Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[dec]

Big winners are nationalism and republicanism in particular. Fosters arrogance and condescension coming home to roost even though it didn't hit her own personal vote. Both unionist leaders will be gone by Monday and it is a big momentum swing in Northern politics.

The combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2011 Assembly election was 41.1%, this time it is 39.8%

[yellowcard]

Big winners are nationalism and republicanism in particular. Fosters arrogance and condescension coming home to roost even though it didn't hit her own personal vote. Both unionist leaders will be gone by Monday and it is a big momentum swing in Northern politics.

The combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2011 Assembly election was 41.1%, this time it is 39.8%

Maybe so but I'm basing it on the swing from the last election, republican/nationalist voters had become apathetic and it's likely that Brexit and RHI had a big impact on increasing the voter turnout. PBP would have ate into some of the SF vote since 2011.

[Minder]

Be interesting to see how it goes the next time as there will likely be no RHI type scandal to mobilise nationalist voters from their slumber

[armaghniac]

Be interesting to see how it goes the next time as there will likely be no RHI type scandal to mobilise nationalist voters from their slumber

Brexit is the bigger issue and it will run and run.

[dec]

Big winners are nationalism and republicanism in particular. Fosters arrogance and condescension coming home to roost even though it didn't hit her own personal vote. Both unionist leaders will be gone by Monday and it is a big momentum swing in Northern politics.

The combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2011 Assembly election was 41.1%, this time it is 39.8%

Maybe so but I'm basing it on the swing from the last election, republican/nationalist voters had become apathetic and it's likely that Brexit and RHI had a big impact on increasing the voter turnout. PBP would have ate into some of the SF vote since 2011.

But the combined nationalist vote is still just around what they got in the earliest Assembly elections, around 40%.

[armaghniac]

Danny Kennedy gone .

[Take Your Points]

Danny Kennedy gone .

Possible to have no UUP west of the Bann.

[armaghniac]

Big winners are nationalism and republicanism in particular. Fosters arrogance and condescension coming home to roost even though it didn't hit her own personal vote. Both unionist leaders will be gone by Monday and it is a big momentum swing in Northern politics.

The combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2011 Assembly election was 41.1%, this time it is 39.8%

They got a dose of the Trots in the meantime.

[Take Your Points]

Things are getting interesting in Upper Bann after elimination of Alliance and now UUP are bottom of the list.

SF   John O'Dowd      8,560.00
DUP   Jonathan Buckley   8,314.00
SDLP   Dolores Kelly      6,509.00
SF   Nuala Toman      6,294.00
UUP   Doug Beattie      6,174.00
UUP   Jo-Anne Dobson      5,910.00
WP   Colin Craig   Eliminated stage 1   
APNI   Tara Doyle   Eliminated stage 2   
TUV   Roy Ferguson   Eliminated stage 1   
GP   Simon Lee   Eliminated stage 1   
DUP   Carla Lockhart   Elected stage 1   
CON   Ian Nickels   Eliminated stage 1   

It will be interesting to see how much SDLP gains from elimination of Dobson to keep ahead of Toman.

[seafoid]

If the UUP stay anti Brexit they can destroy the DUP when Brexit fails.

[armaghniac]

If the UUP stay anti Brexit they can destroy the DUP when Brexit fails.

But they voted for Brexit, including in the amendment that Brexit respect the GFA. That alone caused Alliance to take some of their votes.

[armaghniac]

Things are getting interesting in Upper Bann after elimination of Alliance and now UUP are bottom of the list.

It will be interesting to see how much SDLP gains from elimination of Dobson to keep ahead of Toman.

Surely she will get more than Toman, however large or small that would be and so this is a rare SDLP gain?

[screenexile]

Arlene not speaking to the BBC... could we see a Trump style atrategy from the DUP where they vilify the media at every turn??

[Take Your Points]

Just look who is about to be eliminated in North Belfast:

PUP   Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston   Eliminated stage 3   -
PBP   Fiona Ferguson   Eliminated stage 2   -
IND   Adam Millar   Eliminated stage 1   -
GP   Malachai O'Hara   Eliminated stage 1   -
WP   Gemma Weir   Eliminated stage 1   -
SF   Gerry Kelly   -   6,582.00
SF   Carál Ní Chuilín   -   6,155.00
SDLP   Nichola Mallon   -   6,125.00
DUP   Paula Bradley   -   5,236.00
DUP   William Humphrey   4,937.00
APNI   Nuala McAllister   -   4,515.00
DUP   Nelson McCausland   4,372.00
UUP   Robert Foster   Eliminated stage 4   3,141.00

[armaghniac]

Just look who is about to be eliminated in North Belfast:

PUP   Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston   Eliminated stage 3   -
PBP   Fiona Ferguson   Eliminated stage 2   -
IND   Adam Millar   Eliminated stage 1   -
GP   Malachai O'Hara   Eliminated stage 1   -
WP   Gemma Weir   Eliminated stage 1   -
SF   Gerry Kelly   -   6,582.00
SF   Carál Ní Chuilín   -   6,155.00
SDLP   Nichola Mallon   -   6,125.00
DUP   Paula Bradley   -   5,236.00
DUP   William Humphrey   4,937.00
APNI   Nuala McAllister   -   4,515.00
DUP   Nelson McCausland   4,372.00
UUP   Robert Foster   Eliminated stage 4   3,141.00

Interesting in the South Antrim count 6
Pam Cameron (DUP) 5357.12
Trevor Clarke  (DUP) 5358.4 

one is for the chop, but which one?