The Horse racing thread

[sammymaguire]

three I might have a flutter on this avo

2.20 Lingfield - Talbot Green
3.25 Lingfield - Addikt 
3.50 Wetherby - Kilkenny All Star

I fecking missed KK AS today!! 

[boojangles]

Hardy have you put up your by now legendary stats for the National tomorrow? 
I remember getting Comply or Die in 2008 from your stats and I think I'v got a few places from you over the years.

[the greatest jockey]

really like dessie hughes runners tomorrow, black apalachi has been shafted by the handicapper not being dropped after nearly two years out. Vic venturi might not be the same horse but finished third at punchestown last may in the g1 chase won by follow the plan who won the g1 at aintree yesterday. Now right at the bottom of the weights and over 100 on betfair. Rare bob dropping down the weights too. Admirable shout to organised confusion as well

[Hardy]

Hardy have you put up your by now legendary stats for the National tomorrow? 
I remember getting Comply or Die in 2008 from your stats and I think I'v got a few places from you over the years.

I'm not planning to look at the stats for the National at all, Boojangles. They've been a little less than legendary for the last few years. The handicapper has thrown out the rule book for the National and the stats that stood the test of years just don't hold up any more, with horses humping big weights around to win, horses that weren't good enough one year turning up to win it the next and so on. A new set of stats will emerge in a few years, probably.

I don't know what I'm backing till I stick the pin  in the paper.

[Sea The Stars]

There's something a bit odd about Planet of Sound's rating. Second in the Hennessy off 158 and runs off 156 today? That's quite leniant considering he's only run once since the Hennessy (nd put up an equally respectable performance). He's also won a Haldon Gold Cup and a Punchestown Gold Cup, and has been placed in an Arkle and as well as chasing home Imperial Commander and Kauto Star in the 2010 Betfair Chase. He's a sound enough jumper and he's kept on improving with each step up in trip. I won't go as far as to say he's thrown in but he's certainly nicely handicapped and Johnson and Hobbs must be quietly fancying their chances of a first National.

[Hardy]

OK – I couldn't stop myself. I ran the runners through the following set of stats, which try to take account of recent trends as well as longer term ones (e.g. relative rather than absolute weights, highly rated horses winnning recently).

Age 8-11   10/10
Age 9-10   8/10
No more than a stone heavier than bottom weight   10/10
Rated 144 or higher   Last 3
Irish Bred   9/10
Price 20/1or less   8/10
Won a chase worth 29K+   10/10
Won over 3M+   10/10
Ran in last 50 days   10/10
Ran over hurdles this season   8/10
Posted highest RPR left handed   9/10
Posted RPR of 140+ on one of last 3 chase starts   10/10

Five runners meet 11 of the twelve criteria:
Seabass
Chicago Grey
Organised Confusion
Sunnyhillboy
Killyglen

Five more tick ten of the twelve boxes:
Synchronised
Junior
Shakalakaboomboom
West End Rocker
Becauseicouldntsee


Applying weighting and scoring them accordingly doesn't do a whole lot to separate them, but here's how it comes out:

Seabass          38.61
Chicago Grey          38.49
Organisedconfusion          37.89
Sunnyhillboy          37.89
Killyglen          37.89
West End Rocker          35.61
Synchronised          35.01
Junior           34.85
Shakalakaboomboom          34.09
Becauseicouldntsee          34.09
Always Right          32.46
Rare Bob          32.04
According To Pete          31.97
Weird Al          31.86
Cappa Bleu          31.81
Arbor Supreme          31.54
BallaBriggs          31.41
The Midnight Club          30.94
Calgary Bay          28.86
Planet of Sound          28.82
On His Own          28.41
Treacle          28.41
Giles Cross          28.41
Alfa Beat          27.72
Tharawaat          27.34
Vic Venturi          25.26
Mon Mome          25.02
In Compliance          23.34
Neptune Collonges          22.22
Tatenen          21.82
Swing Bill          21.42
Midnight Haze          21.42
Neptune Equester          21.42
Black Apalachi          21.04
Hello Bud          20.86
State of Play 3          18.42
Viking Blond          18.42
Deep Purple          18.20
Postmaster          18.00
Quiscover Fontaine          17.30


As I said, this comes with a health warning, but I can't help doing a small each way dutch on the top five. The good news for me is that Seabass was my fancy anyway. I've also had a little punt on Alpha Beat at 170(!), 26 for the place as a fancied outsider who has been aimed at this for two years (though he wouldn't be alone in that).

[ThroughTheLaces]

Would anybody have any links for watching this outside of Ireland and UK?

[amallon]

Paddypower.com has crashed. 

[el_cuervo_fc]

Would anybody have any links for watching this outside of Ireland and UK?

http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/118903/1/watch-aintree-the-grand-national.html

[ThroughTheLaces]

Cheers el Cuervo thanks for that!

[Hardy]

An awful fall for Ruby in the hurdle. Amazingly, he walked away. How do you survive a ton of horse landing on top of you?

[Milltown Row2]

Went for Killyglen and the picked 2 for the wife, Alway right and Always waining!!!

[Hardy]

Just announced Ruby is stood down for the day.

[Captain Obvious]

Paddypower.com has crashed.

Loads of cash lost with that crash. Any tips?

[Franko]

Betfair has also crashed on me now...