Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[Rossfan]

Can Apples point out how education would suffer in a UI?
Or welfare seeing as 26 Co rates are much higher than 6 Cos rates??
As for another election. .... boycott it.

[north_antrim_hound]

Is there any seat when the SDLP and SF could combine to lose the DUP a seat?

They didn't do it in Fermanagh South Tyrone for General election they won't do it now. And rightly so, they stand on very different platforms.

They have done it in FST in the past eg 1970 , 74, 81. SF are v close to 30 which is the magic number and DUP minus 1 or 2 would mean they couldn't get the veto. Unionists have no hassle voting tactically.

You can expect dormant unionist to come out this time and UUP to transfer or not even run in places
Only saving grace might be that the Rottweiler will have to repeat the anti nationalist mood to motivate them therefore getting nationalist ill feeling back up
I would expect them to regain POC

[vallankumous]

They have done it in FST in the past eg 1970 , 74, 81. SF are v close to 30 which is the magic number and DUP minus 1 or 2 would mean they couldn't get the veto. Unionists have no hassle voting tactically.

They didn't do it in 1981.
Bobby Sands stood as an anti H Block candidate not a SF candidate.

[Jim_Murphy_74]

Is Brokenshire offering another election to help out his mates in the DUP?  Could be worth £5m of our money to him and the DUP?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-39218555

Depends if there's enough time for a DUP/UUP pact!  I can't see another election solving much...Prods turn out to regain supremacy, Taigs turn out as they're in with a sniff of being in the driving seat.  As you were?  If there's no agreement after that, is there a 3rd election??

Brokenshire comes across as a little Englander knobend who knows nor cares anything about this place, but its a cabinet post to further his career.

Arlene has done a few interviews where she has hinted that DUP might nominate someone else as FM.  I think she is playing a game of bluff here.   She is banking on Brokenshire and Shinners not coming to an agreement on legacy inquiries, the thing breaking down and going into fresh election saying she offered to stand aside but it wasn't enough for the crocodile.   

/Jim.

[seafoid]

They have done it in FST in the past eg 1970 , 74, 81. SF are v close to 30 which is the magic number and DUP minus 1 or 2 would mean they couldn't get the veto. Unionists have no hassle voting tactically.

They didn't do it in 1981.
Bobby Sands stood as an anti H Block candidate not a SF candidate.

There was no nationalist competition which is the reason unionists win the seat

[vallankumous]

Arlene has done a few interviews where she has hinted that DUP might nominate someone else as FM.  I think she is playing a game of bluff here.   She is banking on Brokenshire and Shinners not coming to an agreement on legacy inquiries, the thing breaking down and going into fresh election saying she offered to stand aside but it wasn't enough for the crocodile.   

/Jim.

She has an easy way out if she would take it. There is already precedent set. She should run for the Dail and remain as leader of the DUP.
Enda Kenny is not going to run in the next election so there's a massive Unionist vote in mayo for her to step in and soak up. If he gets a big Job in Europe he'll resign as TD and she could step in for the by-election.

[LCohen]

There are multiple unionist parties because there are  multiple strands of unionism. Even the current suite of parties are themselves coalitions (apart from TUV which only comes in one form). Within the UUP vote there are people who could not vote for the DUP brand, or could cosy up to the Simon Hamilton side of the party but not the Edwin  Poots side. Alliance would be a big recipient of votes if politicians polarise non-sectarian unionism

[north_antrim_hound]

There are multiple unionist parties because there are  multiple strands of unionism. Even the current suite of parties are themselves coalitions (apart from TUV which only comes in one form). Within the UUP vote there are people who could not vote for the DUP brand, or could cosy up to the Simon Hamilton side of the party but not the Edwin  Poots side. Alliance would be a big recipient of votes if politicians polarise non-sectarian unionism

The last 100 odd years of voting would suggest otherwise
Stop applying logic when it comes to unionism

[theskull1]

Dead cert that the DUP want to rev up the polarising politics to blind/scare the stupid masses, let the talks fail and go for fresh elections. Personally think too much of SF's language has been too heavy handed and fairly self indulgent and is playing into the DUP's plans.   

[armaghniac]

Is there any seat when the SDLP and SF could combine to lose the DUP a seat?

They didn't do it in Fermanagh South Tyrone for General election they won't do it now. And rightly so, they stand on very different platforms.

They have done it in FST in the past eg 1970 , 74, 81. SF are v close to 30 which is the magic number and DUP minus 1 or 2 would mean they couldn't get the veto. Unionists have no hassle voting tactically.

You can expect dormant unionist to come out this time and UUP to transfer or not even run in places
Only saving grace might be that the Rottweiler will have to repeat the anti nationalist mood to motivate them therefore getting nationalist ill feeling back up
I would expect them to regain POC

I think Brexit gives nationalists a reason to vote even if the DUP were more accommodating, you only have to look at Scotland where people are p***d off with London and Brexit will be several orders of magnitude more insulting in NI.

[LCohen]

There are multiple unionist parties because there are  multiple strands of unionism. Even the current suite of parties are themselves coalitions (apart from TUV which only comes in one form). Within the UUP vote there are people who could not vote for the DUP brand, or could cosy up to the Simon Hamilton side of the party but not the Edwin  Poots side. Alliance would be a big recipient of votes if politicians polarise non-sectarian unionism

The last 100 odd years of voting would suggest otherwise
Stop applying logic when it comes to unionism

Are you saying everyone in Northern Ireland is sectarian or just the ones who disagree with you on a united ireland?

I would vote to remain in U.K. So would the wife. Are we sectarian?

[LCohen]

Dead cert that the DUP want to rev up the polarising politics to blind/scare the stupid masses, let the talks fail and go for fresh elections. Personally think too much of SF's language has been too heavy handed and fairly self indulgent and is playing into the DUP's plans.

There is undeniably a desire on the part of DUP and SF to wipe out UUP and SDLP respectively. And they each sense blood

[north_antrim_hound]

There are multiple unionist parties because there are  multiple strands of unionism. Even the current suite of parties are themselves coalitions (apart from TUV which only comes in one form). Within the UUP vote there are people who could not vote for the DUP brand, or could cosy up to the Simon Hamilton side of the party but not the Edwin  Poots side. Alliance would be a big recipient of votes if politicians polarise non-sectarian unionism

The last 100 odd years of voting would suggest otherwise
Stop applying logic when it comes to unionism

Are you saying everyone in Northern Ireland is sectarian or just the ones who disagree with you on a united ireland?

I would vote to remain in U.K. So would the wife. Are we sectarian?
[/quote

My reply to your post didn't refer to sectarianism or the UI agenda so why are you bringing that up
Your post was in relation to the subject of different strains of unionism and they are to polerised now to implement a collective voting strategy
My reply was to suggest that when it came to keeping the nationalist representation in office in a minority the unionist always collaborated regardless of their unionist ideology 
How you can deduce that I implied everyone in N Ireland is sectarian is beyond me
You and your good wife has every right to vote to remain in the UK and it doesn't make you sectarian
But it does make you a unionist ( you certainly have the confrontational gene )which is your choice
And I respect your right to vote that way

[north_antrim_hound]

Dead cert that the DUP want to rev up the polarising politics to blind/scare the stupid masses, let the talks fail and go for fresh elections. Personally think too much of SF's language has been too heavy handed and fairly self indulgent and is playing into the DUP's plans.

Agreed the only agenda was the Arlene not stepping down and the Irish language act
This legacy business should do for another time

[naka]

Dead cert that the DUP want to rev up the polarising politics to blind/scare the stupid masses, let the talks fail and go for fresh elections. Personally think too much of SF's language has been too heavy handed and fairly self indulgent and is playing into the DUP's plans.

There is undeniably a desire on the part of DUP and SF to wipe out UUP and SDLP respectively. And they each sense blood

actually think that SF should not have pushed the end of unionist domination point, subtly they should have pushed shared future, working together etc
then appeal to sdlp supporters that they need a bigger mandate to push the equality points etc

the way it is going they are now portrayed as the boogeyman and its playing into the united unionism hands
if we don't stick together you will be frog marched into a united Ireland