Elections North and South

Started by Farrandeelin, April 18, 2019, 04:09:48 PM

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mrdeeds

Quote from: trailer on May 25, 2019, 03:59:09 PM
Looks like a poor enough election in the South for SF if the exit polls are accurate.

Might have no councillors in Cavan.

Tony Baloney

Quote from: trailer on May 25, 2019, 04:00:50 PM
Quote from: Owen Brannigan on May 25, 2019, 03:57:38 PM
From the Electoral Office.

European Parliamentary Election - Thursday 23 May 2019

Turnout figures

Electoral Region   
Eligible Electorate: 1,278,951   
Votes Polled: 577,275
Turnout (%): 45.14

Quota = (577,275 / (3 +1)) + 1 = 144320

Low turnout aided by issues in getting postal and proxy votes because the deadline for application was too early for many people.

It will be interesting to see which parts of the electorate stayed at home.

Were UUP voters left with little motivation by Danny Kennedy's lack lustre approach?

Have the non-aligned parties moved on while others have not managed to get their vote out?

Have republicans and nationalists lost ground in their efforts to provide evidence that there is a demand for a border poll?

Be interesting to see which parties / constituencies are affected by this.
:-X I could take a stab at it

Rossfan

Quote from: trailer on May 25, 2019, 03:59:09 PM
Looks like a poor enough election in the South for SF if the exit polls are accurate.
It was a shit election for SF a lot of it due to a bad leader.
Pearse Doherty was the choice they should have made.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

andoireabu

Question about transfers. How do the extra votes get transferred when someone hits the quota? I know they go to the person with the no. 2 on the paper but is it down to pot luck which votes are the 'extra' votes? Say i voted no. 1 for candidate A and no. 2 for candidate B and the person after me votes no.1 for A and no. 2 for C. If my vote is the one that gets A to the quota then the second voter has their vote transferred to C. However if the 2nd voters vote is the one that makes the quota then my vote gets transferred to B. Or am I away off the mark completely?
Private Cowboy: Don't shit me, man!
Private Joker: I wouldn't shit you. You're my favorite turd!

Shamrock Shore

Sinn Fein are on the way down and there is no floor visible.

Mary Lou and yer wan up North are very weak electorally.

Greens will enjoy their bounce - and while it is only local councils - they will still find that enthusiasm and re-usable coffee cups will only get them so far around the council chamber. 


RedHand88

Quote from: andoireabu on May 26, 2019, 09:19:04 AM
Question about transfers. How do the extra votes get transferred when someone hits the quota? I know they go to the person with the no. 2 on the paper but is it down to pot luck which votes are the 'extra' votes? Say i voted no. 1 for candidate A and no. 2 for candidate B and the person after me votes no.1 for A and no. 2 for C. If my vote is the one that gets A to the quota then the second voter has their vote transferred to C. However if the 2nd voters vote is the one that makes the quota then my vote gets transferred to B. Or am I away off the mark completely?

In some systems it's like that yes.
But here (north anyway, and I'm nearly sure south too), they transfer down the votes as a proportion. The breakdown of 2s will be applied to the surplus and distributed. So say for example the quota is 8000 and I get 10000 first preferences. 5000 of my first preferences (half) had candidate B as a 2. In this case 1000 votes will transfer down as it's half the surplus if that makes sense.
If 2500 of my votes had candidate C as a 2, then 500 votes would be transferred.

armaghniac

In the North they distribute the votes as a proportion, in the South they take the required number from different boxes.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

macdanger2

Quote from: armaghniac on May 26, 2019, 09:45:05 AM
In the North they distribute the votes as a proportion, in the South they take the required number from different boxes.

In the local elections, they recount the entire amount of ballots and distribute them pro rata - at least that's what they said on the radio last night

Farrandeelin

Quote from: Shamrock Shore on May 26, 2019, 09:41:10 AM
Sinn Fein are on the way down and there is no floor visible.

Mary Lou and yer wan up North are very weak electorally.

Greens will enjoy their bounce - and while it is only local councils - they will still find that enthusiasm and re-usable coffee cups will only get them so far around the council chamber.

Yes. SF's plan for power in the 26 not materialising. Not one bit surprised as I don't likr Mary Lou at all. FF back again it seems on local elections anyway.
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

manfromdelmonte

Quote from: Shamrock Shore on May 26, 2019, 09:41:10 AM
Sinn Fein are on the way down and there is no floor visible.

Mary Lou and yer wan up North are very weak electorally.

Greens will enjoy their bounce - and while it is only local councils - they will still find that enthusiasm and re-usable coffee cups will only get them so far around the council chamber.
Maybe
But we're 10 years and more behind the rest of europe on the environment and climate change

marty34

Quote from: Farrandeelin on May 26, 2019, 11:25:43 AM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on May 26, 2019, 09:41:10 AM
Sinn Fein are on the way down and there is no floor visible.

Mary Lou and yer wan up North are very weak electorally.

Greens will enjoy their bounce - and while it is only local councils - they will still find that enthusiasm and re-usable coffee cups will only get them so far around the council chamber.

Yes. SF's plan for power in the 26 not materialising. Not one bit surprised as I don't likr Mary Lou at all. FF back again it seems on local elections anyway.

True, they'll have to take stock and review.  All the clamour to get Adams out and  put someone more 'softer'  in charge has failed.

Presidential election was poor and Thursday was very poor.  Where do SF go from here in south? 

Some amount of independents in some of the ballot papers - are mainstream parties not concentrating on local issues?

Hound

Opportunity for the Greens and Labour to join forces as a real left force and can differntiate themselves from the looney left.

Rossfan

In the 26 if you had a surplus in Count 1 they divide all the votes and distribute the surplus pro rata.
In subsequent counts it's a "random sample" ,in practice you simply take the required no of ballot papers off the top of the bundle.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

trailer

SF are a very left, Marxist/ Communist party. Protest vote at best. They've found their level.

trailer

Can Mary Lou survive this disastrous election? 12 points down in Dublin! 9 in Cork! Talk that they may not hold any of the MEP seats! The nutting squad will be looking for her head I'd suspect!