Author Topic: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017  (Read 71890 times)

give her dixie

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2405
    • View Profile
Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: January 13, 2017, 11:42:52 AM »
Since it's looking like an election in early March, I think a seperate thread on the upcoming election is worth starting.
next stop, September 10, for number 4......

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17729
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2017, 12:41:37 PM »
Stormont is very norn irn

The benches in Westminster are green but that was unacceptable for use at Stormont. According to wikipedia:

The painting The Entry of King William into Ireland, a gift from the Dutch government to its Northern Ireland counterpart, was hung in the House of Commons when it opened. However, it was removed after having been defaced by a Scottish preacher, who had travelled from Scotland for that express purpose. The reason for his anger was that the painting also showed the Pope, who had blessed William's enterprise.

The building itself changed little over the years, even as the parliaments meeting inside it did. To camouflage it during World War II, the building's Portland stone was painted with supposedly removable "paint" made of bitumen and cow manure. However, after the war, removing the paint proved an enormous difficulty, with the paint having scarred the stonework. It took seven years to remove the "paint", and the exterior façade has never regained its original white colour. While most traces of it were removed from the façades (though having done damage that can be seen up close), some of the remains of the paint survive in the inner courtyards and unseen parts of the place.
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

Orior

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9142
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2017, 02:13:47 PM »
Stormont is very norn irn

The benches in Westminster are green but that was unacceptable for use at Stormont. According to wikipedia:

The painting The Entry of King William into Ireland, a gift from the Dutch government to its Northern Ireland counterpart, was hung in the House of Commons when it opened. However, it was removed after having been defaced by a Scottish preacher, who had travelled from Scotland for that express purpose. The reason for his anger was that the painting also showed the Pope, who had blessed William's enterprise.

The building itself changed little over the years, even as the parliaments meeting inside it did. To camouflage it during World War II, the building's Portland stone was painted with supposedly removable "paint" made of bitumen and cow manure. However, after the war, removing the paint proved an enormous difficulty, with the paint having scarred the stonework. It took seven years to remove the "paint", and the exterior façade has never regained its original white colour. While most traces of it were removed from the façades (though having done damage that can be seen up close), some of the remains of the paint survive in the inner courtyards and unseen parts of the place.

No shit.
Cover me in chocolate and feed me to the lesbians

give her dixie

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2405
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2017, 02:16:12 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

Caitríona Ruane has also said she wont be standing in the upcoming election
next stop, September 10, for number 4......

heganboy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
  • well hello there!
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2017, 02:19:55 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

A lot of sitting MLAs won't be nominated because the number of seats is down from 6to 5 in each constituency.  I would assume that factors high in the decision to stand down by SF. Also relevant is the number of standing DUP MLAs saying they won't canvas.

Will the UUP make it a Brexit election? Or a DUP are crooked election. What have the SDLP other than a few decent MLAs to offer? And can they make any headway? SF constituency as strong as they believe?

Will voters turn out?
Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity

armaghniac

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11204
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2017, 02:48:21 PM »
This election could serve a useful purpose it is creates a majority of MLA's willing to vote for special treatment for NI to mitigate the consequences of Brexit. The British may not pay much heed, but an assembly that fails to ask is a waste of space. This would require one of the PBP loonies to lose to SF/SDLP and for Alliance to hold the centre seats, while the DUP lose a seat or two in the smaller assembly. This outcome seems perfectly possible.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17729
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2017, 02:49:15 PM »
James Craig

April 1934, in response to George Leeke's question regarding Craig's Protestant Parliament:

The hon. Member must remember that in the South they boasted of a Catholic State. They still boast of Southern Ireland being a Catholic State. All I boast of is that we are a Protestant Parliament and a Protestant State. It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17729
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2017, 02:50:09 PM »
This election could serve a useful purpose it is creates a majority of MLA's willing to vote for special treatment for NI to mitigate the consequences of Brexit. The British may not pay much heed, but an assembly that fails to ask is a waste of space. This would require one of the PBP loonies to lose to SF/SDLP and for Alliance to hold the centre seats, while the DUP lose a seat or two in the smaller assembly. This outcome seems perfectly possible.
Is anyone in the DUP anti Brexit?
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

lurganblue

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1871
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2017, 03:26:31 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

Talk on Twitter is that she is taking up a teaching post again

Owenmoresider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1861
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2017, 03:40:03 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

A lot of sitting MLAs won't be nominated because the number of seats is down from 6to 5 in each constituency.  I would assume that factors high in the decision to stand down by SF. Also relevant is the number of standing DUP MLAs saying they won't canvas.

Will the UUP make it a Brexit election? Or a DUP are crooked election. What have the SDLP other than a few decent MLAs to offer? And can they make any headway? SF constituency as strong as they believe?

Will voters turn out?

Having bust a gut to get two seats last time, there aren't two SF seats in a 5 seater.  I wonder if SDLP pick up enough transfers from SF could they nick a seat seat from UUP?
Even with nationalist turnout down there are 2 nationalist quotas there, it'd be a tighter act but not beyond them.

JPGJOHNNYG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 562
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2017, 03:46:20 PM »
SF must be running 2  If they thought there wasnt a chance of 2 seats in a constituency that is nearly 45% catholic then there really is no hope for nationalism

Avondhu star

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 543
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2017, 04:14:34 PM »
SF must be running 2  If they thought there wasnt a chance of 2 seats in a constituency that is nearly 45% catholic then there really is no hope for nationalism
To get two seats would require very disciplined vote management. It will need plenty of canvassers, division of territory and no poaching and of course an electorate who will buy in to the process. It may be easier to manage in the Belfast constituencies
Warning. Don't try this at home unless in the company of a responsible adult

Take Your Points

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2017, 05:47:39 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

A lot of sitting MLAs won't be nominated because the number of seats is down from 6to 5 in each constituency.  I would assume that factors high in the decision to stand down by SF. Also relevant is the number of standing DUP MLAs saying they won't canvas.

Will the UUP make it a Brexit election? Or a DUP are crooked election. What have the SDLP other than a few decent MLAs to offer? And can they make any headway? SF constituency as strong as they believe?

Will voters turn out?

Having bust a gut to get two seats last time, there aren't two SF seats in a 5 seater.  I wonder if SDLP pick up enough transfers from SF could they nick a seat seat from UUP?

Here's the data from 2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-constituencies/N06000017

The quota will rise in 2017 to 7615 for 5 seats.

DUP           14,188    2 seats 2016
SF           11,373    2 seats 2016
UUP          9,884      2 seats 2016
SDLP           4,335
Alliance   1,424
TUV           1,177
UKIP           1,072
CISTA   704
PUP           672
Green   495
Labour   250
Cons           79
Ind           33
   
Quota   7615

Take Your Points

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2017, 05:56:30 PM »
SF must be running 2  If they thought there wasnt a chance of 2 seats in a constituency that is nearly 45% catholic then there really is no hope for nationalism

Based on 2016 election, only 34% of those who voted were SF and SDLP first preference voters.  Given the lack of transfers for SF from anyone else they will again struggle to get two elected, last time it was only on the final stage.

JPGJOHNNYG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 562
    • View Profile
Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2017, 06:04:56 PM »
The point is there are easily 2 nationalist quotas. SFs' 2 although difficult just has to stay im front of SDLP. Who ever is ahead will reach the quota when the other is eliminated with transfers hence why it would be extremely negative to just field 1 candidate. Even if the 2nd candidate fails it raises their profile and gives them good experience so all in all daft not to give it a go.