Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[imtommygunn]

Basically the DUP's mantra is "we're not them" which sadly works for a lot of people but they are a party based on nothing but defensiveness and that is it.

Armaghniac i hope you are right. If the DUP petition of concern numbers could be reduced then that if nothing else will be worth it and it is a massive step. I have my doubts though :-(

[Minder]

Don't see any way that the DUP will be below 30

[imtommygunn]

I have my doubts too. That would be massive progress but I have my doubts.

[armaghniac]

Don't see any way that the DUP will be below 30

Why not. The number of seats has been reduced to 90, 30 is one-third of that. The DUP have 26% in the poll, seats are not quite proportional to first preferences, you could add a couple of % for the TUV transfers and so on. But it is hard to see them getting 30, I'd say something like 28. IMHO this one of the reasons SF pulled the plug, if the number seats wasn't reduced they wouldn't have bothered.

[seafoid]

Still pretty depressing reading for nationalists. Even including PBP and nationalist independents/others you are getting about 41% a figure nationaists have been stuck at for some 20 yrs. This demographic time bomb well and truly has been declared a hoax

nationalists 41% unionists 45% Others 13%
that's how it is going to be, except in the next election it will be nationalists 42% unionists 44% and so on.

the  demographic time bomb is still ticking. The 60+ aged people who are 60% unionist do turn out at elections, the 18-30 group do not turn out as well.

The DUP may lose out on transfers, the UU is a coalition of between true blues and others who might be annoyed both a RHI and Brexit and whose transfer will go to Alliance and the SDLP.

The important thing is that this will reduce the DUP to below 30, so no petitions of concern without others being involved. And there should be clear majority for common sense on Brexit, notwithstanding the looney left.

in 10 years it will look very different

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Still pretty depressing reading for nationalists. Even including PBP and nationalist independents/others you are getting about 41% a figure nationaists have been stuck at for some 20 yrs. This demographic time bomb well and truly has been declared a hoax

nationalists 41% unionists 45% Others 13%
that's how it is going to be, except in the next election it will be nationalists 42% unionists 44% and so on.

the  demographic time bomb is still ticking. The 60+ aged people who are 60% unionist do turn out at elections, the 18-30 group do not turn out as well.

The DUP may lose out on transfers, the UU is a coalition of between true blues and others who might be annoyed both a RHI and Brexit and whose transfer will go to Alliance and the SDLP.

The important thing is that this will reduce the DUP to below 30, so no petitions of concern without others being involved. And there should be clear majority for common sense on Brexit, notwithstanding the looney left.

I agree with the logic however we had similar figures 20 yrs ago in fact at one election in the early noughties nationalism hit 45% so it quite clearly is stalling. There must be a hell of a lot of 90 yr old unionists voting. Of course in reality young catholics cant be arsed to vote or are voting for others in much greater numbers than protestants. Funny feeling when the numbers actually happen most so called nationalists wont care. Maybe brexit might give them the kick up the arse they need but not sure rampant sectarianism, racism, homophobia, corruption, incompetence etc etc doesnt seem to bother them so not very hopefull

[haranguerer]

Are POC's based on a percentage or fixed number?

[armaghniac]

Are POC's based on a percentage or fixed number?

The number was fixed at 30 and has not been adjusted when the seats were reduced.

[armaghniac]

I agree with the logic however we had similar figures 20 yrs ago in fact at one election in the early noughties nationalism hit 45% so it quite clearly is stalling. There must be a hell of a lot of 90 yr old unionists voting. Of course in reality young catholics cant be arsed to vote or are voting for others in much greater numbers than protestants. Funny feeling when the numbers actually happen most so called nationalists wont care. Maybe brexit might give them the kick up the arse they need but not sure rampant sectarianism, racism, homophobia, corruption, incompetence etc etc doesnt seem to bother them so not very hopefull

The poor turnout is disappointing. However, the 45% was reached in the European election, a first past the post 6 county wide election at a time of marked political progress. The problem with Stormont is that you get much the same regardless of the vote, which is hardly an encouragement to vote. But removing getting the DUP below 30 can lead to some change so is a worthy reason to turn out and vote for everyone else. This issue of pensioners voting is not just an NI thing, it more or less swung the Brexit vote in England. Having nationalist politicians that were some use would help too of course.

[Minder]

Would there still not be a veto as DFM & FM are going to be SF & DUP, in whatever order ?

[seafoid]

Brexit is going to change things because it's the ultra rich in England linking up with their counterparts in the US . and they don't care about Unionism.

"European laws protecting the public interest were portrayed by Conservative Eurosceptics as intolerable intrusions on corporate freedom. Taking back control from Europe means closer integration with the US. The transatlantic special relationship is a special relationship between political and corporate power. That power is cemented by the networks Liam Fox helped to develop."

DUP voters are taken care of in Europe. They won't be under Brexit.

[armaghniac]

Would there still not be a veto as DFM & FM are going to be SF & DUP, in whatever order ?

The only veto they have is to resign.

[omagh_gael]

I'm interested to see how the events in Stormont over the past few months will affect voter turnout. Will it light a fire under people's arses or will it in-fact turn off even more voters?

Had a look through some of the stats in random electoral wards over past three elections. Used the first three wards that came to mind in each 'tradition.' Bear in mind that this isn't a full picture but does highlight why the nationalist vote has stalled over the past ten years. Could this be the election to get the green vote out in much greater numbers or with Arlene 'Crocodile Dundee' Foster's sneering attitude stir up the unionists? Interesting times ahead.

Nationalist dominated areas

West Tyrone

2016 - 59.86%

2011 - 64%

2007 - 71.7%

Drop = 11.84%

Mid ulster

2016 - 58.75%

2011 - 65.35%

2007 - 73.35%

Drop = 14.6%


Newry and Mourne

2016 - 59.32%

2011 - 61.34%

2007 - 70.83%

Drop = 11.51%

Average drop off = 12.65%


Unionist dominated areas

S Antrim

2016 - 51.01%

2011 - 50.06%

2007 - 58.6%

Drop = 7.59%

N Down

2016 - 49.57%

2011 - 45.89%

2007 - 53.77%

Drop = 4.2%

Strangford

2016 - 50.25%

2011 - 48.25%

2007 - 54.5%

Drop = 4.25%

Average drop off = 5.35%

[Take Your Points]

Part of the fall in the voter turnout has been caused by the predictability of the PR system in each area.  If your candidates appear to be able to be elected easily on the previous occasion, the voting can be left to the hardcore support.  If your candidate has little or no hope of being elected what's the point in voting.  The inability to change the government is also a factor with the hardcore DUP-SF sectarian voting blocks ensuring that the returned government is unchanged.  The opposition had little time to fully coalesce and present a unit front even though the RHI scandal was a gift.

Arlene only has to play the orange card to turn out her hardcore supporters and those unable to think it out for themselves. So what if £20m per year is added to the money already decided to be paid to the boiler men, its a tiny fraction of the £10bn block grant.  So, just make sure SF are not given the title of FM even though it is a joint office.  In return, SF have played into the DUP hands by ensuring that Adams remains the bogeyman for the unionist voter.  But that suits them because they can play the green card and try to mobilise the core to keep their dominance of nationalist votes.  This in turn causes a drop in the nationalist vote as non-SF voters decide not to bother to vote as the sectarian game means their vote can be meaningless.

All very depressing.

[drillsergeant]

Jonathan Bell is running as an Independent in Strangford.  Will be interesting to see if his "honesty" has much traction with the DUP heads there.;

Jonathan Bell running as independent is very interesting, whether he will be elected or not, he will definitely take votes from the DUP, after all he only came out an told the truth. He definitely gain transfers from UUP. My first prediction for Strangford was 3DUP 1UUP 1AP. I think I got that wrong!