The Horse racing thread

[Donnellys Hollow]

Note to self ...

Keep a bank for day of race IR lays or forget Ante Post betting altogether.
Dont ignore the obvious  - Ruby top jock/Quevega/ Big Bucks maybe even Sizing ( stats pick)
Bet ew.
Paddy Power knows.
Just copy DH 

That's the key IMO - to all betting, not just Cheltenham. Everything down to at least 3/1 should be backed each way. It does require a larger outlay, but it should minimise any losses you incur.

Ante-post betting can be very hit and miss. I have had some decent results ante-post, but I've had some catastrophic ones as well. I find I'm backing less and less before Christmas now than I used to. I'm sure there were plenty of people who backed Zaidpour before Christmas at skinny prices when he did look like a bit of an aeroplane. I had a superb result with First Lieutenant but that could easily have gone the other way after his Fairyhouse reversal. Plenty of people would have backed Cue Card and Big Bucks prior to the New Year at shorter prices than they were available at on the day. It's probably wise to limit ante-post bets before Christmas and wait until late January/early February to get on large. Running plans and the worth of the form is clearer by then, and there's still plenty of value left in the markets.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Some cracking photos of last week's action up on the RP site:

Sizing Europe


Ryanair nutter


Russell


O'Connor


Walsh


Oscars Well slip


First Lieutenant


Hurricane Fly


Quevega and the Clane crowd

[Hardy]

Did you see what the Ryanair nut was up to DH? They were careful not to give him any exposure on the TV.

Great pics.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Did you see what the Ryanair nut was up to DH? They were careful not to give him any exposure on the TV.

Great pics.

Haven't a notion Hardy. Walsh went back down the hill and gave him a right earful anyway.

Sizing Europe paraded at the Curragh on Sunday


Hurricane Fly at the Curragh


O'Brien checking out the new Istabraq!

[hsthompson]

How many Irish winners were there in total at Cheltenham then? I take it we broke our previous record?

[rossie mad]

Thirteen in all which was great for the sport in this country.

Actually going into the final race it was 13 winners a piece for the irish and british trainers.

The only irish horse in that race finished second at 33/1!!

The previous record was ten.

[Donnellys Hollow]

How many Irish winners were there in total at Cheltenham then? I take it we broke our previous record?

13 winners. Our previous best was 10 in 2006. There are more races nowadays though. Hurricane Fly, Sizing Australia, Quevega, Chicago Grey, First Lieutenant, Bostons Angel, Sizing Europe, Carlito Brigante, What A Charm, Noble Prince, Final Approach, Zemsky, and Sir Des Champs were the 13 winners.

Of the English trained winners - Al Ferof used to be trained by Liz Doyle in Wexford winning a p2p and a bumper here. She also used to train Cheltenian who came second in a Punchestown bumper in October. Bensalem was also previously trained in Ireland and won a p2p at Dromahane in December 2007.

There were 15 Irish bred winners - Captain Chris, Bensalem, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Autralia, Chicago Grey, First Lieutenant, Bostons Angel, Sizing Europe, Carlito Brigante, What A Charm, Buena Vista, Albertas Run, Zarkander, Bobs Worth, and Zemsky.

Surprisingly only 4 winners had graduated from the p2p field which is slightly disappointing - Al Ferof, Bensalem, First Lieutenant, and Zemsky.

Irish jockeys won 20 races at the meeting - Ruby Walsh (4), Andrew Lynch (2), Derek O'Connor (2), Davy Russell (2), Tony McCoy (2), Graham Lee, Robbie Power, Paul Townend, Conor O'Farrell, Jamie Codd, Daryl Jacob, Barry Geraghty, and Emmet Mullins. I don't know if the lad that rode Holmwood Legend is Irish or not but with a name like Kieran Burke, he could be. Divers and Albertas Run would be classed as English trained winners but both are trained by Irishmen (Ferdy Murphy and Jonjo O'Neill).

I think these stats paper over the cracks in the industry at the moment. You have to remember that a lot of these horses would have been bred/sold in the middle of the last decade before the economy really went belly up. We'll never go back to the days of Galmoy when we were wiped out at Cheltenham but there could be lean times in the years to come. I heard Noel Meade interviewed a few weeks ago and he's had to halve the size of his yard and he only ran two horses at Cheltenham (Realt Dubh and Pandorama). That's frightening considering Noel would have been the champion trainer only a few years ago. The syndicates are more or less all gone and we'll be relying on the big owners like Gigginstown and JP and the bigger trainers like Mullins and Elliot to train Irish winners at Cheltenham. We got a preview of the future last week with Gigginstown having three winners. The English handicapper is sure to exact his retribution next year too.

[wherefromref]

DH your an endless fountain of equine knowledge!!

[Hardy]

Interesting stuff, DH. (According to Ted Walsh, Kieran Burke is Irish).

When you take into account the relative numbers of Irish and British runners, we outperformed them by about 3.5 to one as regards winners.

Irish win rate: 13% (13 winners from 100 runners).
British win rate: 3.7% (14 from 375).

Irish place rate: 19% (19 from 100).
British place rate: 19.5% (73 from 375).

[highorlow]

DH, Is that gold cup horse, Long Run a French Horse? and if so do you have any stats on the amount of horses outside Ireland and the UK that have won at Chelt?

[Candyman]

Few quid been put on Optic Measure @ Thurles 5.35...

[Donnellys Hollow]

DH, Is that gold cup horse, Long Run a French Horse? and if so do you have any stats on the amount of horses outside Ireland and the UK that have won at Chelt?

Long Run is a French bred horse and was trained in France as a 3yo and 4yo. He moved to Nicky Henderson's yard in the winter of 2009.

Most horses that win at Cheltenham would be either Irish or French bred. Very few British bred horses have won at the festival in recent years. In terms of winners trained outside the UK and Ireland - France would have had a few down the years mainly with Francois Doumen who trained The Fellow and Baracouda. There have been a few German trained runners (Fiepes Shuffle ran a few times at Cheltenham) and a few Czech trained horses have ran in the Cross Country but I don't think they've made much of an impression.

[bcarrier]

http://www.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/bloodstock-live-long-run-seals-major-cadoudal-double/831117/

Festival standings:

No. of Irish-bred winners: 15

No. of French-bred winners: 8

No. of British-bred winners: 3

No. of German-bred winners: 1



Top five jumps sires and their Cheltenham runners today:

King's Theatre (£1,346,251); No Secrets (Albert Bartlett), Theatre Diva (Foxhunters)

Oscar (£1,195,616); Teaforthree, Moonlight Drive (Albert Bartlett), Oscar Delta (Foxhunters), Askthemaster (Grand Annual)

Presenting (£1,100,723); Cockney Trucker (County Hurde), Denman, China Rock (Gold Cup), Joacci , Just Amazing, Zenski (Foxhunters)

Beneficial (£994,790); Mister Hyde (Martin Pipe), Tanks For That, Fiendish Flame (Grand Annual)

Flemensfirth (£902,383); Imperial Commander, Pandorama, Tidal Bay (Gold Cup)

[Groucho]

Few quid been put on Optic Measure @ Thurles 5.35...

5:35 - Thurles
Win €5.30
Place €1.80; €11.00; €2.20;
Exacta €605.90

15 Articular 13/2
3 Famous Last Words 33/1
2 Anonis 9/2 Jt F
17 Ran

Non Runners:
Badger Daly, Is Himself About, De' Oro, Our Pollyanna

You must have been at the optics yourself

[Sea The Stars]

Any thoughts on today's Meydan card - world's richest race meeting featuring the world's richest race!? Or is this an an entirely jumps thread? It's live on TG4 from 1.00 to 6.00!

The Japanese runners, Buena Vista and Victoire Pisa have outstanding chances in the World Cup but have several stats to overcome. Twice Over is a worthy favourite but ran poorly in this race last year - although showed no sign of doing the same when hacking up in the latest round of the Maktoum Challenge - normally an excellent trial. And, a famous moment for Irish racing when Aidan O'Brien saddles Cape Blanco - their first ever in this race. It's a very good race this year, probably not good enough to do justice to it's title, but in previous years, there's been some shocking ones. Anyway I'll go with Victoire Pisa for the win.

The Sheema Classic is as weak a renewal I've ever seen - think Rewilding has a brilliant chance but if looking for an outsider, which I often like to do in these type of races where the standard is well below of what's normally required - look no further than the Hong Kong raider - King Dancer.

The addition of a new turf sprint race has done no good for either itself or it's Tapeta counterpart - the Golden Shaheen. I much preferred when the Al Quoz Sprint was run on Super Thursday but will go for the two favourites in both, JJ the Jet Plane and Rocket Man (outstanding international sprinter and deserves a big one).

Looking forward to the Duty Free most - where I've backed another Singaporean - Better Than Ever. Beaten once in fifteen stars, which came on very ground, and broke the mile track record and the well-renowned Kranji track on his last start. Another who has a chance is Royal Bench who flew home off a slow pace in the Hong Kong Mile in December and with more pace on here, has a chance.