The ulster rugby trial

[magpie seanie]

Probably an All Ireland issue.

https://theulsterfry.com/featured/ni-unemployment-solved-as-everyone-now-qualified-barrister/

Can you explain what you mean by this? Is it in some way directed at me?

Touchy or what?

Don't flatter yourself that it was aimed at you.

Given how so many on this Board with two notable exceptions have become legal experts over the last two months, the article is fairly apt here as for all those keyboard warriors on social media.

Just a coincidence so? I'll take your word for it.

As for the flippant nonsense of the article you linked and the oft repeated "fireside lawyers" phrase - quite the contrary in fact. Most people accept and admit they have no legal training and are not experts. However, I'm also not an expert on birds or wildlife but if something walks likes a duck and quacks like a duck I'll often give my opinion that I'm strongly of the view that it's a duck.

[David McKeown]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

[Applesisapples]

I have to say I am still conflicted by both sides of this episode. That said proving something beyond all reasonable doubt is difficult. You can not find someone guilty on a balance of probabilities. In terms of behaviour I am appalled at they way these guys got on, but they weren't on trial for appalling behaviour, they were on trial for rape and sexual assault. If the jury did not accept that this girl had with held contempt, 3 1/2 hours is plenty of time to reach a conclusion. It has been said already that there are no winners here. The rallies may be well meaning but they are unfair and in my opinion do a disservice to those contemplating reporting a rape.

[magpie seanie]

I don't but it seems quite low. I think most reasonable people accept there's an underreporting of sexual crimes and the last 10 weeks will certainly not assist with that......including the reactions of those who wanted the girl named and shamed or charged.

I also cannot get away from the thought in my head that this should this girl be 100% telling the truth, effectively she couldn't reasonably have done any more to get a conviction. It really bothers me to be honest. I've many other thoughts on this case and the wider issues it highlights which I'll not share here because they're only my opinions and I'd be here until Christmas defending them as there's a level of my personal judgement based on what I've heard, seen and experienced.

[magpie seanie]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I thought the 60% was of cases brought to trial?

[passedit]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I posted the article with the 7.5% claim and was surprised it was that high tbh, then I reread it and saw it referred to reported rapes.Stats prove anything and It's logical that cases that actually make to court will have a much higher conviction rate as the 'weeding out' process is fairly savage*. When you add the number of women who either blame themselves or realise there is no prospect of a conviction then it's easy to get to the figure I had in my head (half remembered articles over many years) of around 2%. 

*  Not being in the criminal justice system my personal knowledge of this relates to one case where a 16 year old girl i knew (Childminders daughter) was raped by the security guard as she got changed after a shift at a local supermarket. There was a violent struggle in which she suffered hospitalising injuries and took quite a bit of his flesh with her fingernails. The cubicle door where he raoed her was torn off as well. The man was arrested and sacked but the CPS decided not to prosecute because she was active sexually. He got his job back and she had to leave. But sure she was probably asking for it putting it about and all.

With this particular case what I can't get my head around is that the jury believe that this girl serviced three men and none of them penetrated her with his penis? Really?

[AZOffaly]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I posted the article with the 7.5% claim and was surprised it was that high tbh, then I reread it and saw it referred to reported rapes.Stats prove anything and It's logical that cases that actually make to court will have a much higher conviction rate as the 'weeding out' process is fairly savage*. When you add the number of women who either blame themselves or realise there is no prospect of a conviction then it's easy to get to the figure I had in my head (half remembered articles over many years) of around 2%. 

*  Not being in the criminal justice system my personal knowledge of this relates to one case where a 16 year old girl i knew (Childminders daughter) was raped by the security guard as she got changed after a shift at a local supermarket. There was a violent struggle in which she suffered hospitalising injuries and took quite a bit of his flesh with her fingernails. The cubicle door where he raoed her was torn off as well. The man was arrested and sacked but the CPS decided not to prosecute because she was active sexually. He got his job back and she had to leave. But sure she was probably asking for it putting it about and all.

With this particular case what I can't get my head around is that the jury believe that this girl serviced three men and none of them penetrated her with his penis? Really?

Why do you say that? All the jury said was not guilty on the charges. They might well think Paddy Jackson is lying, but that the girl consented.

[magpie seanie]

It's not possible to second guess what the jury thought because you've to make too many assumptions. I say this with the greatest respect to even our legally qualified folks.

The 4 defence teams did their job which by any measure was easier that the prosecutions. I think the decision comes down to that mainly.

[passedit]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I posted the article with the 7.5% claim and was surprised it was that high tbh, then I reread it and saw it referred to reported rapes.Stats prove anything and It's logical that cases that actually make to court will have a much higher conviction rate as the 'weeding out' process is fairly savage*. When you add the number of women who either blame themselves or realise there is no prospect of a conviction then it's easy to get to the figure I had in my head (half remembered articles over many years) of around 2%. 

*  Not being in the criminal justice system my personal knowledge of this relates to one case where a 16 year old girl i knew (Childminders daughter) was raped by the security guard as she got changed after a shift at a local supermarket. There was a violent struggle in which she suffered hospitalising injuries and took quite a bit of his flesh with her fingernails. The cubicle door where he raoed her was torn off as well. The man was arrested and sacked but the CPS decided not to prosecute because she was active sexually. He got his job back and she had to leave. But sure she was probably asking for it putting it about and all.

With this particular case what I can't get my head around is that the jury believe that this girl serviced three men and none of them penetrated her with his penis? Really?

Why do you say that? All the jury said was not guilty on the charges. They might well think Paddy Jackson is lying, but that the girl consented.

Then why lie about it? Why not just say that she consented? He lied about the crucial part of his defence and he still gets off with hardly a discussion? 

[AZOffaly]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I posted the article with the 7.5% claim and was surprised it was that high tbh, then I reread it and saw it referred to reported rapes.Stats prove anything and It's logical that cases that actually make to court will have a much higher conviction rate as the 'weeding out' process is fairly savage*. When you add the number of women who either blame themselves or realise there is no prospect of a conviction then it's easy to get to the figure I had in my head (half remembered articles over many years) of around 2%. 

*  Not being in the criminal justice system my personal knowledge of this relates to one case where a 16 year old girl i knew (Childminders daughter) was raped by the security guard as she got changed after a shift at a local supermarket. There was a violent struggle in which she suffered hospitalising injuries and took quite a bit of his flesh with her fingernails. The cubicle door where he raoed her was torn off as well. The man was arrested and sacked but the CPS decided not to prosecute because she was active sexually. He got his job back and she had to leave. But sure she was probably asking for it putting it about and all.

With this particular case what I can't get my head around is that the jury believe that this girl serviced three men and none of them penetrated her with his penis? Really?

Why do you say that? All the jury said was not guilty on the charges. They might well think Paddy Jackson is lying, but that the girl consented.

Then why lie about it? Why not just say that she consented? He lied about the crucial part of his defence and he still gets off with hardly a discussion?

Hardly a discussion? Jaysus where have you been. There's 200 pages here, and a lot of it refers to inconsistencies in what the defence said. It's entirely possible that she consented, he lied about just using his fingers, and the charges would still be not guilty, because if there's consent then there's no rape or sexual assault.

I just think you are assuming too much, as Seanie said.

[screenexile]

MS I'm not suggesting you are wrong but I saw the 7.5% claim in a recent article, I also saw a figure of 6% and 60% in other articles. Does anyone actually know what the correct statistic is and how it compares to other types of criminal complaint?

I posted the article with the 7.5% claim and was surprised it was that high tbh, then I reread it and saw it referred to reported rapes.Stats prove anything and It's logical that cases that actually make to court will have a much higher conviction rate as the 'weeding out' process is fairly savage*. When you add the number of women who either blame themselves or realise there is no prospect of a conviction then it's easy to get to the figure I had in my head (half remembered articles over many years) of around 2%. 

*  Not being in the criminal justice system my personal knowledge of this relates to one case where a 16 year old girl i knew (Childminders daughter) was raped by the security guard as she got changed after a shift at a local supermarket. There was a violent struggle in which she suffered hospitalising injuries and took quite a bit of his flesh with her fingernails. The cubicle door where he raoed her was torn off as well. The man was arrested and sacked but the CPS decided not to prosecute because she was active sexually. He got his job back and she had to leave. But sure she was probably asking for it putting it about and all.

With this particular case what I can't get my head around is that the jury believe that this girl serviced three men and none of them penetrated her with his penis? Really?

Why do you say that? All the jury said was not guilty on the charges. They might well think Paddy Jackson is lying, but that the girl consented.

Then why lie about it? Why not just say that she consented? He lied about the crucial part of his defence and he still gets off with hardly a discussion?

I have to admit this comment made my spit my tea out!!

[TabClear]

I don't but it seems quite low. I think most reasonable people accept there's an underreporting of sexual crimes and the last 10 weeks will certainly not assist with that......including the reactions of those who wanted the girl named and shamed or charged.

I also cannot get away from the thought in my head that this should this girl be 100% telling the truth, effectively she couldn't reasonably have done any more to get a conviction. It really bothers me to be honest. I've many other thoughts on this case and the wider issues it highlights which I'll not share here because they're only my opinions and I'd be here until Christmas defending them as there's a level of my personal judgement based on what I've heard, seen and experienced.

Thats the crux of the issue. The nature of rape cases where the victim knows/has engaged with the attacker, say met in a club and went back to a house (as distinct from the unknown attacker in a dark alley scenario that is more black and white) is that it will more often than not boil down to a he said/she said scenario in a private place with no witnesses.  If there are no physical injuries it is practically impossible to secure a conviction with the reasonable doubt bar. The point that was raised in this trial about rape victims not necessarily struggling out of fear of further violence was something I did not appreciate and is quite frightening to be honest.  This further reduces the chance of physical evidence helping to secure a conviction.

This puts the police and victim in an impossible situation. A question for BCB or David. This might be an unfair question but  lets say a girl meets a guy in a bar and they get on well, all over each other in club on CCtV and go back to her house where they end up in bed together. She says no sex but he rapes her. She reports this to the police immediately but on examination has no physical signs of force. Police arrest the rapist and he says no, she absolutely consented but she got mad when i told her i didnt want to see her again and as far as I was concerned it was a one night stand.

In this scenario would the PPS be likely to take this to court? Without any legal expertise I would be inclined to say that I cant see how that case would get a conviction despite a crime being committed which is a tough concept to accept.

[David McKeown]

Again I've seen figures bandied about left right and centre. Certainly crime is underreported in this jurisdiction generally and specifically sexual crime. I don't think the coverage of this case is going to help in this regard. This leads me on to my issues with this #ibelieveher movement.

Right I have the following issues with the #ibelieveher movement and today's protest for the following reasons.

A doubt many in the movement heard all the evidence in the case. The general public certainly didn't. Without hearing all the evidence it's impossible to have formed any sort of view of this women's credibility. The jury heard all the evidence and in very short order acquitted all 4 defendants. Significantly they acquitted McIlroy too who unlike Jackson and Olding did not have the defence of reasonable belief in consent. The jury could only have done that if they didn't believe the girl. Whilst I acknowledge that jurors can and do make mistakes. Both of those things are significant for me. If they didn't believe her then I think people have every right not to believe her. People shouldn't be castigated or abused for this.

2. The movement is doing more harm than good by spreading misinformation about the criminal justice system. The fact is rape trials are treated differently to any other type of trials. Rape victims are automatically eligible for special measures. Rules about admission of hearsay are less strict and non defendant bad character more strict etc. The criminal justice system does plenty to assist rape victims but this movement is portraying that it doesn't. That will put victims off coming forward.

3. There's a lot of background info that wasn't shared about the girl and for good reason.

4. Any attempt to explain this or reason with the movement has been labelled rape apologists or rapists. That doesn't help anyone

5. They've intensified the scrutiny on an alleged rape victim either deliberately or accidentally. That's counter productive in the extreme and again is likely to discourage rape victims from coming forward.

[David McKeown]

In response to the type of case that's he said she said. They can be brought to court and they can result in convictions. Hundreds of charges a year are on the basis of he said she said. If anything rules about evidence regarding first complaint evidence actually make it easier in rape trials than other types of trials. There is a growing perception that it's impossible to secure a conviction in the circumstances. It's not. Often it will come down to the believability of the witnesses when considered against the other evidence in the case.

Before any charges are settled the PPS will consider all the evidence and perform a two stage test. Firstly is there sufficient evidence to believe there is a reasonable prospect of conviction. Not a high likelihood of conviction or a certainty of conviction just a reasonable prospect of conviction. Then the second step is it in the public interest.

I can appreciate that the criminal justice process can be difficult for victims but that has to be balanced against the rights of the accused to a fair hearing.

I have yet to hear any real alternatives from those who bemoan the current system.

[Dinny Breen]

I think point 3 is going to get out eventually. That girl regrettably is going to be fed to the lions on social media and indeed MSM. The #ibelieveher movement is making a lot of people angry and I can't see a happy ending. They will soon move on to #repealthe8th as their next crusade.