Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[trailer]

It's an absolute game changer. Brexit has put it from not in my lifetime(I'm 40) to this could happen before I retire.

It is not remotely imminent and I get that but definitely goalposts have shifted significantly.

Who was the main party here behind it as well... the DUP. You couldn't make it up.

Someone earlier said that a border poll tomorrow would yield a 60/40 result in favour of remaining in the UK.  I think it would be much closer than that currently, but with the same outcome.  The GFA allows for a border poll every 7 years to test the water, but only after an initial border poll has been granted by the SoS.  So whether nationalism will win the first border poll seems to be irrelevant to SF at present, so long as they get a poll in the first place.  Personally, I'd prefer to see the groundwork being done and secure the win at the first poll, should that take the next 10 years to complete.

But one thing is for certain imo, a UI is now inevitable, and has been brought forward by a generation due to Brexit.  It is a matter of when, and not if.

This isn't correct. What the GFA says is that you cannot have another border poll until at least 7 years after the initial one. So if one is called and lost, it does not mean another will be called automatically 7 years later. It's in the gift of the British SOS to call it.

The nationalist community has a long way to travel before a border poll should be called. I mentioned I think in a different thread about British government paying their way and some of the responses were scary. "Britain shouldn't be involved" etc. Real silly immature stuff. So we need leadership on both sides but especially Nationalism. SF banging the unity now drum just plays to their base, but has no substance. The conversation should be opened up, but we're a good wile off poss 10 years +

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

McCallion was a terrible candidate. Numerous blunders. Plus the amount of people in Derry connected to or have relatives and friends in front line services would be fairly high. SF was always going to struggle to get their vote considering the strain they have been under.

Having been very close to canvasser at the doors the scale of the dissatisfaction with Elisha and SF was very very high. This is West of the Bann, which is far removed from Belfast in economics and services, there is no us v them headcount needed either which allows people to be honest in their voting.
Elisha was very poor throughout her tenure, she came across like she was more interested in make -up and hotel rooms than anything else. Blunders which involved major gaffs on hotel rooms in London, poor judgment on her husband's prosecution, the debt collector gaff, sherbet at the volunteer's dance in Ballybofey, James McClean begging letters, silly xmas cards. The whole town was making fun of it.
On top of all of that she made no inroads in any of the important issues in Derry-jobs, health, infrastructure, Magee etc.
Derry has a lot of  poor SF staff who are setting themselves up to run the communities through Peace IV and SIF backhanders. Abortion took 2k votes away also, and maybe more if people had have known before that  Colum would beat her easily. Aontú could have hit 4k if the scale of gap was known the week before, but people played it safe to get her out.

For us non Derry wans , can you elaborate more on these blunders/gaffs. Genuine question by the way.

She posted a pic on social media complaining about the hardships of having a tiny room on one of her Westminster trips(whilst SF ushered in welfare reforms-they apparently don't go to Westminster). It got widespread social media attention in Derry
Her husband attacked 2 pensioners(not her fault), but she approached them looking charges dropped.
She posted a video last week telling the people of Cornshell(working class area in Shantallow) to open their doors as it wasn't "debt collectors" it was SF. Boo Boo!
She sent letters to people's houses from James McClaen which more or less said, we know yous are not doing well in Derry at the minute but look who is one of my muckers.
2 very close associates in Galliagh SF(where she is from) sent pic out from volunteer's dinner in Ballybofey(they forgot there was Columbian party powder on table in pic).

A new age disaster of a politician.

[Walter Cronc]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

McCallion was a terrible candidate. Numerous blunders. Plus the amount of people in Derry connected to or have relatives and friends in front line services would be fairly high. SF was always going to struggle to get their vote considering the strain they have been under.

Having been very close to canvasser at the doors the scale of the dissatisfaction with Elisha and SF was very very high. This is West of the Bann, which is far removed from Belfast in economics and services, there is no us v them headcount needed either which allows people to be honest in their voting.
Elisha was very poor throughout her tenure, she came across like she was more interested in make -up and hotel rooms than anything else. Blunders which involved major gaffs on hotel rooms in London, poor judgment on her husband's prosecution, the debt collector gaff, sherbet at the volunteer's dance in Ballybofey, James McClean begging letters, silly xmas cards. The whole town was making fun of it.
On top of all of that she made no inroads in any of the important issues in Derry-jobs, health, infrastructure, Magee etc.
Derry has a lot of  poor SF staff who are setting themselves up to run the communities through Peace IV and SIF backhanders. Abortion took 2k votes away also, and maybe more if people had have known before that  Colum would beat her easily. Aontú could have hit 4k if the scale of gap was known the week before, but people played it safe to get her out.

For us non Derry wans , can you elaborate more on these blunders/gaffs. Genuine question by the way.

She posted a pic on social media complaining about the hardships of having a tiny room on one of her Westminster trips(whilst SF ushered in welfare reforms-they apparently don't go to Westminster). It got widespread social media attention in Derry
Her husband attacked 2 pensioners(not her fault), but she approached them looking charges dropped.
She posted a video last week telling the people of Cornshell(working class area in Shantallow) to open their doors as it wasn't "debt collectors" it was SF. Boo Boo!
She sent letters to people's houses from James McClaen which more or less said, we know yous are not doing well in Derry at the minute but look who is one of my muckers.
2 very close associates in Galliagh SF(where she is from) sent pic out from volunteer's dinner in Ballybofey(they forgot there was Columbian party powder on table in pic).

A new age disaster of a politician.

What is it with certain women in SF at the minute - O'Neill, Anderson, McCallion, Hardy - all absolute melts!!

[RadioGAAGAA]

... and Michelle Gildernew is one of the best people they have.

Unfortunately is the eejits getting the airtime.

[Eamonnca1]

belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/ruth-dudley-edwards/ruth-dudley-edwards-my-euphoria-at-seeing-the-uk-rescued-from-extremists-who-would-have-destroyed-it-38787183.html...

"English voters .. will always choose moderation.
Culturally, they are sensible, patriotic (in the best sense of the word), suspicious of ideology, pragmatic and opposed to extremism of any kind. "

I'll have some of what she's having.

[Eamonnca1]

Like I said earlier you'd really need to question yourself if you ballot to remain part of the UK if you're a nationalist, the stats for everyone to look at have to be perfect, and the Irish government would need to bend over backwards to appeal to the soft unionists that financially it's s great choice, and for a good period be able to self govern so things can be bed in.

Hardly. The Irish economy tends to collapse every 20-30 years or so. 11 years ago we ended up coming within a hair's breadth of having neither dole paid nor money in ATM machines. In addition our tax burden is much heavier than up north and ain't getting any lighter.

That was also true in every country on the planet. It was a global financial collapse that was averted, not a local one.

[Eamonnca1]

It's not O'Neill's leadership. It's not going to work. Either in Stormont or Westminster. Replacing O'Neill and not turning up won't make any difference. You have to go to your work and sort Education and Health and Infrastructure and Agriculture. SF aren't doing that and they will continue to be punished by the electorate.

It is O'Neill.

If you asked me to name the biggest obstruction to a United Ireland right now - I'd say its Michelle O'Neill.

They should not be talking about a border poll.

I agree.

They should instead be
- constantly pointing out what would become better in the North if there was a United Ireland.
- publishing studies on how a transition might be managed.
- publishing frameworks for protecting Ulster-Scots culture.
- publishing forecasts on economic growth as a result of unification.

... and I don't mean get their own to draw up the above. I mean inviting academics and experts from across the world (I'm sure the EU and ROI would be interested in funding some of it anyway) to compile studies, recommendations and projections.

They actually did this already, and they "launched" it twice in an attempt to give it some publicity. They got independent experts to assess it and they found that reunification would boost GDP through the elimination of duplicated public services. That was before Brexit, mind you.

[Milltown Row2]

Like I said earlier you'd really need to question yourself if you ballot to remain part of the UK if you're a nationalist, the stats for everyone to look at have to be perfect, and the Irish government would need to bend over backwards to appeal to the soft unionists that financially it's s great choice, and for a good period be able to self govern so things can be bed in.

Hardly. The Irish economy tends to collapse every 20-30 years or so. 11 years ago we ended up coming within a hair's breadth of having neither dole paid nor money in ATM machines. In addition our tax burden is much heavier than up north and ain't getting any lighter.

That was also true in every country on the planet. It was a global financial collapse that was averted, not a local one.

Greece and Italy were in similar debts

[Eamonnca1]

A border poll is far down the list of things that need to happen between now an Irish reunification. Higher on the list is the desegregation of society in the north along religious lines, but I don't see a whole lot of progress being made on that front. SF have had the education portfolio for years and were able to scrap the grammar school system over the objections of recalcitrant people who wanted to retain selection, but don't seem to have the same eagerness for scrapping the unacceptable practice of keeping school kids segregated by religion until they go to the tech or go to Uni.

In fact SF's business model seems to be "complain about how unfairly treated we are by the evil Brits and that should keep the votes coming in." They'll probably spend the next decade banging on about why we need a border poll now and how unreasonable the Brits are for not providing one.

[Milltown Row2]

A border poll is far down the list of things that need to happen between now an Irish reunification. Higher on the list is the desegregation of society in the north along religious lines, but I don't see a whole lot of progress being made on that front. SF have had the education portfolio for years and were able to scrap the grammar school system over the objections of recalcitrant people who wanted to retain selection, but don't seem to have the same eagerness for scrapping the unacceptable practice of keeping school kids segregated by religion until they go to the tech or go to Uni.

In fact SF's business model seems to be "complain about how unfairly treated we are by the evil Brits and that should keep the votes coming in." They'll probably spend the next decade banging on about why we need a border poll now and how unreasonable the Brits are for not providing one.

Scrapping the grammar schools? When did this happen?

[gallsman]

Yeah, would be very interested in knowing when that happened.

[seafoid]

Like I said earlier you'd really need to question yourself if you ballot to remain part of the UK if you're a nationalist, the stats for everyone to look at have to be perfect, and the Irish government would need to bend over backwards to appeal to the soft unionists that financially it's s great choice, and for a good period be able to self govern so things can be bed in.

Hardly. The Irish economy tends to collapse every 20-30 years or so. 11 years ago we ended up coming within a hair's breadth of having neither dole paid nor money in ATM machines. In addition our tax burden is much heavier than up north and ain't getting any lighter.

That was also true in every country on the planet. It was a global financial collapse that was averted, not a local one.

The Irish economy is low corporate tax and extremely open so when there is a crisis it tends to be extremely volatile

[Rossfan]

A border poll is far down the list of things that need to happen between now an Irish reunification. Higher on the list is the desegregation of society in the north along religious lines, but I don't see a whole lot of progress being made on that front. SF have had the education portfolio for years and were able to scrap the grammar school system over the objections of recalcitrant people who wanted to retain selection, but don't seem to have the same eagerness for scrapping the unacceptable practice of keeping school kids segregated by religion until they go to the tech or go to Uni.

In fact SF's business model seems to be "complain about how unfairly treated we are by the evil Brits and that should keep the votes coming in." They'll probably spend the next decade banging on about why we need a border poll now and how unreasonable the Brits are for not providing one.

Ahh the magic bullet of integrated education.
Will these schools teach Irish history, Gaelige, do gaelic games?

[smelmoth]

A border poll is far down the list of things that need to happen between now an Irish reunification. Higher on the list is the desegregation of society in the north along religious lines, but I don't see a whole lot of progress being made on that front. SF have had the education portfolio for years and were able to scrap the grammar school system over the objections of recalcitrant people who wanted to retain selection, but don't seem to have the same eagerness for scrapping the unacceptable practice of keeping school kids segregated by religion until they go to the tech or go to Uni.

In fact SF's business model seems to be "complain about how unfairly treated we are by the evil Brits and that should keep the votes coming in." They'll probably spend the next decade banging on about why we need a border poll now and how unreasonable the Brits are for not providing one.

Ahh the magic bullet of integrated education.
Will these schools teach Irish history, Gaelige, do gaelic games?

Yes

[smelmoth]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves there are a lot of bridges to cross before we can even think about a UI. Speaking of bridges, we have to consider the people who want to build a bridge to Scotland as a way of strengthening the union. As warped as they are, they need to realise that they would have much more clout in Dáil Éireann than they ever will in the House of Commons. That won't be an easy task.
I don't think we will see a UI for at least another generation, probably two. I'm 52 now, I doubt I will see it, but it is definitely closer now than it ever has been at any time in my lifetime.

The funny thing about the bridge is that if there is going to be a sea border then there'd need to be a border between NI and Scotland on that bridge I would expect so in the highly(highly highly highly highly etc) unlikely scenario they got their bridge they'd get a border too and wouldn't like that)

Chances of there ever being a bridge is zero