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No team news from Derry  - is that usual?

The week before an Ulster Final? Very usual.

I can't understand why some people believe Derry will be set up defensively on Sunday. John Brennan hasn't put a defensive-minded side out at any stage this year, so it's hard to fathom why he would do so against a team that really only contains two scoring forwards.

People seem to have got it into their heads that Armagh are playing some sort of new attacking style of football. I don't believe this to be the case, I think it was something they stumbled across against Down. Down's forward line was totally ineffective, and the expertise of Armagh's defenders enabled them to get the ball in hand and set up attacks relatively quickly with Down on the back foot.

Padden and Mackin certainly weren't on the field for their scoring ability, and that half-forward line will struggle to score six points again for the whole remainder of the season. 

Anyway, the Down Armagh game is irrelevant. If you want a barometer then a closer one is probably last year's preliminary game. Armagh won by three points, while Derry missed a late penalty and had Eoin Bradley harshly sent off. In other words there was very little between the teams. In fact, I thought Armagh were a poor enough outfit as Monaghan confirmed a few weeks later. I don't think they've changed that much to be honest.

The only problem from a Derry perspective is that we're worse! And we're missing Fergal Doherty/Paddy Bradley/Gerard O'Kane. Arguably our three best/most effective players.

I expect Armagh to lean heavily on their defence. It's easily their strongest area, and Brendan Donaghy is an excellent full-back. So, Derry's attacking approach may not necessarily reap dividends and the packed defence is something we've always struggled with. Between Clarke, McDonnell, and maybe Aaron Kernan, Armagh should get enough scores to win the game.

Armagh aren't great, but all-round they're better than this Derry team.

Don't agree with those odds at all.

We have lost our best defender and best forward to injury (Gerard O'Kane and Paddy B) and our best midfielder (Fergal Doherty) can't commit this year.

Throw in our semi-final record against Armaghs, the strength of our quarter final victory against Armaghs, and those odds are miserly for a Derry punt.

The one hope clung to is this mystical 'Brennan Factor'. I will be very surprised if we turn Armagh over (not shocked though)

2/1 for Derry would be more like it.

Again to get the record straight. Brennan has never once spoken directly either by phone or in a one-one to Fergal Doherty about being invovled with the county team this year and that my friend is a fact.

Well let's break this down a little further then. Why would John Brennan not approach Fergal Doc, knowing full well how key a member of the team he is/was, and knowing that this would leave us seriously thin in the midfield area?

Why would he do that?

correct me if I'm wrong but did Armagh not play all their home Championship games there while the Athletic Grounds was being redeveloped??

You are wrong.

Well, surely it is true that Clones was Armagh's designated "home" venue over the last 15 years in the Ulster championship? And the only reason why last year's game against Monaghan was in Casement is because Armagh didn't want to play their own home game in Monaghan.

Omagh would have been more than capable of holding this game, even if it only holds 18k. Derry v Fermanagh: 6k, Armagh v Down: 13k, Tyrone v Monaghan: 10k. There'll be no more than 15k at it.

Venue choice probably won't have much bearing on the game itself as Derry have a bad record everywhere. But this decision is certainly a huge disadvantage to Derry fans and that's the issue here.

The problem with Sidebottom is that he never actually stops talking during a game. When commentating on an attack he thinks it is necessary to speak out every single pass/run/block/tackle/shot that is happening.

It sounds like one long sentence, and he doesn't take any breaths in between. I was always under the impression that TV commentators should say as little as possible as the pictures generally do the talking.

[the front page of today's edition had Eoin Bradley 'Ulster's top forward' in it]

I see he was mentioning Henry Shefflin the James Stephens player in yesterdays paper.  You don't know what to expect from the Irish News these days, sure the front page of today's edition had Eoin Bradley 'Ulster's top forward' in it.

Maybe he thinks he'll annoy the uber-precious Tyrone fans.
You've proven him correct.

I personally don't see this one being too tight a contest. People always talk about Kerry being vulnerable at the quarter-final stage, but their record suggests that this opinion couldn't be further from the truth. They've played 10, won 9 and drawn 1. And they've tallied up some serious scores in those victories (27 points last year against Dublin). Monaghan came close to them three years ago, but Down are nowhere near Monaghan's level of intensity, workrate and suffocation success.

This is a poor Down defence. They failed to pressurise Tyrone off the ball in Casement Park - with the likes of Dooher and McGuigan afforded oceans of time in possession. Have they improved significantly enough since then to rectify this against the most fluent attacking force in the country? Probably not.

For Kerry, the loss of Galvin is not a problem - they are well used to having him suspended. The loss of Tomas O Se is not a problem - O'Mahony is a capable replacement, well fit for either Hughes or McComiskey. I expect the Kerry to rack up close to 20 points. At midfield, Scanlon and Quirke will more than hold their own. Not household names, but they are workers and have come out on top against better midfield's than Down's. Down need Gordon in here. It will be more important for them to win primary possession than use their best fielder at full-back. Kerry have many more options in the forwards than just Donaghy.

Down's obvious strength is in their forward line, but I can't see them having enough of the ball, or enough composure on the ball to hit the necessary scores. They'll have to try and compensate at the back also by bringing extra men back. Martin Clarke and Coulter provide a big threat but they might be fighting a losing battle. Has Clarke played as a sweeper between HB/MF in recent games? This is probably his best role against Kerry, as Down will need to make decent use of their possession, but it would take away from their scoring ability.

Kerry by 7 or 8 points.

Very difficult game to call this one, but having seen both teams in action last weekend, you would have to say Kildare are probably worthy favourites. The problem with Ulster teams is that they generally have to peak too early in the season (only teams with big squads like Tyrone have been able to remain fairly consistent all the way through, but not always) and Monaghan appear to have done this against Armagh a number of weeks back. They hit a brick wall at Clones on Sunday and must be very difficult for them to get back on track. Especially without Vinny Corey and JP Mone - who was probably their best player last week (are these guys def out?). The defence looks much weaker now, and the goalkeeping problems don't help.

Another worry for Monaghan is that they are totally unproven against teams from outside Ulster. Their only victory against non-Ulster opposition in 5 seasons (and there have been few enough games I know) came against Wicklow I think in 2006. Two league victories this year came against Tyrone and Derry.

Kildare look more settled. There's a decent shape and structure to their play and with players like Doyle, Callaghan and Earley bang in form they pose a serious challenge. They've re-jigged their defence since the Louth defeat and the right-back Kelly(?) was excellent against Eoin Bradley last weekend. I'd expect him to pick up Freeman.

I was impressed last week with how fit Kildare looked - physically and mentally. And they were bringing guys off the bench that didn't weaken them. McGeeney looks like he's prepared his side for this point of the season. They came very close to beating Tyrone last year, so they're not far away. They'd fancy another crack at them.

Kildare by 3 points.

I always feel he says too much whenever he's commentating. For a couple of minutes yesterday he was flat out, barely without a breath. You're not commentating on radio Mark!

[but for me it sends out the wrong message to the other defenders on the panel who have been training away all year]

yeah he was dropped which is why he didnt travel. fair enough i would say most would have done the same in his position...
honestly don't see why sml has been brought back for this game- no harm to him he has been a great servant for Derry but for me it sends out the wrong message to the other defenders on the panel who have been training away all year...i don't think sml will start but think he will play some part esp if the fb line are being bombarded with highballs like last saturday!
shouldn't be much between the two teams but hopefully home advantage should help secure victory

I think that's part of the problem - who are the other defenders on the panel? Maybe Ciaran Mullan, but apart from that - Michael McGoldrick is injured, Kevin McCloy left the panel due to injury, Niall McCusker injured long-term.

I think it's a wise decision from Cassidy. No point in us saying after a defeat "sure why did he not bring any more defenders in??". He has been pro-active in this instance and hopefully it pays off.

What about passing/shooting off your weaker foot?

I would say the problem with a lot of Intercounty Coaches, potential Intercounty Coaches or Senior Club coaches etc. is that they feel they probably know everything already, and think they shouldn't have to attend such an event!

[When Germany have come up against reasonably well organised sides they have struggled - Serbia and Ghana.]

I think we'll see a Spain victory tonight.

By and large, the success of Germany in their last two games has been based on the openness of the opposition's midfield. Spain are much better organised defensively, and the likes of Ozil will get bottled up by Alonso and Busquets. They will miss Mueller in this regard also. The like of Cacau for example just isn't in the same class.

When Germany have come up against reasonably well organised sides they have struggled - Serbia and Ghana. Despite playing quite well in these games - dominating possession, they weren't able to deploy their counter-attacking game, and couldn't display the potency that was key to the wins against England and Argentina.

Spain have stuttered their way to the semis, but they're there. And how many times have we seen teams struggle early in tournaments before sparking into life at the semis/final stage? Spain have yet to play really well, but i expect to see it tonight. They have the greater experience, and the belief from Euro 2008. It may not be enough just yet to carry them to the title, but it should take them to the final.

I take your point but against Serbia Podolski missed three great chances and a penalty and Khedira hit the bar all with 10 men.

I agree with you there, and that's why i said they played quite well in that game. But the confidence wasn't there, and they looked nervous - because they weren't able to carry out their natural gameplan.

I think we'll see a Spain victory tonight.

By and large, the success of Germany in their last two games has been based on the openness of the opposition's midfield. Spain are much better organised defensively, and the likes of Ozil will get bottled up by Alonso and Busquets. They will miss Mueller in this regard also. The like of Cacau for example just isn't in the same class.

When Germany have come up against reasonably well organised sides they have struggled - Serbia and Ghana. Despite playing quite well in these games - dominating possession, they weren't able to deploy their counter-attacking game, and couldn't display the potency that was key to the wins against England and Argentina.

Spain have stuttered their way to the semis, but they're there. And how many times have we seen teams struggle early in tournaments before sparking into life at the semis/final stage? Spain have yet to play really well, but i expect to see it tonight. They have the greater experience, and the belief from Euro 2008. It may not be enough just yet to carry them to the title, but it should take them to the final.

Saturday 26 June: Carlow v Derry (Dr Cullen Park, 1700 BST)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/northern_ireland/gaelic_games/8737968.stm

Ignore the BBC article when it says July (throughout the article).

Brown deserves everything he gets - most odious tr**p in the league. Gerrard should have hit him properly if he's gonna get a three match ban for it anyway.