Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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magpie seanie

How short peoples memories are. If the last GE went the way all ye experts thought then there would be no drama this week but Corbyn showed May up for the ball of shite that she is. A brilliant man who actually gives a f**k about people. Britain would be a much better place after a few years of his stewardship but ironically the biggest problem he has are the tories in his own party still lamenting the departure of the butcher.

trailer

Quote from: imtommygunn on December 10, 2018, 03:11:37 PM
According to Peston on twitter he isn't going to bite as that would be (seen to be)putting party before country and he wants to put the country first and go back to the EU to renegotiate.

Corbyn is elevated beyond his capabilities. Policies from the 1900's. Him and Abbott both need to be expunged.

Also Peston is a f**king bullshit journalist. Not credible as a human being.

imtommygunn

QuoteA brilliant man who actually gives a f**k about people.

I agree with the latter but not the former. I was impressed by him up until this brexit shambles. If he was brilliant the tories would be out already - it's being set on a plate for him and he is not doing anything about it.

(You are probably right about Peston trailer)

trailer

Quote from: magpie seanie on December 10, 2018, 03:15:36 PM
How short peoples memories are. If the last GE went the way all ye experts thought then there would be no drama this week but Corbyn showed May up for the ball of shite that she is. A brilliant man who actually gives a f**k about people. Britain would be a much better place after a few years of his stewardship but ironically the biggest problem he has are the tories in his own party still lamenting the departure of the butcher.

What is Labour's position on Brexit? No one knows. Not even them. Stephen Kinnock was running around at the weekend talking about Norway deal, or Norway+ despite Norway saying "no chance guys, do one lads." Coming out with this bullshit unicorn solution shows them up for what they are.
On Brexit you could argue they're worse than the Government.

Peston is a p***k. Hate him.

Hardy

English nationalism, English exceptionalism and English colonial delusions combine to threaten to burn the country. The votes to float this ludicrous project are only available because there are enough anti-immigrant racists (who voted Brexit because they don't like Pakistanis - Frankie Boyle) and enough forelock-tugging plebs who always look to their 'upper class' masters to be told what to do, even if it's to their own disadvantage.

There is a difference between monarchical England and republics. Can you imagine the French voting to impoverish themselves because they were told by some chinless toffs that their destiny is to rule the world?

This is a good analysis of the mindset, and a good illustration of its contrast with the mindset of another republic - Ireland:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/this-means-war-psychologists-try-to-make-sense-of-brexit-1.3725395


All versions of Brexit will leave the UK poorer. So said UK chancellor Philip Hammond as he attempted to sell what Theresa May sees as the least painful Brexit before a key parliamentary vote on Tuesday.

You would think that, were you presented with evidence that a course of action you had embarked upon would turn out to be bad for you, that would probably sway you towards not following through with it.

Not so with Brexiteers. What drives them, despite the dire warnings about a no-deal Brexit, is the belief that life outside a union with 27 other countries with barrier-free access to a market of 450 million people offers greater sovereignty, a greater sense of their identity and, ultimately, greater economic power.

There is a hardline refusal to accept any temporary half-measures to reach a compromise, fearing they may become permanent. Given the political turmoil at Westminster, there is a growing risk this will result in a no-deal Brexit, with potentially catastrophic economic results.

In the psychology of Brexit politics, remaining absolutely faithful to one's political beliefs and core ideological positions means protecting political identity over economic self-interest, however great the cost.

"[This is] people taking action for essentially psychological reasons, irrespective of the economic cost," said Ian Robertson, professor of psychology at Trinity College Dublin.

"The reason for that is who we are – our self-image – is something that is most precious to us. Our identity, our concept of ourselves, is something that is a central motivator and protecting that is one of the greatest motivators in human endeavour."

The threat of Northern Ireland being treated separately from the rest of the United Kingdom under the divorce deal's "backstop" – a measure to guarantee there will be no return to a hard border in Ireland – is a "personal psychological threat to their identity," says Robertson.

He believes the "fear-driven vote" around immigration in the 2016 referendum created the sense that there was a dangerous and threatening world out there and protecting their identity induced a "pull-down-the-shutters mentality."

"In that sense, it becomes symbolically almost a slightly wartime psychology. In wartime, you deal with the threat and to hell with the economic consequences. Countries bankrupt themselves in order to survive," he said.

Project Fear
In Brexit's psychological conflict, severe warnings about a no-deal are dismissed as "Project Fear" and, on many occasions, the qualifications or calibre of the expert presenting the warnings are disparaged too, such as when pro-Brexit Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg dismissed Bank of England governor Mark Carney as a failed "second-tier Canadian politician" after Carney issued stern warnings about a no-deal Brexit.

Pete Lunn, head of behavioural research at the Economic and Social Research Institute, attributes these kinds of attacks to the heavy investment politicians make in their beliefs to maintain consistency and the trust of voters. This forces Brexiteers to interpret information undermining their views in a biased manner to fit their beliefs.

"For something as divisive as Brexit, particularly something which is a 'yes or no' thing that people have been campaigning for a long time, any chance that the politician will change their view on that is remote, regardless of the evidence that gets put in front of them," he says.

Despite clear evidence the UK will, at least in the short to medium term, pay a cost for exiting the EU, no Brexiteer has gone so far as to disclose the price at which it would become unacceptable.

"This is the question they don't want to answer because they cannot countenance the idea that that yes-no thing that they have campaigned for and that they identify with can be switched," says Lunn. "This, we know from psychology, is something people do: when they have treasured beliefs, they deny that they trade off with anything. They become absolute things they are not willing to accept there is a trade-off."

The practice of ignoring uncomfortable trade-offs is defined as "defensive avoidance", according to David Houghton, a professor and expert on political psychology at the US Naval War College in Rhode Island.

This, he says, is driving the position of Northern Ireland's pro-Brexit Democratic Unionist Party, who oppose prime minister Theresa May's divorce deal, including the contentious backstop.

"Ideological people as opposed to pragmatists are prone to this because pragmatic people will be aware of trade-offs and will try to negotiate compromises," he said.

When it comes to finding a compromise in Brexit's ideologue-dominated political arena, there is "probably more chance of hell freezing over," says Philip Corr, a professor of psychology at City, University of London and an expert on behavioural economics.

The trouble is that the "economic game" that is playing out in the Brexit debate is seen as a "zero-sum game", he says. "If you gain, I lose, and vice versa."

Instead, the game needs to be reframed as non-zero sum, where enlightened economic self-interest wins out and political ideologies follow in its wake.

"The obstacle to such a pleasing outcome is that so much political capital is in play, and some politicians are bound to get a large return on their investment, while others are likely to go bust. Under such a circumstance, it would take a feat of major political bravery to put the interests of the UK first," says Corr.

Hurt feelings
If politicians "could put their hurt feelings to one side and discount the emotional value of past differences of often very heated opinion", he says, then there is a chance of finding consensus and creating "in-group coherence", though this might require defining an "out-group" who can be hated such as the "faceless Brussels bureaucrats".

The stakes, however, are stratospheric for both Remainers and Leavers.

One psychological analysis suggests compromise is more likely to come from moderate Leavers because they can offer some concessions and still at least gain what they wanted: the UK will no longer be in the EU.

The bigger risk is on the Remain side.

"If you are a Remainer, you take a massive risk by voting down the deal, because you risk a hard Brexit, which is your biggest nightmare because it results in all of the downside costs of Brexit, and Brexit [itself]," says the ESRI's Lunn.

"So you don't get to remain and you pay this huge, admittedly unknown price, because you crash out."

Behavioural science studies of decision-making by people who face losses show that they are likely to be optimistic about their chances in such circumstances because there is a possibility, even if people are putting it at less than 50-50, that Brexit will never happen if May's proposed divorce deal is voted down.

"This is exactly the same kind of logic as rogue traders: people who chase their losses in business and go bankrupt because they doubled their money to try to recover their position. The Remainers are in exactly that situation where what they face is a catastrophic loss and there is a high-risk game," says Lunn.

On the other side, what is psychologically driving the Brexiteer ideologues such as Rees-Mogg in this "absolutely incredible" game of high-stakes risk-taking is social identity status, says the ESRI academic.

He sees Brexiteer hardliners as "victims of a version of British history belonging in the 19th century", where they regard the UK as an independent global nation and the EU as depriving them of that status. "They feel like it is almost like personal dilution to be involved in something like the European Union. "

This explains the sense of personal affront that Brexiteers feel by having to remain "rule-takers" from the EU under May's potentially halfway-house status under the Brexit agreement.

The Belfast model
Ian Robertson believes the British could learn from the place that has landed UK politics in the crisis it is in: Northern Ireland and the peace process that culminated in the 1998 Belfast Agreement. The Dublin-based academic described it as "one of the most sophisticated political psychological enterprises ever engaged in".

The agreement removed the threat to people's identities by mutually recognised different identities, permitting a Protestant Ulster man to be Irish too or British and European.

A "superordinate identity" – for example, in religion being not Catholic or Protestant but Christian – is the "greatest antidote to "out-group" prejudices", says Robertson.

But within the pick-a-side political psychology of Brexit, it can become a threat too: being European in Northern Ireland might identity you as a supporter of a united Ireland. Being pro-European was regarded negatively in pro-Brexit circles as supporting a federalist Europe, which the UK resisted.

Robertson believes the EU could have done a better job at building "an emotional European identity" and not just an "intellectual, super-cerebral administration project."

"The Irish have a lot to teach because of their bitter experience and success at negotiating the peace process. They have a lot to offer to help Europe find an identity," he says.

In the long run, Robertson believes a far bigger conflict facing the planet might generate a broader, cohesive superordinate identity to unite people way beyond the narrowing politics and psychology of Brexit.

"We may be rescued by the fight against climate change because it might get to the point where we have to say: 'My God, we are all humans and we are about to go extinct if we don't do something,' " he says.

"That actually is like an acid that dissolves the conflict between groups with different identities below that."

screenexile

If Corbyn would make a f**king call about Brexit he could be in charge by quite some distance but he's totally fudged it!!

If he comes out in the morning and says we're staying in but only with x, y, z assurances then he'll get a chunk of it from the EU and walk the election . . .  But he won't!!!

Someone needs to take this thing by the scruff of the neck or we're just freewheeling into oblivion!

Smokin Joe

It's hard to see just how this ends up.

It would be a massive step if people would just admit one simple truth: "It is not possible for NI to be outside the Customs Union and not have a border on the island of Ireland".  Until this happens everyone is in denial, which means that they can't intelligently choose any option.

I spoke to 2 DUP MPs last week.  They both told me that they didn't want this deal (as we all know), but neither of them could coherently tell me what they do want.

People, including the DUP, talk about the UK (inc NI) leaving the Customs Union and having no hard border but that is not possible. 

Here is a little scenario that clearly sets this out.

Let's pretend that the UK (inc NI) leaves the Customs Union as they want to strike even better trade deals around the world; this after all was one of the drivers towards Brexit.

The UK enter into a Free Trade Agreement with Orangestan (a country somewhere far beyond the EU).  In this FTA the UK can export stuff tariff free to Orangestan and Orangestan can export their oranges tariff free to the UK; again this is the Holy Grail of Brexit.

Compare this with the EU, who has an import tariff of 10 pence on each orange imported from Orangestan.  So the Brexiteers were correct; they were able to negotiate better trade deals with Orangestan than the EU were able to.

Orangestan can deliver their oranges either to the port of Belfast or Dublin and the price, before duties, is £1 (Orangestan like sterling so they sell in GBP to all customers across the world!).
The price that Northern Ireland fruit wholesalers pay for the oranges are £1, while the price that the ROI fruit wholesales pay is £1.10. The 10 pence difference is due to the differential in tariffs. 

Imagine there is no border.

What do we think will happen?

The oranges from Northern Ireland are likely to find their way over the border into the ROI because the NI oranges could be sold in the ROI at £1.05.  This gives a profit to the people who had access to NI oranges, whilst at the same time ensuring that the ROI customer is making a saving on the price of the official duty paid product. 
The greengrocers in Monaghan, Cavan and Donegal will see a reduction in their orange sales due to the inevitable smuggling of oranges.  Soon the Northern Irish oranges find their way further south and this smuggling issue gets Leo Varadkar's attention. 

The ROI greengrocers are up in arms because their orange sales have disappeared and import duties are not being properly assessed and paid over. 

The Irish Government is faced with no choice, they have to install a manned border so that they can stop the orange smuggling route so that the Irish greengrocers can continue to make their living.

I appreciate that the above story may seem simplistic, but understanding this makes it very clear that the UK government is going to find it very difficult to actually get any sort of Brexit deal approved as Northern Ireland is such a burden on GB's desire to be free of the EU.

So think of this when we hear politicians saying that we need to negotiate a better deal with no NI backstop.  It is just not possible; unless NI remains forever in the Customs Union - and it's difficult to see the British Parliament voting for that.

Rossfan

The Brits have become like the DUPUDA -they don't know what they want but they're against everything.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: Hardy on December 10, 2018, 04:55:15 PM
Behavioural science studies of decision-making by people who face losses show that they are likely to be optimistic about their chances in such circumstances because there is a possibility, even if people are putting it at less than 50-50, that Brexit will never happen if May's proposed divorce deal is voted down.

"This is exactly the same kind of logic as rogue traders: people who chase their losses in business and go bankrupt because they doubled their money to try to recover their position. The Remainers are in exactly that situation where what they face is a catastrophic loss and there is a high-risk game," says Lunn.


I would not agree with that, at all.

This is not business, so drawing a comparison between chasing a flawed business model and holding out for common sense to rear its head are two very different things. Indeed, somewhat diametrically opposed.

Common sense would suggest throwing more money at a problem while doing the same thing with that money won't net you a return.
Common sense would suggest being inside the largest by wealth (or is it 2nd largest) tariff trading block in the world is a good thing for the living standards of those within it.

i usse an speelchekor

Rois

Sammy Wilson has just said on C4 News that the backstop proposal as it is currently proposed will lead to reunification of Ireland.

Smokin' Joe- are the DUP taking any notice of industry groups at all?

Smokin Joe

#5590
Quote from: Rois on December 10, 2018, 07:42:28 PM

Smokin' Joe- are the DUP taking any notice of industry groups at all?

Nope Rois, not at all.  I felt like Ian Jr was trying to put words into my mouth "I was speaking to a NI manufacturer and exporter who said he would be happy to trade on WTO terms" etc.  This was after I told him that we already exported lots to the rest of the world.

Look, I can understand why they wouldn't go for the backstop, but I have no clue how it ends up in a position that they can support any sort of Brexit deal.  And I'm not sure they do either.




armaghniac

Quote from: Rois on December 10, 2018, 07:42:28 PM
Sammy Wilson has just said on C4 News that the backstop proposal as it is currently proposed will lead to reunification of Ireland.

Of course, as per the Times poll last week the backstop will not lead to the immediate reunification of Ireland, as 65% of people supported it and there was not a big demand for a border poll if there was a backstop.
Of course, if there was no deal then support for Irish unification was 55/42, so Sammy and his mates had better get some sort of EEA proposal going.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: armaghniac on December 10, 2018, 08:15:18 PM
Quote from: Rois on December 10, 2018, 07:42:28 PM
Sammy Wilson has just said on C4 News that the backstop proposal as it is currently proposed will lead to reunification of Ireland.

Of course, as per the Times poll last week the backstop will not lead to the immediate reunification of Ireland, as 65% of people supported it and there was not a big demand for a border poll if there was a backstop.
Of course, if there was no deal then support for Irish unification was 55/42, so Sammy and his mates had better get some sort of EEA proposal going.

Faha has analysed the most recent poll and the figures are interesting and very uncomfortable for gammon sammy. Sammy is actually correct the May proposal has UIvUK in a referendum at 50/50. The only problem for Sammy and the DUP is it rises to 60/40 pro UI if his no deal wet dream happens. The only thing that secures the union is if we go back 3 yrs and forget this sorry mess ever happened. Do that and support for UI collapses to 33%. Which really makes you wonder what the fook are the DUP playing at.

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/eu-withdrawal-agreement-and-a-border-poll/

mouview

Quote from: Rois on December 10, 2018, 07:42:28 PM
Sammy Wilson has just said on C4 News that the backstop proposal as it is currently proposed will lead to reunification of Ireland.

Smokin' Joe- are the DUP taking any notice of industry groups at all?

Sammy cut a rather disheveled figure on C4, with a florid face and shirt flopping out. Real spokesman for his tribe.

seafoid

Quote from: Rois on December 10, 2018, 07:42:28 PM
Sammy Wilson has just said on C4 News that the backstop proposal as it is currently proposed will lead to reunification of Ireland.

Smokin' Joe- are the DUP taking any notice of industry groups at all?

The DUP and the brexit heads are living a fantasy

Blanche Dubois in a streetcar named desire says " I don't want realism. I want magic" That is basically where Arlene is even if she is Protestant. It is total WTF


https://youtu.be/Sp_ZkjTIRiI

"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU