The Horse racing thread

[Radda bout yeee]

Doubt the great denman is finished! 

[Donnellys Hollow]

There has been a hole in Denman ever since the Gold Cup he won. That race bottomed him and possibly soured him slightly. The only times he has shown any real enthusiasm for the game is when he's been very fresh - both the 2009 & 2010 Hennessys. Hard to believe he went off at such a skinny price considering he has only won one race in three years.

Great run from Caroles Legacy. Nice bit of black type for her now as she goes off to the covering shed.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

There has been a hole in Denman ever since the Gold Cup he won. That race bottomed him and possibly soured him slightly. The only times he has shown any real enthusiasm for the game is when he's been very fresh - both the 2009 & 2010 Hennessys. Hard to believe he went off at such a skinny price considering he has only won one race in three years.

Great run from Caroles Legacy. Nice bit of black type for her now as she goes off to the covering shed.

To be second in three Gold Cups is no mean achievement mind you DH. Didn't fancy at all today I must say. Would love to have Big Bucks taken over to Punchestown to face Quevega in the stayer's hurdle.

[Brick Tamlin]

could someone post the 1,2,3 as they come in please?

[drici]

RTÉ except for the TV3 games.

May 15th Donegal 1-10 Antrim 0-07 3-30pm

May 22nd  Laois 0-10 Longford 0-09 2-00pm   Kildare 0-12 Wicklow 0-05 4-00pm

May 29th Dublin v Offaly 2-00pm (H)   Tipperary v Cork 4-00pm (H)

June 4th Limerick v Kerry 6-45pm

June 5th Kildare v Meath 2-00pm   Laois v Dublin 4-00pm TV3

June 11th Antrim/Wexford v Kilkenny 7-00pm (H)

June 12th Leitrim v Roscommon 2-00pm   Limerick v Waterford 4-00pm (H)

June 18th Westmeath/Galway v Dublin/Offaly 7-00pm (H)

June 19th Derry v Armagh/Down 2-00pm

June 25th Football Qualifier 7-00pm

June 26th London/Mayo v Galway 2-00pm   Kildare/Meath v Laois/Dublin 4-00pm

July 3rd Munster Senior Football Final 2-00pm

July 10th Leinster Senior Football Final 2-00pm   Munster Senior Hurling Final 4-00pm (H) - yes.

July 16th Football Qualifier 7-00pm

July 17th Ulster Senior Football Final 2-00pm TV3   Connacht Senior Football Final 4-00pm TV3

(July 23-31 - The All-Ireland Senior Football Championship fourth round Qualifiers and All-Ireland Senior Football Championship Quarter Finals will take place during this period. It has yet to be confirmed which broadcaster will be covering these games.)

July 23rd Football Qualifier 7-00pm

July 24th All Ireland Senior Hurling Quarter-finals (H)

July 30/31 All Ireland Senior Football Quarter-finals

August 7th All Ireland Minor Hurling  & Senior Hurling Semi Final (H)

August 14th All Ireland Minor Football & Senior Hurling Semi Final (H)

August  21st All Ireland Minor Football & Senior Football Semi Fnal

August 28th All Ireland Minor Football & Senior Football Semi Final

September 5th All Ireland Minor Hurling Final TV3 (H)  All Ireland Senior Hurling Final (H)

September 18th All Ireland Minor Football Final TV3   All Ireland Senior Football Final

[Brick Tamlin]

much appreciated. Happy enough with my last minute lucky15
Carloes Legacy
Baby Run
Wollcome Folly
Wishful thinking

[Mac hinery]

Hardy, will you be posting your annual Grand National statistical analysis this year?

[Hardy]

Hardy, will you be posting your annual Grand National statistical analysis this year?

I'm working on it for myself and I'll post it, but I won't have all that much confidence in it. The usefulness of the National stats has been shot to hell by the handicapper's eccentricities in the past two years and it's a bit of a grope in the dark to figure out the effects of the way he compiles the weights now.

Overall, the effect is that horses carrying bigger weights have a better chance than they used to, which is a good thing, as it means the better horses now have a better chance. Conversely, it's harder for a lowly handicapped runner to be competitive than it was. But it means that the stats of previous runnings no longer directly apply and the overall effect is to make it harder to pick out horses with an obvious advantage.

I've made a few assumptions about new viable weight ranges and I'm analysing stats on that basis, but it's a bit of a guess, really.

[haranguerer]

Russian war e/w and Carlito Brigante without the big 2 tomorrrow!

Some call! Good man!

[Radda bout yeee]

DH whats your thoughts on the melling chase today?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Very hard race to weigh up. I'd want to be against Master Minded because I have suspected for a while that he's just gone at the game. Kalahari King never seems to win and Somersby was stuffed over course and distance last year. Albertas Run is a worthy favourite but the price is skinny enough after a hard race at Cheltenham. I know Tranquil Sea was well fancied for the Ryanair before he had to pull out and he might just be that bit fresher than the front four in the market. Mad Max also looks like a Liverpool horse to me - never seems to run his race at Cheltenham. I'd go with both of them against the field.

I haven't had a bet today. The 2 mile novice hurdle looks one of the worst quality Grade 1s ever. The only bet I'd consider at the moment is Back In Focus in the 3 mile novice. He won a hot race at Haydock on his first run under rules after winning a p2p at Kilfeacle in January. Being a Bob Back, he should improve for this better ground.

[Hardy]

As we've discussed, the stats are hard to assess this year for the National The handicapper has gone outside normal practice for the last few years and has tried to thwart trainers who try to keep under his radar by running their horses in hurdles and the like. He's tried to re-balance the weights so that better class horses are not run out of it by donkeys carrying hardly anything.

The result is probably good for the quality of the race, but bad for people trying to assess the statistics. For the last two years, the well-proven statistics of years have been torn up by the winners and placed horses.

A further result of this is that there are more horses entered with genuine chances - horses that meet the established profile of experience, results, jumping ability, season form, etc.

The upshot is that, even adjusting the weight criterion, more than half the field meet the main statistical criteria. Trying to narrow it down then becomes an exercise in applying less significant criteria and trying to weight these criteria in their importance. This really turns what's intended to be an objective assessment into a subjective judgement. Somebody else could apply the same tests, interpret them differently and come up with different selections. So I have no real confidence in the outcome.

OK – that's enough disclaimers.

I've narrowed the contenders down to five. The shortest is 20/1. That raises another stat – 7 of the last 10 winners were 20/1 or less. On the other hand, 9 of the last 10 winners were over 25/1 at publication of the weights. What can you make of that?

I'm probably going to back all of these each way:

Niche Market 20/1, 27 on Betfair
Chief Dan George 40/1, 70
Bluesea Cracker 25/1, 30
Can't Buy Time 66/1, 180 (!)
Golden Kite 66/1, 130

I'd be interested to hear bcarrier's and other stats fans' take on the race and DH's form view.

[beer baron]

Dev e/w 3.40 from same source as russian war yesterday!

[Candyman]

Lucky 15:

Back In Focus @ 6/1    
Alfa Beat @ 14/1 
The Giant Bolster @ 8/1 (forgave him and DH after last month) 
Tranquil Sea @ 13/2

Also Backed for a bit of interest:

Dev @ 15/2
Baby Shine @ 7/1
Devil to Pay @ 3/1 (Fontwell)

[Groucho]

Lucky 15:

Back In Focus @ 6/1    
Alfa Beat @ 14/1 
The Giant Bolster @ 8/1 (forgave him and DH after last month) 
Tranquil Sea @ 13/2

Also Backed for a bit of interest:

Dev @ 15/2
Baby Shine @ 7/1
Devil to Pay @ 3/1 (Fontwell)

Much drink taken?