Cut in the number of TDs

[Maguire01]

The number of TDs in the Dáil is expected to be reduced by eight to 158 on the recommendation of the Constituency Commission, which is due to report next month.

The commission will recommend wholesale changes to boundaries, with Dublin, Munster and Connacht-Ulster each losing three seats and Leinster outside Dublin gaining one.

The changes will cause upheaval in all parties, particularly when taken in tandem with the fresh legal requirement that each party must nominate women as 30 per cent of its candidates in the next election.

The commission was charged with redrawing constituency boundaries. It took into account the 2011 census figures published in March and the Coalition pledge to reduce the number of TDs.

Its terms of reference provide for a minimum of 153 TDs in the next Dáil and a maximum of 160. There are 166 TDs in this Dáil.

It is understood that the commission has almost completed its work and its report will be published in the middle of next month.

The reduction of three seats in Munster will come about through consolidation of the two three-seat constituencies in Kerry into one five-seater. The same process will take place in Tipperary, where one five-seat constituency will replace two three-seaters.

Cork will also lose a seat, with the likelihood of Cork South Central being reduced from a five- to a four-seater with readjustment of a number of boundaries in the surrounding constituencies.

The three-seat reduction in Connacht-Ulster will come about through merging two Donegal three-seaters into one five-seater and the five-seat Cavan Monaghan being reduced to a four-seater.

The third seat in the region to go will be in either Galway or Mayo, with the eastern portion of one of those counties being merged with Roscommon. In tandem with that, the old Sligo-Leitrim constituency will be restored, ending the partition of Leitrim for electoral purposes.

The reduction of three seats in Dublin will be achieved through extensive changes to boundaries. Two seats are likely to go on the north side of the city, with an extensive redrawing of constituencies like Dublin North Central, Dublin North West, Dublin Central and Dublin West.

One seat is expected to go on the south side, with the most likely outcome being the reduction of Dublin South Central from a five- to a four-seater. But there is also a possibility that Dún Laoghaire could be reduced from a four- to a three-seater.

Laois-Offaly is certain to gain a seat in the revision, with the current five-seat constituency being broken up to form two three-seaters.

The census showed that the existing Laois-Offaly constituency has the highest ratio of population to Dáil deputy at 30,565, followed by the three-seat Kildare South and the four-seat Kildare North, which are marginally over the 30,000 limit.

Both of those constituencies are likely to lose territory as a result.

Speaking in Midleton, Co Cork today, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the commission was "completely and utterly" independent and declined to comment on the contents of the report.

"I have no idea what is in the report and I am going to make no comment on it good, bad or indifferent until I see it. This is one commission of a number that is quite utterly independent in terms of its views."

Minister for Agriculture Simon Convey said he has been advocating a reduction in TD numbers for a long time. "I have no problem with reducing the number of TDs," he said. "I think it makes sense. And if that means there are changes in my own constituency, then so be it. You cannot be precious about these things."

According to article 16 of the Constitution, the ratio of population to TD has to be between 20,000 and 30,000. While in opposition, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny pledged to cut the size of the Dáil by 20 seats to 146, but that would require a constitutional referendum as it would have left a ratio of more than 31,000.

With 158 TDs, the ratio would be 29,039, the closest to the limit since the adoption of the 1937 Constitution.

For much of the State's history that ratio was close to the 20,000 figure in order to maximise the number of TDs in the Dáil. However, the rapid rise in population combined with reduction in the number of TDs means that the new ratio will involve the lowest number of TDs to population.

The commission accepted submissions from interested parties, including TDs, in addition to census data, in arriving at its decisions.

The five-person commission is chaired by High Court judge Mr Justice John Cooke. The other four members are: clerk of the Dáil Kieran Coughlan; clerk of the Seanad Deirdre Lane; Ombudsman Emily O'Reilly; and secretary general of the Department of the Environment Geraldine Tallon.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0525/breaking11.html

[mylestheslasher]

Cavan had  the 2nd highest level of population growth after the last census, hard to understand how they lose a TD. Mind you if i were allowed pick the TD to lose it would be easy to decide, I'm think of you Brendan "big cheese" Smith.

[Maguire01]

Haven't read any detailed analysis of how this would impact on parties, but a few things appear likely:

FG to lose a seat in Cavan/Monaghan - also dashing SF's hopes of a second seat here.
Any change to Dublin South Central would likely see an end to O'Snodaigh.
Pringle looks most vulnerable in a new 5-seater Donegal.
Suggested changes to north side of Dublin too vague at the minute to properly understand impact, especially given that it looks like significant redrawing of boundaries and not just cutting seats in existing boundaries.

[Maguire01]

Cavan had  the 2nd highest level of population growth after the last census, hard to understand how they lose a TD. Mind you if i were allowed pick the TD to lose it would be easy to decide, I'm think of you Brendan "big cheese" Smith.

I imagine it must have been 'over represented' previously. Also, Monaghan's population growth has been slower and obviously it will be based on the population across both counties. And given that Laois/Offaly is getting another TD, that leaves 9 to be cut from other constituencies.

I think there's still one fairly safe FF seat in this constituency. It will be interesting however, to see how many candidates the different parties run the next time.

[mylestheslasher]

According to the Indo FF and SF will be the big winners out of this.

[Maguire01]

According to the Indo FF and SF will be the big winners out of this.

If you're reading the same article as I've just read, you're being a bit sensational. The headline is FF and SF "to gain"... no mention of big winners.

The article itself is pretty weak. For example, it's basing SF gains on 5 seater constituencies making it easier for smaller parties to gain a seat. So they might make a breakthrough in Tipp, but there's no second seat for them in Kerry and no third seat in Donegal. FF could potentially pick up a second seat in Donegal and get one in both Tipp and Kerry.

The analysis also seems to completely ignore the constituencies that will be reduced in size. O'Snodaigh is in trouble in Dublin South Central, and Mary-Lou could be too, depending on the impact of any changes/reduction of seats around Dublin Central. FF should be safe enough from the impact of the reduced number of TDs though - obviously the reduction of 3 TDs in Dublin won't have any impact on their current numbers there! None of the 3 lost seats in Connacht/Ulster should impact them either.

[LeoMc]

The number of TDs in the Dáil is expected to be reduced by eight to 158 on the recommendation of the Constituency Commission, which is due to report next month.

The commission will recommend wholesale changes to boundaries, with Dublin, Munster and Connacht-Ulster each losing three seats and Leinster outside Dublin gaining one.

The changes will cause upheaval in all parties, particularly when taken in tandem with the fresh legal requirement that each party must nominate women as 30 per cent of its candidates in the next election.

The commission was charged with redrawing constituency boundaries. It took into account the 2011 census figures published in March and the Coalition pledge to reduce the number of TDs.

Its terms of reference provide for a minimum of 153 TDs in the next Dáil and a maximum of 160. There are 166 TDs in this Dáil.

It is understood that the commission has almost completed its work and its report will be published in the middle of next month.

The reduction of three seats in Munster will come about through consolidation of the two three-seat constituencies in Kerry into one five-seater. The same process will take place in Tipperary, where one five-seat constituency will replace two three-seaters.

Cork will also lose a seat, with the likelihood of Cork South Central being reduced from a five- to a four-seater with readjustment of a number of boundaries in the surrounding constituencies.

The three-seat reduction in Connacht-Ulster will come about through merging two Donegal three-seaters into one five-seater and the five-seat Cavan Monaghan being reduced to a four-seater.

The third seat in the region to go will be in either Galway or Mayo, with the eastern portion of one of those counties being merged with Roscommon. In tandem with that, the old Sligo-Leitrim constituency will be restored, ending the partition of Leitrim for electoral purposes.

The reduction of three seats in Dublin will be achieved through extensive changes to boundaries. Two seats are likely to go on the north side of the city, with an extensive redrawing of constituencies like Dublin North Central, Dublin North West, Dublin Central and Dublin West.

One seat is expected to go on the south side, with the most likely outcome being the reduction of Dublin South Central from a five- to a four-seater. But there is also a possibility that Dún Laoghaire could be reduced from a four- to a three-seater.

Laois-Offaly is certain to gain a seat in the revision, with the current five-seat constituency being broken up to form two three-seaters.

The census showed that the existing Laois-Offaly constituency has the highest ratio of population to Dáil deputy at 30,565, followed by the three-seat Kildare South and the four-seat Kildare North, which are marginally over the 30,000 limit.

Both of those constituencies are likely to lose territory as a result.

Speaking in Midleton, Co Cork today, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the commission was "completely and utterly" independent and declined to comment on the contents of the report.

"I have no idea what is in the report and I am going to make no comment on it good, bad or indifferent until I see it. This is one commission of a number that is quite utterly independent in terms of its views."

Minister for Agriculture Simon Convey said he has been advocating a reduction in TD numbers for a long time. "I have no problem with reducing the number of TDs," he said. "I think it makes sense. And if that means there are changes in my own constituency, then so be it. You cannot be precious about these things."

According to article 16 of the Constitution, the ratio of population to TD has to be between 20,000 and 30,000. While in opposition, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny pledged to cut the size of the Dáil by 20 seats to 146, but that would require a constitutional referendum as it would have left a ratio of more than 31,000.

With 158 TDs, the ratio would be 29,039, the closest to the limit since the adoption of the 1937 Constitution.

For much of the State's history that ratio was close to the 20,000 figure in order to maximise the number of TDs in the Dáil. However, the rapid rise in population combined with reduction in the number of TDs means that the new ratio will involve the lowest number of TDs to population.

The commission accepted submissions from interested parties, including TDs, in addition to census data, in arriving at its decisions.

The five-person commission is chaired by High Court judge Mr Justice John Cooke. The other four members are: clerk of the Dáil Kieran Coughlan; clerk of the Seanad Deirdre Lane; Ombudsman Emily O'Reilly; and secretary general of the Department of the Environment Geraldine Tallon.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0525/breaking11.html

Two things jump out of that article for me:

1. A legal requirement for positive discrimination. Surely that cannot be enforceable!

2. They have been fighting about the East Mayo / Roscommon border since about 1885. The constituency commission would not have made that suggestion if they had came on here first.

[Canalman]

According to the Indo FF and SF will be the big winners out of this.

If you're reading the same article as I've just read, you're being a bit sensational. The headline is FF and SF "to gain"... no mention of big winners.

The article itself is pretty weak. For example, it's basing SF gains on 5 seater constituencies making it easier for smaller parties to gain a seat. So they might make a breakthrough in Tipp, but there's no second seat for them in Kerry and no third seat in Donegal. FF could potentially pick up a second seat in Donegal and get one in both Tipp and Kerry.

The analysis also seems to completely ignore the constituencies that will be reduced in size. O'Snodaigh is in trouble in Dublin South Central, and Mary-Lou could be too, depending on the impact of any changes/reduction of seats around Dublin Central. FF should be safe enough from the impact of the reduced number of TDs though - obviously the reduction of 3 TDs in Dublin won't have any impact on their current numbers there! None of the 3 lost seats in Connacht/Ulster should impact them either.

Way off the mark there imho with regards to the 2 SF TDs quoted. If anyone is to be worried at the next GE in Dublin it will be the Labour Party. A  massacre awaits them I think at the next GE.

[Maguire01]

According to the Indo FF and SF will be the big winners out of this.

If you're reading the same article as I've just read, you're being a bit sensational. The headline is FF and SF "to gain"... no mention of big winners.

The article itself is pretty weak. For example, it's basing SF gains on 5 seater constituencies making it easier for smaller parties to gain a seat. So they might make a breakthrough in Tipp, but there's no second seat for them in Kerry and no third seat in Donegal. FF could potentially pick up a second seat in Donegal and get one in both Tipp and Kerry.

The analysis also seems to completely ignore the constituencies that will be reduced in size. O'Snodaigh is in trouble in Dublin South Central, and Mary-Lou could be too, depending on the impact of any changes/reduction of seats around Dublin Central. FF should be safe enough from the impact of the reduced number of TDs though - obviously the reduction of 3 TDs in Dublin won't have any impact on their current numbers there! None of the 3 lost seats in Connacht/Ulster should impact them either.

Way off the mark there imho with regards to the 2 SF TDs quoted. If anyone is to be worried at the next GE in Dublin it will be the Labour Party. A  massacre awaits them I think at the next GE.

Well off the mark? How so? Yes, Labour are likely to get a hammering at the next GE based on current polls (although polls can fluctuate massively mid-term), but that doesn't mean that SF has nothing to worry about with these changes. Look at the facts:

Dublin South Central - O'Snodaigh elected to the last seat without making the quota. This constituency is likely to lose one seat.

Dublin Central - McDonald elected to the last seat without making quota. 2 FF candidates split their vote (combined vote higher than SF) and both missed out. This constituency could also lose a seat.

[boojangles]

Haven't read any detailed analysis of how this would impact on parties, but a few things appear likely:

FG to lose a seat in Cavan/Monaghan - also dashing SF's hopes of a second seat here.
Any change to Dublin South Central would likely see an end to O'Snodaigh.
Pringle looks most vulnerable in a new 5-seater Donegal.
Suggested changes to north side of Dublin too vague at the minute to properly understand impact, especially given that it looks like significant redrawing of boundaries and not just cutting seats in existing boundaries.

I'd agree with you here. Joe O Reilly will not get a 2nd term. Worse than useless. A great plant by the FG party. Joe was never going to rock the boat and is the type of TD Enda and Co. love.
Don't underestimate SF's ability to claim a 2nd seat here. Kathryn Reilly is gaining a name for herself and in 4 or 5 years time she could be seen as a credible candidate. FG are seen to be doing nothing for the people of Cavan eg. closure of O Neill Barracks, transfer of VEC.  I'm assuming that Caoimghin will run again.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Haven't read any detailed analysis of how this would impact on parties, but a few things appear likely:

FG to lose a seat in Cavan/Monaghan - also dashing SF's hopes of a second seat here.
Any change to Dublin South Central would likely see an end to O'Snodaigh.
Pringle looks most vulnerable in a new 5-seater Donegal.
Suggested changes to north side of Dublin too vague at the minute to properly understand impact, especially given that it looks like significant redrawing of boundaries and not just cutting seats in existing boundaries.

I'd agree with you here. Joe O Reilly will not get a 2nd term. Worse than useless. A great plant by the FG party. Joe was never going to rock the boat and is the type of TD Enda and Co. love.
Don't underestimate SF's ability to claim a 2nd seat here. Kathryn Reilly is gaining a name for herself and in 4 or 5 years time she could be seen as a credible candidate. FG are seen to be doing nothing for the people of Cavan eg. closure of O Neill Barracks, transfer of VEC.  I'm assuming that Caoimghin will run again.

Not defending Joe O'Reilly and I understand that perception and parochialism is all important in Ireland. However we don't need all these 18'th and 19'th century ex-English/British barracks for the National Army. I am a Castlebarman and think its a shame the barracks in our town is to close, but the Irish army does not need it.

[boojangles]

Haven't read any detailed analysis of how this would impact on parties, but a few things appear likely:

FG to lose a seat in Cavan/Monaghan - also dashing SF's hopes of a second seat here.
Any change to Dublin South Central would likely see an end to O'Snodaigh.
Pringle looks most vulnerable in a new 5-seater Donegal.
Suggested changes to north side of Dublin too vague at the minute to properly understand impact, especially given that it looks like significant redrawing of boundaries and not just cutting seats in existing boundaries.

I'd agree with you here. Joe O Reilly will not get a 2nd term. Worse than useless. A great plant by the FG party. Joe was never going to rock the boat and is the type of TD Enda and Co. love.
Don't underestimate SF's ability to claim a 2nd seat here. Kathryn Reilly is gaining a name for herself and in 4 or 5 years time she could be seen as a credible candidate. FG are seen to be doing nothing for the people of Cavan eg. closure of O Neill Barracks, transfer of VEC.  I'm assuming that Caoimghin will run again.

Not defending Joe O'Reilly and I understand that perception and parochialism is all important in Ireland. However we don't need all these 18'th and 19'th century ex-English/British barracks for the National Army. I am a Castlebarman and think its a shame the barracks in our town is to close, but the Irish army does not need it.

O Neill Barracks was opened in 1990. The newest barracks in the State and a minute drain on the taxpayer.

This Government have taken more jobs from our area then they have created. If they are really serious about helping the Cavan/Monaghan region they would get the PayPal situation sorted. PayPal have indicated a desire to set up in Cavan but need a site. A potential of 1000 Jobs is at stake. Further stalling and Dundalk will probably get the jobs.

[Canalman]

According to the Indo FF and SF will be the big winners out of this.

If you're reading the same article as I've just read, you're being a bit sensational. The headline is FF and SF "to gain"... no mention of big winners.

The article itself is pretty weak. For example, it's basing SF gains on 5 seater constituencies making it easier for smaller parties to gain a seat. So they might make a breakthrough in Tipp, but there's no second seat for them in Kerry and no third seat in Donegal. FF could potentially pick up a second seat in Donegal and get one in both Tipp and Kerry.

The analysis also seems to completely ignore the constituencies that will be reduced in size. O'Snodaigh is in trouble in Dublin South Central, and Mary-Lou could be too, depending on the impact of any changes/reduction of seats around Dublin Central. FF should be safe enough from the impact of the reduced number of TDs though - obviously the reduction of 3 TDs in Dublin won't have any impact on their current numbers there! None of the 3 lost seats in Connacht/Ulster should impact them either.

Way off the mark there imho with regards to the 2 SF TDs quoted. If anyone is to be worried at the next GE in Dublin it will be the Labour Party. A  massacre awaits them I think at the next GE.

Well off the mark? How so? Yes, Labour are likely to get a hammering at the next GE based on current polls (although polls can fluctuate massively mid-term), but that doesn't mean that SF has nothing to worry about with these changes. Look at the facts:

Dublin South Central - O'Snodaigh elected to the last seat without making the quota. This constituency is likely to lose one seat.

Dublin Central - McDonald elected to the last seat without making quota. 2 FF candidates split their vote (combined vote higher than SF) and both missed out. This constituency could also lose a seat.

#
We'll agree to disagree so.