A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[Rossfan]

True.
Well short of a "million" though.

[Milltown Row2]

43.5% of 1.9 million so just over 800,000. Not all are of voting age.

Numbers voting for who organises bin collections does not correlate with numbers that would vote in a referendum.

On a referendum vote would they bring it down to over 16's to vote?

[johnnycool]

43.5% of 1.9 million so just over 800,000. Not all are of voting age.

Numbers voting for who organises bin collections does not correlate with numbers that would vote in a referendum.

On a referendum vote would they bring it down to over 16's to vote?

Unionism would fight that tooth and nail going by the recent census figures;

0-14 age cohort  %
Catholic 47.36
Other Christian 23.55
Other/no reg/not stated 23.26

15-39
Catholic 43.28
Other Christian 30.5
Other/no reg/not stated 26.2

40-64
Catholic 41.96
Other Christian 39.89
Other/no reg/not stated 18.16

65+
Catholic 35.54
Other Christian 52.82
Other/no reg/not stated 11.56

[Feckitt]

Check out the fascinating demographic blog by Faha & Bangordub https://bangordub.wordpress.com/

On the latest post they dissect the latest religious figures.  Interesting how every Tom, Dick and Harry are lumped into the Protestant/Other Christian pile.

[Feckitt]

Nationalists outpolled Unionists by a not insignificant margin at the last election.  Unionists will never outpoll Nationalists at any election ever again, including the Unity Referendum, no matter how quickly it happens.

Also, the census results are already 2 years out of date, and the gap will have increased since then.

[NAG1]

Nationalists outpolled Unionists by a not insignificant margin at the last election.  Unionists will never outpoll Nationalists at any election ever again, including the Unity Referendum, no matter how quickly it happens.

Also, the census results are already 2 years out of date, and the gap will have increased since then.

It will not be Nationalists or Unionists who decided the outcome of any Referendum, it will be those in the middle that affiliate increasingly with neither.

The problem for Unionists in this group is that the longer they make this place unworkable and people can see the benefits they once enjoyed fading away, the more likely they are to vote for change. If they made this place a success the would be no clamour for change from this key demographic.

The job for Nationalists is to demonstrate the practical implications of a UI and the benefits that this can bring and to sell this to the middle 'neither' demographic.

[Pub Bore]

I went to bed after the first break, there's only so much shite talk I can take, but the unionist commentators were lambasting the housing the cost of living the rising numbers of homeless people and the amount of tax people pay and that the nitty gritty of selling the UI would be very difficult

I didn't see the programme, yer man Clark makes me ill.  But people can either say "Why is a pint so dear in Dublin?" or "Why are my wages so low?".  Too many Unionists wear being poorer and less productive as a badge of pride.

[AustinPowers]

Nationalists outpolled Unionists by a not insignificant margin at the last election.  Unionists will never outpoll Nationalists at any election ever again, including the Unity Referendum, no matter how quickly it happens.

Also, the census results are already 2 years out of date, and the gap will have increased since then.

Coming  soon.... Plantation II

And , sure when  that bridge to Scotland is build,  the planters can  drive over.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Must be great to live in the 6 Cos....
Loads of houses, no homelessness, no cost of living increases, no taxes.....
I'm packing the van this evening....

This will be the mis information that's given, it'll be a dirty campaign, that's for sure

Its already started, the amount of nonsense going around is unreal and unfortunately the media are not challenging the mis information

I wrote this for somewhere else but I cant seem to post it so ill have to bore all you guys with it

Demographic change is happening, just at a snails pace but that might be about to change as we near a potential tipping point. I think the shift has been masked over the last 20 yrs by previous poor nationalist turnout and also the increasing greening of the Alliance party.
The lack of understanding from Unionist politicians and commentators is incredible. Every excuse under the sun is being used for the poor performance at the council elections other than the reality that slowly, slowly the unionist numbers are falling and are just not there anymore but these excuses are also going to be used to block a border poll.

I'll make a list of the claims.

1. The nationalist vote has been the same for 25 yrs.

This actually is partially true. It has been stuck around the low forties. It is worth noting that at the council election when ALL nationalist parties and independents are included it was actually over 44%. Most people seem to quote just the combined SF and SDLP vote and conveniently miss out Aontu, nationalist independents and of course PBP who like to spoof that they are others. Big Ian jnr of course has to go the extra mile and was on the radio the other day saying that 70% are against a UI, he could only be bothered counting SF. Interesting that often conveniently left out of this analysis is that over the same 25 years the unionist vote has gone down over 15%.

2. Differential voter turnout

I think certain unionist areas did have a poor turnout but the impact is overestimated. You only have to look at how competitive unionism still is in places like FST to realise that when needed the vote still comes out. That seat should have been a safe SF seat now for several westminster elections but it is still only won by a handful of votes and Tom Elliot even won it as recently as 2015.

3. Too many unionist parties causing vote shredding

A ridiculous claim in a STV election. If anything more parties are likely to get a wider range of unionists out to vote. Unionists actually won more seats/votes than nationalists at the council elections torpedoing this DUP arguement. Yet no commentator questioned it

4. Alliance voters will back the union at any referendum.

The truth is we don't know how people will vote on a referendum but to blanket claim all Alliance voters and others such as greens as being automatically pro-union is quite frankly ridiculous especially considering the transfers when analysed go heavily in favour to nationalist parties!! Also strange that one minute they are part of the pan-nationalist front next minute they are all unionist because they only get votes in Unionist constituencies lol.
It was a worrying development on ITV's view from stormont when Peter Shirlow just slipped in under his breath that there will be no border poll because of the Alliance party as nationalists will never reach 50%+1. This is a ridiculous statement and all the more dramatic as it is from a so called academic as he just automatically assumed non nationalist means unionist, and why should Shirlows' opinion matter, well the guy is heavily involved with Liverpool university polling, polls that along with others will be used to influence SoS whether a referendum is needed or not

Dodgy polling

I already mentioned the Liverpool poll which suddenly doesn't seem so 'neutral'. The fact that it uses face to face polling should be enough for you to ignore it. When do you go and vote in an election and have to tell someone who you voted for. Why would you create a poll that doesn't reflect reality. People in general can be shy to disclose who they vote for, throw in the fact that not long ago in Northern Ireland it could cost you your life it should then come as no surprise that people are not fully honest with pollsters. Jon tonge after one of his polls commissioned for the BBC after going through all the stats then mentioned that the UI figure was probably on the low side. If that's the case then why bother in the first place. Just to confirm how useless face to face polling are, NILT have released there annual joke, their party support stats are so far away from any actual election ever with Alliance on 37% it makes you wonder why. Yet these polls Unionists swear by them and take them over actual election results. It's bizarre beyond belief. Interesting lucid talk is an anonymous online poll and has the most accurate predictions for election results. lucid talk would often have the UI/UK poll quite close unlike the others and as if by coincidence Bill White was recently targeted by the media questioning his sampling and methodology and accuracy yet the others with all their obvious flaws get a free pass!!

Census

So the census showed Catholics now outnumber protestants. This if course can be explained by Ben Lowry and co that it is only happening because Protestants have become more secular. He ignores the fact that on the census you can tick atheist, agnostic etc but you still then tick the community background question. Ben seems to think tens of thousands of lapsed protestants are all filling their census forms incorrectly and not disclosing their actual background. That's some assumption.

The desperation and denial will continue following further elections. The numbers are probably already there for a referendum and certainly will be when a referendum actually happens in 5-10 yrs. Unfortunately I have a feeling Northern nationalist will be like the Scots and fear change listen too much to the guff about NHS being great and not having to pay for a Dr' s appt and not actually look at the reality that the ROI has better education, a better health service, better benefits and you will actually live longer yet some will listen just to the meaningless sound bites. I would expect the UK government and NI media not to be neutral and I fully expect the Irish government to only be half arsed when it comes to the campaign.

These factors could have enough nationalists backing remain or not even coming out to vote!!

[Orior]

It really is quite sikening to hear the DUP, FF, Alliance and UU chastise SF for attending a commemoration.

Yes the same angels expect nationalists to enjoy the Twelfth "celebrations".

Finally, and to rub noses in it further, Micheál Martin visits the home of the Orange Order today.

[marty34]

It really is quite sikening to hear the DUP, FF, Alliance and UU chastise SF for attending a commemoration.

Yes the same angels expect nationalists to enjoy the Twelfth "celebrations".

Finally, and to rub noses in it further, Micheál Martin visits the home of the Orange Order today.

Not only that but there's some remembering the terrorists of the BA etc. every November.

[clonadmad]

It really is quite sikening to hear the DUP, FF, Alliance and UU chastise SF for attending a commemoration.

Yes the same angels expect nationalists to enjoy the Twelfth "celebrations".

Finally, and to rub noses in it further, Micheál Martin visits the home of the Orange Order today.

I don't know what Martin and FF and FG think they are at when then are kow towing to an organisation in a months time will gleefully burn the flag of the country they swear to serve

I'm far from a SF voter but the reality is that instead of Official Ireland licking these f**kers holes and they seeing it as a sign of weakness on the part of the south

We should be a damn sight more robust in our dealings with all shades of unionism

[AustinPowers]

It really is quite sikening to hear the DUP, FF, Alliance and UU chastise SF for attending a commemoration.

Yes the same angels expect nationalists to enjoy the Twelfth "celebrations".

Finally, and to rub noses in it further, Micheál Martin visits the home of the Orange Order today.

I don't know what Martin and FF and FG think they are at when then are kow towing to an organisation in a months time will gleefully burn the flag of the country they swear to serve

I'm far from a SF voter but the reality is that instead of Official Ireland licking these f**kers holes and they seeing it as a sign of weakness on the part of the south

We should be a damn sight more robust in our dealings with all shades of unionism

Everything they do is  all  about keeping  SF out , and  them keeping their cushy  positions .  Attack SF  at every opportunity . ,  They're worse vthan the DUP in that  regard

[imtommygunn]

That's exactly it. The OO or DUP have never made any "concessions " for nationalists ever and nor are they likely to.

[marty34]

It really is quite sikening to hear the DUP, FF, Alliance and UU chastise SF for attending a commemoration.

Yes the same angels expect nationalists to enjoy the Twelfth "celebrations".

Finally, and to rub noses in it further, Micheál Martin visits the home of the Orange Order today.

I don't know what Martin and FF and FG think they are at when then are kow towing to an organisation in a months time will gleefully burn the flag of the country they swear to serve

I'm far from a SF voter but the reality is that instead of Official Ireland licking these f**kers holes and they seeing it as a sign of weakness on the part of the south

We should be a damn sight more robust in our dealings with all shades of unionism

Everything they do is  all  about keeping  SF out , and  them keeping their cushy  positions .  Attack SF  at every opportunity . ,  They're worse vthan the DUP in that  regard

In fairness, it's great.  Works the other way.

People can see right through the hypocrisy.