Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[trailer]

Don't worry about these polls. SF say that Westminster doesn't matter even if Conservatives gain a huge majority.

[bennydorano]

Tactical voting is being wildly overegged imo, it will be fairly minimal in comparison to regular voting habits, bad weather or seasonal apathy could be much bigger factors in turnouts. The registration of millions of Young voters would appear to be a boon to Labour but who knows, it's unlikely they'll be spread across marginals in a way that will only help Labour. The Labour breakthtough ain't coming.

[seafoid]

Johnson is a poor leader and this confirms it. The Tories must be worried with 2 weeks left. They are playing a very safety first campaign and did the bare minimum with the manifesto. Johnson could still f**k everything up.

The Tories are worried but the extent of their worries is whether they will get a majority or not. They will be the largest party but then they already were. The whole point of the election was to get them over the line in a majority position with 100% of their successful candidates confirming in advance full discipline on the Brexit issue.

The only campaign agenda is to identify themselves as the natural hone for those who want to leave the EU (c50% of the electorate) and Scots who want to stay in UK (c50% of the Scottish electorate). Policy light. Detail light. Scrutiny light. Stay out of trouble.

Leave voters are going to decide this election.

Remain are 53% now
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/brexit-polls-latest-john-curtice-remain-lead-leave-non-voters-97295

Neither Corbyn nor Johnson are attractive leaders, for various reasons.
It's going to come down to this. I think tactical voting will play a role as well.
If Labour's numbers continue to improve a hung Parliament is likely.

The point is that the Tory/Brexit Raving Looney Party deal presents Leave voters with a really simple voting choice in most constituencies. Labour needs to retain as many Leave voters as possible. Leave voters decide this election. The paradox here is that Remainers like myself need Labour to offer something attractive to Leave voters in order to see of the threat of No Deal Leave and ultimately Leave altogether

   
   https://www.ft.com/content/bd377369-41ee-30e9-9d36-3f628db09a03

   Labour to shake up strategy after poll foreshadows heavy defeat

FT political editor George Parker reports:

Labour is to change its election strategy to strengthen its appeal to Leave voters, after an in depth opinion poll found the party could be on course to lose dozens of seats to the Conservatives.

Barry Gardiner, shadow trade secretary, did not deny a BBC report that Labour had been shaken by the number of Leave voters willing to switch to the Tories and that the party would change tack to address the problem.

The party is planning to give a higher profile to Leave-inclined Labour MPs, including party chair Ian Lavery, while more activists would be moved to areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016.

The party's promise to negotiate a better Brexit deal and then put it to a referendum would also be highlighted to reassure Leave supporters that Labour wanted to make any exit deal more "jobs friendly".

Labour has struggled badly on Brexit in this election: its promise to negotiate a new Brexit deal and then put in to a referendum with Remain on the ballot paper is seen by many voters as fence-sitting.

Jeremy Corbyn's decision to remain neutral in any future referendum has suggested that Labour has no clear policy on Brexit, while Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" has worked well on the doorstep.

Mr Gardiner, speaking on Radio 4's Today programme, said he was unaware of the change of strategy but Labour officials would only say that not all aspects of the BBC report were correct.

"We want to keep on - as we have been doing - narrowing the margin in the polls," Mr Gardiner said. "I obviously want to make sure we appeal to all sections of the population on Brexit. We are the only party trying to unite the party, not go off to one extreme or the other."

But the YouGov poll in the Times suggested that Labour would lose 51 seats at the election and return only 211 MPs, its second worst defeat since the Second World War.

[seafoid]

When the election was called a hung Parliament was deemed most likely. The UK is polarised and a mess.
What would justify a Tory win by 40 seats ? I can't see anything that would.

In other news, what are the odds of the DUP losing all their seats in Belfast ?

[Rossfan]

Best "we" can hope for is they'll lose 2.
I see talks on restoring Stormont to start on 16th Dec. Any substance in them or just window dressing?

[imtommygunn]

When the election was called a hung Parliament was deemed most likely. The UK is polarised and a mess.
What would justify a Tory win by 40 seats ? I can't see anything that would.

In other news, what are the odds of the DUP losing all their seats in Belfast ?

There is a *slim* chance.

North Belfast will be reasonably close but I would still expect Dodds to get it and likewise with the East and Gavin Robinson. Pengelly you would hope is gone but I wouldn't be too sure until it actually happens.

[screenexile]

When the election was called a hung Parliament was deemed most likely. The UK is polarised and a mess.
What would justify a Tory win by 40 seats ? I can't see anything that would.

In other news, what are the odds of the DUP losing all their seats in Belfast ?

There is a *slim* chance.

North Belfast will be reasonably close but I would still expect Dodds to get it and likewise with the East and Gavin Robinson. Pengelly you would hope is gone but I wouldn't be too sure until it actually happens.

Unless something seismic happens they'll keep everything except South Belfast then pick up North Down and still have 10.

Good chance Sinn Fein will lose Foyle and will be one seat down. . . not that it particularly matters!

[Franko]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

It's frankly not.

[sid waddell]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

It's frankly not.

The anti-Semitism thing is bollocks, it's a shameless and deliberate smear campaign which isn't about anti-Semitism at all but about Israel.

There is anti-Semitism in the Labour party, and any anti-Semtism is too much, but there is certainly no more than in any other political party and no more than in any other walk of life.

If any of this was about anti-Semitism, it would not be targetting a particular political party because it cuts across politics and indeed comes in much greater numbers from the right, as does Islamophobia.

The narrative that has been spun by the media about Labour being a uniquely anti-Semitic party is pure bullshit.

It's textbook political smearing of the Karl Rove Swift Boat type times 50.

[magpie seanie]

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/writingfromtheedge/2019/11/as-a-british-jew-im-not-fearful-of-a-corbyn-government-but-im-horrified-at-how-antisemitism-is-being-used-against-him/

Gallsman and others who buy into this rubbish - have a read of this. It explains in great detail what the factual position is - very hard to contest any of it. The anti-semitism reported (and dealt with might I add) in the Labour party is below that of regular society. It's all a political strategy and it's quite vile and disgusting and undermines combating real anti-semitism.

[Kidder81]

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/writingfromtheedge/2019/11/as-a-british-jew-im-not-fearful-of-a-corbyn-government-but-im-horrified-at-how-antisemitism-is-being-used-against-him/

Gallsman and others who buy into this rubbish - have a read of this. It explains in great detail what the factual position is - very hard to contest any of it. The anti-semitism reported (and dealt with might I add) in the Labour party is below that of regular society. It's all a political strategy and it's quite vile and disgusting and undermines combating real anti-semitism.

Trawling the internet to clutch a straw to back up your position 

You would be here all day posting links with the opposite viewpoint from Jews

And you are holding someone that wants to be PM to the same standard as "regular society", have heard it all.

[yellowcard]

When the election was called a hung Parliament was deemed most likely. The UK is polarised and a mess.
What would justify a Tory win by 40 seats ? I can't see anything that would.

In other news, what are the odds of the DUP losing all their seats in Belfast ?

There is a *slim* chance.

North Belfast will be reasonably close but I would still expect Dodds to get it and likewise with the East and Gavin Robinson. Pengelly you would hope is gone but I wouldn't be too sure until it actually happens.

Pengelly is a goner. Eastwood will replace McCallion and DUP will pick up North Down. SF should retain Fermanagh/ST. Which leaves North Down between Dodds and Finucane as the closest to call. The relentless attacks on Finucane have probably damaged him and may help Dodds over the line or who knows maybe the public will see them for what they are, smear tactics. I still think that this seat could go either way. So all things being equal it will be DUP or SF down 1 seat and with Sylvia Hermon stepping down that should leave the SDLP gaining 2 seats. 

[seafoid]

Martin wolf of the FT on the Tories

"The Tories have provided dreadful government, from post-crisis fiscal austerity at the expense of the vulnerable, to the idiocy of Brexit. The economy's performance has been dire, above all, on productivity."

Israel started losing on social media around 2014. There aren't enough Zionists to win global arguments. Previously media was kept manageable  by media gatekeepers like Wolf Blitzer. Social media broke that model.
In 2015 or so the IHRA definition of antisemitism was broadened to include anti Zionism. Anyone who supports Palestinian rights is an anti Semite by the IHRA definition.
Corbyn supports Palestinian rights. So do a lot of Brits. They are all anti Semites under the IHRA definition.

The whole thing is a joke.   

[gallsman]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

It's frankly not.

Go on then, tell me who's orchestrating this systematic smear campaign. I know Seafoid thinks its all the fault of the Jews (when he's not talking about Scarlett Johansson purifying herself of her menstrual impurities in her personal mikvah) but if you're going to claim that there's a systematic smear campaign, you'd better be able to provide evidence of who's behind it. The Tories? The BBC? The Guardian?

The shrieking on all sides about bias and impartiality in the media is rendering political debate all but irrelevant in this day and age. On the one side you have the likes of that pillock Bastani bleating on about Corbyn hitting Andrew Neil for six when the country was laughing at him or demand that the BBC explain themselves for how they edited a clip from newsnight to share on Twitter. Then you have the other side trying to claim that posing as a fact checking organisation wasn't confusing or nefarious or that 6 actually equals 40.

If everyone could take a step back and stop howling at the top of their voices, maybe we could actually talk about the issues at hand.

On the Corbyn front, what a lot of people can't see or refuse to see is that people have a right to be uneasy about his approach to antisemitism. You don't get to tell one Jew who is very worried about his prospects under Corbyn's Britain "What's your problem, here's another Jew who is ok with it. This Jew says there's no problem with anti-Semitism, so there you go"

Corbyn is the leader of a party that has been the political home of the majority of Britain's Jews for generations. The fact that he has failed to sort the issue, whether or not he is personally an anti-Semite (I don't for a second believe he is, although he has shown himself to be ignorant or, at best, blissfully unaware of what can constitute antisemitism) is damning enough in its own right for many of them.

Given ten years of Tory government and the complete shambles that is Brexit, a Labour victory should have been a cakewalk in such an election. The reason it isn't is that Corbyn and his cadre are either incompetent, or are perceived to be. Not because the Jewish-run BBC guardian reading daily telegraph buying rich not enemies of the people have conducted a smear campaign against him.

[seafoid]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

It's frankly not.

Go on then, tell me who's orchestrating this systematic smear campaign. I know Seafoid thinks its all the fault of the Jews (when he's not talking about Scarlett Johansson purifying herself of her menstrual impurities in her personal mikvah) but if you're going to claim that there's a systematic smear campaign, you'd better be able to provide evidence of who's behind it. The Tories? The BBC? The Guardian?

The shrieking on all sides about bias and impartiality in the media is rendering political debate all but irrelevant in this day and age. On the one side you have the likes of that pillock Bastani bleating on about Corbyn hitting Andrew Neil for six when the country was laughing at him or demand that the BBC explain themselves for how they edited a clip from newsnight to share on Twitter. Then you have the other side trying to claim that posing as a fact checking organisation wasn't confusing or nefarious or that 6 actually equals 40.

If everyone could take a step back and stop howling at the top of their voices, maybe we could actually talk about the issues at hand.

On the Corbyn front, what a lot of people can't see or refuse to see is that people have a right to be uneasy about his approach to antisemitism. You don't get to tell one Jew who is very worried about his prospects under Corbyn's Britain "What's your problem, here's another Jew who is ok with it. This Jew says there's no problem with anti-Semitism, so there you go"

Corbyn is the leader of a party that has been the political home of the majority of Britain's Jews for generations. The fact that he has failed to sort the issue, whether or not he is personally an anti-Semite (I don't for a second believe he is, although he has shown himself to be ignorant or, at best, blissfully unaware of what can constitute antisemitism) is damning enough in its own right for many of them.

I think it's driven by the Israeli embassy and the Board of Deputies on one hand. It's a Zionist project and that will tend to involve some Jews.
Why are they involved?  Because they are afraid of regime change. The Tories have always supported Israel politically. Labour probably wouldn't. Israel is afraid of changes that would impact the Occupation.

Corbyn has other enemies such as the neoliberals who benefit from business as usual, on the other hand.  The owners of the right wing newspapers would be an example. Why are they involved? Because they don't want things to change. Media gatekeepers like Peston have their own reasons.

It's much bigger than a Jewish thing.