Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[johnnycool]

The silver lining to the cloud is that a United Ireland is closer. I only hope and pray when it comes about we've moved away from the Varadkar/Murphy Tory style politics on this island and our kids get the United Ireland that brave people a century ago envisioned.

Sorry, I can't ever see North Down voting for a united Ireland.

North Down and MR2 will vote for a UI when the prices for Prosecco and wine start going through the roof 

Seriously though I think the will for a united Ireland will be tested by what impact Brexit has to the pockets of the inhabitants here.

[imtommygunn]

It's an absolute game changer. Brexit has put it from not in my lifetime(I'm 40) to this could happen before I retire.

It is not remotely imminent and I get that but definitely goalposts have shifted significantly.

Who was the main party here behind it as well... the DUP. You couldn't make it up.

[Rossfan]

There'll be a statue of Dodds and Foster in Crossmaglen one day

[balladmaker]

It's an absolute game changer. Brexit has put it from not in my lifetime(I'm 40) to this could happen before I retire.

It is not remotely imminent and I get that but definitely goalposts have shifted significantly.

Who was the main party here behind it as well... the DUP. You couldn't make it up.

Someone earlier said that a border poll tomorrow would yield a 60/40 result in favour of remaining in the UK.  I think it would be much closer than that currently, but with the same outcome.  The GFA allows for a border poll every 7 years to test the water, but only after an initial border poll has been granted by the SoS.  So whether nationalism will win the first border poll seems to be irrelevant to SF at present, so long as they get a poll in the first place.  Personally, I'd prefer to see the groundwork being done and secure the win at the first poll, should that take the next 10 years to complete.

But one thing is for certain imo, a UI is now inevitable, and has been brought forward by a generation due to Brexit.  It is a matter of when, and not if. 

[Applesisapples]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

[Ambrose]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves there are a lot of bridges to cross before we can even think about a UI. Speaking of bridges, we have to consider the people who want to build a bridge to Scotland as a way of strengthening the union. As warped as they are, they need to realise that they would have much more clout in Dáil Éireann than they ever will in the House of Commons. That won't be an easy task.
I don't think we will see a UI for at least another generation, probably two. I'm 52 now, I doubt I will see it, but it is definitely closer now than it ever has been at any time in my lifetime.

[HiMucker]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

McCallion was a terrible candidate. Numerous blunders. Plus the amount of people in Derry connected to or have relatives and friends in front line services would be fairly high. SF was always going to struggle to get their vote considering the strain they have been under.

[Ambrose]

@sinnfeinireland vote share swings by constituency.

Foyle -19%
W.Belfast -12.9%
E.Derry -10.9%
W.Tyrone -10.6%
Mid Ulster -8.6%
Newry/Armagh -8%
S.Down -7.5%
S.Antrim -6.7%
N.Belfast +5.4%
FST-3.9%
N.Antrim -3.5%
E.Antrim -3.5%
U.Bann -3.4%
Strangford -1.3%
LV -1.1%

[tbrick18]

It's not O'Neill's leadership. It's not going to work. Either in Stormont or Westminster. Replacing O'Neill and not turning up won't make any difference. You have to go to your work and sort Education and Health and Infrastructure and Agriculture. SF aren't doing that and they will continue to be punished by the electorate.

It is O'Neill.

If you asked me to name the biggest obstruction to a United Ireland right now - I'd say its Michelle O'Neill.

They should not be talking about a border poll.

They should instead be
- constantly pointing out what would become better in the North if there was a United Ireland.
- publishing studies on how a transition might be managed.
- publishing frameworks for protecting Ulster-Scots culture.
- publishing forecasts on economic growth as a result of unification.

... and I don't mean get their own to draw up the above. I mean inviting academics and experts from across the world (I'm sure the EU and ROI would be interested in funding some of it anyway) to compile studies, recommendations and projections.

I think O'Neill is an issue. She's too confrontational, especially when you compare her against Martin.
However, I don't think she'd be enough to put people off a UI.

I agree on all the points you say they should be talking about. I think some of this has already been done in terms of studies by academia. There was a article a few weeks ago about the perceived bias QUB have towards nationalism as in the studies they have done there have been more positive aspects to re-unification than negative ones.

I believe, there are plenty in ROI who would not want re-unification. I believe there are some nationalists who would not vote for a united Ireland as they believe it would hit them in the pocket. I also believe that after Brexit if the economy in NI is hit as hard as has been predicted there would be a substantial traditional unionist demographic who would vote for a united Ireland - in my experience unionist values are all very important unless it's costing them money, then the priorities change. Look how keen the DUP are to get Stormont up and running all of a sudden!

I'm not 100% on this, but I think I can remember reading somewhere that in the Good Friday Agreement, it says a border poll can only be called by UK government and they would only do so if it was felt there was a change in the will of the people towards a united Ireland and a good chance of it winning. Then, after that border poll, even if it was rejected, a further border poll must be held every 7 years. (I might have made this all up, but it's knocking around in the back of my head somewhere).
So part of me thinks, SF are calling for a poll as soon as possible even if they know it will fail as perhaps then next one 7 years later could win due to the effects of Brexit having hit home.

SF haven't helped themselves, as they just don't have a very high calibre of politician at the moment.

One thing I know for sure, I've been telling my kids to stick at school and get a qualification of some sort as I can't see that there are going to be many opportunities for them in this country given Brexit and some of bigotry that just seems to keep dragging on. Depressing times as a parent wondering how your kids are going to survive. Mrs. Tbrick and I have actually had some conversations about moving over the border (we'll probably never do it), such is the feeling of uncertainty for the future.

[BennyCake]

@sinnfeinireland vote share swings by constituency.

Foyle -19%
W.Belfast -12.9%
E.Derry -10.9%
W.Tyrone -10.6%
Mid Ulster -8.6%
Newry/Armagh -8%
S.Down -7.5%
S.Antrim -6.7%
N.Belfast +5.4%
FST-3.9%
N.Antrim -3.5%
E.Antrim -3.5%
U.Bann -3.4%
Strangford -1.3%
LV -1.1%

A poor election all round then for SF. And winning the Dodds seat was irrelevant anyway, as the Tories no longer need the DUP's support anyway.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

McCallion was a terrible candidate. Numerous blunders. Plus the amount of people in Derry connected to or have relatives and friends in front line services would be fairly high. SF was always going to struggle to get their vote considering the strain they have been under.

Having been very close to canvasser at the doors the scale of the dissatisfaction with Elisha and SF was very very high. This is West of the Bann, which is far removed from Belfast in economics and services, there is no us v them headcount needed either which allows people to be honest in their voting.
Elisha was very poor throughout her tenure, she came across like she was more interested in make -up and hotel rooms than anything else. Blunders which involved major gaffs on hotel rooms in London, poor judgment on her husband's prosecution, the debt collector gaff, sherbet at the volunteer's dance in Ballybofey, James McClean begging letters, silly xmas cards. The whole town was making fun of it.
On top of all of that she made no inroads in any of the important issues in Derry-jobs, health, infrastructure, Magee etc.
Derry has a lot of  poor SF staff who are setting themselves up to run the communities through Peace IV and SIF backhanders. Abortion took 2k votes away also, and maybe more if people had have known before that  Colum would beat her easily. Aontú could have hit 4k if the scale of gap was known the week before, but people played it safe to get her out.

[Jeepers Creepers]

Question for those in Derry, why did Eastwood win so well. From a distance Anderson is a turn off, was McCallion tarred with that brush? Or does Derry really believe Westminister is the place to be.

McCallion was a terrible candidate. Numerous blunders. Plus the amount of people in Derry connected to or have relatives and friends in front line services would be fairly high. SF was always going to struggle to get their vote considering the strain they have been under.

Having been very close to canvasser at the doors the scale of the dissatisfaction with Elisha and SF was very very high. This is West of the Bann, which is far removed from Belfast in economics and services, there is no us v them headcount needed either which allows people to be honest in their voting.
Elisha was very poor throughout her tenure, she came across like she was more interested in make -up and hotel rooms than anything else. Blunders which involved major gaffs on hotel rooms in London, poor judgment on her husband's prosecution, the debt collector gaff, sherbet at the volunteer's dance in Ballybofey, James McClean begging letters, silly xmas cards. The whole town was making fun of it.
On top of all of that she made no inroads in any of the important issues in Derry-jobs, health, infrastructure, Magee etc.
Derry has a lot of  poor SF staff who are setting themselves up to run the communities through Peace IV and SIF backhanders. Abortion took 2k votes away also, and maybe more if people had have known before that  Colum would beat her easily. Aontú could have hit 4k if the scale of gap was known the week before, but people played it safe to get her out.

For us non Derry wans , can you elaborate more on these blunders/gaffs. Genuine question by the way.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I think O'Neill is an issue. She's too confrontational, especially when you compare her against Martin.
However, I don't think she'd be enough to put people off a UI.

Oh its not that she'd put people off - but I suppose thats a part of it too.

Its more that she is utterly ineffective at pointing everyone in the right direction to make it happen. If anything, she is moving in the wrong direction. Until she is gone, I don't see SF ever actually working toward what will help achieve a UI.


SF need to be taking a back seat in terms of the public face of the issue (due to baggage) - but they need to be quietly directing matters behind the scenes
- getting the studies initiated (via MEPs for instance, or their TDs) - but those studies must be neutral 3rd party.
- getting frameworks established (via cross-party working groups in the Dail for example)
- quietly talking with loyalists behind the scenes - seeing what needs to happen for everyones economic best interest (they've done these on the QT before and could do so again)

Basically, right now SF need to be coaxing the matter by presenting factual information on the positives of a UI - and do no more than that (as that is ramming it down the moderate unionist throat). Get the information compiled, put it out there and let it largely speak for itself. SF have too much historical baggage to ever persuade many.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Someone earlier said that a border poll tomorrow would yield a 60/40 result in favour of remaining in the UK.  I think it would be much closer than that currently, but with the same outcome.  The GFA allows for a border poll every 7 years to test the water, but only after an initial border poll has been granted by the SoS.  So whether nationalism will win the first border poll seems to be irrelevant to SF at present, so long as they get a poll in the first place.  Personally, I'd prefer to see the groundwork being done and secure the win at the first poll, should that take the next 10 years to complete.

Yeah, I agree. A 50% + 1 win is not a win at all. Its far too divisive and will cause as much trouble as it solves.

Unless this place goes to the dung heap altogether over the 12-24 months, then a 5 year campaign of information, coaxing on the positives and looking for a 70+% win is the way to go IMO.

But one thing is for certain imo, a UI is now inevitable, and has been brought forward by a generation due to Brexit.  It is a matter of when, and not if.

Agreed. Thanks Arlene! 

[imtommygunn]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves there are a lot of bridges to cross before we can even think about a UI. Speaking of bridges, we have to consider the people who want to build a bridge to Scotland as a way of strengthening the union. As warped as they are, they need to realise that they would have much more clout in Dáil Éireann than they ever will in the House of Commons. That won't be an easy task.
I don't think we will see a UI for at least another generation, probably two. I'm 52 now, I doubt I will see it, but it is definitely closer now than it ever has been at any time in my lifetime.

The funny thing about the bridge is that if there is going to be a sea border then there'd need to be a border between NI and Scotland on that bridge I would expect so in the highly(highly highly highly highly etc) unlikely scenario they got their bridge they'd get a border too and wouldn't like that)