Conspiracy Theories

Started by APM, September 15, 2020, 09:54:04 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

J70

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 15, 2020, 03:33:08 PM
I'm not seeing the circular argument problem.

The supposition that a target of malpractice mightn't be too bothered about it isn't sufficient motive for a perpetrator to engage in it. There has to be an actual benefit to them, otherwise they wouldn't bother.

I didn't say it was sufficient motive. I said that it was an "added benefit".

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 15, 2020, 03:33:08 PM
I posted a link earlier (CNA person) that laid out a much more comprehensive argument on the benefits to Russia than I ever could. If you don't find her points convincing, you're free to respond.

It's very long. I'll confine myself to a short response.

QuoteGoal #1: Restore Russia to Great Power Status
Bots spreading National Enquirer-style tittle tattle is the polar opposite of what Great Powers do. Anyway the dream or nightmare of Russia being a Great Power died in 1989 if not earlier.
History didn't end in 1989. And what DO great powers do these days? Assassinating elected presidents and prime ministers and fomenting rebellions is very 20th century. Invading and occupying countries in the 2000s was probably the tail end of that, at least in the US.

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
QuoteGoal #2: Preserve Russia's Sphere of Influence
The US is not within Russia's sphere of influence. It's half a world away from Moscow.
Seriously? NATO and western democracy is right on it's doorstep.

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
QuoteGoal #3: Protect the Putin Regime
I don't see any credible argument here. Can you?
Yes. Unless you think the Russian system of oligarchy has nothing to fear from a democratic uprising.

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
QuoteGoal #4: Enhance Russia's Military Effectiveness
Again troll farms and the like are the polar opposite of military effectiveness.
The Russians are never going to go to war with the US. And vice versa. So it doesn't really matter how effective internet disinformation is in comparison to military effectiveness. All that matters is whether it is effective in itself, and given the relatively low investment and risk, worth the effort.

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
I don't see any clear, tangible benefit to Russia in any of that. If there was something like access to oil, fair enough, but the 4 goals listed are thin gruel.
In terms of the way she laid it out, which ultimately all comes down to Putin staying in power, I find it a good argument.

Eire90

So where are the so called irish republican paramilitarys who claim to be left leaning why are they allowing the right to rise in irelannd whats going on.

five points

Quote from: J70 on September 15, 2020, 04:41:43 PM
History didnt end in 1989. And what DO great powers do these days? Assassinating elected presidents and prime ministers and fomenting rebellions is very 20th century. Invading and occupying countries in the 2000s was probably the tail end of that, at least in the US.

Russia has been a wreck since 1989, certainly not a great power.


Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
Seriously? NATO and western democracy is right on it's doorstep.
America isn't.

QuoteUnless you think the Russian system of oligarchy has nothing to fear from a democratic uprising.

And the link from that to Trump & Brexit?

Quote
The Russians are never going to go to war with the US. And vice versa. So it doesn't really matter how effective internet disinformation is in comparison to military effectiveness. All that matters is whether it is effective in itself, and given the relatively low investment and risk, worth the effort.
But she specifically mentioned military effectiveness.

Quote
In terms of the way she laid it out, which ultimately all comes down to Putin staying in power, I find it a good argument.

There we differ.

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
So where are the so called irish republican paramilitarys who claim to be left leaning why are they allowing the right to rise in irelannd whats going on.

You want them to go out and shoot them?

The problem is their numbers remain miniscule but they seem to have fooled a load of well meaning turnips into going out and marching for covid. Last Saturdays mess will damage that and whenever covid does slow down we will see if the alliance holds.

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 02:21:18 PM
Again all very far-fetched. Those "rumours" are the kind of stuff that you'd see in the Sunday Sport or the National Enquirer. If that's the level Russia are at, then we've little to worry about.
They even tried to rig the last FF leadership election. We know they were involved in Brexit and getting Trump in.

Even if they fail the fact that theyy are undermining democracy is enough in itself. But when they win the fundamentally weaken the west

sid waddell

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 15, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
So where are the so called irish republican paramilitarys who claim to be left leaning why are they allowing the right to rise in irelannd whats going on.

You want them to go out and shoot them?

The problem is their numbers remain miniscule but they seem to have fooled a load of well meaning turnips into going out and marching for covid. Last Saturdays mess will damage that and whenever covid does slow down we will see if the alliance holds.
I don't think it will damage it to be honest - there was already rioting at one of the previous far right rallies at the Customs House on August 22nd and yet the crowds still increased for last Saturday

These "well meaning turnips" are already on the spectrum that inevitably leads to the far right

They're radicalised by a deep cynicism, anger and gullibility, and that will inevitably be turned against ethnic minorities and immigrants

The entirely made up propaganda about the fire in Balbriggan was the clearest example yet of how the far right see turning white working class people against ethnic minorities and immigrants through a blizzard of lies as their go to strategy

Reporting of these far right rallies so far has not framed the message effectively about what they really are - in several cases reporting has actually been quite favourable to them for those who skim read headlines -  this is a pattern that seems to be repeated over and over again across different countries - a false legitimacy is bestowed on them by negligent reporting

J70

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 05:43:20 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 15, 2020, 04:41:43 PM
History didnt end in 1989. And what DO great powers do these days? Assassinating elected presidents and prime ministers and fomenting rebellions is very 20th century. Invading and occupying countries in the 2000s was probably the tail end of that, at least in the US.

Russia has been a wreck since 1989, certainly not a great power.

I never said it was. But the point of the piece was that it aspires to be.

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 05:43:20 PM
Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 03:56:00 PM
Seriously? NATO and western democracy is right on it's doorstep.
America isn't.

You deny that the US has a lot of influence on NATO and Europe? That Russia has been seriously concerned with NATO expansion and enlargement of the EU into eastern Europe?

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 05:43:20 PM
QuoteUnless you think the Russian system of oligarchy has nothing to fear from a democratic uprising.

And the link from that to Trump & Brexit?

Western democracy looking chaotic and disfunctional would hardly lend inspiration to democratic hopefuls in Russia, would it?

Quote from: five points on September 15, 2020, 05:43:20 PM
Quote
The Russians are never going to go to war with the US. And vice versa. So it doesn't really matter how effective internet disinformation is in comparison to military effectiveness. All that matters is whether it is effective in itself, and given the relatively low investment and risk, worth the effort.
But she specifically mentioned military effectiveness.

Mea culpa. I thought you were making a more general point, not referring to piece in the article.

Again, on that, her points about disinformation aiding Russia's military outlook seems perfectly logical to me, particularly polarization blunting how a country could respond.


Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: sid waddell on September 15, 2020, 06:49:38 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 15, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
So where are the so called irish republican paramilitarys who claim to be left leaning why are they allowing the right to rise in irelannd whats going on.

You want them to go out and shoot them?

The problem is their numbers remain miniscule but they seem to have fooled a load of well meaning turnips into going out and marching for covid. Last Saturdays mess will damage that and whenever covid does slow down we will see if the alliance holds.
I don't think it will damage it to be honest - there was already rioting at one of the previous far right rallies at the Customs House on August 22nd and yet the crowds still increased for last Saturday

These "well meaning turnips" are already on the spectrum that inevitably leads to the far right

They're radicalised by a deep cynicism, anger and gullibility, and that will inevitably be turned against ethnic minorities and immigrants

The entirely made up propaganda about the fire in Balbriggan was the clearest example yet of how the far right see turning white working class people against ethnic minorities and immigrants through a blizzard of lies as their go to strategy

Reporting of these far right rallies so far has not framed the message effectively about what they really are - in several cases reporting has actually been quite favourable to them for those who skim read headlines -  this is a pattern that seems to be repeated over and over again across different countries - a false legitimacy is bestowed on them by negligent reporting

There seems to be negative feedback about that Donegal nutter, lots walked away when he started going on about replacement theory and praying. Three marches at the same time? They will fall apart as they always do.

The real problem is the Loyalist link up and the rent a mob they bring.

sid waddell

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 15, 2020, 09:14:28 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 15, 2020, 06:49:38 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 15, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
So where are the so called irish republican paramilitarys who claim to be left leaning why are they allowing the right to rise in irelannd whats going on.

You want them to go out and shoot them?

The problem is their numbers remain miniscule but they seem to have fooled a load of well meaning turnips into going out and marching for covid. Last Saturdays mess will damage that and whenever covid does slow down we will see if the alliance holds.
I don't think it will damage it to be honest - there was already rioting at one of the previous far right rallies at the Customs House on August 22nd and yet the crowds still increased for last Saturday

These "well meaning turnips" are already on the spectrum that inevitably leads to the far right

They're radicalised by a deep cynicism, anger and gullibility, and that will inevitably be turned against ethnic minorities and immigrants

The entirely made up propaganda about the fire in Balbriggan was the clearest example yet of how the far right see turning white working class people against ethnic minorities and immigrants through a blizzard of lies as their go to strategy

Reporting of these far right rallies so far has not framed the message effectively about what they really are - in several cases reporting has actually been quite favourable to them for those who skim read headlines -  this is a pattern that seems to be repeated over and over again across different countries - a false legitimacy is bestowed on them by negligent reporting

There seems to be negative feedback about that Donegal nutter, lots walked away when he started going on about replacement theory and praying. Three marches at the same time? They will fall apart as they always do.

The real problem is the Loyalist link up and the rent a mob they bring.

I think this is an angle where Sinn Fein people could have a positive effect by highlighting that

I think over time however the fascists could weed out those who are embarrassing them, or a more "respectable", "presentable" version of fascism could emerge with pretty much the same ideology, just slicker - they'll publicly separate themselves from the McConnells and O'Dohertys etc. and portray themselves as  fake "moderates"

I can't stand nationalism as a concept, yet Sinn Fein's nationalism is actually a key defender against the far right here because they're one of the few parties in Europe that combine nationalism with a broadly left, anti-racist stance

Eire90

ive heard some say the devout catholic thing from mcconnel is all an act but ive heard some say its real. Was mcconnel a former donegal football at minor level.

sid waddell

Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 11:04:05 PM
ive heard some say the devout catholic thing from mcconnel is all an act but ive heard some say its real. Was mcconnel a former donegal football at minor level.
He ran onto the pitch at the end of last year's Donegal county final shouting "Soros" into the face of Eamonn McGee in front of his wife and child

Eire90

There is one on facebook saying varadkers real mom is miriam o calaghan  who is hitlers child via ivf  and hitler is the grandson of baron rothschild so varadker is a hitler and a rotschild  and that was not satire.

five points

Quote from: Eire90 on September 15, 2020, 11:04:05 PM
ive heard some say the devout catholic thing from mcconnel is all an act but ive heard some say its real. Was mcconnel a former donegal football at minor level.

He's a lunatic. Viciously and loudly homophobic. There's nothing Catholic or Christian about that.

GetOverTheBar

What about Hitler escaping Germany before the Russians got to him in Berlin.

There was a show called Hunting Hitler, I only watched a few episodes - mostly pie in the sky stuff but they did uncover some interesting things from what I saw.

johnnycool

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on September 16, 2020, 11:02:24 AM
What about Hitler escaping Germany before the Russians got to him in Berlin.

There was a show called Hunting Hitler, I only watched a few episodes - mostly pie in the sky stuff but they did uncover some interesting things from what I saw.

He holded up in Argentina after escaping in a submarine.