China Coronavirus

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

what about the risk of workers in supermarkets,etc that are infected (maybe not that sick) but don't self isolate (or refuse to) because they will only get ssp for the time they are off? this is bound to be happening in some businesses 

[LeoMc]

We don't have just 11,600 cases in the UK at present. Nowhere near.

Ach, I know that!

Its the serious cases that also should have ramped up earlier based on Oxford. We can compare across those as they won't have gone undiagnosed.

The ratio of mild to serious is more or less consistent - perhaps even tending toward a lower proportion of cases being serious as a virus tends to mutate to a more benign form.

Oxford was a theory based on an untested model. They developed a theory and are now looking for evidence to back it up. Ar5e about face. Look at evidence then formulate a theory.

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible.

[OgraAnDun]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

If 50% of the U.K. has been infected since January, why are there no clusters like this in the U.K.? Horrifying scenes.

[delgany]

There is a cluster in the west Midlands, in the Sikh and Muslim elders communities around wolverhampton. They have issues with social isolating

[armaghniac]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

If 50% of the U.K. has been infected since January, why are there no clusters like this in the U.K.? Horrifying scenes.

Sadly, in recent days it has been just as bad  in Madrid.

[imtommygunn]

London could well be heading that way too

[armaghniac]

London could well be heading that way too

and also New York.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Too many factors could be responsible for the lack of increases in hospitalisations so far.

Sorry, but I consider that sentence a cop out. There could be something fundamentally different about it in the UK, but there is nothing to support that.

Based on what is known about COVID-19 at the moment:
- GPs sending people home would stop when the people they sent home start dying of pneumonia in significant numbers. Furthermore, post mortems would have been carried out as a matter of urgency given the awareness of COVID-19 in Wuhan at the middle of January.

- Climate will affect spread - but won't really affect severity*. Its the severity coupled to spread that does not make sense in the Oxford model. Furthermore, reduced spread would be contrary to what Oxford are claiming.

- Again, an explosion of cases due to a mass gathering won't affect severity. Perhaps there is a more benign form of it running around parts of the UK, but there is no basis for that based on evidence elsewhere. At the moment that little more than unfounded speculation.


*exceptions for hay fever etc, but we aren't at that stage of the year yet.

[johnnycool]

London could well be heading that way too

and also New York.

The brother tested positive for CV-19 in NYC.

Went down to his GP's as normal, he'd pneumonia as well.

Sent home to self isolate and a few meds.

Rang his boss to tell him he'd tested positive for it whilst working in Manhattan on a floor with 100 other lads (construction) and the boss told him none of the others have complained so business as usual.....

[imtommygunn]

That is borderline criminal negligence. Every one of them will go home spread etc as people know. It is attitudes like that that have and will continue to make this thing as bad as it is.

[Taylor]

Given the UK have buried the heads in the sand and wont test surely the best way to look at models/how serious it is is to look at deaths per population (ie 2 per million etc).

Naturally it depends at what stage it is at but this would be a more realistic version of where countries are at

[johnnycool]

That is borderline criminal negligence. Every one of them will go home spread etc as people know. It is attitudes like that that have and will continue to make this thing as bad as it is.

But it seems it's an all too common mindset both sides of the pond!

It'll be too late once the ICU's are at breaking point.

[J70]

London could well be heading that way too

and also New York.

The brother tested positive for CV-19 in NYC.

Went down to his GP's as normal, he'd pneumonia as well.

Sent home to self isolate and a few meds.

Rang his boss to tell him he'd tested positive for it whilst working in Manhattan on a floor with 100 other lads (construction) and the boss told him none of the others have complained so business as usual.....

Construction is going full steam ahead in NYC.

Its crazy, and many of the lads involved are obviously not too happy.

Hope your brother comes through ok. The hospitals here are getting very dicey.

[Solo_run]

Too many factors could be responsible for the lack of increases in hospitalisations so far.

Sorry, but I consider that sentence a cop out. There could be something fundamentally different about it in the UK, but there is nothing to support that.

Based on what is known about COVID-19 at the moment:
- GPs sending people home would stop when the people they sent home start dying of pneumonia in significant numbers. Furthermore, post mortems would have been carried out as a matter of urgency given the awareness of COVID-19 in Wuhan at the middle of January.

- Climate will affect spread - but won't really affect severity*. Its the severity coupled to spread that does not make sense in the Oxford model. Furthermore, reduced spread would be contrary to what Oxford are claiming.

- Again, an explosion of cases due to a mass gathering won't affect severity. Perhaps there is a more benign form of it running around parts of the UK, but there is no basis for that based on evidence elsewhere. At the moment that little more than unfounded speculation.


*exceptions for hay fever etc, but we aren't at that stage of the year yet.

If you have ever done research you will know that it is impossible to account for all factors, especially at this time when there's more emphasis on controlling it. It's not as simple as looking at relationships such as the hotter it is the more ice creams are bought.

Genetics, culture, underlying conditions, virus mutation, immunity, age, gender, exposure to the virus, social distancing, travelling, diet, medication, air quality, lifestyle, pregnancy.... These are all factors that are to be considered. Why? Because the virus is new and nothing is known about it. Something as trivial as taking ibuprofen has been implicated in complications of Coronavirus and undoubtedly there will be more.

With regards to GPs sending patients home - this would have happened before the awareness of the virus. Deaths that have occurred before the outbreak could have been contributed to Pneumonia complications as a result of influenza. Dying from the flu most people wouldn't think twice about it, it happens. We won't know if this was in society before the first reported cases it shortly after because it wouldn't be an appropriate use of resources testing dead people. Germany aren't testing dead people for the virus and are instead using them on people who are alive which is probably why they have so few reported deaths considering they have +30k diagnosed. That may change soon.

On another note how many people do you think have died of Flu in the last few weeks? I bet there have been quite a few. I fully support lockdown being implemented because not a lot is known about CV at present and people should be worried yet remain calm. The only thing you can do is what has been suggested.

There have already been two strains of Coronavirus confirmed worldwide. Perhaps we are experiencing the less severe strain. In fact Iceland have identified 40 mutations of the virus and can link them back to their places of origin.

The model Oxford have used isn't rigorous but other models will have their flaws too. It will be interesting to see the results of the study for when the population is tested for antibodies.

[Walt Jabsco]

What are the chances of London going into total lock down in the next few days?