Author Topic: China Coronavirus  (Read 932278 times)

sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16605 on: October 09, 2021, 11:05:12 AM »
ROI weekly update. Good drop on cases this week, small rise on those in hospital.

8968 cases (353 fewer than last week)
319 in hospital (23 more than a week ago)
60 in ICU ( 5 fewer than last Sunday)
6 days later we're back up to over 2000 cases in a day (2,002 yesterday).

354 in hospital and 73 in ICU.

There may be trouble ahead.

armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16606 on: October 09, 2021, 11:58:24 AM »
I'd say the opening of universities must have had some effect on the numbers.
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sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16607 on: October 09, 2021, 01:25:30 PM »
I'd say the opening of universities must have had some effect on the numbers.
Lots of spread in schools as well.

People going back to workplaces.

October 22nd is not far away at all.

Seasonal factors possibly beginning to make themselves felt.

Whichever way you dice it, the inescapable conclusion is that the Republic is going to have problems in the weeks ahead.


Cunny Funt

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16608 on: October 10, 2021, 07:16:05 PM »
ROI weekly update. A rise on cases and hospitals numbers this week.

9533 (565 more than last week)
382 in hospital (63 more than a week ago)
74 in ICU (14 more than a week ago)

sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16609 on: October 10, 2021, 07:44:53 PM »
ROI weekly update. A rise on cases and hospitals numbers this week.

9533 (565 more than last week)
382 in hospital (63 more than a week ago)
74 in ICU (14 more than a week ago)
The 7 day average for test positivity ratio has gone from 5.3% on September 23rd to 6.8% on October 8th.

I think if you look at the trends not just over the last couple of weeks, but since July, things are worrying.

On July 3rd, only 42 people were in hospital with Covid.

Despite many people (including myself) expecting a massive explosion in cases when Delta arrived, it never really materialised. Cases rose but pretty much hit a ceiling of 2k per day.

And yet, hospital and ICU numbers have increased a lot since July. Hospitalisations went from 42 on July 3rd to 384 on September 6th. That dipped for a week or two but then started to rise again and we are now more or less back to that September 6th figure.

13 ICU patients on June 26th has now increased to 74.

Simply put, the flow of patients into hospitals is greater than the flow out of them.

Again, I stress that all this is without a massive explosion in cases - in fact cases have been more or less on a slight downward slope over the last two months - which is the really worrying part.

With full opening less than two weeks away and winter beginning to close in, if we do see an explosion in cases, say to 4k, which I think is very possible - the hospitals are going to feel serious strain.

And we have five months of winter ahead of us.

At this stage I do expect a similar surge in cases to what we had last year, especially in the run up to Christmas. That will hopefully not mean an explosion in deaths, but it will surely mean a rise. And some restrictions, probably post-Christmas, are likely, I think.

The vaccines can't be approved and rolled out to all age groups fast enough. Same with boosters.





« Last Edit: October 10, 2021, 07:50:54 PM by sid waddell »

seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16610 on: October 10, 2021, 08:49:54 PM »
ROI weekly update. A rise on cases and hospitals numbers this week.

9533 (565 more than last week)
382 in hospital (63 more than a week ago)
74 in ICU (14 more than a week ago)
The 7 day average for test positivity ratio has gone from 5.3% on September 23rd to 6.8% on October 8th.

I think if you look at the trends not just over the last couple of weeks, but since July, things are worrying.

On July 3rd, only 42 people were in hospital with Covid.

Despite many people (including myself) expecting a massive explosion in cases when Delta arrived, it never really materialised. Cases rose but pretty much hit a ceiling of 2k per day.

And yet, hospital and ICU numbers have increased a lot since July. Hospitalisations went from 42 on July 3rd to 384 on September 6th. That dipped for a week or two but then started to rise again and we are now more or less back to that September 6th figure.

13 ICU patients on June 26th has now increased to 74.

Simply put, the flow of patients into hospitals is greater than the flow out of them.

Again, I stress that all this is without a massive explosion in cases - in fact cases have been more or less on a slight downward slope over the last two months - which is the really worrying part.

With full opening less than two weeks away and winter beginning to close in, if we do see an explosion in cases, say to 4k, which I think is very possible - the hospitals are going to feel serious strain.

And we have five months of winter ahead of us.

At this stage I do expect a similar surge in cases to what we had last year, especially in the run up to Christmas. That will hopefully not mean an explosion in deaths, but it will surely mean a rise. And some restrictions, probably post-Christmas, are likely, I think.

The vaccines can't be approved and rolled out to all age groups fast enough. Same with boosters.
Plus vaccine efficiency will.reduce over time.
And there will be new variants.

The key metric relates to the resilience of the Health service.
This isn't over yet.
Lookit

sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16611 on: October 10, 2021, 10:11:25 PM »

Plus vaccine efficiency will.reduce over time.
And there will be new variants.

The key metric relates to the resilience of the Health service.
This isn't over yet.
Delta is a very "fit" variant and seems to be demolishing all comers in terms of variants, but we definitely cannot rule out it developing more "fitness" this winter. If it does, we're in serious bother.

Whether boosters are rolled out quick enough could be the deciding factor in whether we have more restrictions this winter.

I have big doubts about a lot of businesses remaining viable in a no restrictions scenario in which there is still wide spread of the virus.

There is a cohort, mostly younger, who probably won't feel much fear, but a lot of people will remain very cautious and will lack confidence, and that's a recipe for economic trouble.

seafoid

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16612 on: October 10, 2021, 10:16:47 PM »
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/covid-is-not-over-this-is-what-we-have-to-do-next-1.4694946?mode=amp

In order to maintain control, we need to know more about breakthrough infections. Why do some people become infected even if they are vaccinated? Is it because of the virus or their immune systems?
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Rudi

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16613 on: October 13, 2021, 11:22:34 AM »
Good article in the Irish Times in relation to Covid & border areas. Northern Irish Catholics come in for a hard time. Apparently its cultural for NI catholics to go against the grain. True in my experience, feral hoors  ;D

Mario

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16614 on: October 13, 2021, 11:42:24 AM »
Good article in the Irish Times in relation to Covid & border areas. Northern Irish Catholics come in for a hard time. Apparently its cultural for NI catholics to go against the grain. True in my experience, feral hoors  ;D
So Poots was right all along when he said only nationalists are getting covid  ;D

sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16615 on: October 14, 2021, 08:54:41 AM »
The mood music now is that October 22nd won't happen.

And looking at the trends, I don't see it how it can happen, it would be grossly irresponsible if it does.

Mass delusion is beginning to set in again among the "it'll be fine" merchants.
 
It's obvious there's a serious fire burning beneath the floorboards.

Rossfan

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16616 on: October 14, 2021, 09:41:19 AM »
300,000 people here in the 26 didn't get vaccinated.
Most of the cases are from them.
Remember we're a noble race from a land where Kings once trod.

sid waddell

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16617 on: October 14, 2021, 10:05:02 AM »
300,000 people here in the 26 didn't get vaccinated.
Most of the cases are from them.
Vaccinations provoke an immune response in people. There are a lot of people whose immune systems are weaker, most notably the old and those with underlying conditions.

The 300k unvaccinated are a problem for all of us.

Not just because they fill up hospitals, but because they can and do spread it to vaccinated people, some of whom will die as a result.

Because great as they are, the vaccines are not foolproof.

The longer this goes on, the more it looks as if these vaccinations are minimum triple dose.

And everybody has to get them.

Otherwise, the notion of Covid endemicity may prove to be one of humanity's most tragic mistakes.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16618 on: October 14, 2021, 10:24:19 AM »
Good article in the Irish Times in relation to Covid & border areas. Northern Irish Catholics come in for a hard time. Apparently its cultural for NI catholics to go against the grain. True in my experience, feral hoors  ;D

Lol.
Honestly but there might be something in it, we dont like following rules

armaghniac

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Re: China Coronavirus
« Reply #16619 on: October 14, 2021, 11:18:01 AM »
The 300k unvaccinated are a problem for all of us.

Not just because they fill up hospitals, but because they can and do spread it to vaccinated people, some of whom will die as a result.


You can pretty much guarantee that if someone gets COvid that an unvaccinated person was in the chain of infection that brought Covid to them. 

Quote from: sid waddell
The longer this goes on, the more it looks as if these vaccinations are minimum triple dose.

There is nothing particularly sacrosanct about 2 doses, if it takes 3 or 4 then give them to people. A fairly small difference in the proportion getting Covid could make the difference between R > 1 and R < 1. In Israel, people were 11 times more likely to be infected with Covid before their booster dose.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2021, 12:42:23 PM by armaghniac »
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