Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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OgraAnDun

Quote from: omaghjoe on December 08, 2017, 07:26:59 AM
Few more...

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/939026315562192896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-42276855

Seems like May used the DUP to gain a softer Brexit. She is basically saying to the hardliners that they have three options:

1) Have a hard Brexit with a border in Ireland and be prepared for violence and the probably break up of the Union - which will be on you.

2) Have a hard Brexit in Britain with the north retaining special status, and probably break up the Union - which will also be on you.

3) Stay in the single market, maintain the Union and everyone is happy.

I don't like the bit about the 6C executive being the ones to agree on special status for the north if the UK do decide to leave the single market in the end. We probably won't have one by March next year and even if we do, it'll have a DUP majority and they won't be voting for special status.

haranguerer

It doesn't matter how hard or soft the brexit, there won't be a border in ireland.

You're looking at this in too short a time scale. From my reading if UK and Ireland/EU diverge (which won't happen for some time yet, and may not at all in the key areas) then they need to agree what to do re north. If they can't agree, then NI exec decides for itself. Theres a few fair 'if's in there, prob would never come about, and if it did will be years down the line.

Seems to me from a UI aspiration point of view, best thing that could happen now (assuming that phase 1 agreements are 'banked') is that brexit is hard, and subsequently disastrous so north aligns itself closer to south

seafoid

Nigel Fraud in the Torygraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/07/sake-country-tories-must-ditch-theresa-may-late/

"Every day that the Prime Minister remains in office brings us closer to a Corbyn government and a betrayal of Brexit

And so Theresa May has got her deal. But at what cost? To the 17.4 million Britons who voted to leave the EU, I would argue a heavy one. For the plain fact is that the UK remains a member of the EU in all but name. This is a fudge, as anyone who cares to be honest with themselves will acknowledge.

According to the terms as they appear this morning, vast sums of public money will continue to flow from the UK to Brussels. Britain will continue to be in the grip of the European Court of Justice. And no trade deals can be struck yet because of the transition zone in which the UK will be stuck.

This deal in Brussels is good news for Mrs May as we can now move on to the next stage of humiliation. This is not what we voted for."


https://youtu.be/z5rRZdiu1UE
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

vallankumous

Quote from: haranguerer on December 08, 2017, 11:03:37 AM
It doesn't matter how hard or soft the brexit, there won't be a border in ireland.

You're looking at this in too short a time scale. From my reading if UK and Ireland/EU diverge (which won't happen for some time yet, and may not at all in the key areas) then they need to agree what to do re north. If they can't agree, then NI exec decides for itself. Theres a few fair 'if's in there, prob would never come about, and if it did will be years down the line.

Seems to me from a UI aspiration point of view, best thing that could happen now (assuming that phase 1 agreements are 'banked') is that brexit is hard, and subsequently disastrous so north aligns itself closer to south

You are looking at it from a bubble. More important than the border is that Germany wants to sell cars to the UK and France want's to buy weapons from the UK.

haranguerer

And how does that conflict with anything I've said?

Rossfan

Quote from: OgraAnDun on December 08, 2017, 10:48:21 AM
Quote from: omaghjoe on December 08, 2017, 07:26:59 AM
Few more...

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/939026315562192896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-42276855

Seems like May used the DUP to gain a softer Brexit. She is basically saying to the hardliners that they have three options:

1) Have a hard Brexit with a border in Ireland and be prepared for violence and the probably break up of the Union - which will be on you.

2) Have a hard Brexit in Britain with the north retaining special status, and probably break up the Union - which will also be on you.

3) Stay in the single market, maintain the Union and everyone is happy.

I don't like the bit about the 6C executive being the ones to agree on special status for the north if the UK do decide to leave the single market in the end. We probably won't have one by March next year and even if we do, it'll have a DUP majority and they won't be voting for special status.
They won't if SDLP,  UUP and Alliance take positions in the  Executive -if it or Stormont every get restored.


Milltown and th'other lad will be happy I didn't say DUPUDA  :D
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

seafoid

One of the key themes of the week was the DUP'S fear of being bounced into a united Ireland.
Varadkar and the Diplomatic core had to reassure them that this was not the case  . Certain songs were banned from the discussions .

 https://youtu.be/x9UU8CiFEYw

I think it was the week the Unionists became losers.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Milltown Row2

DUP will be sucking up to SF now to get the house on the Hill up and running, be a good time now for SF to tell them to f**k off
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

GJL

Wee Sammy is not happy.... Farage is not happy....

Seems we got a good deal. ;D

HiMucker

Quote from: vallankumous on December 08, 2017, 10:04:31 AM
Quote from: DickyRock on December 08, 2017, 09:52:11 AM
I think this is better than Monday. Ensures north/south trade, and West / East. Does specify East / West. So NI could have best of both.

It does mean that NI could have higher regulations that both EU / UK that allows trade into both.

The north will be no different to the rest of the UK.

The EU and the UK will agree on regulation that is aligned, probably along existing custom union lines. The UK will call theirs something else, UK continent export regulation or something (CER).

Monday was a 'false flag operation'. To test the response. It was the response they wanted and the one they helped provoke by sending Varadkar out with special deal for the north. It seems Varadkar didn't know anything about this but the DUP were prepared. As soon as Varadkar called his press conference and the leaked documents came on line, every interested party in the UK were shouting for special status. Now everyone is happy.

Let's hope Corbyn keeps his mouth shut for a few weeks.
This wee scenario makes some sense apart from the British PM being completely embarrassed on the international stage.  I may even buy that, as a crafty political move if she had been a strong leader up to that point and had the points to recover from it.  But she didn't, she has been through embarrassment after embarrassment, and I would struggle to accept that she put herself through a charade that she will get pummelled for quite a while to come.  There is no way she deliberately done that.

HiMucker

Quote from: Tubberman on December 08, 2017, 10:41:32 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on December 08, 2017, 10:03:09 AM
Personally, i'm scratching my head. It's a load of aspirational nonsense. There's no agreement because there's nothing specific in it. Sadly I feel when it comes to the real dealing on this the political landscape won't be as favourable.

There were never going to be specifics at this stage - that's all Phase 2. Phase 1 was just about setting parameters, and I think we've done well on that front.
That would be my take

screenexile

Brexiters feel shit. . . Remainers feel a small bit of relief.

Not exactly a victory for anyone!!

BennyHarp

Quote from: HiMucker on December 08, 2017, 12:26:31 PM
Quote from: vallankumous on December 08, 2017, 10:04:31 AM
Quote from: DickyRock on December 08, 2017, 09:52:11 AM
I think this is better than Monday. Ensures north/south trade, and West / East. Does specify East / West. So NI could have best of both.

It does mean that NI could have higher regulations that both EU / UK that allows trade into both.

The north will be no different to the rest of the UK.

The EU and the UK will agree on regulation that is aligned, probably along existing custom union lines. The UK will call theirs something else, UK continent export regulation or something (CER).

Monday was a 'false flag operation'. To test the response. It was the response they wanted and the one they helped provoke by sending Varadkar out with special deal for the north. It seems Varadkar didn't know anything about this but the DUP were prepared. As soon as Varadkar called his press conference and the leaked documents came on line, every interested party in the UK were shouting for special status. Now everyone is happy.

Let's hope Corbyn keeps his mouth shut for a few weeks.
This wee scenario makes some sense apart from the British PM being completely embarrassed on the international stage.  I may even buy that, as a crafty political move if she had been a strong leader up to that point and had the points to recover from it.  But she didn't, she has been through embarrassment after embarrassment, and I would struggle to accept that she put herself through a charade that she will get pummelled for quite a while to come.  There is no way she deliberately done that.

Her party are queueing up to praise her now. Its all a charade at the minute with wooly agreements which don't actually mean anything being the only way to move things on.
That was never a square ball!!

OgraAnDun

Quote from: screenexile on December 08, 2017, 12:37:57 PM
Brexiters feel shit. . . Remainers feel a small bit of relief.

Not exactly a victory for anyone!!

The sign of a good compromise.

screenexile

Quote from: OgraAnDun on December 08, 2017, 01:05:05 PM
Quote from: screenexile on December 08, 2017, 12:37:57 PM
Brexiters feel shit. . . Remainers feel a small bit of relief.

Not exactly a victory for anyone!!

The sign of a good compromise.

Yeah I actually don't think May could have done much better in this case.