Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[Bogball XV]

Cowley would seem to be pretty strong now that he has a party behind him, does Bev honestly have a chance?  It would be a disgrace if she made it.

[thebandit]

Cavan Monaghan

Ó Caoláin (SF) will top the poll
Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon (FF) are probably safe
Seymour Crawford will get elected on the first count (as improbable as that sounded in the past!!)
The fifth seat is currently Rory O'Hanlon's (FF) who is the ceann comhairle, who was elected unopposed last time. He is unlikely to run.
Fine Gael most likely run Joe O'Reilly in Cavan, and he would be very likely to get elected.
Fianna Fail will probably run another candidate in Monaghan, probably Padraig McNally from Carrickmacross. The only way they would get elected is if they took Margaret Conlon's seat.
Labour will run a candidate - unlikely to get elected.

SF 1
FF 2
FG 2

FG gain from FF

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?

He possibly will have a running mate this time, either Matt Carthy (South Monaghan) or Pauline Tully-McCauley (Cavan). This would mean that Ó'Caoláin wouldn't top the poll (Crawford probably would). But I couldn't see them having enough to pull 2 over the line. 

[RedandGreenSniper]

Last election in Mayo, 2007 - from www.electionsireland.org - great website for political anoraks. Can't see JOM's vote holding. And look at the first preference for the two FFs. Those figures will drop hugely. No way two of them will get in.

*  Enda Kenny       14,717    20.62%    1.24    1       Made Quota      1 
*  Michael Ring       11,412    15.99%    0.96    2       Made Quota      2 
John O'Mahony5       6,869    9.62%    0.58    8       Made Quota      3 
Dara Calleary       7,225    10.12%    0.61    8       Elected      4 
*  Beverley Flynn       6,779    9.50%    0.57    8       Elected      5 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  John Carty2       5,889    8.25%    0.49    (       Not Elected       
Michelle Mulherin       5,428    7.60%    0.46    (7)       Eliminated       
*  Jerry Cowley       3,407    4.77%    0.29    (6)       Eliminated       
Frank Chambers       4,345    6.09%    0.37    (5)       Eliminated       
Gerry Murray3       3,608    5.05%    0.30    (4)       Eliminated       
Harry Barrett       831    1.16%    0.07    (3)       No expenses       
Peter Enright       580    0.81%    0.05    (3)       No expenses       
Tommy Cooke       296    0.41%    0.02    (3)       No expenses     

[Zapatista]

He possibly will have a running mate this time, either Matt Carthy (South Monaghan) or Pauline Tully-McCauley (Cavan). This would mean that Ó'Caoláin wouldn't top the poll (Crawford probably would). But I couldn't see them having enough to pull 2 over the line.

Something of interest.

http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/redc-nov-2010-projections/

It's obviously only for discussion but it is based on a science. It says SF could take two in C/M. It also disagrees with my view of Dublin West.

[Capt Pat]

Fianna Fail shouod be wiped out in the next election, but does anyone really think it will happen? Tyey will still get 30-40 per cent depending on how well they campaign.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

RTE News now, the b**tards  Shame on you and shame on all of you who will vote for them, they are an Evil Undemocratic Junta.

would you ever shut up

Why they are undemocratic b**tards.

Id love to live in your world

What world is that? The one where the skulduggery of Fianna Fail for the best part of 30 years is unacceptable! Jesus you apologists make me sick 

Ha, im no FF apologist nor am i a ranting, raving lunatic that cant seperate rabid hatred no matter how valid, from some sense of sober judgement or analysis.

You obviously dont know the laws and constitution of the country spouting stuff about undemocatic and juntas.

Yes Brian I understand that Dáil Éireann is elected for 5 years, you keep telling us. Fianna Fail bases their so called democratic legitimacy on a technical majority in the Dáil, but they will not call all the bye elections. Yes I know they claim they do not have to hold these bye elections, but the courts disagree. By not holding these bye elections and using a technical majority they are acting undemocratically.
A Junta is not necessarily a Military government, despite seeing the Gardai (yes I know not the army) force a protestor to the ground so government ministers did not have to face a protestor inside their government mercs. A junta can also be a government form involving a Union, a coalition is a type of union.
Evil - "Evil is intentionally causing harm or destruction, or deliberately violating some moral code." (Yes I know there are better references than wiki)  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil

Brian??!! Obviously you are incapable of mature debate. If you have to tarnish somebody that disagrees with your babbling rants as being a FF supporter then you have a skewed and warped view of things im afraid!

Well I believe Fianna Fail to be undemocratic (see above), I believe them to be evil (see above) and in a less common usage of the word, yes indeed one part of a junta.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

I didn't realise Cowley has joined Labour; I had heard rumours alright but I didn't know that he had made the move. Labour may not have a strong presence in the county but having a national party behind him can only boost his election chances. It should mean more canvassers on the doorsteps and more cars on voting day and increased media attention. When you add in the Labour swell you mentioned, his chance of a seat has greatly increased.
With Enda being the odds on favourite to become the next Taoiseach, FG's vote should certainly increase but it will be next to impossible to take four seats out of five. You would need effective vote management for this and it is going to be a straight dogfight between Mickey and Enda for the first two seats and Johnno and Michelle for the fourth and fifth ones. No one does voting transfers like FF and Calleary should be safe enough with Bev still in contention for the fifth and final one. Stranger things have happened-in Mayo especially. Long Paddy might still have enough influence to get his daughter over the line but it's a long shot.
I can't see Enda outpolling Mickey. Last election, Enda conducted a very successful national campaign but still came in behind his chief rival.Enda was the preferred choice for Taoiseach in nationwide polls but Mickey gave him the two fingers when it came to first preferences in his home patch.
Bejaysus! The craic is going to  be mighty when the campaign starts in Mayo!

I forgot that about Cowley joining Labour, I would find it hard to vote for the man unless I was assured FG could pull off 4 and Labour 1. I really don't think this will happening, Callery should poll well in the Ballina area and amond diehard FF's who don't want to admit or accept any blame being attached to their traditional party of choice.

[Pangurban]

This would be very entertaining if it were not so sad and serious. The most gullible electorate in Europe, voting like Turkeys for Christmas. Unless and until you are prepared to effect real change, you would be as well remaining at Home on polling day

[Lone Shark]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Is John Leahy definitely running LS?

Seems to be the case.

http://www.offalyexpress.ie/news/Leahy-declares-Dil-ambition.6404048.jp

And for those who can't be bothered to click into the link, it actually states that he intends to run for the Dáil, as opposed to incorporate plenty of dill herbs into his diet. Perhaps he does that anyway, it doesn't say.

I might be overestimating his chances, but I'd definitely give him a shout. He should have plenty of uncontested territory anyway.

[muppet]

This would be very entertaining if it were not so sad and serious. The most gullible electorate in Europe, voting like Turkeys for Christmas. Unless and until you are prepared to effect real change, you would be as well remaining at Home on polling day

Meaning leave FF in charge?

[seafoid]

Cavan Monaghan

Ó Caoláin (SF) will top the poll
Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon (FF) are probably safe
Seymour Crawford will get elected on the first count (as improbable as that sounded in the past!!)
The fifth seat is currently Rory O'Hanlon's (FF) who is the ceann comhairle, who was elected unopposed last time. He is unlikely to run.
Fine Gael most likely run Joe O'Reilly in Cavan, and he would be very likely to get elected.
Fianna Fail will probably run another candidate in Monaghan, probably Padraig McNally from Carrickmacross. The only way they would get elected is if they took Margaret Conlon's seat.
Labour will run a candidate - unlikely to get elected.

SF 1
FF 2
FG 2

FG gain from FF

how many people on Cavan Monaghan are in negative equity?  That is going to go against FF. 

[deiseach]

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?

He might do. But there's no chance Ó Caoláin will allow a colleague in who could spike his guns in the future when the votes are less plentiful. First rule of Irish politics (which is part of the overall problem) - mind thy seat

[Croí na hÉireann]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe. Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

I was under the impression that the Mammy wasn't going to run in the next election. If she doesn't, will she then be renamed the Granny?

[An Gaeilgoir]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe. Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

I was under the impression that the Mammy wasn't going to run in the next election. If she doesn't, will she then be renamed the Granny?

From the outside looking in, i think Mammy/Granny will do ok as she seems to be telling it how is and hat may stand to her.

[Lone Shark]

I'd be very slow to write off d'mammy. She was on Midlands Radio there yesterday and as is always the case, she was very impressive. She never backs down from the media unlike so many others, and she also attempts to answer questions honestly, no bluff and bluster.

Of course she's still going to vote with the FF party so it's not like I'd still vote for her, but I certainly wouldn't write her off. I'd say her vote could hold better than Kelly's if push came to shove.