Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[Jim_Murphy_74]

I still think Shinners have boxed themselves in by making Arlene a red line issue. DUP will dig their heels in. Direct rule is much more attractive to them than working to Shinner agenda. Tories will be happy to have their lapdog available throughout Brevity and won't pressure them.

Shinners should play nice, get Assembly back, then push o with legislation.  Language Act,  gay marriage  and anything reasonable will be unstoppable.

Unfortunately I think they have a hostage to fortune with Arlene and a period of direct rule lies ahead. 

/Jim.

[lurganblue]

Will Arlene go? Surely she her arrogance can't go beyond this.

Also, what is the likelihood of Sinn Fein ever taking their seats at Westminster?

This has been a disaster of an election for the DUP. She will be forced out from within.

Has to be. And in fairness, that might be the only measure that actually brings about an agreement to form a government

[Take Your Points]

You have to look at equivalences to see how all fared:

DUP 38 (2016) equals 32 (2017) achieved 28 down by 12.5%

SF 28 (2016) equals 23 (2017) achieved 27 up by 17.4%

UUP 16 (2016) equals 13 (2017) achieved 10 down by 23.1%

SDLP 12 (2016) equals 10 (2017) achieved 12 up by 20%

Alliance 8 (2016) equals 7 (2017) achieved 8 up by 14.3%

[yellowcard]

Foster, by running a campaign based on fear, division and people's emotions has reawakened nationalism/republicanism. She is damaged goods and if she manages to survive (which I don't think she will) it could help the cause of nationalism further given her snarling, condescending personality. The best thing SF can do is to refuse to enter government with her since that will increase the likelihood that she won't go (which will benefit SF) due to her refusal to be seen to bowing their wishes.

[Jim_Murphy_74]

Go online. Read the Newsletter editorial. They are as good as telling Unionists to keep Arlene and go for direct rule.  The bogeyman of Joint Authority died with Tories and Brexit.

/Jim

[Take Your Points]

I still think Shinners have boxed themselves in by making Arlene a red line issue. DUP will dig their heels in. Direct rule is much more attractive to them than working to Shinner agenda. Tories will be happy to have their lapdog available throughout Brevity and won't pressure them.

Shinners should play nice, get Assembly back, then push o with legislation.  Language Act,  gay marriage  and anything reasonable will be unstoppable.

Unfortunately I think they have a hostage to fortune with Arlene and a period of direct rule lies ahead. 

/Jim.

A SF strategy is to have direct rule and run around the back of DUP to demand the two governments implement changes that DUP would block, e.g. language act, UK wide equal marriage, abortion law.  This is chancy given the link between DUP and Theresa May. Much better to go back in and stick it to DUP with the shift in power.  With opposition likely to continue, there is a chance to bring Justice into DeHondt and share the 10 ministries giving no one overall power in the Executive.  But Adams has no interest in constructive politics and can only deal in agitation and protest.

[Take Your Points]

It will be interesting to see how the factions in the DUP deal with the situation, it is a party with severe dividing lines.

[yellowcard]

Go online. Read the Newsletter editorial. They are as good as telling Unionists to keep Arlene and go for direct rule.  The bogeyman of Joint Authority died with Tories and Brexit.

/Jim

Might work for them in the short term, but when they begin to realise the cuts in benefits and further disintegration of the economy it would not be a good long term strategy for them. SF also will be going with a strong mandate for a border poll before any form of direct rule is implemented.

[vallankumous]

There seems to be a strong correlation between Unionist seats and areas with Protestant majorities.

for example , red blue yellow
http://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-2017/east-antrim

versus
green green green green red

http://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-2017/west-tyrone

How many UUP transfers did the SDLP get anyway ?

Yes agreed but it does not allow for the fact that these political parties stand on many issues related to a normal political landscape.
If I'm a protestant unionist I'll vote unionist but I'll vote along social issues and that will not be taken into account.
For example, I might vote TUV for their immigration stance or DUP for their stance on LGBT or UUP for their position on RHI. The fact that they are Unionist just happens to be a bonus but it did not come into my thinking when casting my vote. It's just there and I'd like to be judged on my political stance on a range of issues not by the fact that I'm a protestant living in the east.

I talk politics with many Unionists and we agree and disagree on many issues. They are Unionists, that's a reasonable political position to have. They are also, left, right, green, industrial, agricultural, urban etc. This is what defines their politics and what they like to discuss. Now, if they were to talk to Tommy Gorman he'd not care a jot about any of that.

[Denn Forever]

Heard an interesting stat that there was only 1000 votes be between the nationalist vote and the DUP?  Or are radio Ulster getting there facts wrong?

[armaghniac]

The SF vote was 1000 less than the DUP vote, which marginally saved the DUP further embarrassment.

[vallankumous]

You badly need to read up on European history. Its not all about the six counties. The EU and USA need Greece to be pro Europe and not pro Moscow. Why do you think the Generals rules Greece in the 70s? Poland with its history is the same. Dont be relying on Wojcieh in McDonalds Kings Cross to have any influence on Brexit.
As for Parnell and your FFS comment. Your knowledge of Irish history is as bad as your knowledge of European history.
Dont worry the pubs are opening soon. You can pop down and have a pint while you read The Sun

Yes mum.

[seafoid]

The SF vote was 1000 less than the DUP vote, which marginally saved the DUP further embarrassment.

As Lenin once said ""There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

And demographic parity plus Brexit is similarly weighted with meaning

[Dougal Maguire]

Odious Poots on UTV. Take no shite Michelle!

You know the way that a person's public persona and private persona can differ greatly. Well that's the case with Edwin. I met him a few times when he was a Minister and I can tell you he's even more odious in private than he is in public.

[GJL]

Odious Poots on UTV. Take no shite Michelle!

You know the way that a person's public persona and private persona can differ greatly. Well that's the case with Edwin. I met him a few times when he was a Minister and I can tell you he's even more odious in private than he is in public.

f**k! Is it possible that he could be worse? He knows the writing is on the wall and can't hide his poisonous disgust.