Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[glens abu]

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

Think you must have the wrong party here,what evidence have you of this ever happening.

[deiseach]

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

Think you must have the wrong party here,what evidence have you of this ever happening.

A little knowledge of Irish politics. Look at what happened to Mary O'Rourke in 2002 when they put Donie Cassidy as her running mate in their quest for a second seat. He took hers and poor Mary ended up in the wilderness of the Seanad for five years. I suppose 'no chance' is a bit strong. After all, the SF politburo head office could insist on another candidate. But have you any evidence that this is going to happen?

[glens abu]

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

Think you must have the wrong party here,what evidence have you of this ever happening.

A little knowledge of Irish politics. Look at what happened to Mary O'Rourke in 2002 when they put Donie Cassidy as her running mate in their quest for a second seat. He took hers and poor Mary ended up in the wilderness of the Seanad for five years. I suppose 'no chance' is a bit strong. After all, the SF politburo head office could insist on another candidate. But have you any evidence that this is going to happen?

I can assure you that if SF think they have the slightest chance of a 2nd seat they will not miss out.

[deiseach]

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

Think you must have the wrong party here,what evidence have you of this ever happening.

A little knowledge of Irish politics. Look at what happened to Mary O'Rourke in 2002 when they put Donie Cassidy as her running mate in their quest for a second seat. He took hers and poor Mary ended up in the wilderness of the Seanad for five years. I suppose 'no chance' is a bit strong. After all, the SF politburo head office could insist on another candidate. But have you any evidence that this is going to happen?

I can assure you that if SF think they have the slightest chance of a 2nd seat they will not miss out.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge of SF. They always claimed to be different to the rest and that would make then very different

[glens abu]

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

Think you must have the wrong party here,what evidence have you of this ever happening.

A little knowledge of Irish politics. Look at what happened to Mary O'Rourke in 2002 when they put Donie Cassidy as her running mate in their quest for a second seat. He took hers and poor Mary ended up in the wilderness of the Seanad for five years. I suppose 'no chance' is a bit strong. After all, the SF politburo head office could insist on another candidate. But have you any evidence that this is going to happen?

I can assure you that if SF think they have the slightest chance of a 2nd seat they will not miss out.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge of SF. They always claimed to be different to the rest and that would make then very different

Cheers Deiseach,we in N.Belfast have just selected a 3rd candadate to run in the next Assembly elections to try and squeeze that  seat away from the SDLP.Always looking for more seats .

[muppet]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe. Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

I was under the impression that the Mammy wasn't going to run in the next election. If she doesn't, will she then be renamed the Granny?

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

Ah lads, surely the Mammy's agenda is crystal clear.

[turk]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe. Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

I was under the impression that the Mammy wasn't going to run in the next election. If she doesn't, will she then be renamed the Granny?

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

I don't think Longford will get three TDs in. You've three big towns in the constituency and that will become a factor too, with each town getting a split and candidates looking to represent a town as well.  I don't think FF will run Donie Cassidy and I am not sure if Mary O'Rourke will be up for election again. If she isn't then McFadden could take a seat for FG in Athlone, with the other FG seat being held by Bannon. Penrose will take a seat for Labour, and if Sexton polls well it will affect Kelly more and put him at risk. Having said that FF should have enough for one quota in a rural four seat constituency so one of Kelly, whoever they run in Athlone and Mullingar should get in. The Mullingar hospital will become a big election potato as well. It's a hairy one.

[turk]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Is John Leahy definitely running LS?

Seems to be the case.

http://www.offalyexpress.ie/news/Leahy-declares-Dil-ambition.6404048.jp

And for those who can't be bothered to click into the link, it actually states that he intends to run for the Dáil, as opposed to incorporate plenty of dill herbs into his diet. Perhaps he does that anyway, it doesn't say.

I might be overestimating his chances, but I'd definitely give him a shout. He should have plenty of uncontested territory anyway.

There are a lot of votes to be picked up in that area. good stuff

[Bogball XV]

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

Ah lads, surely the Mammy's agenda is crystal clear.
[/quote]
Looking to do well by her boys?  One of them is virtually unelectable and the other is an awful eejit - just realised that doesn't clarify it at all 

[muppet]

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

Ah lads, surely the Mammy's agenda is crystal clear.

Looking to do well by her boys?  One of them is virtually unelectable and the other is an awful eejit - just realised that doesn't clarify it at all 
[/quote]

Lenihan family motto: Always a Tánaiste and never a Bride.

The first step would be to become leader of FF and that would have to happen sooner rather than later as Lenny's stock is going down faster than a Cowen pint.

[Bogball XV]

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

Ah lads, surely the Mammy's agenda is crystal clear.

Looking to do well by her boys?  One of them is virtually unelectable and the other is an awful eejit - just realised that doesn't clarify it at all 

Lenihan family motto: Always a Tánaiste and never a Bride.

The first step would be to become leader of FF and that would have to happen sooner rather than later as Lenny's stock is going down faster than a Cowen pint.
[/quote]
Right, we all know that Lenihan has health issues, extremely serious issues - I honestly do have every sympathy for him and his family and I don't want to talk about it here, but enough is enough, surely he cannot contemplate running for the dail again?

[An Gaeilgoir]

Looks like it's time to dust this thread off. Election time after 2pm today, i 'd say.

[Banana Man]

Looks like it's time to dust this thread off. Election time after 2pm today, i 'd say.

Yeah, if they hold of any longer the defence forces will have to oragnise a military coup to force elections like tunisia ffs

[GalwayBayBoy]

Looks like it's time to dust this thread off. Election time after 2pm today, i 'd say.

Hopefully. This farce has gone on long enough.

[Declan]

11th March is the day. Double jobbing minsters till then