The Horse racing thread

[maddog]

Anyone fancy putting up their stabs at the spring double for the craic.

Eshtibaak and chicago Grey for me

[Hardy]

Stats-based ratings for the Lincoln

Chapter Seven     30.62
Memory Cloth     24.48
Strictly Silver     24.10
Lahaag      21.06
Justonefortheroad      20.02
Captain Bertie     20.68
Eshtibaak     20.68
Gladys' Gal      19.60
Anderiego     20.68
Hit The Jackpot     17.46
Brae Hill     17.68
Swiftly Done     17.08
Muffin Mcleay     17.26
Chosen Character     17.08
Levitate      17.44
Prince Of Johanne     14.44
Jack's Revenge     13.84
Global Village     10.08
Dubai Dynamo     10.64
Capaill Liath       6.44
Bancnuanaheireann       7.00

[Hardy]

Stats-based ratings for the Irish National

Panther Claw    32.02
Cross Appeal    29.14
Sweeney Tune    24.42
Competitive Edge    24.42
Rich Revival    25.28
Jadanli    25.80
Goonyella    24.82
Our Victoria    24.82
Paddy Pub    25.80
Junio    20.54
He'llberemembered    21.08
Jacksonslady    20.82
Muirhead    21.80
Romanesco    20.82
Questions Answered    21.94
Imperial Shabra    21.48
Liberty Counsel    22.20
Carloswayback    21.22
Magnanimity    17.48
Home Farm    17.22
Whodoyouthink    17.94
Marasonnien    17.22
Away We Go    18.60
Blazing Beacon    17.88
Start Me Up    17.48
Carlingford Lough    17.22
Rapidolyte De Ladalka    16.68
Quietly Fancied    17.88
You Must Know Me    9.62
Cootamundra    9.88

[Hardy]

Anyone fancy putting up their stabs at the spring double for the craic.

Eshtibaak and chicago Grey for me

OK, based on the stats, Chapter Seven and Panther Claw.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Competitive looking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup tomorrow. Anybody with any strong views?

[bcarrier]

Absolutely gutted for JT but just hope he can continue whatever progress there has been.

Panther Claw had a pretty tough.race last week IMO. Just back the three biggest outsiders e.w.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Competitive looking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup tomorrow. Anybody with any strong views?

How many of them will complete the course? There are some seriously skittish jumpers in it.

[never kickt a ball]

Panther Claw had a pretty tough.race last week IMO. Just back the three biggest outsiders e.w.

Stats-based ratings for the Irish National

Panther Claw    32.02
Cross Appeal    29.14
Sweeney Tune    24.42
Competitive Edge    24.42
Rich Revival    25.28
Jadanli    25.80
Goonyella    24.82
Our Victoria    24.82
Paddy Pub    25.80
Junio    20.54
He'llberemembered    21.08
Jacksonslady    20.82
Muirhead    21.80
Romanesco    20.82
Questions Answered    21.94
Imperial Shabra    21.48
Liberty Counsel    22.20
Carloswayback    21.22
Magnanimity    17.48
Home Farm    17.22
Whodoyouthink    17.94
Marasonnien    17.22
Away We Go    18.60
Blazing Beacon    17.88
Start Me Up    17.48
Carlingford Lough    17.22
Rapidolyte De Ladalka    16.68
Quietly Fancied    17.88
You Must Know Me    9.62
Cootamundra    9.88

What's the craic here? P Carberry - N Meade 40/1?

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Panther Claw had a pretty tough.race last week IMO. Just back the three biggest outsiders e.w.

Stats-based ratings for the Irish National

Panther Claw    32.02
Cross Appeal    29.14
Sweeney Tune    24.42
Competitive Edge    24.42
Rich Revival    25.28
Jadanli    25.80
Goonyella    24.82
Our Victoria    24.82
Paddy Pub    25.80
Junio    20.54
He'llberemembered    21.08
Jacksonslady    20.82
Muirhead    21.80
Romanesco    20.82
Questions Answered    21.94
Imperial Shabra    21.48
Liberty Counsel    22.20
Carloswayback    21.22
Magnanimity    17.48
Home Farm    17.22
Whodoyouthink    17.94
Marasonnien    17.22
Away We Go    18.60
Blazing Beacon    17.88
Start Me Up    17.48
Carlingford Lough    17.22
Rapidolyte De Ladalka    16.68
Quietly Fancied    17.88
You Must Know Me    9.62
Cootamundra    9.88

What's the craic here? P Carberry - N Meade 40/1?

Poor effort in last year's renewal and has done little since winning the Paddy Power at Christmas in 2011.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Competitive looking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup tomorrow. Anybody with any strong views?

How many of them will complete the course? There are some seriously skittish jumpers in it.

Went for Mount Benbulben in the end. Convinced Marito had a big hand to play in the Jewson before coming to grief and the form with that one stacks up well. The front 4 in a 6 horse race are very tight in the betting.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Annie Power looks a ready made replacement for Quevega.

[drici]

Just back the three biggest outsiders e.w.

Yahooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

Class advice

[orangeman]

JT McNamara, the Irish jockey paralysed after a fall at Cheltenham, was planning to retire from racing this summer, the BBC has learned.

The 37-year-old amateur fractured two vertebrae when his horse fell in a race at the festival last month.

Barry Potts, a trainer from Strabane in County Tyrone, was the jockey's best man at his wedding:

"I believe he was going to give up after the April meeting at Punchestown, unfortunately this happened," he said.

The annual Punchestown Festival will take place from 23 to 27 April.

"He's ridden over 600 point to point winners, I think he's ridden about 100 on the track as well - he's ridden in a lot of races.

"He got an awful slap on the ground. The horse hit the fence and drove him into the ground. You knew whenever he hit the ground and didn't move, which wasn't like him.

"I saw him taking plenty of falls and he would be hardy, but it was a dead slap he got.

"It is dangerous, there aren't many jobs where an ambulance follows you around. It makes you sick to your stomach, even now thinking about it makes you sick to your stomach."

The amateur jockey remains in hospital after suffering the fall during the Cheltenham Festival last month.

Mr Potts said his friend loved riding horses.

"He would ride horses all day - loved it, wouldn't matter how many horses he had to ride out, he would keep going, he was always very fit," he said.

"All through the summer he would be breaking horses as well."

Mr McNamara has been now told he is paralysed from the neck down.

"Hopefully that's just the worst case scenario that they've given him," Mr Potts said.

"Fingers crossed he'll get something moving. He's pretty strong-minded, he'll be determined."

[Don Johnson]

Nice gesture from O'Leary donating his prize money to a fund for JT.

Anyway, here are the trends for the National from the Aintree update Mark Howard sends out (I have the trends for all the other big races if you want? Don't wanna clog up the thread like TAM before Cheltenham!)

TRENDS:

* 21 of the last 24 winners have been in the HANDICAP PROPER.

* Only 9 of the last 24 winners have carried MORE than 10st 8lb (But 7 of the last 9 have).

* ALL of the last 20 winners have been AGED between 8 & 12.

* EVERY WINNER since 1970 (Gay Trip being the last one) had won over THREE MILES over FENCES beforehand.

* 16 of the last 24 winners had won BEYOND 3m 2f.

* ALL of the last 17 winners have been OFFICALLY RATED at least 136.

* 11 of the last 12 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED between 136 & 153 (NEPTUNE COLLONGES (157) being the exception last year).

* 19 of the last 22 winners had won a race over at least 3m 1f.

* 18 of the last 22 winners had run in the previous 35 days before the National.

* 16 of the last 17 winners had run in the past 49 days (NEPTUNE COLLONGES (56 days) the exception last year).

* ALL of the last 15 winners had run at LEAST 10 times over fences.

* 15 of the last 22 winners had run at LEAST 14 times over fences (including PTPs).

* Only 5 of the last 20 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL beforehand.

* Only 2 of the last 22 winners had FALLEN in the season of their victory (NUMBERSIXVALVERDE was BROUGHT DOWN during his National winning season in 2008).

* Only 3 of the last 22 winners had raced MORE than 6 times that season.

* Only 6 of the last 22 winners started longer than 16/1.

* Only 3 times has a WEIGHT in excess of 11st been carried to victory since 1983 (Hedgehunter (2005), Don't Push It (2010) & Neptune Collonges (2012).

* 15 of the last 22 winners were running over the NATIONAL FENCES for the FIRST TIME.

* 12 of the last 21 winners had WON or been PLACED in one of the major NATIONALS (ie. IRISH, MIDLANDS, SCOTTISH or WELSH).

* 19 of the last 21 winners had won a race containing at least 14 runners.

* There have only been 3 winners in the last 20 years in their first season OUTSIDE NOVICE COMPANY.

* Only 3 FAVOURITES have won in the last 20 years (COMPLY OR DIE was Joint Favourite in 2008 & DON'T PUSH IT in 2010).

* Only 2 of the 134 FRENCH BREDS to have run in the race during the last 19 years has won (MON MOME (2009) & NEPTUNE COLLONGES (2012) – but 2 in the last 4 years.

* The 151 horses to wear HEADGEAR (ie. Blinkers, Visors, Cheekpieces) in the last 19 years have produced 2 winners and 7 places.

* There were 6 IRISH TRAINED WINNERS between 1999 & 2007 but none since.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Teaforthree ticks a lot of boxes for me albeit that he falls foul of the second season chaser stat above. Also like Imperial Commander. First Lieutenant is striking me as the value at 3s for the Bowl (Silviniaco Conti evens) while I think Thousand Stars looks a big each way price for the Aintree hurdle given the fact that he's been laid out for Liverpool and was only touched off on the line in both 2011 and 2012.

PS- Hands up if you enjoyed my detailed and informative Cheltenham research.