The Horse racing thread

[Hardy]

[Don Johnson]

Can't believe this thread is on page 2 after day one of Aintree.

Bad day punting for me all round. Glad to see First Lieutenant win (even though I had SIlviniaco backed).

How many does Sprinter win by tomorrow then? Coral going 1/1 over 8. I think he wins easy, just a matter of when Geraghty presses the button on him.

[Declan]

Got this from a mate :

It's that time of year again!
The time where i spend days and hours trawling through the form and stats of the grand national and then unwittingly throw my hard earned cash down the pan :-) But sure it's kept me out of trouble for a few weeks!

Stamina: Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more. Not all horses entered will actually have won in previous races over long distances but try to pick one that has at least finished and placed in one.                                                      
Class:    Only one horse with a rating of over 154 has won the Grand National and only 4 have been placed in the last 22 years. In the last 24 years every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only 2 horses winning from ""out of the handicap"". Consider horses rated between 136 and 145 as this group has provided every single winner for the past 12 years. Although the 2010 winner was rated 153 and last years winner was rated 150. The changes to the rules of the national have allowed for better rated horses to take part and compete well in the race."                                                   
Performance:    Each of the last 15 winners had proven ability in a top race and had won a race worth at least £17,000. Last years winner Ballabriggs had only secured a race over 17k on only one occasion prior to winning the national.                                                      
Jumping: All of the last 15 winners had run at least ten times over fences before big day at Aintree. Horses to have run over hurdles that season (or be lighlty raced over fences) may indicate that the trainer may have been protecting the horse chase handicap mark for the Grand National. 8 OF THE LAST 9 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL Try to avoid horses who have fallen more than twice in their careers. Novices should also be avoided.                                             
Sex/Colour: Only 13 mares have won the Aintree Grand National.  The last mare to win the Grand National was in 1951. Only two greys have won the Grand National in the history of the event.                                                               
Fitness: The Grand National is run around four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree. In recent years only Silver Birch (second the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed. The 2010 winner Don't Push It was pulled up in a race at Cheltenham 3 weeks before winning the national and finished 10/23 at Cheltenham in 2011 before fininshing 3rd in the national. Golden Miller remains the only horse to have won the Grand National and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same year.  Every winner in the past 13 years had had at least four runs prior, in preparation for the big race with the exception of ballabriggs in 2011 who has 3 prep runs to his name. Each of the past 13 winners had previously run in the past two months. Between 1995 and 2004 the National winners ran between 16 and 42 days previously, a trend upheld in 2010 and 2011. Lord Gylenne ran second in the Midlands National."                                                                                                                     
National Form: Since 1998 only one horse that has been placed or indeed won in the previous years national has gone onto win the following year.  Since 1998 3 horses have won the national after failing to finish the race the previous year.  Only three horses in the history of the National have won the race in consecutive years. Red Rum the most recent (1973-4).  Since 1990 16 horses have gone for the double but the results speak for themselves (PPPPP004640262F3).  Previous winners in recent years have been getting closer to the winners enclosure with the new handicapping structure and race entry rules. Since 1990 four winners failed to complete the Grand National course the year before.In the last 24 years, 24 of the horses finishing in the first four ran in the previous year's race. Of those, 12 had won or been placed before, seven had failed to complete the course and five completed but were out of the frame. Six of the last 9 winners had run over the national fences before. Only four horses have won back-to-back Grand Nationals. "                                          
Betting: Only 5 Grand National favorites have won in the last 26 years. Comply Or Die in 2008, with the 2010 winner Don't Push It sharing joint favouritism after a huge pre-race gamble. Only 4 Grand National winners from the last 15 have been bigger than 16/1 at the start of the race. 2009 winner Mon Mome was 100/1. Middle of the Grand National betting market seems to be key. 16 of the last 19 winners were in the top 8 in the betting The race is rarely won by a horse with odds of less than 10/1 (only five since 1978)                                             
Country Bred:   There have been 6 Irish winners in the last 10 renewals. In 2008, 3 of the first 5 home were Irish trained, with all being irish bred. in 2010 the first two home were irish bred. In 2010 the first 3 home and in 2011 the first 2 home were irish bred. French bred runners have a poor record, mostly  due to the fact that very few races n France are run beyond three miles, so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into the stock. They are also trained harder at a younger age so once they get to eight or nine they are ususally past their best. in 2009 Mom Mome Bucked this trend being a french bred winner at 100/1."                                       
Jumping: 8 OF THE LAST 9 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL                                                      
Jockey/Trainer : Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House. Grand National trends - pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don't place too much emphasis on this.  A P McCoy is one of the greatest ever jump jockeys but he only won his first Grand National in 2010!"                                                               
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear of any sort managed just 3 Grand National victory since 1975 from 186 starters (Silver Birch 2007 & Comply or Die 2008 were the latest winners wearing headgear).                                                                                                                     
Cheltenham: Only one horse has followed up a Cheltenham win with a win in the Grand National in the same year since 1961. The Gold Cup has produced 3 winners and 9 placed horses since 1987. 10 of those 12 finished second, third, fourth or fifth."                                             
Hennessy Gold Cup:    In the last 21 years this race has produced 7 winners, along with 15 placed horses. Of those 22, 16 finished in the first five in this race. Niche Market, What A Friend and The Tother One all performed well in this arce in recent years.                                          
Irish National:    Provided 5 winners and 1 placed horse in the last 22 years, with 4 of those winners all coming in the last 10 renewals. Bluesea Cracker and Oscar time were the first 2 home in this race last year. Two horses have actually managed the big race double. Oscar Time has gone close in recent years finishing 2nd in the irish national in 2010 and then 2nd at aintree in 2011."                                                                  
Welsh National: The Welsh National has thrown up 10 win & placed horses in the last 21 years – although only one horse has done the double in this time. Synchronised, Giles Cross, I'moncloudnine and Ballyfitz were the first4 home in the 2011 renewal. Silver By Nature and Le Beau Bai were placed in 2009. In 2012 Le Beau Bai won the welsh national with Giles corss and cappa bleu filling the places.   
                                                                                          
With the ground sure to ride on the quick side of good on saturday i've used that as my main point of focus for this years race.

So here's my shortlist in order of preference:

1. Balthazar King 16/1
2. Always Waining 33/1
3. Teaforthree 14/1
4. Rare Bob 20/1
5. Chicago Grey 14/1
6. Cappa Bleu 11/1

[Don Johnson]

I have three of those on my shortlist (Chicago Grey, Cappa Bleu & Balthazar King). Might chance Soll as well.

Getting annoyed at the media, all reporting yesterday's racing was overshadowed by the loss of Battlefront. Yes it was sad to see but I would hardly say it was overshadowed. Most news outlets I seen didn't even mention the racing, just Battlefront. Jokers.

[thewobbler]

Imperial Commander, if he's fit, will carry them all home. He's a better horse than Neptune Collonges was this time last year, and Grade 1 class told a story that day.

I'm also doing ForPadyThePlasterer for an interest. He should plug on gamely to the end.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Race of the season today - Flemenstar v Cue Card v Finians Rainbow v Sprinter Sacre

It's a pity the freak is running here instead of at Punchestown but it will be fascinating to see if he will be as good over two and a half miles.

[BennyHarp]

What a performance by Sprinter Sacre!!

On a different note, did anyone see Harry Challoner's finish on Croc Bay in the 3.20 at Sedgefield. Horse nearly bucked him off about 50 yards from the line but he hung on round it's neck to win.

[yellowcard]

The question is.....could he win a Gold Cup? Don't expect him to ever try because he is so superior over 2 miles but his utter dominance over a brilliant horse like Cue Card (showing no signs of slowing up) coupled with his pedigree suggests that it would be possible.

[maddog]

I have three of those on my shortlist (Chicago Grey, Cappa Bleu & Balthazar King). Might chance Soll as well.

Getting annoyed at the media, all reporting yesterday's racing was overshadowed by the loss of Battlefront. Yes it was sad to see but I would hardly say it was overshadowed. Most news outlets I seen didn't even mention the racing, just Battlefront. Jokers.

Agree with the media reporting. If a horse is killed in a race at Uttoxeter,Thurlers or at home on the gallops there isn't a word about it.

Aside from the national is there anything else sticking out today ? I like the look of Russian War in 3.25, looks well handicapped against his hurdles rating 12/1

[boojangles]

Come on lads time to stick the neck out.

Imperial Commander
Teaforthree
Always Waining
Cappa Bleu

[Tony Baloney]

I have Quiscover Fontaine in the work sweep. My hard earned will going on the following:

Chicago Grey
Big Fella Thanks

Outsider: Major Malarkey

I know nothing about horses so no theory behind those choices.

[Hardy]

That's interesting  my shortlist is similar to yours, Boojangles:

Imperial Commander
Teaforthree
Always Waining
On His Own
Balthazar King

These are just fancies and I've just put a few bob e.w. on Always Wainng. I'd normally have spent hours on the stats to pick a shortlist but the stats have gone to hell altogether and we'll have to wait a few years to see if there are any worthwhile trends.

[sammymaguire]

Word is supposedly good on Opening Batsman in the next 7/1

[BennyHarp]

For what it's worth, my short list is Join Together, Roberto Goldback and Colbert Station. I've also a small ew on Forpadydeplasterer at big odds as he's an old favourite of mine.

[gerrykeegan]

Chicago grey for me