The Horse racing thread

[Donnellys Hollow]

No update yet on HF. No news is good news I suppose.

Gris Lord at the last at Ayr tommorrow.

Hard to see him out of the three. Decent p2p form and a good third in a bumper at DR. Best of luck Norf.

[Norf Tyrone]

No update yet on HF. No news is good news I suppose.

Gris Lord at the last at Ayr tommorrow.

Hard to see him out of the three. Decent p2p form and a good third in a bumper at DR. Best of luck Norf.

Blitzed. Nowhere. F**king donkey!

[bcarrier]

Have been follwing Paul jones ( sportspunter01) on twitter . He has a great book for stats every year ....http://www.weatherbysshop.co.uk/acatalog/info_467.html and has been doing a stat a day countdown to the festival . Here is his lot so far ..


Fest 32/73: Bobs Worth new Fav for Neptune but Henderson is 0-21 & just 2 top-tens since 1990! (7th & 5th)
Fest Stat 30/73: First 3 named also have to defy same 20-yr stat of no GC wnr coming off a single start in same season.
Fest Stat 29/73: No Gold Cup winner for 20 years had their last start before Boxing Day. Imp Comm, Denman, Diamond Harry & Midnight Chase?
Fest Stat 28/73: 3/5 winrs of today's 'PP Hogan' at Punch won the Fest X-Country Ch. Race also supplied r/u in '06/7/8.
Fest Stat 27/73: The last 47 RSA winners ran in same calendar yr & just 1 wnr less than 3 chase starts in last 20 yrs.
Fest Stat 26/73: 8/10 Champion Chase winners ran in Tingle Creek. No other Fest race has such high % in last 10 yrs
Fest Stat 25/73: Just 1/22 CH wnrs since '88 ran in last yr's Supreme. Fact Menorah, Dunguib & Oscar W need to overcome
Fest Stat 24/73: Since upped to 3m race in '05 the Cleeve Hdle has featured 3 World Hdle wnrs, 2 seconds and 2 thirds.
Fest Stat 23/73: Of the last 5 years, just 7 of the 32 handicap chases between 2m5f-3m were won by horses under 10/1
Fest Stat 22/73: Since 1988, the Irish Champion Hurdle winner has recorded 5 wins and 3 seconds in the Champion Hurdle.
Fest Stat 21/73: 7 of last 8 Irish-trained winners of the Arkle contested Sunday's Irish Arkle to be staged on Sunday.
Fest Stat 20/73: All 12 winners of the 2 novice h'caps had been beaten on their first 2 starts at their new discipline.
Fest Stat 19/73: Over half of Henderson's 37 Fest wnrs have been over 2m-2m1f & he has 6 ante-post favs in such races
Fest Stat 18/73: Of the last 20 Xmas Hdle winners to run in the Champion Hurdle, only Kribensis has won since Dawn Run.
Fest Stat 17/73: Re the Supreme, NH-breds are taking over lately winning last 3 runnings including 1-2-3-4-5 last 2 yrs
Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs.
Fest Stat 15/73: With 18 wins since '77 the Supreme has been by far Ire's most successful race of Fest with 7 more wnrs than any other race.
Fest Stat 14/73: The King George is the best Fest guide since 1989 feat 19 wnrs including the last 3 Ryanair winners.
Fest Stat 13/73: Since Mill House only Dawn Run has won GC with less than 6 runs over fences. D Harry, Dulcote, Rupert?
Fest Stat 12/73: Been argued Fest Bump wnr has poor record at following Fest but 3 wins & 2 places from 11 to return.
Fest Stat 11/73: Since 1980 134 horses under 2/1 with 54 winning (LSP -£6.27) but a +£8.72 LSP if last 10 Fests only.
Fest Stat 10/73: In 6 runnings of Ryanair Chase, course winners made up 49% of field but supplied 91% of winners & 2nds
Fest Stat 9/73: Yesterday's Tolworth Hdle been jt-best nov hdle guide to Fest over last 15 runnings featuring 6 wnrs.
Fest Stat 8/73: All 13 wnrs of Challow Hdle to run in Neptune were beaten, vast majority to front of market. Backspin?
Fest Stat 7/73: The last 8 wnrs of the Arkle & RSA had all won pattern races over hurdles from just 28% representation.
Fest Stat 6/73: Last 16 Champion Hdle wnrs ran during same calendar year. In fact, only 1 of last 27 did not. Menorah?
Fest Stat 5/73:Gold Cup 2nd/3rd favs Kauto & Denman are both 11yr olds & last Gold Cup wnr aged over 10 was 42 yrs ago
Fest Stat 4/73: 6/7 Triumph Hdle wnrs made hurdling debut in Dec/Jan unlike A-P fav Sam Winner. Keep those eyes peeled
Fest Stat 3/73: The 4yo bumper at Leo'towns Xmas Meet was won by 2 Fest Bumpers wnrs on their final outing. Can Bold Optimist make it three?
Fest Stat 2/73: 9/11 Arkle wnrs had hdle rating 142+ & won NovCh by 1st w/e Dec-so few qualify so Fin Rain value at 8s?
Fest Stat 1/73: If Time For Rupert wins RSA he'll be first for 20yrs to spend more than 1 season over hdles 7/2 anyone?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Very interesting bcarrier. I wouldn't pay any attention to some of them but there's a few gems in there:

Fest Stat 1/73: If Time For Rupert wins RSA he'll be first for 20yrs to spend more than 1 season over hdles 7/2 anyone?

Always something I bear in mind when looking at novice chasers. Horses that have spent too long hurdling pick up bad habits.

Fest Stat 4/73: 6/7 Triumph Hdle wnrs made hurdling debut in Dec/Jan unlike A-P fav Sam Winner. Keep those eyes peeled

Nearly all juveniles come straight off the flat so those that go hurdling before Christmas have been on the go since the previous Spring and they tend to be over the top/exposed by the time Cheltenham comes round.

Fest Stat 5/73:Gold Cup 2nd/3rd favs Kauto & Denman are both 11yr olds & last Gold Cup wnr aged over 10 was 42 yrs ago

Can't see this stat being broken this year. You've got to take both horses on despite what they've done in the past. They're not capable of running up to that form again.

Fest Stat 32/73: Bobs Worth new Fav for Neptune but Henderson is 0-21 & just 2 top-tens since 1990! (7th & 5th)

I'd always be wary of Henderson's novice hurdlers. They tend to be talked up to the hilt. Aigle D'or was supposed to be the second coming and he was stuffed. Amaretto Rose went off a ridiculously short price for the Supreme and she didn't land a blow. Bobs Worth is a nice horse with good course form but that form is suspect IMO. They went no gallop early on and the clown riding the second horse had a shocker. I think First Lieutenant is a stonking good bet in that race at a much bigger price. Form is staking up very nicely with Hidden Cyclone winning a Grade 2 since. Expect Zaidpour will give it another boost on Sunday.

[maddog]

What has happened to that Cooldine that ran away with the RSA a couple of seasons back ?

Would Joncol be worth ew stab in the gold cup ?

[Donnellys Hollow]

What has happened to that Cooldine that ran away with the RSA a couple of seasons back ?

Would Joncol be worth ew stab in the gold cup ?

The RSA bottomed out Cooldine like it had done to many good horses in the past. It's a brutal race for a novice. He's only been a shell of a horse since. It wouldn't surprise me if he won a Grade 1 again in the future but that win promised so much more.

Joncol is doubtful to go to Cheltenham. I'm not sure he'd get 3m2 either. He was running on empty in the 2009 Lexus after the last when they rode him handy.

[bcarrier]

Quote from: bcarrier on February 01, 2011, 09:22:34 AM

    Fest Stat 32/73: Bobs Worth new Fav for Neptune but Henderson is 0-21 & just 2 top-tens since 1990! (7th & 5th)


I'd always be wary of Henderson's novice hurdlers. They tend to be talked up to the hilt. Aigle D'or was supposed to be the second coming and he was stuffed. Amaretto Rose went off a ridiculously short price for the Supreme and she didn't land a blow. Bobs Worth is a nice horse with good course form but that form is suspect IMO. They went no gallop early on and the clown riding the second horse had a shocker. I think First Lieutenant is a stonking good bet in that race at a much bigger price. Form is staking up very nicely with Hidden Cyclone winning a Grade 2 since. Expect Zaidpour will give it another boost on Sunday.

Bobs Worth is a poor price imo .. he is improving but they seemed surprised at the weekend and horse ranked behind Chablais and Minella Class  in betting before that. Agree about FL.

[Donnellys Hollow]

If there's one trainer I'd pick to get a novice absolutely spot on for Cheltenham it would be Mouse Morris. War Of Attrition, Venalmar and China Rock all ran crackers in their respective novice hurdles there at huge prices - (33/1 2nd, 11/1 2nd, 25/1 4th).

[Joxer]

You fancy anything today in Down Royal DH?

[boojangles]

If there's one trainer I'd pick to get a novice absolutely spot on for Cheltenham it would be Mouse Morris. War Of Attrition, Venalmar and China Rock all ran crackers in their respective novice hurdles there at huge prices - (33/1 2nd, 11/1 2nd, 25/1 4th).

Is it the Neptune First Lietenant will be targetting do ya reckon??
He is currently 12/1 with PP. 
People must have been impressed with Rock on Ruby on Saturday. He has gone from 20s into 8s.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Probably run in the Neptune:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/01/25/RACING_Lieutenant.html

Rock On Ruby should have won on Saturday. Skelton (who is a very average jockey) dropped his whip and Geraghty's strength got Bobs Worth home.

If I was having a bet at Down Royal I'd back Flycorn e/w in the bumper. It's poor enough fare though.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/02/02/manual_115911.html&BID=465

Entries for the National out today. As Nicholls had warned, no Denman amongst the entries.

[Lecale2]

Any fancies today? I've a few quid on Alfie Spinner.

When is Ruby expected back?

[beer baron]

Any fancies today? I've a few quid on Alfie Spinner.

When is Ruby expected back?

Lingfield 2.55 desert icon i expect to win,just a fancy!It should've won last time out but was given an attrocious ride and still nearly got up!Problem is it's same jockey aboard again but she can't be as bad again?

[BennyHarp]

Captain Chis in 2.25 at Sandown seems to be getting well talked up and betted this morning! Backed from 7s to 4s.