and sundry, for both hurling and football?
For example, Dublin Strategic Plan 2011-2017 says:
"Set key performance targets for the inter-county teams at all age levels in both codes.
Win a Senior football All-Ireland every 3 years.
Win Senior All-Ireland Hurling Final every 5 years.
Win one Minor All-Ireland Football and one Minor All-Ireland Hurling title every 3 years.
Win one U21 All-Ireland Football and one U21 All-Ireland Hurling titles every 5 years."
Irrespective of what was actually achieved, these are noble goals. Setting realistic goals might be a problem for some counties though.
ConsiderIng 17 or 18 counties have won all Irelands 15 isn't a great return.
By default you would expect Dublin, Meath, Kildare, ,Kerry , Cork, Mayo, Galway and at least 3 Ulster counties.
How.many counties reached their first semi in that time , other than Fermanagh ?
Since 2001, only 7 counties have won Sam and that is the era of qualifiers.
Of the counties you mention under the phrase "you would expect...", note that Galway and Kildare have exactly one semi-final appearance each since 2001 (as have Down, Fermanagh, Tipperary and Wexford) and Meath have 3. Derry have 2, Donegal 4 and Tyrone 6.
Obviously, some counties would be disappointed with a mere semi-final appearance, but others would see it as a great achievement. Ambitions would vary greatly. For example, Kerry hurling target in 2010 was "to participate in the All-Ireland Hurling Championship"...a goal achieved with a lot of good work, but Kilkenny would hardly call that progress from where they are standing at the beginning of any year, let alone 5 years.
By the way, there are 9 counties who failed to make a football quarter-final since the qualifiers began in 2001. Surely "getting to at least one quarter-final" in 3-5 years should be the goal of Antrim, Carlow, Leitrim, London, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Waterford and Wicklow?
Small steps with realistic goals and continuous improvement for any person, team, county or even company sounds reasonable to me.
The problem in Gaelic going back years is the dominance of Kerry and Dublin. The qualifiers didn't address this. It was great that Fermanagh, Tipp and Wexford got to semis but it wasnt sustained. The qualifiers are conservative.
Quote from: seafoid on August 03, 2017, 08:17:55 PM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 08:09:16 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 03, 2017, 07:49:31 PM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 07:18:43 PM
Since the qualifiers began in 2001, a total of 15 different counties have had at least one semi-final appearance. That is a fair spread of counties. Therefore, most counties outside the top 6 or 8 should have a 3-5 year plan to get to a semi-final. If that means getting to Div 1 or top half of Div 2 first, that is fine - in fact, that would seem to be the first target, then look for championship success.
How many counties have a 3-5 year plan that is available to all and sundry, for both hurling and football?
For example, Dublin Strategic Plan 2011-2017 says:
"Set key performance targets for the inter-county teams at all age levels in both codes.
Win a Senior football All-Ireland every 3 years.
Win Senior All-Ireland Hurling Final every 5 years.
Win one Minor All-Ireland Football and one Minor All-Ireland Hurling title every 3 years.
Win one U21 All-Ireland Football and one U21 All-Ireland Hurling titles every 5 years."
Irrespective of what was actually achieved, these are noble goals. Setting realistic goals might be a problem for some counties though.
ConsiderIng 17 or 18 counties have won all Irelands 15 isn't a great return.
By default you would expect Dublin, Meath, Kildare, ,Kerry , Cork, Mayo, Galway and at least 3 Ulster counties.
How.many counties reached their first semi in that time , other than Fermanagh ?
Since 2001, only 7 counties have won Sam and that is the era of qualifiers.
Of the counties you mention under the phrase "you would expect...", note that Galway and Kildare have exactly one semi-final appearance each since 2001 (as have Down, Fermanagh, Tipperary and Wexford) and Meath have 3. Derry have 2, Donegal 4 and Tyrone 6.
Obviously, some counties would be disappointed with a mere semi-final appearance, but others would see it as a great achievement. Ambitions would vary greatly. For example, Kerry hurling target in 2010 was "to participate in the All-Ireland Hurling Championship"...a goal achieved with a lot of good work, but Kilkenny would hardly call that progress from where they are standing at the beginning of any year, let alone 5 years.
By the way, there are 9 counties who failed to make a football quarter-final since the qualifiers began in 2001. Surely "getting to at least one quarter-final" in 3-5 years should be the goal of Antrim, Carlow, Leitrim, London, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Waterford and Wicklow?
Small steps with realistic goals and continuous improvement for any person, team, county or even company sounds reasonable to me.
The problem in Gaelic going back years is the dominance of Kerry and Dublin. The qualifiers didn't address this. It was great that Fermanagh, Tipp and Wexford got to semis but it wasnt sustained. The qualifiers are conservative.
The 16 years prior to the qualifiers (1985-2000 incl) were not in the period of Kerry/Dublin dominance. I will get data on number of different winners, beaten finalist, and beaten semi-finalists later. A comparison between 1985-2000 and 2001-2016 regarding numbers of different counties making a semi-final might be interesting.
Sounds interesting.
In the big picture the only change since the qfs were introduced was zArmagh and Tyrone finally winning
Quote from: seafoid on August 03, 2017, 09:32:03 PM
Sounds interesting.
In the big picture the only change since the qfs were introduced was zArmagh and Tyrone finally winning
The 16 years prior to 2000 saw Derry and Donegal breaking through, so that cancels any argument that the qualifiers caused anything new to happen.
Between 1969 and 1986 inclusive, just four counties won the All-Ireland.
Between 1958 and 1991 inclusive, just seven won it.
The 1990s were an aberration.
Comparing the 16 years pre-qualifiers (1985-2000 incl) and the 16 years of qualifiers thus far (2001-2016 incl) regarding number of counties at various stages of the All-Ireland:
Number of different champions: 8 pre-qualifiers; 7 in qualifiers era
Number of different finalists: 11 pre-qualifiers; 10 in qualifiers era
Number of different semi-finalists: 18 pre-qualifiers; 15 in qualifiers era.
So it seems the data suggests there is not an expansion of progression. The shock results in the pre-qualifiers era have been replaced to allow the loser to regroup and get back in via the back door. Is this good?
As Sid point out, the 16 years from 1969 to 1984 will have different results.
What are ye trying to prove?
What's it all got to do with the exciting 2017 season?
2017 - Tyrone best in Ulster again, Down regain some self respect, Armagh and Monaghan recover from Down defeats and will feel good about being Qtr Finalists. Cavan and Donegal major disappointments.
Dublin stroll Leinster, bit of a stir in Kildare but a long way to go, Meath a long way off. Rest -God help us but a bit of romance for Carlow.
Kerry stroll Munster, Cork regain self respect v Rhubarbia. Tipp ruined by injuries etc and Clare do as well as could be expected.
Roscommon emerge from years of darkness, fancy dans found wanting again while the Rhubarbs are dead but the hoors just won't lie down and accept it.
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 10:59:43 PM
Comparing the 16 years pre-qualifiers (1985-2000 incl) and the 16 years of qualifiers thus far (2001-2016 incl) regarding number of counties at various stages of the All-Ireland:
Number of different champions: 8 pre-qualifiers; 7 in qualifiers era
Number of different finalists: 11 pre-qualifiers; 10 in qualifiers era
Number of different semi-finalists: 18 pre-qualifiers; 15 in qualifiers era.
So it seems the data suggests there is not an expansion of progression. The shock results in the pre-qualifiers era have been replaced to allow the loser to regroup and get back in via the back door. Is this good?
As Sid point out, the 16 years from 1969 to 1984 will have different results.
1969-1984 data:
Number of different champions: 4 (Cork, Dublin, Kerry Offaly)
Number of different AI finalists: 8 (Armagh, Cork, Dublin, Galway, Kerry, Meath, Offaly, Roscommon)
Number of different AI semi-finalists: 16
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 04, 2017, 01:34:10 AM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 10:59:43 PM
Comparing the 16 years pre-qualifiers (1985-2000 incl) and the 16 years of qualifiers thus far (2001-2016 incl) regarding number of counties at various stages of the All-Ireland:
Number of different champions: 8 pre-qualifiers; 7 in qualifiers era
Number of different finalists: 11 pre-qualifiers; 10 in qualifiers era
Number of different semi-finalists: 18 pre-qualifiers; 15 in qualifiers era.
So it seems the data suggests there is not an expansion of progression. The shock results in the pre-qualifiers era have been replaced to allow the loser to regroup and get back in via the back door. Is this good?
As Sid point out, the 16 years from 1969 to 1984 will have different results.
1969-1984 data:
Number of different champions: 4 (Cork, Dublin, Kerry Offaly)
Number of different AI finalists: 9 (Armagh, Cork, Dublin, Galway, Kerry, Mayo, Meath, Offaly, Roscommon)
Number of different AI semi-finalists: 16
Don't think we made it to an AI during that period, we only won 2 Connachts
Quote from: macdanger2 on August 04, 2017, 09:09:20 AM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 04, 2017, 01:34:10 AM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 03, 2017, 10:59:43 PM
Comparing the 16 years pre-qualifiers (1985-2000 incl) and the 16 years of qualifiers thus far (2001-2016 incl) regarding number of counties at various stages of the All-Ireland:
Number of different champions: 8 pre-qualifiers; 7 in qualifiers era
Number of different finalists: 11 pre-qualifiers; 10 in qualifiers era
Number of different semi-finalists: 18 pre-qualifiers; 15 in qualifiers era.
So it seems the data suggests there is not an expansion of progression. The shock results in the pre-qualifiers era have been replaced to allow the loser to regroup and get back in via the back door. Is this good?
As Sid point out, the 16 years from 1969 to 1984 will have different results.
1969-1984 data:
Number of different champions: 4 (Cork, Dublin, Kerry Offaly)
Number of different AI finalists: 9 (Armagh, Cork, Dublin, Galway, Kerry, Mayo, Meath, Offaly, Roscommon)
Number of different AI semi-finalists: 16
Don't think we made it to an AI during that period, we only won 2 Connachts
Correct - somehow I put you in the final of '69...original post amended to 8 finalists during that period, fewest off all three periods under review. Well spotted sir.
Quote from: Rossfan on August 03, 2017, 07:57:42 PM
And your solution Seafóidín?
1. Dump neoliberalism. It is shite
2 Reform the economy away from Dublin so jobs are available locally
3.Force pension funds to invest money locally or lose tax advantages
4 Tax derivatives and use the money to fund coaches in every parish
5. Use the rest of the money for 1 year swaps of Kerry and Kilkenny coaches to Antrim, Fermanagh etc
6 Every county gets the same money
Quote from: seafoid on August 04, 2017, 03:10:49 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on August 03, 2017, 07:57:42 PM
And your solution Seafóidín?
1. Dump neoliberalism. It is shite
2 Reform the economy away from Dublin so jobs are available locally
3.Force pension funds to invest money locally or lose tax advantages
4 Tax derivatives and use the money to fund coaches in every parish
5. Use the rest of the money for 1 year swaps of Kerry and Kilkenny coaches to Antrim, Fermanagh etc
6 Every county gets the same money
Would you still have the Connacht Final? ;D
Dublin - They are still the team to beat.
Kerry - Beat Galway without having to perform
Tyrone - Out of the teams left in the championship, I think they stand the better chance of challenging Dublin and Kerry. I am aware that the championship is different but I was at the game in the NFL vs Dublin and it is a game they should have won.
Roscommon - Provincial champions but still think they are a long way off. Playing better than any team ranked below them.
Monaghan - Lost to Down but avenged that last weekend. I think there is still a big game in them but a big ask against Dublin.
Armagh - Playing exciting football but they need more time to develop. I don't think they will beat Tyrone.
Mayo - I have them rated as the worse team so far just because they aren't playing well. Is it a case of too many miles on the clock or if they just aren't good enough this year, who knows? If Armagh were playing Mayo instead of Tyrone I would have fancied Armagh to win which is why I have put Mayo at the bottom.
If we're judging on performances, Kerry have been utterly ordinary in two of their three matches this year. In the other game they game up a rake of chances to a Cork team with no belief or defence. They are a long way off hanging with Dublin for the 70 + 10 minutes at championship speed. Tyrone might actually give Dublin more of a test than Kerry this year, and that doesn't say too much.
This comming weekend is the high point of the championship with two local rivalries in Croker and Dublin applying their usual beat down on some poor unfortunate. September has become a land of predictablity and desolation for everyone but Dublin.
Quote from: Solo_run on August 04, 2017, 04:16:12 PM
Dublin - They are still the team to beat.
Kerry - Beat Galway without having to perform
Tyrone - Out of the teams left in the championship, I think they stand the better chance of challenging Dublin and Kerry. I am aware that the championship is different but I was at the game in the NFL vs Dublin and it is a game they should have won.
Roscommon - Provincial champions but still think they are a long way off. Playing better than any team ranked below them.
Monaghan - Lost to Down but avenged that last weekend. I think there is still a big game in them but a big ask against Dublin.
Armagh - Playing exciting football but they need more time to develop. I don't think they will beat Tyrone.
Mayo - I have them rated as the worse team so far just because they aren't playing well. Is it a case of too many miles on the clock or if they just aren't good enough this year, who knows? If Armagh were playing Mayo instead of Tyrone I would have fancied Armagh to win which is why I have put Mayo at the bottom.
To go basing one performance on another has no holding. Monaghan/Down being a case in fact. Taking a performance by Tyrone in early spring against the Dubs has as much hold as Mayo beating Tyrone in Healy Park in the League. Or for that part Tyrones performance against Donegal in the League.
Tyrone are still an unknown quantity. Because of the Topsy turvy nature of the Ulster Championship this year.
Armagh have beaten Leinster teams that got thought a lesson in their previous games against Dublin and lost to an average Down side!
Monaghan have not been world beaters either. Carlow game proved this!
Roscommon have had a good win against Galway. But they did not beat Mayo despite all the doom and gloom about this Mayo team. They still hold better form than most remaining.
Kerry are Kerry!
And Dublin hold all the Aces including Venue and path to the final!
Mayo maybe the easy target to complain about. But try beating them?
Quote from: sid waddell on August 03, 2017, 10:04:21 PM
Between 1969 and 1986 inclusive, just four counties won the All-Ireland.
Between 1958 and 1991 inclusive, just seven won it.
The 1990s were an aberration.
Hurling would be similar
Quote from: From the Bunker on August 04, 2017, 04:48:44 PM
Quote from: Solo_run on August 04, 2017, 04:16:12 PM
Dublin - They are still the team to beat.
Kerry - Beat Galway without having to perform
Tyrone - Out of the teams left in the championship, I think they stand the better chance of challenging Dublin and Kerry. I am aware that the championship is different but I was at the game in the NFL vs Dublin and it is a game they should have won.
Roscommon - Provincial champions but still think they are a long way off. Playing better than any team ranked below them.
Monaghan - Lost to Down but avenged that last weekend. I think there is still a big game in them but a big ask against Dublin.
Armagh - Playing exciting football but they need more time to develop. I don't think they will beat Tyrone.
Mayo - I have them rated as the worse team so far just because they aren't playing well. Is it a case of too many miles on the clock or if they just aren't good enough this year, who knows? If Armagh were playing Mayo instead of Tyrone I would have fancied Armagh to win which is why I have put Mayo at the bottom.
To go basing one performance on another has no holding. Monaghan/Down being a case in fact. Taking a performance by Tyrone in early spring against the Dubs has as much hold as Mayo beating Tyrone in Healy Park in the League. Or for that part Tyrones performance against Donegal in the League.
Tyrone are still an unknown quantity. Because of the Topsy turvy nature of the Ulster Championship this year.
Armagh have beaten Leinster teams that got thought a lesson in their previous games against Dublin and lost to an average Down side!
Monaghan have not been world beaters either. Carlow game proved this!
Roscommon have had a good win against Galway. But they did not beat Mayo despite all the doom and gloom about this Mayo team. They still hold better form than most remaining.
Kerry are Kerry!
And Dublin hold all the Aces including Venue and path to the final!
Mayo maybe the easy target to complain about. But try beating them?
I am not doing down Mayo's chances, I am only calling it as it is at present. Out of all the teams left, Mayo are the ones off the pace, but I also think they are coming in under the radar. They are after all one win away from a semi final appearance. But if they don't show up they are going to have the same fate as Galway.
Yes, Tyrone and Dublin game was in the league. And I agree about Tyrone probably not being tested but the same could be said about Dublin and Kerry. However, albeit against questionable opposition, they have dismantled teams in the same way Dublin have in Leinster.
From 1974 to 90 no Ulster or Connacht team got to an all Ireland final by beating the Munster or Leinster winners. So there were no Connacht or Ulster winners.
That system broke down in 1991 and since then 5 Ulster counties have won. That was a game changer in the sport. Unfortunately only 1 Connacht team won since although it wasn't for the want of trying.
Unfortunately
Between 1834 and 1903 Kerry didn't win a single All-Ireland.
I'm glad now Tyrone did not beat Dublin in the league as it left enough questions unanswered to make the possible semifinal very interesting.
During the 2000s Dublin held Tyrone in high esteem and built their resurgence around how they did things.
Now the roles are reversed again and if they should meet it could be a crossroads for Dublin.
They know they have got Kerry and Mayo's number over the past few years but there has been a lot of talk that they don't match up well to the type of game Tyrone play.
Personally, as a Tyrone man living in Dublin, I think Gavin has been trying hard to change his players one by one and I don't think they are as strong as maybe two years ago but I still have my doubts if Tyrone are good enough to beat them.
I think it might come down to belief, hunger and sheer will to win rather than footballing ability.
I just hope we get the chance to find out before handing Sam to Mayo in the final.
I'm glad now Tyrone did not beat Dublin in the league as it left enough questions unanswered to make the possible semifinal very interesting.
During the 2000s Dublin held Tyrone in high esteem and built their resurgence around how they did things.
Now the roles are reversed again and if they should meet it could be a crossroads for Dublin.
They know they have got Kerry and Mayo's number over the past few years but there has been a lot of talk that they don't match up well to the type of game Tyrone play.
Personally, as a Tyrone man living in Dublin, I think Gavin has been trying hard to change his players one by one and I don't think they are as strong as maybe two years ago but I still have my doubts if Tyrone are good enough to beat them.
I think it might come down to belief, hunger and sheer will to win rather than footballing ability.
I just hope we get the chance to find out before handing Sam to Mayo in the final.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 04, 2017, 07:14:29 PM
I'm glad now Tyrone did not beat Dublin in the league as it left enough questions unanswered to make the possible semifinal very interesting.
During the 2000s Dublin held Tyrone in high esteem and built their resurgence around how they did things.
Now the roles are reversed again and if they should meet it could be a crossroads for Dublin.
They know they have got Kerry and Mayo's number over the past few years but there has been a lot of talk that they don't match up well to the type of game Tyrone play.
Personally, as a Tyrone man living in Dublin, I think Gavin has been trying hard to change his players one by one and I don't think they are as strong as maybe two years ago but I still have my doubts if Tyrone are good enough to beat them.
I think it might come down to belief, hunger and sheer will to win rather than footballing ability.
I just hope we get the chance to find out before handing Sam to Mayo in the final.
Worry about Armagh first, ye aren't good enough to overlook them.
Quote from: Rossfan on August 04, 2017, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 04, 2017, 03:10:49 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on August 03, 2017, 07:57:42 PM
And your solution Seafóidín?
1. Dump neoliberalism. It is shite
2 Reform the economy away from Dublin so jobs are available locally
3.Force pension funds to invest money locally or lose tax advantages
4 Tax derivatives and use the money to fund coaches in every parish
5. Use the rest of the money for 1 year swaps of Kerry and Kilkenny coaches to Antrim, Fermanagh etc
6 Every county gets the same money
Would you still have the Connacht Final? ;D
Put it to a vote. I wouldn't miss it myself.
Also Pãirc na gaoithe in Salthill should be left to nature
Quote from: Syferus on August 04, 2017, 06:56:47 PM
Between 1834 and 1903 Kerry didn't win a single All-Ireland.
One hurling!,,,
Quote from: Frank Casey on August 04, 2017, 09:08:33 PM
Quote from: Syferus on August 04, 2017, 06:56:47 PM
Between 1834 and 1903 Kerry didn't win a single All-Ireland.
One hurling!,,,
And didn't win the 1903 football final until calendar year 1905...
Quote from: Syferus on August 04, 2017, 06:56:47 PM
Between 1834 and 1903 Kerry didn't win a single All-Ireland.
Well they won nothing from 1233 (when Kerry was first shired) so really they have nothing to crow about. 😁
Why did you select 1834 when the first AI was that of 1887? Lies, damn lies, etc!
Syf if you were a betting man and you had 100k to bet would you bet on Armagh or Tyrone?
It's easy for you as a Rossie to say that.
It will be a HUGE shock tomorrow of Armagh win and in fairness to most of the Armagh posters they have already admitted that.
But at least Armagh have the balls to go for it and not flaff around as they showed last week v Kildare.
I suspect ye lads had yer chance and blew it and what ye will be remembered for this year is your fans were such a disgrace that your county board had to apologise.
Quote from: Tatler Jack on August 04, 2017, 09:22:43 PM
Quote from: Syferus on August 04, 2017, 06:56:47 PM
Between 1834 and 1903 Kerry didn't win a single All-Ireland.
Well they won nothing from 1233 (when Kerry was first shired) so really they have nothing to crow about. 😁
Why did you select 1834 when the first AI was that of 1887? Lies, damn lies, etc!
Because it's as valid a date as some of the other arbitrary snapshots here. We have to be careful about not making statistics say the things we want themto say and rather than what they are actualliy saying.
Quote from: Fuzzman on August 04, 2017, 09:23:56 PM
Syf if you were a betting man and you had 100k to bet would you bet on Armagh or Tyrone?
It's easy for you as a Rossie to say that.
It will be a HUGE shock tomorrow of Armagh win and in fairness to most of the Armagh posters they have already admitted that.
But at least Armagh have the balls to go for it and not flaff around as they showed last week v Kildare.
I suspect ye lads had yer chance and blew it and what ye will be remembered for this year is your fans were such a disgrace that your county board had to apologise.
You would expect Tyrone to beat Armagh and Mayo to beat Ros but they are 2 local derbies and there are some questions about the 2 favourites. If Ros do beat Mayo they will be remembered for that, as Tipp were remembered last year.
Did some Ulster items say earlier that Ros were the weakest team in the last 8? ;D :D
You would feel sorry for Monaghan.
There is obviously a two tier system in division 1.
Kildare, Galway, Monaghan ,Cavan and Donegal are way off the pace.