Author Topic: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017  (Read 64810 times)

Avondhu star

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2017, 04:14:34 PM »
SF must be running 2  If they thought there wasnt a chance of 2 seats in a constituency that is nearly 45% catholic then there really is no hope for nationalism
To get two seats would require very disciplined vote management. It will need plenty of canvassers, division of territory and no poaching and of course an electorate who will buy in to the process. It may be easier to manage in the Belfast constituencies
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Take Your Points

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2017, 05:47:39 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

A lot of sitting MLAs won't be nominated because the number of seats is down from 6to 5 in each constituency.  I would assume that factors high in the decision to stand down by SF. Also relevant is the number of standing DUP MLAs saying they won't canvas.

Will the UUP make it a Brexit election? Or a DUP are crooked election. What have the SDLP other than a few decent MLAs to offer? And can they make any headway? SF constituency as strong as they believe?

Will voters turn out?

Having bust a gut to get two seats last time, there aren't two SF seats in a 5 seater.  I wonder if SDLP pick up enough transfers from SF could they nick a seat seat from UUP?

Here's the data from 2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-constituencies/N06000017

The quota will rise in 2017 to 7615 for 5 seats.

DUP           14,188    2 seats 2016
SF           11,373    2 seats 2016
UUP          9,884      2 seats 2016
SDLP           4,335
Alliance   1,424
TUV           1,177
UKIP           1,072
CISTA   704
PUP           672
Green   495
Labour   250
Cons           79
Ind           33
   
Quota   7615

Take Your Points

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2017, 05:56:30 PM »
SF must be running 2  If they thought there wasnt a chance of 2 seats in a constituency that is nearly 45% catholic then there really is no hope for nationalism

Based on 2016 election, only 34% of those who voted were SF and SDLP first preference voters.  Given the lack of transfers for SF from anyone else they will again struggle to get two elected, last time it was only on the final stage.

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2017, 06:04:56 PM »
The point is there are easily 2 nationalist quotas. SFs' 2 although difficult just has to stay im front of SDLP. Who ever is ahead will reach the quota when the other is eliminated with transfers hence why it would be extremely negative to just field 1 candidate. Even if the 2nd candidate fails it raises their profile and gives them good experience so all in all daft not to give it a go.

T Fearon

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2017, 06:23:13 PM »
Is Catherine Seeley not going to pursue her career as a Cilla Black impressionist?

JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2017, 06:38:11 PM »
Good news for SF in UB. Dolores kelly is standing for the SDLP. Probably only Alex Attwood in West Belfast who has overseen a worse collapse in a parties vote. Just shows the dearth in talent when failure keeps getting rewarded

bennydorano

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2017, 08:19:04 PM »
For the first time in maybe close on  20 years I'm not going to vote, they can all f**k off.

Minder

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2017, 08:20:17 PM »
For the first time in maybe close on  20 years I'm not going to vote, they can all f**k off.

Yeah that's how I feel
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T Fearon

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2017, 08:44:39 PM »
I see Paddy Power has Arlene at 4/9 to be First Minister and Michelle O'Neill evens to be DFM after the election

Orior

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2017, 09:37:42 PM »
For the first time in maybe close on  20 years I'm not going to vote, they can all f**k off.

But unfortunately that means you are happy with the status quo.
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bennydorano

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2017, 09:47:58 PM »
Big fan of the Quo.

stiffler

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2017, 09:53:57 PM »
If the DUP vote doesn't fall after the last 12 months, stormont will never work.
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JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2017, 10:00:52 PM »
For the first time in maybe close on  20 years I'm not going to vote, they can all f**k off.

But unfortunately that means you are happy with the status quo.

Agreed they may all be useless but the DUP are on a whole new level. Use your vote to make a difference. It would be worth it just to take the stupid grin off the likes of Arlene and Gregory

OgraAnDun

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2017, 10:13:52 PM »
For the first time in maybe close on  20 years I'm not going to vote, they can all f**k off.

Not voting doesn't mean 'f**k off'. Not voting means that you're sending out a message that says 'keep doing what you're doing and I'll certainly not prevent you ripping me off any more'.

heganboy

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Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2017, 10:30:24 PM »
if you can vote, please do
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