China Coronavirus

[Smurfy123]

With both north and south now track and tracing the second wave would be unlikely. They seem to be on top of things and we must give credit where it is due. Ireland making Great Britain look like a shitshow.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I have to admit, this is giving me pause for thought on reopening schools:

http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_FINAL%20public_26%20April%202020.pdf

Given its the tail of the Australian summer, that will have connotations for persistence on surfaces (due to heat), so it may not quite hold true here - but its definitely worthy of further investigation.


[Note that it does contradict the Danish experience with the R0 uptick coinciding with reopening schools. Its never a straightforward one size fits all answer.]


edit: Screw that. France has it entirely different:

https://www.lemonde.fr/education/article/2020/05/19/soixante-dix-ecoles-fermees-pour-des-cas-averes-ou-suspectes-de-covid-19_6040118_1473685.html?fbclid=IwAR01C9K9bZEoiiO4-KgXCQRez7ZxK_xOrPgnhtvrjrEXUNXDUgjAUtdcK3o

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-france-school-cases-reopen-lockdown-a9520386.html


edit2: And here is a snippet on the Danes:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/18/analysis-should-children-go-back-to-school-during-a-pandemic

In Denmark, schools are living with the new normal. Pupils from different classes are given a separate entrance, after which they follow a one-way system to and from their classrooms so that they don't brush past others on the stairs and in corridors.

Once inside the classroom, each child has a double desk to themselves, ensuring a two-metre distance from each other.

And just like all of us, they are getting used to washing their hands... a lot.

As for break times, it is up to Denmark's teachers to become police officers when it comes to maintaining the two-metre rule.

I'd think you'd have a hard time getting some of the brats here to adhere to that.

[Rossfan]

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0520/1139477-hibergene-diagnostics-covid-19-test/

[RadioGAAGAA]

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0520/1139477-hibergene-diagnostics-covid-19-test/

Brilliant.

A test with an hour's turnaround and a small machine will go a long way to making saturation testing of traced contacts that much easier.


edit: and this is good news too:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/

People who recover from COVID-19 but test positive for the virus again days or weeks later are not shedding viral particles and are not infectious, according to data released Tuesday by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I'd recommend you read the link, there is more to it and Beth Mole always does a good job simplifying the complex.

[Smurfy123]

You have to give it to the Irish Government they have got things in place with good results now. Things seem to be really working.
I ask they question was it a massive overreaction? Hospitals in Ireland both north and south are basically empty. Empty

[five points]

You have to give it to the Irish Government they have got things in place with good results now. Things seem to be really working.
I ask they question was it a massive overreaction? Hospitals in Ireland both north and south are basically empty. Empty

It seems that once they sorted the hospitals and nursing homes with PPE etc the problem became manageable.

I personally think the lockdown was an overreaction but businesses were already quietening down and closing even before it started.

[mouview]

You have to give it to the Irish Government they have got things in place with good results now. Things seem to be really working.
I ask they question was it a massive overreaction? Hospitals in Ireland both north and south are basically empty. Empty

It seems that once they sorted the hospitals and nursing homes with PPE etc the problem became manageable.

I personally think the lockdown was an overreaction but businesses were already quietening down and closing even before it started.

As WHO's Sligo native Mike Ryan said, better to be first than waiting to be right.

[Smurfy123]

Yes agree on both points. Better safe than sorry and as five points said things were starting to slow down for businesses anyway as the world was coming to a standstill
Now Leo and co have giving out a planned opening phase but with 3 weeks in between each one.
I would like to think they may reassess that with maybe a 2 week window
So basically it would read
Phase 1 May 18
Phase 2 June 1
Phase 3 June 15
Phase 4 June 29
Phase 5 July 13

Thoughts?

[five points]

Yes agree on both points. Better safe than sorry and as five points said things were starting to slow down for businesses anyway as the world was coming to a standstill
Now Leo and co have giving out a planned opening phase but with 3 weeks in between each one.
I would like to think they may reassess that with maybe a 2 week window
So basically it would read
Phase 1 May 18
Phase 2 June 1
Phase 3 June 15
Phase 4 June 29
Phase 5 July 13

Thoughts?

I think that would be wise. They can always warn that its contingent on all going smoothly.

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/superspreader-events-may-responsible-80-percent-coronavirus/

"A small number of so-called "superspreading" events appear to be responsible for the great majority of coronavirus cases, raising the prospect of the virus being controlled if those events can be reliably pinned down.
Many infectious diseases follow an "20/80" rule, whereby the majority of cases are caused by a small number of infectious individuals. These include pathogens such as HIV, measles and Ebola, as well as the coronaviruses Mers and Sars.

Already, many superspreading venues are known. Hospitals, nursing homes, large dormitories, food processing plans and food markets have all been associated with major outbreaks of Covid-19."

[Smurfy123]

Some good information sea. That's why things can move quicker they now know stuff that they didn't 2 months ago. That along with track trace and isolate is key to this being kept under wraps. I think we are going to have to live with it for now until we get a vaccine but things are turning and turning very quick. Hopefully more good numbers today

[RadioGAAGAA]

I think its fair to say most of us are a lot more optimistic on things now than even just a week ago. Between very preliminary results on vaccines showing promise, new faster tests and more information being accrued on it, things are starting to look up.

As long as we don't get white line fever and move stupidly quickly.



[Of course, that doesn't mean the economy will snap back to normal or anything. I still fully expect to be seeking a new job in a few weeks, but it should be fractionally easier to find a job if things are on the bounce rather than still spiralling.]

[Smurfy123]

Sorry to hear that radio
Hopefully Ireland now move as 1 and move through the phasing process that bit quicker if it is safe to do so.
I'll not lie this has been a tough time for myself mentally so seeing light at the end of the tunnel is good

[trueblue1234]

9000 jobs going in Rolls Royce (Mostly) in the UK. I expect to start to see the economic impact to start rearing it's head now unfortunately. Obviously aerospace will prob be one of the worst hit.

[armaghniac]

I think its fair to say most of us are a lot more optimistic on things now than even just a week ago. Between very preliminary results on vaccines showing promise, new faster tests and more information being accrued on it, things are starting to look up.

As long as we don't get white line fever and move stupidly quickly.



[Of course, that doesn't mean the economy will snap back to normal or anything. I still fully expect to be seeking a new job in a few weeks, but it should be fractionally easier to find a job if things are on the bounce rather than still spiralling.]

New faster tests could be a good help. Even if they are not 100% reliable if you test again, perhaps even with a different techology you would get a high rate of sucess.
You could be tested before going on a plane, as would all airline staff daily.
People in working in bars and restaurants could be tested daily, one customer may infect a few others, but one waiter could infect dozens. Likewise staff in homes, hospitals etc.
Even in the GAA, if testing was easy and cheap enough, you could test every player before a game or test them before they go on the bus to the game.
People have suggested that you test everyone in an area, then the same again a week later, and you'd basically be able to wipe  the thing out. A few interations of this over a month and the country would be free. You'd have people acting  the maggot and refusing to get tested but just quarantine them.