A United Ireland - The Nationalist Paradox

[imtommygunn]

They're the only party on the island with UI in their manifesto and they're the biggest party on the island, they're driving it at present and inviting collaboration, which the establishment in both states are roundly ignoring.

Unionists don't want it by definition, which is fine, equally as legitimate as Nationalists wanting it.

FF/FG in the south don't want it as they know it breaks the hegemony and puts them on the back foot, it would require them to deal with the 6 counties which they have no notion of doing.

SDLP while in serious decline are wedded to FF which puts them in no mans land.

Its kinda SF or nothing presently until others step up. I'd say the Tories would be more willing than anyone the way things are going.

I agree with what you're saying but I just don't think the collaboration you speak of is ever something that SF as a party can achieve with their "baggage". Another party on the nationalist side needs to step up to the plate here. There is a massive opportunity crying out for someone like the SDLP here and they are not taking it.

[Rossfan]

https://www.sdlp.ie/new_ireland_commission

[dublin7]

They're the only party on the island with UI in their manifesto and they're the biggest party on the island, they're driving it at present and inviting collaboration, which the establishment in both states are roundly ignoring.

Unionists don't want it by definition, which is fine, equally as legitimate as Nationalists wanting it.

FF/FG in the south don't want it as they know it breaks the hegemony and puts them on the back foot, it would require them to deal with the 6 counties which they have no notion of doing.

SDLP while in serious decline are wedded to FF which puts them in no mans land.

Its kinda SF or nothing presently until others step up. I'd say the Tories would be more willing than anyone the way things are going.

Why do people keep claiming FF/FG don't want a united Ireland? To be fair to them no on in the south really knows (or probably cares) if they do or not as it's not an issue at the moment. It has never been an issue come general elections and the public aren't pressuring them to focus on it.

As far as I can tell its only SF calling for this at the moment so why haven't they published their proposals, especially as they expect to be in government in the south after the next election

[Lar Naparka]

I  have said on occasion that I like the way EG goes about presenting his arguments. A master craftsman at work. If he were an architect, he could come up with the Taj Mahal- most of the time anyway.
But not on this occasion: this is more the Tower of Pisa than the oriental masterpiece.

For starters, I disagree with what I take to be his central premise.

'For since the GFA, the Constitutional future of NI is solely in the hands of the people of NI and no-one else. Further, it is only a majority who will ever decide, whether to stay within the UK, or join a UI. All else is bluster and flannel.'
There is the matter of the Republic's consent to be factored in.

I would say that a large majority in the south would back UI- but not at any cost.
If the referendum was to be held right now, the south would  quite probably vote no.
In 7 years time and if  Taigs and Prods could agree to work out their differences like  adults, the south might decide otherwise.
You have the Shinners reverting to type and giving the GFA the stiff finger salute over the burial of Bobby Storey, an avowed paramilitary. All that was missing was the  volley of shots over his coffin.
The Prods, predictably, got their collective knickers in a twist but many down here take a more dispassionate view of what happened. It is bad enough that the Shinners are still spoiling for a fight with the oul' enemy but the fact that there was a decidedly muted reaction for the moderate nationalist sector hasn't gone unnoticed either.
It's okay talking about UI as if it was only a case of sickening 'themmuns.'
I believe the reaction might very well be ' Must try harder. Come back in 7 years time.'
The fact that the DUP backed Brexit and now want to reject what Boris negotiated on their behalf hasn't gone unnoticed either.
Throw the fact that the dissent on the loyalist side has escalated to the point where there are clashes along the peace lines and EG's paradox won't even get a trial run.

EG has a view to which he is entitled, and I respect. However I'm finding it impossible to respect your view in bold above . Genuine question , can you explain to me where you get your  "knowledge" of the North? and please try to avoid lazy stereotypes and insults.

It might help if I knew WTF you are on about!
I too respect EG's point(s) of view. I am on record as saying that he is the best debater I know of and I see no reason to change my opinion of him because of his opening post of this thread.
However, it struck me forcibly that I can't recall a single norther poster, the great man included  who even considered that the people of the south might like to have a say in shaping the joint future of all on the island.
Why you think I will resort to stereotypes and insults is beyond me. It seems that my use of the pejorative terms, 'Taig' and 'Prod' upsets your sensibilities and I don't understand why. Those terms are in common use, in the north at any rate and I'm sure a lot worse terms are being hurled about right now.
the Constitutional future of NI is solely in the hands of the people of NI and no-one else.
I picked on this in EG's post and you seem to take exception to what I had to say about it.
Why?
I find it extremely offensive that on both sides of the sectarian divide, the feelings of the voters in the south are dismissed out of hand. This uis a topic EG has discussed/debated several (many?) times in the past and he apparently also sees the future of a UI as being a matter for Nationalists and Unionists to sort out between them.
THe fact that 70% of the combined total on this island are southerners and that we will inevitably be forced to dig deep into our pockets doesn't seem worthy of notice either.
Now, if there is anything I have said so far that you feel is factually incorrect, you might care to let me know.
What do you mean when you infer that I know nothing about the north? Anything I have said here can be picked up from current news media reports.
What is there to be known apart from the fact that cross-community strife has broken out once again. No one needs a degree in applied engineering to know that the old hatreds are still alive and vibrant and that if there isn't some serious effort made to heal or at least tone down sectarian differences, only a fool could expect the people of the south to willingly take all on board where they can continue fighting to their heart's content.
In short, a little bit of tact could go a long way and a word or two of recognition for the fact that southerners would like to think they have some right to have their op[inions listened to good be a goood idea also.

Apologies I quoted this bit in bold in error: " the Constitutional future of NI is solely in the hands of the people of NI and no-one else" , In quoting your original post .  It was actually only the bold bit relating to Prods , taigs that I was alluding to. Hard to get this quoting right🤦🏻‍♂️.
As a Mayo man I would have presumed you would try to understand the underdog a bit better.
The majority of the population of ireland as a whole backed the first Dáil. The result was that 26 counties managed to secure freedom from BritAin. Your freedom was basically attained through republicanism across the 32 counties but "republicans" in the 6 counties were cut loose from the 26 and left to fend for themselves. Some 100 years later you are trying to tell me that we should just continue to suck it up, coz I'm alright jack? And by the way "republicans" in the 6 should also behave "like adults " and cowtow to unionists , including our first minister who is a solicitor that thinks bus burners aren't the "real law breakers". You should be ashamed of yourself as a Mayoman who I suspect is a follower of the self-proclaimed "Republican Party".

On the subject of "taigs and prods" behaving "like adults" are you aware for example in that in the area I live in  ?~85% "nationalist/republican" there has been power sharing for nearly 50 years with the chair of the council rotating between n/r and unionist. We all work and are friends with people with unionist background . The problem here is that the leadership of the 6 counties remains in the hands of the supremacist DUP who are blocking progress. SF have a history that many find it hard to see beyond (understandably) but it hasn't helped the situation here when at times SF seem to be the only ones calling out the DUP, and then others present it as a DUP/SF issue.

I have to say you had me pretty confused!
Furthermore, I don't think you can follow what I am really trying to say. I have a much greater interest in northern affairs than the average southerner and I certainly do appreciate the difficulties you and moderate nationalists have to face on an ongoing basis.
But the average person down here is hardly aware of what goes on in the north any more that someone in Finchley or Solihull could be expected to have. I am very much aware that WT Cosgrave sold you out at the 1926 Boundary Commision negotiations and accepted Stanley Baldwin's offer to write off a few outstanding debts. Craig, Baldwin and Cosgrave shook hands and decided to shelve the report and that was that.
But the average citizen of the republic couldn't tell the difference between Stanley Baldwin and Stanley Matthews- or give a damn either way.
To understand my personal view, you'd need to keep what I told you about the Pioneers' excursion to Bundran many years ago.
A few lads decided to slip off to the nearest pub for a few jars, a row broke out which wasn't terribly serious and the poor Pioneers got blamed for calling out the riot police!
The fact that ,say, 90% of those who went to the seaside were completely blameless wasn't even considered -they were all tarred with the same brush!
For me, there is a parallel between what happened in Bundoran and what is happening in Northern Ireland now. I can understand your plight but most down here certainly do not.
Sinn Fein get all the column inches down here and the voice of moderate nationalism is not heard.
I am not sure you can understand this but most here have never heard of Colum Eastwood, let alone name the party he leads. The same can be said for every politician you have with the exception of the usual extremists such as Michelle and Arlene.
Right now, the north is getting plenty of exposure but what's coming through is the pitched battles between rival gangs across peace lines.
I am 100% certain that moderate nationalists like you and moderate Unionists like EG completely disassociate yourselves from what's going on but that doesn't come across on this side of the border- well, maybe it does to a small number butcertainly not to the majority.
For most, it's just another instance of Taigs v Prods.
(Granted very many wouldn't have heard the term Taig but they certainly understand its meaning.)
What about EG's paradox?
While I'd bet that every northern poster on this topic knows the ins and outs of the GFA down to the last full stop, the same can't be said for 95% plus this side of the border.

Thus,  "For since the GFA, the Constitutional future of NI is solely in the hands of the people of NI and no-one else. Further, it is only a majority who will ever decide, whether to stay within the UK, or join a UI. All else is bluster and flannel." is perfectly in line with the provisions of the GFA, it certainly won't come across in the same light down here if the prospect of a positive vote is likely.
Right now, I'm certain that a majority down here would have grave reservations about the prospect of the riots in northern Ireland being transferred down here.
PS I can't recalll that I said Taigs and Prods should behave like adults but that would be my porobable meaning.

[weareros]

Not sure I buy the South's government don't want a UI. The best thing they can do is get what's in their power ready and the Protocol was a huge step as it orients North's economy towards Dublin and Europe. The Loyalists rioting are not fools, nor are those egging them on. They can see this. Storey funeral will get the headlines, but even they know they were worse with their own funerals and Rangers celebrations. What sticks in their craw is there has been a constitutional displacement even if they still vote and pay tax in UK, and that's a big puck in the stomach. Between common electrical grid, common tourism, investments in rail, and the common agricultural policies enforced by protocol, the economic UI is in motion. Even the two ultimate losers the IFA and FAI are talking about an All-Ireland league. What could derail it is actually Biden of all people by going after our corporate tax, another recession if jobs flee the country, mass emigration again. It would be hard to see the middle ground voting for it if the South's economy tanked. But it's crazy to say no ones preparing. I imagine - or maybe I've watched too much Yes Minister - that civil servants are planning behind the scenes.

[Orior]

They're the only party on the island with UI in their manifesto and they're the biggest party on the island, they're driving it at present and inviting collaboration, which the establishment in both states are roundly ignoring.

Unionists don't want it by definition, which is fine, equally as legitimate as Nationalists wanting it.

FF/FG in the south don't want it as they know it breaks the hegemony and puts them on the back foot, it would require them to deal with the 6 counties which they have no notion of doing.

SDLP while in serious decline are wedded to FF which puts them in no mans land.

Its kinda SF or nothing presently until others step up. I'd say the Tories would be more willing than anyone the way things are going.

Why do people keep claiming FF/FG don't want a united Ireland? To be fair to them no on in the south really knows (or probably cares) if they do or not as it's not an issue at the moment. It has never been an issue come general elections and the public aren't pressuring them to focus on it.

As far as I can tell its only SF calling for this at the moment so why haven't they published their proposals, especially as they expect to be in government in the south after the next election

Could you imagine FF/FG deciding that Mayo was worth feck all, then governing over 25 counties while letting Mayo look after themselves? That is exactly what they're doing to Irish in the occupied six.

[Rossfan]

Of course Mayo should be forgotten about.
However Mayo people vote TDs to the in Dáil and they pay Tax to the 26 Co Revenue.
Maybe ye lads in the 6 could make an annual contribution ?
Say €500 per head?

[6th sam]

Not sure I buy the South's government don't want a UI. The best thing they can do is get what's in their power ready and the Protocol was a huge step as it orients North's economy towards Dublin and Europe. The Loyalists rioting are not fools, nor are those egging them on. They can see this. Storey funeral will get the headlines, but even they know they were worse with their own funerals and Rangers celebrations. What sticks in their craw is there has been a constitutional displacement even if they still vote and pay tax in UK, and that's a big puck in the stomach. Between common electrical grid, common tourism, investments in rail, and the common agricultural policies enforced by protocol, the economic UI is in motion. Even the two ultimate losers the IFA and FAI are talking about an All-Ireland league. What could derail it is actually Biden of all people by going after our corporate tax, another recession if jobs flee the country, mass emigration again. It would be hard to see the middle ground voting for it if the South's economy tanked. But it's crazy to say no ones preparing. I imagine - or maybe I've watched too much Yes Minister - that civil servants are planning behind the scenes.

Excellent post