26 County General Election 2020

[ballinaman]

David McWilliams podcast on the election result a balanced analysis in my opinion . Worth a listen even if ya can't stand the ballix

[Main Street]

I don't think Michael Martin will risk dividing the party over a decision to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Even if he stood down I doubt that another party leader could effect close to a consensus on the issue.

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

Obvious as it looks I think they won't do that.  Making the Shinners leaders of opposition will help them grow even more support.   Clipping away at the sidelines, getting the airtime that leader of opposition gets.

I think FF/FG would rather not face that.

/Jim.

Practically speaking there is no way a coalition with a working majority can be formed without FG or FF participation.
A minority coalition will not function with FF and FG in opposition.
FG emphatically will not join with SF.
FF are split.
What can FF and FG do to avoid SF from making hay in opposition, becoming the voice of a larger % of the dissafected?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

David McWilliams podcast on the election result a balanced analysis in my opinion . Worth a listen even if ya can't stand the ballix

Can you post a link?

[five points]

Or if they tried to form a government, FF and FG refused to respect the 25% of votes they got and SF went back and said due to FF/FG insulting the electorate we need a bigger majority now, I think they would get it. No one is running back to FF and FG in the short term. What evidence is there that suggests otherwise?

It depends how it all plays out. There's no evidence for anything here, by the way. We're in the realm of supposition and the only precedents are the Labour bubbles of 1992 and 2011, when on both occasions they concluded that they'd suffer if they caused a fresh election.

[J70]

Thomas Pringle back in.

Why, what has he done, shout his mouth off from the back benches, like a typical lefty. Remind you of someone?

Who is he supposed to remind me of?

And nothing wrong with the odd fly in the ointment raising concerns on behalf of the less fortunate.

He reminds me of you. He wants an increase in welfare and social housing in Donegal, for people who have no interest in working. The working and middle classes have to pay for all this, bit of a balls when the working class & middle class are struggling, with paying mortgages, childcare, food etc.

How silly of me.

I must have forgotten all those posts and discussions where I was advocating for an increase in dole and social housing for those "who have no interest in working".

[RedHand88]

David McWilliams podcast on the election result a balanced analysis in my opinion . Worth a listen even if ya can't stand the ballix

The bit about there being more foreign nationals than unionists on the island of Ireland. Eye opener.
Really puts unionism into perspective.

[Main Street]

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

Agree 100%

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

I think it would backfire.

Or if they tried to form a government, FF and FG refused to respect the 25% of votes they got and SF went back and said due to FF/FG insulting the electorate we need a bigger majority now, I think they would get it. No one is running back to FF and FG in the short term. What evidence is there that suggests otherwise?

There's a Hobson's choice of sorts being put to Sinn Fein, a challenge to form a working coalition and if SF can't form one, it's their fault for not being able to attract TDs/political parties who refuse to work with them.

[weareros]

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

Agree 100%

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

I think it would backfire.

Or if they tried to form a government, FF and FG refused to respect the 25% of votes they got and SF went back and said due to FF/FG insulting the electorate we need a bigger majority now, I think they would get it. No one is running back to FF and FG in the short term. What evidence is there that suggests otherwise?

There's a Hobson's choice of sorts being put to Sinn Fein, a challenge to form a working coalition and if SF can't form one, it's their fault for not being able to attract TDs/political parties who refuse to work with them.

And it's a fair challenge. If Mary Lou is going to convince Europe and UK to pay for a United Ireland, for Boris to agree to a border poll, the Unionists to be happy in a United Ireland, for a 100,000 new homes at 65k each, fix health, get rid of property tax, get rid of USC, make multinationals and wealthy pay more tax- then convincing a bunch of overpaid civil servants with big pensions to keep a government in place for a few years should actually be the easiest of those challenges.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

There is absolutely no way SF will be able to form a government that leans left and lasts any time in the current world economic climate.

[seafoid]

I don't think Michael Martin will risk dividing the party over a decision to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Even if he stood down I doubt that another party leader could effect close to a consensus on the issue.

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

Obvious as it looks I think they won't do that.  Making the Shinners leaders of opposition will help them grow even more support.   Clipping away at the sidelines, getting the airtime that leader of opposition gets.

I think FF/FG would rather not face that.

/Jim.

Practically speaking there is no way a coalition with a working majority can be formed without FG or FF participation.
A minority coalition will not function with FF and FG in opposition.
FG emphatically will not join with SF.
FF are split.
What can FF and FG do to avoid SF from making hay in opposition, becoming the voice of a larger % of the dissafected?

FG can benefit from being in opposition. FF have some hard questions to answer.
They need to answer to the disaffected or become irrelevant. 
SF have taken a huge chunk of FF votes.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-spell-in-proper-opposition-finds-growing-support-in-fianna-f%C3%A1il-1.4169148

But none of the options are easy for Martin. To save his leadership he will need to enter government with either Sinn Féin or Fine Gael. The first option has the potential to sharply divide Fianna Fáil, and the latter, according to TDs, would be rejected by the parliamentary party and rank-and-file membership.
The third option, and the one finding increasing favour in the party, is returning to full-throated opposition. The problem for Martin is this would likely require him to stand aside as leader.

[Main Street]

All well and good to say FF need to be in full throated opposition but that option is not available to them.
They either enter some form of coalition or nothing.

[five points]

But none of the options are easy for Martin. To save his leadership he will need to enter government with either Sinn Féin or Fine Gael. The first option has the potential to sharply divide Fianna Fáil, and the latter, according to TDs, would be rejected by the parliamentary party and rank-and-file membership.
The third option, and the one finding increasing favour in the party, is returning to full-throated opposition. The problem for Martin is this would likely require him to stand aside as leader.

Martin is banjaxed either way. There's no coming back from this.

[seafoid]

All well and good to say FF need to be in full throated opposition but that option is not available to them.
They either enter some form of coalition or nothing.

If FF won't go into coalition with SF or FG and if the Left parties fall short numbers-wise there will have to be another election.
Too many parties wanting to be in opposition.

[Rossfan]

I see SF are putting out their ATeam for the negotiations-Pearse Doherty, Eoin Ó Broin, Louise O'Reilly.
Senior hurling about to get underway.