Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[Owen Brannigan]

Newry & Armagh election results 2017 on 69.4% turnout.

SDLP   8,983
SF   26,532
DUP   9,760
UUP   7,256
AP   1,418
CISTA   704
GP   265

No worries for SF here.

[armaghniac]

The chat of pacts is as depressing as it was two years ago. Tom Elliott is a gobshite of the highest order and a few on here have personal reasons to despise him but it matters not a jot whether it's him or Gildernew elected. If themmuns get to have their wee moment again, best just to laugh - Elliott is a joke.

I think it does matter, if Elliot is going around stating that people in Fermanagh welcome Brexit then that is doing damage.

Brexit is happening regardless - what he says or does (or doesn't do) will have negligible real impact for the constituents. In my opinion of course

Brexit is happening, but the devil is in the detail. The EU and even the British have made noises about the border here, the last thing we want is Elliot standing up in Westminster opposing practical arrangements out of bigotry.

[Owen Brannigan]

Upper Bann election results 2017 on 62.5% turnout.

DUP   16,885
UUP   10,599
TUV   1,035
SDLP   5,127
SF   14,328
WP   218
AP   2,720
Con   81
GP   555

No worries for DUP here.

[Owen Brannigan]

South Antrim election results 2017

DUP   14,278
TUV   1,353
UUP   6,287
SDLP   4,024
SF   6,891
AP   5,278
CON   194
GP   501
IND   503
PBP   530

No worries for DUP.

[Owen Brannigan]

North Antrim election results 2017

DUP   19,540
TUV   7,719
UUP   6,022
SDLP   3,519
SF   7,600
AP   2,616
IND   435
IND   113
GP   530

DUP romp home again.

[Owen Brannigan]

East Antrim election results 2017

DUP   13,164
UUP   8,498
TUV   1,534
UKIP   1,579
AP   5,996
SDLP   1,524
SF   3,701
CON   152
GP   777
IND   106
LAB   393

DUP again

[Owen Brannigan]

North Belfast election results 2017

DUP   13,309   
UUP   2,418   
PUP   2,053   17,780
AP   3,487   
SF   12,204   17,635
SDLP   5,431   
PBP   1,559   
GP   711   
WP   248   
IND   66   

A unionist pact of UUP, DUP and PUP would produce 17,780 while SDLP and SF could muster 17,635 votes.  Where the AP and PBP votes will go is the question.

This could manage to unseat Dodds which would be a major coup for any nationalist or Brexit alliance.

[Owen Brannigan]

West Belfast election results 2017

SF   24,931
PBP   5,999
DUP   4,063
SDLP   3,452
AP   747
UUP   486
WP   415
GP   251

Can SF crush PBP and SDLP?

[Owen Brannigan]

South Belfast election results 2017

SDLP   8,353   15,963
SF   7,610   
AP   7,648   
DUP   8,975   
TUV   703   
UUP   3,863   13,541
GP   4,247   
PBP   760   
WP   163   
CON   200   
LAB   531   

There are at least 13,541 votes in a unionist pact with some more possible from Alliance but a SDLP SF pact could bring in 15,963 votes.  Again Alliance votes are unpredictable as are the GP votes. Care needs to be taken not to turn this area over to a unionist pro Brexit MP but McDonnell is a vote loser as the sitting MP and his own local party despises him.
   

[Owen Brannigan]

East Belfast election results 2017

AP   12,669   
DUP   15,167   
TUV   917   
UUP   5,275   
PUP   2,658
GP   1,447   
SF   1,173   
IND   84   
LAB   442   
SDLP   250   
CON   275   

DUP can win this alone but definitely with the UUP, TUV, PUP giving 24,017.

Can Alliance mount a challenge without Long as the candidate?

[Owen Brannigan]

North Down election results 2017

DUP   14,152
UUP   8,115
AP   7,014
SDLP   679
SF   591
IND   1,246
IND   92
IND   31
CON   641
   
   
   
Election result 2010   
S Hermon   17,689
DUP   8,487
Alliance   3,086
Green   1,958
Con   1,593
UKIP   1,482
TUV   686
SDLP   355
CISTAP   338
SF   273

Sylvia Hermon commands a strong personal vote which takes from AP, DUP and UUP.  Capable of holding again.

[seafoid]

Are MLAs more important than the MPs in the big scheme of things ?

[Rois]

SDLP/SF pact anyone?? Although it won't be called that.  Can't see Alliance getting involved in this.  Can you imagine East Belfast?  DUP will have a field day "Naomi Long supported by Gerry Adams" will be some slogan!

In ordinary times I wouldn't be in favour of an SDLP/SF pact, but these are extraordinary times and we/they (the Remain parties) should really do what we/they can to strengthen the NI position in Brexit talks by showing a referendum result, an assembly election result and a Westminster election result that favours the anti-Brexit parties.  For 3 different democratic results to be ignored would be completely anti-democratic.   

[Owen Brannigan]

Strangford election results 2017

DUP   15,492
UUP   7,776
AP   5,813
SDLP   3,045
SF   1,110
TUV   1,330
GP   918
IND   1,627
IND   1,479
CON   195

Not much competition for the dislikable Jim Shannon.

[Owen Brannigan]

Lagan Valley election results 2017

DUP   18,614
UUP   11,338
TUV   1,389
AP   6,105
SDLP   3,795
SF   1,801
GP   912
IND   856
IND   76
CON   183

Hard to see any problem for wee Jeff but UUP-DUP relations were polarised in the election by allowing SDLP in instead of third DUP.  There could be a way to unseat Jeff but unlikely to coalesce.