26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

Chief

It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.

Rossfan

Calm down everyone till we see how the seats turn out.
This is a poll of 5,000 people.
We may have to wait a biteen longer for the €65k houses, no taxes and free everything.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Main Street

Quote from: Chief on February 08, 2020, 11:12:24 PM
It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.
FF and FG can manage with teflon efficiency to present the idea of coalition between themselves as a huge selfless sacriface made in the greater interests of the country.
Personally I believe the Shinners are better off being an effective opposition and planning to be the largest party after the next election.
They need to mature more.
Atm, they lack what Trap referred to as  'personality', they stand for populist causes like pensions and referendum on UI, but what happens after that?

macdanger2

Labour down from 6.6% to potentially 4.6 is a disaster following a disaster for them

yellowcard

Quote from: Chief on February 08, 2020, 11:12:24 PM
It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.

Not at all. I think you underestimate the lust for power and the perks that go with it that exist within politicians. There will be a government that includes FF and Micheál Martin as Taoiseach and my guess is that it will be propped up in a confidence & supply by FG or with an outright coalition of the two. If FF were to take SF in, then Micheál Martin would have no credibility left.

Chief

Quote from: Main Street on February 08, 2020, 11:33:49 PM
Quote from: Chief on February 08, 2020, 11:12:24 PM
It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.
FF and FG can manage with teflon efficiency to present the idea of coalition between themselves as a huge selfless sacriface made in the greater interests of the country.
Personally I believe the Shinners are better off being an effective opposition and planning to be the largest party after the next election.
They need to mature more.
Atm, they lack what Trap referred to as  'personality', they stand for populist causes like pensions and referendum on UI, but what happens after that?

Perhaps, but even in the event of another confidence and supply or grand coalition (with the help of a few others), the majority will be very slim. Shinners would delight at the chance to cut lumps out of them for as long as it lasts then run more candidates next time round. I can't see Fianna Fáil being that short sighted.

Rossfan

Let's wait for the seat numbers.....
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Dubh driocht

We're living in remarkable times and sometimes when you're in the middle of something its hard to see the bigger picture.
My take is that Ireland is a good country with decent people, shaped by history,spirituality and the weather.  We are reasonably tolerant, hard working and enjoy life but are well aware of the impact of poverty, hunger and unfairness. Like all nationalities there is a darker side, manifested in intolerance which we saw in the brutal murder of Paul Quinn when none had the courage to say stop.
Times move on; the right wing populists in England forced a weak PM into a nonsensical referendum at a time that the decent majority had no leadership and the UK sleep walked into leaving the one decent structure in place to moderate against extremism from left or right.
On this island the short sighted bigotry among some unionists led them to support the UK leaving the EU without thinking of what would happen next. A bit like the otherwise decent Blair government supporting the American war on Iraq.

So now in 2020  we have the decent majority in the North saying that we reject the extreme voices who are essentially nihilistic

And now in the South,  most young people have said they want a change from the boring rhetoric of two right wing parties, to support a party who are far from perfect but offer hope of a nation once again.  And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
This is a GAA forum. We welcome different voices. However there's nothing wrong with supporting a party who are upfront about wanting a United Ireland.
Varadkar and particularly Coveney have served our nation well at an important time. If Martin is to be the next leader of the 26 counties I hope he will have the courage to be a true soldier of destiny.

weareros

Quote from: yellowcard on February 08, 2020, 11:44:30 PM
Quote from: Chief on February 08, 2020, 11:12:24 PM
It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.

Not at all. I think you underestimate the lust for power and the perks that go with it that exist within politicians. There will be a government that includes FF and Micheál Martin as Taoiseach and my guess is that it will be propped up in a confidence & supply by FG or with an outright coalition of the two. If FF were to take SF in, then Micheál Martin would have no credibility left.

Based on that exit poll no guarantee FF will be largest party. I expect FG to end up a few percentages higher based on the near embarrassment of identifying as a FG voter after Tan disaster. Expect if Martin wants to be Taoiseach, he will have to do a deal with SF and Greens.

yellowcard

Quote from: weareros on February 09, 2020, 12:06:58 AM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 08, 2020, 11:44:30 PM
Quote from: Chief on February 08, 2020, 11:12:24 PM
It would take serious brass necks for FF and FG to work together again and present it as change. SF will be in the mix government wise, in some capacity, or it's another election.

Not at all. I think you underestimate the lust for power and the perks that go with it that exist within politicians. There will be a government that includes FF and Micheál Martin as Taoiseach and my guess is that it will be propped up in a confidence & supply by FG or with an outright coalition of the two. If FF were to take SF in, then Micheál Martin would have no credibility left.

Based on that exit poll no guarantee FF will be largest party. I expect FG to end up a few percentages higher based on the near embarrassment of identifying as a FG voter after Tan disaster. Expect if Martin wants to be Taoiseach, he will have to do a deal with SF and Greens.

Current projections are FF 47, FG 43 & SF 35. There will be a lot of marginals but it would still be my opinion that FF will get more transfers than FG and therefore take most seats. SF will probably lose out on 5-10 seats due to not running enough candidates.

Martin would have to resign as leader before he could go into government with SF.

Farrandeelin

Micheal Martin will have to be ran if these figures hold up.
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

seafoid

Quote from: Rossfan on February 08, 2020, 11:49:12 PM
Let's wait for the seat numbers.....

It's trína chéile..
A lot of people are obviously unhappy with the Dubs winning 5 in a row.

Rossfan

#777
Fitzmaurice looking like a first count winner in Ros/G.
Naughten doing well too.
2 FFrs and Kerrane to fight it out for the last seat.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

marty34

Great to see the RTÉ muppets and the Indo journalists having a meltdown this morning - all big sad heads on them.

Loving it.

macdanger2

SF councillor in Galway West who lost her seat in the locals looking at ~15% now, some turn around!!