The Many Faces of US Politics...

Started by Tyrones own, March 20, 2009, 09:29:14 PM

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whitey

Quote from: Syferus on December 13, 2017, 04:07:39 PM
Quote from: heganboy on December 13, 2017, 03:22:09 PM
Syferus,
I wouldn't be so sure

There is a strong base there

There isn't a strong base. There's a segment of malcontents on the right, he doesn't even unite his side like any Republican or Democrat candidate needs to do to win. The reason he won last time was more to do with Hillary being equally divisive (itself a madness) than it had to do with any great sea change in US politics.

A safe pair of hands will be more than enough to do Trump in, and his supporters will go back to the margins and movements like the Tea Party.

A safe pair of hands just like Hillary would be great for Republicans

heganboy

Agreed Whitey. The same auld shite isn't going to fly with the electorate.
Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity

J70

There are few candidates who would come with the negative baggage, both real and imagined, that Hillary did.

mrdeeds

Trump got elected on a platform that any strong Democratic candidate should own. The Democratic problem is they're as influenced by big money as Republicans if not more.

Bernie would be an ideal candidate who appears has strength in his cinvictions with a populous movement but perhaps by 2020 will be too old.

Stew might say a lot of stuff you don't agree with but he is right that Hilary was an awful candidate who was devisive. She lost to Trump ffs. A charasmatic social democratic would clean up.

Therealdonald

Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

J70

#11180
Quote from: Therealdonald on December 13, 2017, 05:44:21 PM
Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

Hillary will not be anywhere near the ticket in 2020. She's had two attempts now, and her own arrogance and sense of entitlement went a long way towards dooming her against possibly the worst candidate and human being to ever run for the office.

And the Dems' odds depend on who they nominate, whether Trump is still the incumbent, and what happens, for good or ill, between now and then. Three years off is way too soon to be predicting anything in politics in the US.

Therealdonald

Quote from: J70 on December 13, 2017, 05:49:33 PM
Quote from: Therealdonald on December 13, 2017, 05:44:21 PM
Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

Hillary will not be anywhere near the ticket in 2020. She's had two attempts now, and her own arrogance and sense of entitlement went a long way towards dooming her against possibly the worst candidate and human being to ever run for the office.

And the Dems' odds depend on who they nominate, whether Trump is still the incumbent, and what happens, for good or ill, between now and then. Three years off is way too soon to be predicting anything in politics in the US.

It's too soon to be predicting who will beat Trump, but he will be beat. This is the only start of the dominoes falling. In the space of a week, he upset his own voters in a Red State and the Muslim community in the World...that's no mean feat. Give him 4 years and the Pope will be coming out against him

Denn Forever

The thing is he has tried to  do every thing he promised.  Those who voted for him will do so again.  If the Democrats ran Hillary again, they'd deserve the same result.
I have more respect for a man
that says what he means and
means what he says...

whitey

#11183
Quote from: Therealdonald on December 13, 2017, 05:44:21 PM
Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

I deal in facts not spin

Romney beat Obama by 20 points in Alabama in 212

Roy Moore was on the same ballot in a state wide contest and won his respective race by 2 points against a Democrat

So back of the napkin math (and correct me if I'm wrong) but about 1/3 of the Republicans voters who voted for Romney did NOT vote for Roy Moore in his race in 2012. He is a very unpopular figure in Alabama, but popular enough with the base to win the primary....simple as

If Luther Strange had been there n the ballot he'd have beaten the Democrat by 15-20 points


seafoid

Quote from: whitey on December 13, 2017, 06:50:58 PM
Quote from: Therealdonald on December 13, 2017, 05:44:21 PM
Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

I deal in facts not spin

Romney beat Obama by 20 points in Alabama in 212

Roy Moore was on the same ballot in a state wide contest and won his respective race by 2 points against a Democrat

So back of the napkin math (and correct me if I'm wrong) but about 1/3 of the Republicans voters who voted for Romney did NOT vote for Roy Moore in his race in 2012. He is a very unpopular figure in Alabama, but popular enough with the base to win the primary....simple as

If Luther Strange had been there n the ballot he'd have beaten the Democrat by 15-20 points
The GOP had a normal person in charge in 2012
Trump is a liability.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

J70

Quote from: whitey on December 13, 2017, 06:50:58 PM
Quote from: Therealdonald on December 13, 2017, 05:44:21 PM
Just going to sit back and let the GOP spin-doctors go to work i.e Whitey and Fox Commander. This is the second stage in the uprising against Trump. After only a year, Trump and his reforms, promises, sexual misconduct and poor use of words, has led his approval ratings to sink to a new low. Multiply this by 4 and I reckon Hillary will be begged back to stand again. Democrat win in 2020 is as close to a certainty as you can get....the only bigger certainty is Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle in 2018.

I deal in facts not spin

Romney beat Obama by 20 points in Alabama in 212

Roy Moore was on the same ballot in a state wide contest and won his respective race by 2 points against a Democrat

So back of the napkin math (and correct me if I'm wrong) but about 1/3 of the Republicans voters who voted for Romney did NOT vote for Roy Moore in his race in 2012. He is a very unpopular figure in Alabama, but popular enough with the base to win the primary....simple as

If Luther Strange had been there n the ballot he'd have beaten the Democrat by 15-20 points

Strange had his own issues, but yes, he would have won fairly comfortably.

However, the Bannon wing is not interested in normal right wingers. It's going to be an interesting spring/summer in GOP land as the primaries get underway.

mrhardyannual

I'm not a Trump supporter, nor a Republican but have children living in the States and a very wide circle of friends and relations across the country. Some are die-hard Republicans, others very active Democrats. Some are former Democrats who are now Trump-Republicans but I know no Democrats who were former Republicans.

Watching people discuss American politics on the Board and elsewhere is like listening to Europeans discussing American gun culture. We just don't get it. We know what we think is the rational approach to guns, we know what a sane response to gun violence should be but we can't get the measure of the the gun-toting brigade. It's the same with Trump. You would imagine that he is in a weak position (if he headed a European democracy he'd be gone) and since we didn't expect to see him get there we don't expect him to survive. But we are judging by European standards and as such judgements are flawed.

I am amazed by the people I know to be well balanced people in secure employment, who would be moderates at home here who are Trump supporters. East coast Democrats are very liberal on social issues but have no feel for the working class. This is what Trump has tapped into. And if we think that he will be easily defeated we have learned nothing. The more the Democrats concentrate on liberal social matters the more they isolate themselves from the white-working class who rightly or wrongly see themselves as the great contributors and the least beneficiaries.

I can't wait to see the back of Trump but based on what I'm hearing I give him a better than 50% chance of getting a second term.

seafoid

The Dems dumped conyers and the other guy over harassment. It will be a huge theme in 2020. Trump.won a huge vote from women over 45 in 2016 but he is tolerant of chauvinism on top.of being an asshole.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Syferus

#11188
It doesn't matter what you're hearing, if I'm being honest. Trump appeals to a segement of the right, but no one else. It sets him at a severe handicap in general elections as in all but the last one (because the other nominee proved equally divisive) you need to solidify your base to win. Trump didn't even come close to doing that even at his brightest moment. And the energy on the left to remove him will be just as great as any passion there is for him on the alt-right.

Even the democrats won't be able to fumble the ball like the did last year a second time.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: mrhardyannual on December 13, 2017, 07:18:57 PM
I'm not a Trump supporter, nor a Republican but have children living in the States and a very wide circle of friends and relations across the country. Some are die-hard Republicans, others very active Democrats. Some are former Democrats who are now Trump-Republicans but I know no Democrats who were former Republicans.

Watching people discuss American politics on the Board and elsewhere is like listening to Europeans discussing American gun culture. We just don't get it. We know what we think is the rational approach to guns, we know what a sane response to gun violence should be but we can't get the measure of the the gun-toting brigade. It's the same with Trump. You would imagine that he is in a weak position (if he headed a European democracy he'd be gone) and since we didn't expect to see him get there we don't expect him to survive. But we are judging by European standards and as such judgements are flawed.

I am amazed by the people I know to be well balanced people in secure employment, who would be moderates at home here who are Trump supporters. East coast Democrats are very liberal on social issues but have no feel for the working class. This is what Trump has tapped into. And if we think that he will be easily defeated we have learned nothing. The more the Democrats concentrate on liberal social matters the more they isolate themselves from the white-working class who rightly or wrongly see themselves as the great contributors and the least beneficiaries.

I can't wait to see the back of Trump but based on what I'm hearing I give him a better than 50% chance of getting a second term.

You might be right. This is no time for complacency. The Dems had an open net in Alabama, and yet a prosecutor of KKK men had a hard team defeating a mysoginist alleged child molester. In a normal country it would have been a landslide even if someone as crazy as Moore managed to get on the ballot without being laughed off the stage like Lord Such. The US is not a normal country. All manner of deranged wackos and sickos get on the ballot and sometimes they manage to win.