Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[LaurelEye]

I can't see FF getting 35 seats if they are on 17% in the polls. They will be wiped out in Dublin and commuterland.

If they're on 17%, then they're f*cked in more places than Dublin and commuterland.

They will end up running two or three candidates in a constituency - either because they are sitting TDs or because of geography - to share out that 17%, with the result that transfers will go astray and they'll get no seat at all. Back in 2002, FG got 22% of the vote but only 31 seats because of the same problem.

FF on 17% would probably get about 25 seats max. and it could actually be worse than that.

I think they will benefit by being in opposition in tough times. People will forget they got us here, and if they make the right noises, which they are masters at, they'll be a big threat in 4 or 8 years again.

I don't think people will forget this that quickly. The depth of the bust is just too deep.

Once CnaG were kicked out in 1932, they didn't get back in again for another 16 years, and they've still not outpolled FF in a general election since.

Especially if a Fine Gael Labour coalition tears itself apart.

The question might well be what replaces FF on the political landscape.

[turk]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Is John Leahy definitely running LS?

[Shamrock Shore]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe. Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

[RedandGreenSniper]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

[LaurelEye]

Laurel.

How do you see Longford/Westmeath panning out.

Peter 'Pause' Kelly (FF) is surely safe

I'd really wonder about that. I don't see anything that he's done that would save him from a general swing against FF. I don't think the conventional wisdom will hold this time round. The dam will burst, and you'll see people elected - and defeated - who no-one was expecting.

as is, God forgive us, James Bannon. Penrose (Lab) is safe.

Yep.

Mammy could be under pressure but there is no way Bannon would bring in a second FG seat. Penrose may a second Labour seat (Mae Sexton will have a good transfer rate) and thereby putting Mammy out to pasture.

So - nailing colours to the mast in my former homestead.

FF 1
FG 1
Lab 2

I expect the first two seats to go to Penrose and Bannon. The third seat will go to Sexton if she can get and stay ahead of Kelly. The last seat I expect to be between McFadden and whoever the Westmeath FF candidate is. If FF are on 17%, then no FF seat is safe.

[Bogball XV]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

But what's the point of having a budget now, when, one assumes, it will be replaced by a supplementary budget in February?

I would prefer FF to call a halt to any budgetary decisions for a few weeks, have an election now with each party setting their budgetary proposals out and let us vote based on their proposals (presuming the feckers actually do what they say this time)

It appears a FG-led government would let the budget stand. This is what Michael Noonan said yesterday - they would implement the four-year plan as regards deficit targets, but from Budget 2012 on the would put their own stamp on it as regards the revenue/expenditure balance.

So their reason for taking power is what exactly??

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

Micheal Kilcoyne, ex of Labour could do quite will in the Castlebar area, in fact he would be a strong candidate for Labour if they where still on terms. I'm sure he would be sympathetic of a government involving Labour and a vote for him may be seen as a vote for an alternative vote. Will Harry Barratt be Labour's man in Mayo again this time? I think Gerry Murray will do better than Cowley to be honest. I would put O'Mahoney, Flynn and Murray ahead of Cowley. Cowley is not popular in Mayo's biggest town Castlebar and has lost much of his North Mayo base. Kilcoyne would be an interesting one, very hard to see how well he would do, he could be a surprise package if he run.

[Bogball XV]

The new Government (and possibly the one after that) will be handicapped by the budget passed in line 1. If they don't vote for the budget they will be attacked as acting against the National Interest.

The budget is just a piece of legislation, it can be totally rescinded as the first act of the new dail if the new govt wants to, which makes the decision to stay in until this is passed utterly pointless.

[belleaqua]

RTE News now, the b**tards  Shame on you and shame on all of you who will vote for them, they are an Evil Undemocratic Junta.

would you ever shut up

Why they are undemocratic b**tards.

Id love to live in your world

What world is that? The one where the skulduggery of Fianna Fail for the best part of 30 years is unacceptable! Jesus you apologists make me sick 

Ha, im no FF apologist nor am i a ranting, raving lunatic that cant seperate rabid hatred no matter how valid, from some sense of sober judgement or analysis.

You obviously dont know the laws and constitution of the country spouting stuff about undemocatic and juntas.

Yes Brian I understand that Dáil Éireann is elected for 5 years, you keep telling us. Fianna Fail bases their so called democratic legitimacy on a technical majority in the Dáil, but they will not call all the bye elections. Yes I know they claim they do not have to hold these bye elections, but the courts disagree. By not holding these bye elections and using a technical majority they are acting undemocratically.
A Junta is not necessarily a Military government, despite seeing the Gardai (yes I know not the army) force a protestor to the ground so government ministers did not have to face a protestor inside their government mercs. A junta can also be a government form involving a Union, a coalition is a type of union.
Evil - "Evil is intentionally causing harm or destruction, or deliberately violating some moral code." (Yes I know there are better references than wiki)  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil

Brian??!! Obviously you are incapable of mature debate. If you have to tarnish somebody that disagrees with your babbling rants as being a FF supporter then you have a skewed and warped view of things im afraid!

[RedandGreenSniper]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

Micheal Kilcoyne, ex of Labour could do quite will in the Castlebar area, in fact he would be a strong candidate for Labour if they where still on terms. I'm sure he would be sympathetic of a government involving Labour and a vote for him may be seen as a vote for an alternative vote. Will Harry Barratt be Labour's man in Mayo again this time? I think Gerry Murray will do better than Cowley to be honest. I would put O'Mahoney, Flynn and Murray ahead of Cowley. Cowley is not popular in Mayo's biggest town Castlebar and has lost much of his North Mayo base. Kilcoyne would be an interesting one, very hard to see how well he would do, he could be a surprise package if he run.

Cowley is running for Labour - that is what will be the key difference for him. Surely his siding for the Corrib protesters looks better now than it did in 2007? Murray a very capable guy but haven't heard a sound from him since the local elections. Not certain than he'll run. Maybe Therese Ruane will but it would be some performance to go from not getting into Mayo County Council (although only marginally) in 2009 to getting into the Dail less than two years later. But this is the kind of election where form and even the profile of the candidates may have little enough to do with matters. Local issues and local personalities will have very little to do with it.

[seafoid]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

Is John Leahy definitely running LS?

I think the situation demands a poem . That fella with the wooden leg, was he FF ? 

[Lar Naparka]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

I didn't realise Cowley has joined Labour; I had heard rumours alright but I didn't know that he had made the move. Labour may not have a strong presence in the county but having a national party behind him can only boost his election chances. It should mean more canvassers on the doorsteps and more cars on voting day and increased media attention. When you add in the Labour swell you mentioned, his chance of a seat has greatly increased.
With Enda being the odds on favourite to become the next Taoiseach, FG's vote should certainly increase but it will be next to impossible to take four seats out of five. You would need effective vote management for this and it is going to be a straight dogfight between Mickey and Enda for the first two seats and Johnno and Michelle for the fourth and fifth ones. No one does voting transfers like FF and Calleary should be safe enough with Bev still in contention for the fifth and final one. Stranger things have happened-in Mayo especially. Long Paddy might still have enough influence to get his daughter over the line but it's a long shot.
I can't see Enda outpolling Mickey. Last election, Enda conducted a very successful national campaign but still came in behind his chief rival.Enda was the preferred choice for Taoiseach in nationwide polls but Mickey gave him the two fingers when it came to first preferences in his home patch.
Bejaysus! The craic is going to  be mighty when the campaign starts in Mayo!

[Peter Solan the Great]

In Mayo Ring and Kenny will cruise in, both on the first count I think. With Enda probably first. I think Mulherin will overtake O'Mahony and take the third seat. There's a seat for FF probably. Whether it'll be Flynn or Calleary I don't know. Someone mentioned an independent in north Mayo damaging Calleary. Well Michael Kilcoyne will damage Flynn in Castlebar if he runs. And he might sneak a seat. I reckon Calleary will take the fourth seat. Jerry Cowley could come in on the Labour swell which I think will be very strong. He'll sneak ahead of Flynn, O'Mahony and Kilcoyne. Sinn Fein's Gerry Murray could do well but he has been very quiet thus far so he'd have no momentum.

I didn't realise Cowley has joined Labour; I had heard rumours alright but I didn't know that he had made the move. Labour may not have a strong presence in the county but having a national party behind him can only boost his election chances. It should mean more canvassers on the doorsteps and more cars on voting day and increased media attention. When you add in the Labour swell you mentioned, his chance of a seat has greatly increased.
With Enda being the odds on favourite to become the next Taoiseach, FG's vote should certainly increase but it will be next to impossible to take four seats out of five. You would need effective vote management for this and it is going to be a straight dogfight between Mickey and Enda for the first two seats and Johnno and Michelle for the fourth and fifth ones. No one does voting transfers like FF and Calleary should be safe enough with Bev still in contention for the fifth and final one. Stranger things have happened-in Mayo especially. Long Paddy might still have enough influence to get his daughter over the line but it's a long shot.
I can't see Enda outpolling Mickey. Last election, Enda conducted a very successful national campaign but still came in behind his chief rival.Enda was the preferred choice for Taoiseach in nationwide polls but Mickey gave him the two fingers when it came to first preferences in his home patch.
Bejaysus! The craic is going to  be mighty when the campaign starts in Mayo!

Enda was elected on the first count. Michael Ring got elected on the second count with transfers from Enda. Enda topped the poll. Your thinging of 2002 when Enda got in by the skin of his teeth on what i think was the 10th count.

[thebandit]

Cavan Monaghan

Ó Caoláin (SF) will top the poll
Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon (FF) are probably safe
Seymour Crawford will get elected on the first count (as improbable as that sounded in the past!!)
The fifth seat is currently Rory O'Hanlon's (FF) who is the ceann comhairle, who was elected unopposed last time. He is unlikely to run.
Fine Gael most likely run Joe O'Reilly in Cavan, and he would be very likely to get elected.
Fianna Fail will probably run another candidate in Monaghan, probably Padraig McNally from Carrickmacross. The only way they would get elected is if they took Margaret Conlon's seat.
Labour will run a candidate - unlikely to get elected.

SF 1
FF 2
FG 2

FG gain from FF

[Zapatista]

Cavan Monaghan

Ó Caoláin (SF) will top the poll
Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon (FF) are probably safe
Seymour Crawford will get elected on the first count (as improbable as that sounded in the past!!)
The fifth seat is currently Rory O'Hanlon's (FF) who is the ceann comhairle, who was elected unopposed last time. He is unlikely to run.
Fine Gael most likely run Joe O'Reilly in Cavan, and he would be very likely to get elected.
Fianna Fail will probably run another candidate in Monaghan, probably Padraig McNally from Carrickmacross. The only way they would get elected is if they took Margaret Conlon's seat.
Labour will run a candidate - unlikely to get elected.

SF 1
FF 2
FG 2

FG gain from FF

Would Ó Caoláin be able to bring in a running mate? Would there be enough transfers in Cavan/Monahan to bring another SF candidate over the line at the expence of a FF candidate?