The Horse racing thread

[Donnellys Hollow]

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham

Don't be surprised if the cross country race is frozen off.

[redcard]

Enjoying these discussions just as much as the races. Keep them coming. No doubt they will be quoted next week. Know nothing about horses myself but John joe usually gets a winner along with jp and of course the pipes. As the week goes on if they remain winless then they are worth studying more and more.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Soft ground all over now. Don't be surprised to see some horses rerouted to different race and I expect one or two jockeys might be switching rides particularly in the novice events.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Looked bottomless at Sandown today. Soft should play into the Hurricane's hands DH? Could imagine My Tent or Yours revelling in those conditions as well given his Newbury run.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Looked bottomless at Sandown today. Soft should play into the Hurricane's hands DH? Could imagine My Tent or Yours revelling in those conditions as well given his Newbury run.

It won't do him any harm anyway. It will definitely hinder Rock On Ruby and Grandouet.

I'm not sure if it will suit My Tent Or Yours. If he's free early on he won't get home in soft ground. It's really going to suit the stayers like Un Atout. Puffin Billy is going to be rerouted from the longer race and Walsh is going to ride Champagne Fever now instead of the Nicholls horse. The softer the ground, the better chance those horses have.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Have been keeping a few notes for the festival which might be of use to one or two. Just press clippings of the odd horse I fancy, some tweets from Cheltenham previews and my own notes from the Belfast preview. Apologies if this is clogging up the thread but hopefully they'll be helpful to some.


Cheltenham notes

Old stager Albertas Run will be back to challenge for a third Ryanair Chase but did not exactly inspire in last weekend's racecourse gallop at Kempton.

"He's just okay," O'Neill said.

"All being well, he'll run, and he's healthy, but is he as enthusiastic?"

The other runner in the showpiece races could be the enigmatic Get Me Out Of Here, last seen when pulled up on Boxing Day.

O'Neill said: "He's in the Coral Cup and the World Hurdle, we haven't decided which way to go but I'd like to try him over three miles again and we might well go down the stayers' route."


@middlemiss99: Panel - Jezki for the majority over MTOY. Fav's have a woeful record in Sup Nov and ground and track not to MTOY liking. D Bullets ew value.

@middlemiss99: J Quinn CH Tricast - ROR, CWF & Zark. Thinks CWF is better today than at Donny and will be better again at Chelts. But reckons ROR the one.

@middlemiss99: 2 long shots put up. For Non Stop for the Ryanair and Get Me Off Here in which ever race (hcap) he turns up in. #Cheltenham

@middlemiss99: Panels best bets for the week. JQ - Silv Conti for the GC. DC - Bathwick Brave of the Cond Jock Hrdle. SQ - Aup Charlie for the Jewson.

@middlemiss99: JQ - Our Connor. NH - Revo D'estraval for the 4 Mile Hunt. RJ - Captain Connan for the Jewson and its one of there biggest laid horses too.

@KOM_GGRacing: The last horse to win the Gold Cup on the back of one run that season was Garrison Savannah in 91' for Jenny and Mark Pitman.

"We're very happy with him and he's had two very good runs at Cheltenham this year," Elliott told At The Races.

"Obviously ground is the key to him, there has to be good in it and he likes Cheltenham.

"The plan has been the novice handicap chase, we'll put cheek pieces on him, he's in good form and we're looking forward to it.

"We sent him there (Cheltenham) earlier in the season for experience and he ran a very good race against Dynaste and was upsides at the second last, but we didn't knock him around when it was obvious he would be beat.

"He's got loads of experience round there, which is important, and he seems to like it.

"We sent him to Dundalk to wake him up a bit as he's a bit of an old pet around the place now so we just wanted to open him up.

"We had him as a three-year-old. He's a Cheltenham winner so if he never did another thing he wouldn't owe us anything, but I'll be surprised if he's not in the money."

Carlito Brigante is the general 8/1 favourite for the race on March 12.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Tom Segal says you can't back MTOY @ 6/4 in Supreme
John tips MR @ 10/1
Henry gives Champagne Fever a big shout.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Tom Segal opposes Hurricane Fly and really likes Rock On Ruby.
@nickluck disagrees strongly. "Hurricane Fly will win the Champion Hurdle".

@Emmet_Kennedy: Mick Fitz and Jessica Harrington are talking up Pont Alex. Tom Segal thinks
Taquin Du Seuil is one of the best bets of the #cheltfest

@Emmet_Kennedy: Panel in agreement that Dyaste will be very hard to beat.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Davy Russell says Moyle Park doesn't run in the Champion Bumper. Goes for the Landrover. He's heard Clondaw Court is Mullins best runner.

@Emmet_Kennedy: @nickluck Likes Union Dues in the Champion Bumper. Davy Russell endorses his selection.
Doesn't rate the English challenge.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Davy Russell picks Liz Doyles
Le Vent D'Antan and says "he was not for sale for any price".

@Emmet_Kennedy: Davy Russell "No word of lie, there's no decision on First Lieutenant's race". Worked this morning under Brian Cooper.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Tom Segal – Get Me Out Of Here is a great price for the World Hurdle. A cracking each way bet. #cheltfest

@Emmet_Kennedy: Nick Luck likes Smad Place @ 20/1 for the World Hurdle and Mick Fitz agrees. Mick says "Its worrying that I agree with Nick".

@Emmet_Kennedy: Francome rates At Fishers Cross very highly in the AB. The one to beat.
Tom Segal tips African Gold.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Davy says Sir Des Champs is his best ever chance of winning a Gold Cup.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Sir Des Champ put on loads of condition, has been trained all season for this race.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Mike Cattermole can't have Long Run. Tips Bobs Worth and so does Mick Fitz.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Tom Segal thinks its a coin flip between SDC and BW.

@Emmet_Kennedy: The panel is split and its 50/50 for Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth.
@hayleyladbrokes tips SC #GoldCup

(Tom Segal sided with SDC)

@Emmet_Kennedy: Handicap selections: Alderwood is tipped by Mike and Henry

Mick says @PFNicholls has plotted up Saphirdeu for the Fred Winter.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Jessica Harrington tips Tennis Cap who goes for the County Hurdle and her horse Bostons Angel in the Cross Country.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Tom Segal tips Donald McCains Super Duty with Derek O'Connor booked to ride.

@Emmet_Kennedy: Charity Bets
Mike - Zarkander
Henry - Sizing Europe
Mick - Dynaste
@hayleyladbrokes - Pont Alex
@nickluck - Module in the Jewson

@KOM_GGRacing: Glam Gerry will win whatever handicap he goes for at the festival. Probably the Byrne Group. He'll win.

@FrankelTheGreat: I highlighted Attaglance a while ago as a possible plot horse. It looks like the plan is working. Due to run off 133 in the Pulteney....

@FrankelTheGreat: ...yet actually won the Martin Pipe Conditional off 139 last year. Also won at Aintree off 144. He's now rated 22lbs lower over fences.

Belfast preview

Supreme

Hoiles- mtoy not value, campaigned on flat tracks.  Lay mtoy. Dodging bullets leading chance

Graham- take on all short priced favourites. Dodging Bullets, form on both ground, 6 runs over hurdles. Mtoy not been to Chelt.

Couch- not steaming into mtoy. Back Melodic Redevous.

Paddy Wilmott- favourite short. dodging Bullets gave 7 lb to river maigue in november. Bullets improved horse- looks the value. Take on mtoy.

Gordon Elliott - mozoltov e / w

Gary o'Brien - medolic

Arkle

Couch- Simonsig- work is top notch,   will outstay Overturn. Not having Oscars Well. Arvika too slow. Overturn and simonsig miles ahead. Simonsig will win. Gary agrees.

Gordon- Overturn flying. Might set race up for Simonsig. Think Simonsig has too much. Arvika won't go, conan no chance, top 2.

Paddy wilmott- 4/5 favourite a steal, should be 1/2, absolute certainty. 4/5 a gift

Richard Hoiles- Overturn has had everything his own way. Arvika may take him on. Simonsig the winner.

Brian Graham- Irish don't have too much to offer. Overturn will get closer to simonsig than people think. Overturn more value

Champion Hurdle

Richard Hoilies- RoR hasn't got the credit he deserves. Should stick with him. Hurricane no value. Zarkandar a stayer, would prefer new course. No frontrunner. Ruby will ride HF closer. Grandeout very delicate.

Brian Graham- top price Hurricane. Hard to knock Hurricane. Can only beat what's in front of him. 2 runs at chelt were 5 or 6 lbs behind his best. Likes Zarkandar, more value

Paddy Wilmott- Hurricane hard to price- about 2/1.    Never travelling last year. Good chance but no bet race. Zarkandar a stayer, wants softer ground. RoR not the same horse he was last year. Grandeout- poor preparation. Binocular needs good ground.

Gordon- Hurricane not getting younger. Might struggle. Cinders and Ashes if ground dries. No bet.

Gary- grandeout might be one.

Couch- Grandeout- form very good. RoR not same horse. Grandeout will beat Zarkandar. Go for grandeout.

Neptune

Gordon- rate Pont Alexandre very highly, as good a novice as I've seen in a long time. Pont needs to do something stupid to get beat. Mouse's horse will chase him home. Gary agrees.

Paddy- 5/2 a good price for Pont alexandre. Likely to start 6/4. Willie rates this higher than Mikael 5 and fiveforthree. Favourite hard to beat

Richard- McCoy riding Taquin De soiul. The New One, possibly too many races- tough prep.

Couch- Pont alexandre, nap of the week. Aeroplane. Can't have The New One. Rule the world follows Pont home. Pont could go off 5/4. Mullins great record.

Brian Graham- stronger race than people give it credit for. Rule the World e/w.

RSA

Paddy- dynaste done nothing wrong but ground a worry if it dries up. RSA usually won by a real stayer. Fletham winners bad record. Lyreen Legend may stay well, thinks he'll reverse form with Boston Bob.  Houblon may stay on. Don't fancy Boston Bob.

Richard Hoilies- Dynaste beaten a long way out in world hurdle last year, may go backwards during the season. Boston Bob may want 4 miles. Houblon, good chances. Hadrian's Approach has a chance- big prices.

Couch- on Houblon Des Obeaux (3 on that)- running over wrong trips, massively overpriced. Can't have dynaste. Don't think irish novice chasers very good.

Gordon- Boston bob or back in focus- either wins 4 miler. Drynaste or unionste.

Champion Chase

Couch- SS, 7/2 by over 15 lengths. Barry will push him out to win, could be 15 lengths.

Richard - possibly somersby e/w may be ridden for second

Brian- SS, wishfull thinking w/o ss

Bumper

Gary- Golantilla didn't work well yesterday. Blackmail did work well.

Gordon- tipped Blackmail, needs good ground. Few quid e/w. Geraghty on Blackmail

Paddy- likes Blackmail. Smashing each way value. Golantilla negative to change stables during season. Regal encore from england.

Richard- not emperical. Johnny Og. Haven't seen a good bumper horse

Couch- clondaw court non runner. Blackmail. Blackmail one to back, will shorten.

Ronan Graham- Union Dubh.

World Hurdle

Gordon- very trappy, ground dries- oscar has a good chance.

Paddy- geraghty thought oscar didn't travel well in cleeve. Reve de Sivola needs soft ground. Upset here- Smad Place and Trustan Times each way. Smad Place bet of the week each way.

Richard- biggest ante post position, 4/1 nrnb quevega. Bet to nothing. Smad Place e/w. Front of the market vulnerable.

Couch- oscar best horse in the race. Couldn't back Smad Place, two terrible runs this season. Can't have monksland.

Ronan Graham- Quevega, why not go? Oscar doesn't stay. Reve de sivola may drift on the day. JP's boys have had a few quid each way on get me out of here.

Triumph

Ronan- our conor worthy favourite but looking to take on. Keep far west onside

Couch- not certain our conor gets home. Great race for favourites. Far west or rolling star. Going for rolling star.

Gordon- our Conor

Paddy- our conor mightn't stay. Far West needs it soft. Rolling star good horse.

Richard- since Fred Winter, 7 of 8 winners in front 3 in the market. Rolling Star right profile.

Gold Cup

Richard- average renewal last year. Last year's novices will hold sway. Young horses. First lieutenant didn't stay, ride in Hennessey was too aggressive. If he was there, overpriced. Sir Des champs jumping not the same since Punchestown. FL at the price. Bob's worth missed his prep. Gary agrees.

Paddy- worries SDC might make mistakes if taken out of comfort zone, will have to jump better. Doubts over Jewson form. Pass SDC over. Like Bob's Worth. Open race. Silvanco Conti no form at cheltenham. Why didn't he run in last year's RSA? Can't have Long run. Back bobs worth if had to.

Gordon- Willie's training SDC for one race but jumping not as good. Captain chris each way. Wouldn't worry about Bob's Worth not getting his prep.

Couch- Big Bob's Worth fan. First Lieutenant's stamina gave out in hennessey, won't get home in gold cup. Worked with Binocular, great bit of work. Massive chance. Captain chris- no. Silviniaco Conti- flat track horse, can't have him. Two horse race. Sticking with bob's worth

Ronan Graham- against SDC. Bob's Worth is bomb proof. Maybe Imperial Commander or Giant Bolster. Think Bob's Worth should be 6/4. Class horse in the race.

Jewson, Ryanair

Couch- Jewson- keen on captain conan, good work with simonsig, fancy him.

Paddy- captain conan good chance. Module- good word for him.

Richard- list of 5 for handicaps, poquelin in byrne plate 33s. Needs ground, dropped 11 pounds. Definitely shorter on day. Good mark. Biggest value. Fruity O'rooney 16s. Battle group pulney land if gets in 33s

Knockara Beau- pertemps. Placed off higher mark few years ago.

Petit Zig- fred winter.

Paddy- salsify, foxhunters, one of the bets of the meeting. Good thing. Also fruity o'rooney in jlt. Mary king in 4 miler. Inis Island. Green Belt Elite- 25s, couple of races. Pendel, one of Jps.

Gordon- struggle to get fancied ones in. Carlito good chance. Toner each way (not that keen). Bon Island if get into martin Pipe. Salsify. Counsel.

Gary echos Salisfy. Alderwood last race of meeting.

Couch- Novice handicap- druids nephew.

Ronan- mtoy bismarck. Uncle Junior for cross country, big chance. Bob's worth nap.

Gary- ballycasey, bad bet in albert bartlett.

Top jockey

Richard- geraghty good bet top jockey 5/4

Gordon- townend 50s 66s

Paddy- first lieutenant wins ryanair if he runs. Guaranteed first 3. Cracking bet. Couch agrees.

Shayen

Best Bets

Richard-  poquelin 33s byrne group, if ground no worse than good to soft. 155 good mark.

Paddy- simonsig and salsify double smad pace.

Gordon- pont alexandre pick of week. Bon island

Gary- back in focus 4 mile.

Couch- pont alexandre

Ronan- bob's worth certainty for gold cup. Nap- champagne fever.

Betfair preview

Nicholls very confident about Far West on the triumph but even more sweet on Sam winner in pertemps who has a great mark

Couch very sweet on Champagne Fever in the Albert Bartlett but nrnb as owner may insist it goes to the supreme.

Sandown Preview

@claimsfive: McCoy says the ground is not a negative for My Tent Or Yours in the Supreme but says it will be good news for Champagne Fever

@claimsfive: Ruby Walsh will ride Champagne Fever in the Supreme, says Paul Nicholls. His own Dodging Bullets "worked great" this morning

@claimsfive: Henderson says his only concern re My Tent is the final hill, "different to anything he's done before"

@claimsfive: Henderson is pressed + pressed by Nick Luck to express a preference for one of his in the Champion. Eventually goes for Binocular...

@claimsfive: McCoy puts in a good word for Goulanes in RSA because he stays so well. "This race will be won by an out-and-out stayer"

@claimsfive: Henderson says Riverside Theatre didn't win the Ryanair last year, Barry Geraghty did. But hopes RT is back to his best for this year's race

@claimsfive: Nicholls says Ruby Walsh has committed to Wonderful Charm in the World Hurdle. Reports RW told him Quevega won't run

@claimsfive: McCoy says Get Me Out Of Here would have had a chance in the World on good but doesn't fancy him on soft. Solwhit the value, he says

@claimsfive: Henderson says he's "not particularly" looking forward to Oscar Whisky this week. Drier ground would have helped "close the gap" on RDS

@claimsfive: McCoy on Triumph: "The top 3 look head and shoulders above the rest. If I had to pick one, Far West"

@claimsfive: Henderson on Sir Des Champs: "Watching him in Ireland, I did think his jumping was a bit slipshod". Thinks he wants better ground

@claimsfive: McCoy says Sir Des Champs a better horse on better ground, which is why First Lieutenant might yet run in the Gold Cup

@claimsfive: Nicholls says Irish horses have "a fair bit to do" in Gold Cup, from Tidal Bay / Bobs Worth form

@claimsfive: Paul Nicholls reports Ruby Walsh "very sweet" on Saphir Du Rheu. His best bet is Sam Winner in the Pertemps

@claimsfive: Andy Stewart best bet: Saphir Du Rheu in the Fred Winter, £500 win

@claimsfive: McCoy says Alfie Sherrin needs a decent surface + may not run this week, the owner told him today

@claimsfive: Henderson best bet: Rolling Star in the Triumph. Handicapper: Ma Filleule in the Martin Pipe. Not definite to make the cut yet

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Champagne Fever. I can't quite work this out. The Morning Line were doing a piece from Mullins' yard this morning which was recorded about a week and a half ago (first clip shown last week). When it came to Champagne Fever, there was no quote from Willie, just a VoiceOver from channel 4 stating that he goes for the Supreme. Suggests to me that the piece they had done with Mullins was on the basis of CF running in the Albert Bartlett. He ran over 2m 2 and 2m 4 in his last couple of runs so clearly there was a plan at some stage to step him up in trip. This seems like the owner making a decision over Willie's head (no entry in Neptune). We know the form of these bumper horses in the supreme is dodgy (dunguib and cue card) so why is Ruby riding Champagne Fever, the 6th favourite when he also has the option of the 3rd or 4th favourite. Strange.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Champagne Fever. I can't quite work this out. The Morning Line were doing a piece from Mullins' yard this morning which was recorded about a week and a half ago (first clip shown last week). When it came to Champagne Fever, there was no quote from Willie, just a VoiceOver from channel 4 stating that he goes for the Supreme. Suggests to me that the piece they had done with Mullins was on the basis of CF running in the Albert Bartlett. He ran over 2m 2 and 2m 4 in his last couple of runs so clearly there was a plan at some stage to step him up in trip. This seems like the owner making a decision over Willie's head (no entry in Neptune). We know the form of these bumper horses in the supreme is dodgy (dunguib and cue card) so why is Ruby riding Champagne Fever, the 6th favourite when he also has the option of the 3rd or 4th favourite. Strange.

I think they've made the right choice. There's no doubt he's a horse who will be a staying chaser in the long term but this race is always a stamina test and there will be a further premium on stamina this year in the likely ground. In the last fifteen years, three future Gold Cup winners have finished second in it (Best Mate, Kicking King and War Of Attrition). Sprinter Sacre got beaten in it when Al Ferof outstayed them all and so did Binocular when Captain Cee Bee saw the trip out strongly. The winner of this race has to stay well and few will be staying on better at the end then Champagne Fever. He's not my idea of a bet in it but he has form that gives him a chance. He gamely won the bumper last year so we know he handles the track. He then went on to beat Melodic Rendezvous at Punchestown and a lot of people are talking him up as a big player here. He doesn't have a great deal of ground to make up on Jezki from the Royal Bond either and I don't think that race was run to suit.

Russell was always going to ride Un Atout so Walsh had a straight choice with Dodging Bullets. I could be totally wrong but I have a hunch that he's a soft horse. He was frustrating on the flat for Kevin Prendergast and the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle is fairly worthless. I'll be shocked if he wins on Tuesday.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Champagne Fever. I can't quite work this out. The Morning Line were doing a piece from Mullins' yard this morning which was recorded about a week and a half ago (first clip shown last week). When it came to Champagne Fever, there was no quote from Willie, just a VoiceOver from channel 4 stating that he goes for the Supreme. Suggests to me that the piece they had done with Mullins was on the basis of CF running in the Albert Bartlett. He ran over 2m 2 and 2m 4 in his last couple of runs so clearly there was a plan at some stage to step him up in trip. This seems like the owner making a decision over Willie's head (no entry in Neptune). We know the form of these bumper horses in the supreme is dodgy (dunguib and cue card) so why is Ruby riding Champagne Fever, the 6th favourite when he also has the option of the 3rd or 4th favourite. Strange.

I think they've made the right choice. There's no doubt he's a horse who will be a staying chaser in the long term but this race is always a stamina test and there will be a further premium on stamina this year in the likely ground. In the last fifteen years, three future Gold Cup winners have finished second in it (Best Mate, Kicking King and War Of Attrition). Sprinter Sacre got beaten in it when Al Ferof outstayed them all and so did Binocular when Captain Cee Bee saw the trip out strongly. The winner of this race has to stay well and few will be staying on better at the end then Champagne Fever. He's not my idea of a bet in it but he has form that gives him a chance. He gamely won the bumper last year so we know he handles the track. He then went on to beat Melodic Rendezvous at Punchestown and a lot of people are talking him up as a big player here. He doesn't have a great deal of ground to make up on Jezki from the Royal Bond either and I don't think that race was run to suit.

Russell was always going to ride Un Atout so Walsh had a straight choice with Dodging Bullets. I could be totally wrong but I have a hunch that he's a soft horse. He was frustrating on the flat for Kevin Prendergast and the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle is fairly worthless. I'll be shocked if he wins on Tuesday.

Forgot Un Atout was Gigginstown. Still tempted by Dodging Bullets, should handle the ground and the two he beat home at Christmas aren't absolute no hopers in the Champion.

[maddog]

DH or anyone else - What do any of you make to Bog Warrior in the world hurdle ? Could you see him being the sort that could gallop away in that race and put a good few in the red after 2 and half miles ?

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

He's one that interests me maddog. Clearly hurdling has very much been a last resort as he didn't run over timber between winning his maiden and falling at Down Royal in November. If its soft, that's a negative for Oscar whiskey so Reve De Sivola sets the standard. RDS has solid form this year but I don't think it takes a massive leap of faith to suggest that there could be one better in a feature grade one at the festival. I fancied Get Me Out of Here but McCoy advises that he can't do it on soft. So if Bog Warrior is a confirmed runner Thursday morning and the ground is living up to his name, I suspect I'll have a bit each way.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Only one race in Bog Warrior's career where he hasn't either won or fallen.

[Donnellys Hollow]

I like Bog Warrior. The yard is obviously in good form and the switch back to hurdling seems to have made a man of him.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Great selection of enhanced favourites with Ladbrokes until 11am. Includes 9/4 Pont Alexandre and evens on Quevega.

[ardchieftain]

The soft going has meant i've had to revise my selections. For the first time i've not bothered with ante post bets as i've been stung too many times.

1.30 Taking on the fav. with Un Atout, should be thereabouts and hopefully can stay on up the hill to win

2.05 Was all set to back overturn but the soft going has changed my mind. Simonsig should win

2.40 Like the look of Fruity O'Rooney and Merry King. Was all set for the former but now that Merry King has plumped for this race over the 4 miler it has brought too many doubts to mind. Might opt for both

3.20 I am a huge fan of Hurricane Fly and with a much smoother prep this year i fully expect him to win

4.00 A real puzzle. can't have last year's winner on soft ground. Looking at Outlaw Pete and Bostons Angel, will opt for one when i get another look at the form.

4.40 Quevega

5.15 Haven't even looked at the race and will only have a bet if i'm in profit for the day.

If anyone can pick holes in my selections, please do, there is always some info overlooked.

Can't wait for the festival to start. It would be nice to make some profit for a change though! Haven't made more than beer money profit since the 4th day was added.

Let battle commence..................