Author Topic: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017  (Read 58888 times)

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1395 on: April 19, 2017, 04:47:10 PM »
South Belfast election results 2017

SDLP   8,353   15,963
SF   7,610   
AP   7,648   
DUP   8,975   
TUV   703   
UUP   3,863   13,541
GP   4,247   
PBP   760   
WP   163   
CON   200   
LAB   531   

There are at least 13,541 votes in a unionist pact with some more possible from Alliance but a SDLP SF pact could bring in 15,963 votes.  Again Alliance votes are unpredictable as are the GP votes. Care needs to be taken not to turn this area over to a unionist pro Brexit MP but McDonnell is a vote loser as the sitting MP and his own local party despises him.
   

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1396 on: April 19, 2017, 04:57:24 PM »
East Belfast election results 2017

AP   12,669   
DUP   15,167   
TUV   917   
UUP   5,275   
PUP   2,658
GP   1,447   
SF   1,173   
IND   84   
LAB   442   
SDLP   250   
CON   275   

DUP can win this alone but definitely with the UUP, TUV, PUP giving 24,017.

Can Alliance mount a challenge without Long as the candidate?

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1397 on: April 19, 2017, 04:58:24 PM »
Colum Eastwood - "We’re open to any discussion about how we can protect the remain vote in Northern Ireland, about how we can fight against the anti-Europe MPs and how we can protect against a hard Brexit in this election. We’ll speak to anyone and talk to any individual candidates or parties to see how we can advance that."

SDLP/SF pact anyone?? Although it won't be called that.  Can't see Alliance getting involved in this.  Can you imagine East Belfast?  DUP will have a field day "Naomi Long supported by Gerry Adams" will be some slogan!

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1398 on: April 19, 2017, 05:07:53 PM »
North Down election results 2017

DUP   14,152
UUP   8,115
AP   7,014
SDLP   679
SF   591
IND   1,246
IND   92
IND   31
CON   641
   
   
   
Election result 2010   
S Hermon   17,689
DUP   8,487
Alliance   3,086
Green   1,958
Con   1,593
UKIP   1,482
TUV   686
SDLP   355
CISTAP   338
SF   273

Sylvia Hermon commands a strong personal vote which takes from AP, DUP and UUP.  Capable of holding again.

seafoid

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1399 on: April 19, 2017, 05:09:54 PM »
Are MLAs more important than the MPs in the big scheme of things ?
Last of the choc-ices there now

Rois

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1400 on: April 19, 2017, 05:13:50 PM »
SDLP/SF pact anyone?? Although it won't be called that.  Can't see Alliance getting involved in this.  Can you imagine East Belfast?  DUP will have a field day "Naomi Long supported by Gerry Adams" will be some slogan!

In ordinary times I wouldn't be in favour of an SDLP/SF pact, but these are extraordinary times and we/they (the Remain parties) should really do what we/they can to strengthen the NI position in Brexit talks by showing a referendum result, an assembly election result and a Westminster election result that favours the anti-Brexit parties.  For 3 different democratic results to be ignored would be completely anti-democratic.   

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1401 on: April 19, 2017, 05:14:17 PM »
Strangford election results 2017

DUP   15,492
UUP   7,776
AP   5,813
SDLP   3,045
SF   1,110
TUV   1,330
GP   918
IND   1,627
IND   1,479
CON   195

Not much competition for the dislikable Jim Shannon.

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1402 on: April 19, 2017, 05:21:07 PM »
Lagan Valley election results 2017

DUP   18,614
UUP   11,338
TUV   1,389
AP   6,105
SDLP   3,795
SF   1,801
GP   912
IND   856
IND   76
CON   183

Hard to see any problem for wee Jeff but UUP-DUP relations were polarised in the election by allowing SDLP in instead of third DUP.  There could be a way to unseat Jeff but unlikely to coalesce.

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1403 on: April 19, 2017, 05:34:09 PM »
South Down election results 2017

SF   19,083
SDLP   12,433
DUP   7,786
AP   4,535
UUP   4,172
TUV   630
GP   483
IND   192
CON   85

Real problems for the difficult to like M Ritchie.  SF made a leap forward by removing the equally difficult to like C Ruane and having a local candidate in Sinead Ennis with strong community connections.  If SF can hold these votes then with the Alliance eating into SDLP votes then it is curtains for Ritchie. 

So much for being the first SDLP person to shout 'no pacts' when only some arrangement can save her seat held by SDLP since 1987 when Eddie O'Grady snatched it from the despicable Enoch Powell.

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1404 on: April 19, 2017, 05:34:29 PM »
SDLP/SF pact anyone?? Although it won't be called that.  Can't see Alliance getting involved in this.  Can you imagine East Belfast?  DUP will have a field day "Naomi Long supported by Gerry Adams" will be some slogan!

In ordinary times I wouldn't be in favour of an SDLP/SF pact, but these are extraordinary times and we/they (the Remain parties) should really do what we/they can to strengthen the NI position in Brexit talks by showing a referendum result, an assembly election result and a Westminster election result that favours the anti-Brexit parties.  For 3 different democratic results to be ignored would be completely anti-democratic.   

I agree with you here Rois.  I'm normally not a big fan of pacts and anyone entering into any sort of "arrangement" with SF would be leaving themselves open to criticism, but the NI MPs are going to be bit part players in the Westminster scene, so some sort of self styled "Progressive Alliance" to maximise the anti-Brexit vote might have some traction.  SF could win FST, SDLP could hang on to S Belfast, Long would go close in Eat Belfast and I think Nichola Mallon would give N Belfast a good rattle.  Would love to see Dodds go the same way as Half Nelson!

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1405 on: April 19, 2017, 05:36:23 PM »
SDLP/SF pact anyone?? Although it won't be called that.  Can't see Alliance getting involved in this.  Can you imagine East Belfast?  DUP will have a field day "Naomi Long supported by Gerry Adams" will be some slogan!

In ordinary times I wouldn't be in favour of an SDLP/SF pact, but these are extraordinary times and we/they (the Remain parties) should really do what we/they can to strengthen the NI position in Brexit talks by showing a referendum result, an assembly election result and a Westminster election result that favours the anti-Brexit parties.  For 3 different democratic results to be ignored would be completely anti-democratic.   

+1

Owen Brannigan

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1406 on: April 19, 2017, 05:42:50 PM »
So, according to the last Assembly poll, SDLP could be left with no MPs.  The fortresses of Foyle and South Down have been breached.  Only the unionists and PBP could save the day for M Durkan in Foyle.  Only an anti SF vote can save M Ritchie.

An anti-Brexit alliance could be achieved but the APNI will struggle to be on the same side as Adams and remain a home for refugees from the collapsing and becoming less relevant UUP.

FST and South Belfast remain the battlegrounds. 

Will the fact that May will gain a huge majority making the DUP irrelevant to her affect how the DUP look on forming pacts as they will become a tiny grouping in the UK parliament with no power?

Rois

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1407 on: April 19, 2017, 05:53:39 PM »

An anti-Brexit alliance could be achieved but the APNI will struggle to be on the same side as Adams and remain a home for refugees from the collapsing and becoming less relevant UUP.
Where exactly would Alliance benefit from an anti-Brexit pact?  Do they really have a hope anywhere except East Belfast?  Surely SF and SDLP would just sit that out anyway without it being called a pact.

AQMP

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1408 on: April 19, 2017, 06:00:13 PM »

An anti-Brexit alliance could be achieved but the APNI will struggle to be on the same side as Adams and remain a home for refugees from the collapsing and becoming less relevant UUP.
Where exactly would Alliance benefit from an anti-Brexit pact?  Do they really have a hope anywhere except East Belfast?  Surely SF and SDLP would just sit that out anyway without it being called a pact.

They could help maximise the vote in somewhere like South Antrim or Lagan Valley.

Avondhu star

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1409 on: April 19, 2017, 07:07:57 PM »
May has shown what the Tories think of anyone outside their own littlle clique. The Natioalists and Unionists can clash all they ike just don't bother London
Los trabadjores unido jamas sera vencido