The 'unionist minority'

[deiseach]

these days a united Ireland is still desirable, but with no violence or persecution on any side its all down to a big enough incentive for all sides that will have to come from the british gov.

So what 'incentive' would be big enough to induce you to plump for the Union over a united Ireland?

[ardmhachaabu]

According to these statistics the population of the 26 counties after 1921 declined from 7%.  Sorry Roger comparing like with like on this one is incorrect.  The proportion of Nationalists in the North post-partition far outweighed the proportion of unionists in the south.

The comparison was about the one-sided interference in affairs of the other's state.  I believe it to be relevant to the discussion and the unionists lack of will to deal with the Eire state or even consider it with any interest.  Unionists aren't interested in the place so why do people feel frustrated that they lack desire to unnecessarily (prematurely at best) "negotiate" their own demise with the place? 

It's in their best interests to do so in the grand scheme of things when you look at Europe and what Europe wants.  An agreed Ireland (to borrow a phrase) would reap the benefits of EU finding as well as the increase of inward investment.  There are a lot of people worldwide who would be prepared to fund such a bold political project.  I accept it could take a generation or 2 to get to that point.  Ireland is already treated as one unit by the EU, borders are increasingly irrelevant in Europe and as the EU further expands will become even less relevant.  When I say that it's inevitable, I mean it from a pragmatic political viewpoint and not some kind of misguided patriotism.

Europe is irrevant in terms of NI's constitutional position as an integral part of the UK.  If pragmatic politics is selling your nationality because other states will pay for it to happen then you can keep that. I personally couldn't give a toss what Europe wants for NI on this matter or is prepared to fund if it gets it. I'd be certain that there will be no change to the constitutional position of NI until NI consents to any such change, and that the EU will have nothing to do with it.

Ostrich politics.

Europe is important but not relevant concerning the sovereignty of countries within it.  If Europe wanted ROI to reunify with UK would you consider the obvious ROI response as Ostrich Politics?

Why would Europe want that?

The funny thing about the unionist position in all of this is that they would be in a very strong position in terms of the politics of the entire island, so much so that they could become part of ANY coalition government because of the PR style of voting.  Still I suppose it's better to be obstinately thick about the bigger picture 

[deiseach]

The funny thing about the unionist position in all of this is that they would be in a very strong position in terms of the politics of the entire island, so much so that they could become part of ANY coalition government because of the PR style of voting.  Still I suppose it's better to be obstinately thick about the bigger picture 

The Home Rule party had the same sway in turn-of-the-19th/20th-century politics. What did it avail them?

[ardmhachaabu]

The funny thing about the unionist position in all of this is that they would be in a very strong position in terms of the politics of the entire island, so much so that they could become part of ANY coalition government because of the PR style of voting.  Still I suppose it's better to be obstinately thick about the bigger picture 

The Home Rule party had the same sway in turn-of-the-19th/20th-century politics. What did it avail them?

Different times deiseach, these days with unionist business interests it would be a very different picture.  Economically, they will always hold major sway so it stands to sense that those business interests would turn into votes.  I am not predicting it will take place in the next 10 years, I would say it will happen in the next 50 years though.  In the grand scheme of things the northern ireland statelet is on its last legs.  As Donagh said at the start of the thread, the day will come when unionism is in the minority in the north.  If a border poll is called north and south simultaneously and it's passed on both sides, it is only then that unionism will deal pragmatically with it all.  Up till then, they will continue to do like Roger and stick their heads in the sand.  After all, it means the precious link with Britain will be gone to all intents and purposes though I also reckon that Ireland will rejoin the Commonwealth as part of the overall bigger picture.  I suppose the 'purist republicans' will balk at that too but like, they aren't living in reality either.

[armaghniac]

There are a few factors likely to influence NI development in the next while
- British government spending economies as they will have run up a huge debt. The 6 counties needs a private sector that goes beyond Sainsburys in Newry or it will be hard times for a long time.
- probable Conservative government. This will not have a majority in Scotland and there will be tension between London and the regional administrations. The UUP will be linked to the Conservatives and the DUP will not love London for that reason.
- new Dublin government and Fianna Fail reorganising and not being too focussed on the North

[deiseach]

If a border poll is called north and south simultaneously and it's passed on both sides, it is only then that unionism will deal pragmatically with it all.  Up till then, they will continue to do like Roger and stick their heads in the sand. 

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

[lynchbhoy]

If a border poll is called north and south simultaneously and it's passed on both sides, it is only then that unionism will deal pragmatically with it all.  Up till then, they will continue to do like Roger and stick their heads in the sand. 

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

thing is though they no longer have the know how or ammo, as their uvf/lvf/uda/uff etc leaders were all from the british army ranks.
The british army will no longer front these squads or operations so I personally do not fear any reprisals or any real violent resistence from unionist/loyalist side.

to answer your question from before, I personally couldnt go againt what I think is the rightful reunion of Ireland, but there may be others that would take a huge financial bung in order to maintain the british rule in the northern part of Ireland.
I dont think any amount of money would convince people to overthrow the current 'democracy' in the south given th financial position that britain is in (and is getting worse and will get way worse).
Thats stretching hypothetical situations though !
Realisitcally this is a one way street. Britain when it gets the chance will offload the northern counties, bring back these civil service etc jobs to england or wales creating employment and boosting local economy, then save hundreds of billions in not having to police/maintain military presence in the north. I dont think its too difficult to see why they want to hand back the six counties. Like in all business Ireland will insist on a financial injection to take back the six counties (even though we want them back in principle at least).
Unless of course our gov do another shell oil job and feck up a potentially good financial earner for the country !

[ardmhachaabu]

If a border poll is called north and south simultaneously and it's passed on both sides, it is only then that unionism will deal pragmatically with it all.  Up till then, they will continue to do like Roger and stick their heads in the sand. 

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

They couldn't afford not to, under the scenario you presented, as the world is a vastly changed place - no longer is violence for political purposes acceptable under any circumstances.  Britain would have to react and the PSNI would have to react accordingly.  To do otherwise would risk bringing international wrath on Britain. 

Having said that, the process I talk of will be a long one and very carefully managed to avoid your scenario.  This was mapped out as far back as the 70s by Desmond Boal who held talks with prominent republicans.  Deep down unionism knows what will happen, I think some of their fears spring from the way that the minority population was treated when they ruled the roost and they are scared the same might happen to them.  Again, the world is a changed place and there is legislation in place to stop anything like that from happening.

There is a train of thought that I feel explains the fact Paisley eventually went into a deal with the Provos; that he was told what else was on the cards if he didn't compromise and so he decided that a political partnership with Sinn Fein/IRA was the best way to save northern ireland for the time being.

[Roger]

Why would Europe want that?

I used the same argument for the ROI to show that republicans or nationalists wouldn't think it relevant and would instantly say no to it.  That is not Ostrich Politics it is the obvious natural response yet you think Unionists shouldn't have an opinion just because their's disagrees with others.

The funny thing about the unionist position in all of this is that they would be in a very strong position in terms of the politics of the entire island, so much so that they could become part of ANY coalition government because of the PR style of voting.  Still I suppose it's better to be obstinately thick about the bigger picture 

Unionists are loyal to the UK not the Republic of Ireland or any new Ireland state. Your arrogance in this is stunning.  Why on earth would unionists want a strong position in terms of Politics in a state they have no interest in and fundamentally opposed to? 

[Roger]

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

I don't see that happening at all.  It is interesting the way this thread developed to consider and predict what might happen at a future date. 

One of the things I find strange is that nationalists / republicans are now saying the time needs to be right and negotiations for a new state need to take place with money donated from other states to set it up.  This for me is a big change in approach.

[lynchbhoy]

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

I don't see that happening at all.  It is interesting the way this thread developed to consider and predict what might happen at a future date. 

One of the things I find strange is that nationalists / republicans are now saying the time needs to be right and negotiations for a new state need to take place with money donated from other states to set it up.  This for me is a big change in approach.

I think you will find that there has been a ceasefire and GFA etc in the past few years so no longer as urgent a requirement.
secondly how else would you fund such a venture?
especially if the funding was available - surely that commerical and business sense ?
Cant speak for anyone else, but these are my requirements for a reunification , dont take what I am saying as the mantra for all nationalists !
I am a capitalist though and pragmatist. Both are lacking in the senses of almost all north of Ireland denizens when it comes to the political question and eventual unavoidable reunification !

[Lar Naparka]

There's the rub. Rather than stick their heads in the sand, I'm convinced that large swathes of Unionism will take up arms to secure repartition or some other ethinically-cleansed inspired solution, with the tacit connivance of slightly constitutional Unionism. You only have to look at the pronouncements of every Unionist politician there has ever been (with the exception of wishy-washy Alliance types) to know that they reserve the right to use violence to prevent being 'railroaded' into a united Ireland. Then we'll see just how willing perfidious Albion is to put down its own.

I don't see that happening at all.  It is interesting the way this thread developed to consider and predict what might happen at a future date. 

One of the things I find strange is that nationalists / republicans are now saying the time needs to be right and negotiations for a new state need to take place with money donated from other states to set it up.  This for me is a big change in approach.

Roger, one consistent theme running through your posts on this thread has been the inability to accept that republicans from the south are not hell bent on subjugating your people by fair means or foul.
It is as if your expect to see a flock of republican goats demolishing your unionist cabbage patch when you awake some morning and look out the window.
Yet all credible evidence points to the contrary.
In the complex series of negotiations that culminated in the GFA, all parties committed themselves to: "exclusively peaceful and democratic means" in their pursuit of their particular aspirations and objectives.
The republic changed its constitution by repealing articles 2 and 3 of its constitution, thereby relinquishing its claim to NI.
I would ask you in all seriousness; wtf else can we do to set your mind at rest?
The pressure of international opinion plus the advent of television has focussed the minds of all parties concerned on the fact that any hope of a lasting, agreed solution can only be achieved through dialogue and compromise.
All groups concerned have signed up to the Belfast Agreement. That includes the major unionist parties. Yes; the wording of this agreement was deliberately vague in places when the documents were signed.
This was done to allow the unionist parties, the DUP in particular, to sign while certain matters, especially decommissioning, had not been resolved to its satisfaction.
However, all has now been settled and all sides concerned appear to have their snouts firmly in the trough at Stormont.
There is now a North-South Ministerial Council and North-South Implementation Bodies to deal with matters of mutual interest that may arise.
The republic has abandoned articles two and three of its constitution.
I hope you will agree with me on one point at least:
There have been quite a number of reasoned, incisive points from nationalist posters on this thread and the same can be said of a number of unionists also.
Nobody appears to be advocating the idea of a complete take over of the north by the south ala the story of the whale and poor Jonah.
I think all reasonable people accept that an agreed arrangement will need to be considered sometime in the future when a unionist minority of voters becomes a reality. I don't think that anyone who posted here is gloating at the prospect of Unionism being humbled. Lynchbhoy's latest post should give you much food for thought.There are others, too numerous to mention that are couched in the language of compromise and reason.
If I may quote my eloquent friend from Roscommon, most people down here don't give two flying f**ks about the future fate of unionism or anything else up north.
I'd like to think that people down here are essentially honourable and will agree to honour any commitments that were given on our behalf—when and if the time to do so arrives.
But shaping a future for ourselves and for our children is taking all of our time and energy without returning to the past in order to blight our future.

[Roger]

Lar Naparka, I am well aware of the Belfast Agreement, ceasefires etc that you condescendingly repeat for me. It is not something I don't believe you about and I fully accept your view. However, I still find it strange that even when there might be a majority of people in NI who wish to end the Union (as per terms of the agreement) that republicans and nationalists on here now seem to want to have a bigger majority and the time needs to be right economically for them and they need to secure funding from external people.  This is not a ceasefire requirement and whilst the GFA says it should lead to negotiations and subsequent consent from the Republic, the way nationalists and republicans have gone on about the GFA this is definitely not the message being played out.  The Chief of the Republic has even stated 50% plus one vote is the trigger for an all-Ireland state yet people on here are now saying 'lets not be too hasty, we need to make sure we aren't out of pocket'.  Fair enough, no nationalist party in any party of Ireland has a plan to implement their Political goal and the last one that did, SF who lead NI nationalism, has certainly changed their plan to an astonishing degree if it has moved from shoot and bomb a million Brits out NI to democratically trying to achieve their goals but now to 'if the money and timing is right'. I personally don't believe that SF have this as a goal but in the event they would drag their heals and get the begging bowl well filled up.  They certainly couldn't be seen to be delaying the process until the UK, ROI, and USA economies were buoyant as some advocate.  In the meantime few nationalists and republicans on here seem to be able to even utter the correct name of either state and definitely not Northern Ireland whilst the Republic's Tri-colour, the Republic's national anthem and the policies of that state are considered to be the National government for all Ireland now and anyone who is a Unionist is an osterich.  Why?  Because "it's inevitable"!

I have enjoyed the discussion on here, found it very interesting and enlightening to hear others' perspective on the subject matter, and have accepted everyone's views without resorting to personalising the discussion.  However,  I still find the viewpoints strange and not consistent with the public rhetoric of nationalism/republicanism. I would suggest that Unionists on the whole regard nationalism and republicanism with a deep sense of suspicion and whether that is right or wrong it would still need to be acknowledged and allayed before conciliatory relationships could take place either before or after the predicted Utopian all-Ireland state is formed.

[lynchbhoy]

I would ask you in all seriousness; wtf else can we do to set your mind at rest?

I think 'Photographs' or 'pictures' were the 'proof of choice'  from what the unionists said/wanted when that last impasse over decommissioning a few christmases ago ! ! ! 

[lynchbhoy]

1.and the time needs to be right economically for them and they need to secure funding from external people. 

2.  The Chief of the Republic has even stated 50% plus one vote is the trigger for an all-Ireland state yet people on here are now saying 'lets not be too hasty, we need to make sure we aren't out of pocket'.

3. Fair enough, no nationalist party in any party of Ireland has a plan to implement their Political goal and the last one that did, SF who lead NI nationalism, has certainly changed their plan to an astonishing degree if it has moved from shoot and bomb a million Brits out NI to democratically trying to achieve their goals but now to 'if the money and timing is right'.

4. I still find the viewpoints strange and not consistent with the public rhetoric of nationalism/republicanism. I would suggest that Unionists on the whole regard nationalism and republicanism with a deep sense of suspicion and whether that is right or wrong it would still need to be acknowledged and allayed before conciliatory relationships could take place either before or after the predicted Utopian all-Ireland state is formed.

1.makes business sense does it not, british gov want to get rid of and therefore will pay us to do so...makes perfect sense to me and I'd say and business minded person ! Please point out why not if you have alternative ideas !
2. dont think he has currently covered himself in glory from a fiscal planning perspective. People saw what happened to Germany when it re-absorbed the East too quickly with no planning, infrastucture and jobs - merely to be on the crest of a crest of a feel-good political wave. Thats nice, but long term it doesnt pay the bills or balance GDP.

3.Why create a blueprint now when we know the whole political amd more so the financial scenario will have changed when this happens, 6 months is a LONG time in politics for example.
Also why is it that such people are branding sf as the people that were involved in shooting etc ? I always thought that was the IRA ! ! !
SF/nationalists perspective has changed, there are no longer wholesale attacks on nationalists, second class citizenship or persecution as a whole these days (merely the rubbish unprofessional psni as a legacy). Thats a good reason theres no rush.
Also by indulging  unionist/loyalist instransigence, sf as happy to prolong any discussions as the longer it goes on, the less bargaining power or bargaining chips  or veto loyalists/unionists have towards the inevitable.

4. thats the problem, unionists/loyalists have never tried to reconcile their position along with co-inhabitors of the island, which is why they find it hard to fathom that nationalists north and south (even non nationalists) dont have pointy teeth and horns on their head.
They also wont believe that unionists will be welcomed north and south and that they will find nationalists wont gloat (cant vouch for monaghan people !) and will be gracious in what would be seen by some as a victory - others see it merely a progression.