The Horse racing thread

[Sea The Stars]

Retirement beckons. No point in flogging the horse around Cheltenham now. Good show from the winner - not sure he's a Gold Cup horse though. Some day for Henderson.

Bit of an over-reaction.

Ground was against Kauto today, read a few quotes around the place that it'd suit him, but he got in close to the 3rd, 4th and 5th and we knew then that he has having trouble jumping out of it.

Wouldn't write him off yet. Proper preparation for the Gold Cup and decent ground should bring out the real Kauto. Of course, his best days are probably behind him. But don't think that's enough reason to retire him. And Nicholls is too game to throw in the towel after that.

My guess is the Gold Cup then the Whitbread Gold Cup, after which I guess they may call it a day.

[The Worker]

Maybe a bug going about the Nicholls stable?

Still fancy KS for the gold cup.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Retirement beckons. No point in flogging the horse around Cheltenham now. Good show from the winner - not sure he's a Gold Cup horse though. Some day for Henderson.

Bit of an over-reaction.

Ground was against Kauto today, read a few quotes around the place that it'd suit him, but he got in close to the 3rd, 4th and 5th and we knew then that he has having trouble jumping out of it.

Wouldn't write him off yet. Proper preparation for the Gold Cup and decent ground should bring out the real Kauto. Of course, his best days are probably behind him. But don't think that's enough reason to retire him. And Nicholls is too game to throw in the towel after that.

My guess is the Gold Cup then the Whitbread Gold Cup, after which I guess they may call it a day.

Disagree completely. When a horse regresses it usually happens very quickly and dramatically - Moscow Flyer and Istabraq being prime examples. Kauto Star is an 11yo French bred with many miles on the clock. I can't see any reason why he'll beat Imperial Commander who is now a superior horse - based on Haydock & Cheltenham form last year. Plenty of the younger unexposed brigade will be in there pitching as well.

Kempton has always been Kauto Star's track. Anywhere near his best and he'd have won today regardless of the ground. He's won on heavy going before so I'm not sure that is any excuse. If they have the best interests of the horse at heart they'll retire him. The Gold Cup is a brutal race and I think they'd be very foolish to risk a great horse for third or fourth prize-money.

[Sea The Stars]

Perhaps, perhaps. But really what's the risk? Might finish third/fourth, dent his reputation a bit. Might also win. That's the height of it. Very small chance he might fall too and do harm. But he's a horse, a gelded one, and it's a risk you take every time you put a saddle on one.

Also, I've believed for some time now that the neccessity of good ground to Kauto Star has been under-estimated. As he's got older, this need has been exaggerated. He just does not jump as well when it's slow, at times struggling to leave the ground and getting in close to fences. He'll get it better at Cheltenham and the extra trip will help too.

And finally, I'd wonder what inconvience the three week delay caused? Yes, it was the same for all horses but Long Run is 6, Kauto is 11. As a true champion, at his age, I don't think he'll have appreciated being messed around like he was.

[the greatest jockey]

the extra trip surely wont help given that an easy 3 miles around kempton was his optimum distance and the three weeks argument is a non starter, the opposite approach could just as easily be taken, kauto is eleven, a three week break shouldnt affect his preparations too much while long run is an inexperienced six year old who could have been thrown off by the delay

[bcarrier]

A very fine days racing at Kempton. Kauto is a legend but the stats were against him.  The horse is just too old now .... Henderson had some day and after a patchy start to 2010/11 looks to have his stable in top nick ( Warwick misfortunes apart   )  ...can he get them to peak again in March ?

[Sea The Stars]

the extra trip surely wont help given that an easy 3 miles around kempton was his optimum distance and the three weeks argument is a non starter, the opposite approach could just as easily be taken, kauto is eleven, a three week break shouldnt affect his preparations too much while long run is an inexperienced six year old who could have been thrown off by the delay

Nicholls confirmed my thoughts after the race by saying the extra distance of the Gold Cup will suit.

As you say yourself, Kauto is eleven years of age, he's not regressing so much as he is just losing a bit of his speed. He was running on again before the mistake at the second last, probably wasn't going to catch the winner but looked booked for a decent second.

On the point of the three week delay, your argument is not too succinctly made. Like people, horses get fussy as they get older. Kauto's internal clock is set for December 26th, he was trained up for the race of his life and suddenly, he's given a week long break before Nicholls begins to wind it up again with the intense training. We're not suggesting this as a cause for defeat but I think it's quite likely the three week delay is going to cause more inconvience to an older horse than a young one. At least that would seem obvious to me.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Perhaps, perhaps. But really what's the risk? Might finish third/fourth, dent his reputation a bit. Might also win. That's the height of it. Very small chance he might fall too and do harm. But he's a horse, a gelded one, and it's a risk you take every time you put a saddle on one.

Granted the risk is small but it is accentuated in a brutal race like the Gold Cup and for a horse like Kauto Star who can clout one. If he had made the mistake he made at the second last today at the fence coming down the hill at Cheltenham (much stiffer fences compared to Kempton) he'd end up on his neck for the second year running. I'm sure connections of Dorans Pride thought there was little risk in bringing him back to Cheltenham for one last hurrah and look at how that worked out.

I really can't see the horse coming close to winning at Cheltenham and he's nothing left to prove now anyway having already won the Gold Cup twice. Retiring him now would be the wise decision instead of asking the horse to go to the well once more.

As you say yourself, Kauto is eleven years of age, he's not regressing so much as he is just losing a bit of his speed. He was running on again before the mistake at the second last, probably wasn't going to catch the winner but looked booked for a decent second.

One and the same. When a horse regresses their cruising speed reduces. The same thing happened Moscow Flyer and Istabraq. Moscow Flyer was the best two mile chaser I've ever seen but in his last season as a 12yo he could barely keep up with the likes of Fota Island, Central House and Hi Cloy - horses he'd have laughed at a year or two previously. Istabraq was a 3/4 brother to Secreto but, as a 10yo with many miles on the clock, he simply couldn't go the clip they went in the 2002 Champion Hurdle.

It's remarkable tha Kauto Star has been at the top for so long given that he is a French bred. French bred horses usually hit their peak between the ages of 7-8. Irish breds tend to mature later and hold their form longer. Kauto Star is 11 now and it's 42 years since a horse that age won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It would be madness having another crack at it IMO.

[Sea The Stars]

Regression might also imply a reversal in stamina, strength, jumping and interest. That's my own interpretation of the word anyway, not sure if it applies solely to speed. Poor Kauto, he's not as fast as he once was but I still think he enjoys it as much as ever, stays just as well and given the benefit of the doubt (on account of today's ground), jumps. Hence, my suggestion that it's his slowing down that now hinders him, not a reduction in overall ability.

As for the Gold Cup itself, I certainly give him a chance. A case of emotion ruling head, maybe, but I've seen this horse prove his critics wrong too often to accept that he's finished winning due to a third place in the King George. I also think they'll go to Sandown following the Gold Cup, for a tilt at the Withbread Gold Cup. The only thing that might sway that opinion was if Kauto actually won at Cheltenham and the desire to go out on a high became too much.

Out of interest, what do you like for the Gold Cup?

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

I'd be very surprised if Kauto didn't at least try to defy the sands of time in March. For sentimental reasons I'd love to see him try though I understand DH's point and would be devestated if anything were to happen to a truely wonderful animal. The jockey issue is very interesting now. On 2010 form, Ruby must surely favour Denman to the Great One.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Out of interest, what do you like for the Gold Cup?

I don't have a strong opinion on the Gold Cup at this time but I would want to be against both Denman and Kauto Star. Only seven horses aged 11 and older have won the race. They're both on the downgrade and represent poor value mainly due to their previous achievements. Imperial Commander is only one year younger but he does have far less miles on the clock. I wouldn't be too keen on him at the price but I'd be confident he'll beat the two Nicholls horses.

If I was guaranteed the race would be run on soft ground than I'd be very keen on Pandorama at 16s but at this stage he's a doubtful runner. Can't have either Diamond Harry or Long Run at the track - both having been well beaten in big races there twice. I'd still have major reservations about Waley-Cohen as well even after today. I don't think he's a particularly good amateur compared to the likes of the McNamaras, Jamie Codd, Derek O'Connor, Nina etc and the horse won in spite of him today.

Pride Of Dulcote has a very nice profile and has good festival form having ran second behind Weapons Amnesty in the three mile novice hurdle a few years back. Pricewise but him up a few days ago though and any value that was there seems to have disappeared. I think China Rock is overpriced at 66/1. I know it sounds a bit hypocritical because he was 4L behind Kauto Star at Down Royal but this horse needs the ground like a road to be at his best and it was like a bog that day. He's ran very well at the last two festivals and he was improving in the autumn at a rate of knots. I like the fact that Mouse has put him away (as he did with War Of Attrition in 2006) and he's sure to be primed for targets in the spring. I very much doubt he'll win the race but at the prices I think he's the best value bet at present.

At this stage I see Imperial Commander as the most likely winner but I wouldn't be breaking down the door to the bookies to take 7/2 when realistically he'll probably be available at no shorter than 11/4 or 5/2 if he turns up fit and well in March.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Just an observation on the time of the race today - it was run in a time 4 seconds quicker than last year's race so that would suggest anyway that the ground was at least as soft, if not softer, when Kauto Star won the race by a distance.

[winsamsoon]

R Walsh reckoned the ground was just a tad better than last year.

I think that is the end of Kauto as a major player myself but he wil probably be thrown into the mix for the Gold Cup. IMO the horse should be retired, by christ he's earned it. Despite costing me a fortune today i am willing to forgive him and wish him all the best.

One positive that will come out of his presence at cheltenham will be that the punters may get slightly bigger prices on the younger horses as there will always be money for both Denman and Kauto . I will be looking elsewhere and opposing Imperial commander

[beer baron]

Chino valdes e/w 1.40 fairyhouse

[Sea The Stars]

Paul Nicholls is in defiant mood today. Reports that Kauto Star will be back in the Autumn for a third James Nicholson Champion Chase. Main aim for now though is to once again regain the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup. "As long as he is enjoying his racing and running well, then he will continue - he is 11, not 13."

I agree with these sentiments and admire the gameness of connections.

He also points out that for the first time in 36 races, Kauto Star bled but he dosen't think that was a cause for defeat.

I'd also take on board the comments above that the ground wasn't as slow as I first believed, and accept that for some other reason (regression as some may call it), Kauto's jumping let him down at times. Still though, I can't help but think he's overpriced for the Gold Cup. In his favour, will be the reunion with Ruby Walsh, longer trip, more routine-like preparation, and possible better ground. Also if you believe the bleeding had an effect, then there's that too as well as the fact that the Nicholls stable is out of form at present.

Yesterday was the first time, the horse finished outside the first two (when completing) since joining Paul Nicholls. It may be so that he under-performed just like he did in the 2006 Champion Chase, the 2007 Aon Chase, the 2008 Betfair Bowl and the 2008 Betfair Chase. He bounced back from those faux-pas, why not again? We were told by so-called experts back then, that the horse would never get the Gold Cup trip and later we were reminded he was French bred, and that this somehow implied he'd never win a race past the age of 8. I think the horse is at least, owed the chance to answer his critics - God knows he's answered them enough times in the past.