Brexit.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother 

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

There is more to it than just that though.

If there is some deal on Irish passport holders being able to cross the border without delay, what if Dublin were to become financial capital of Europe? Does Belfast become a commuter town to Dublin with a functional rail link with electronic checks at both terminals?

With house prices in Dublin, the road commute (Dublin now 3rd most congested city in the world - not that Belfast can crow - 2nd most congested in UK), and purchasing power with € vs a depressed £, it is not that far fetched.

[seafoid]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Nobody knows what is going to happen.
The tories are all over the place and it is impossible to model but a no deal would destroy the UK economy and the only people who want that are
a few billionaires and their sockpuppets in the ERG and DUP
At some point it will be possible to understand why the DUP became sockpuppets but at the moment it seems very mysterious. Even if it was for money they would destroy the economic settlement that is the basis of the existence of NI so why would they do this?
The Tories have 40% support in the polls so most people have no idea what is going on. It is hard for people in rich countries to imagine things falling apart.
If the UK did leave it wouldn't be long before public order broke down and a GE or else the IMF was called.

 

[RadioGAAGAA]

In the scenario of a deal a lot of companies don't have the capacity or the skills to complete customs declarations, to control interruptions to their supply chains, finance to cope with tariffs and VAT. And the old " register a company in the ROI" is not the silver bullet everyone perceives it to be. The actual small, bit by bit outworkings specific to each and every SME is the problem. Even if you are ready is your supplier. Can you get another supplier(s)? Are they as good? Are they more expensive? Can they meet your time frames?  Multiply by 5, 50, 500, 5000 suppliers.

Finances to cope with tariffs is the smaller problem*! What about being able to remain competitive relative to EU peers with the tariff added to your bottom line?


*I assume you mean as a cashflow concern.

[trailer]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Nobody knows what is going to happen.
The tories are all over the place and it is impossible to model but a no deal would destroy the UK economy and the only people who want that are
a few billionaires and their sockpuppets in the ERG and DUP
At some point it will be possible to understand why the DUP became sockpuppets but at the moment it seems very mysterious. Even if it was for money they would destroy the economic settlement that is the basis of the existence of NI so why would they do this?
The Tories have 40% support in the polls so most people have no idea what is going on. It is hard for people in rich countries to imagine things falling apart.
If the UK did leave it wouldn't be long before public order broke down and a GE or else the IMF was called.

Not exactly true. Some thing are known. Up until now I thought there was a chance Brexit wouldn't happen. I now feel that it will definitely happen. It's just whether it'll be a no deal or a deal Brexit. (I  hope I am wrong)
Taking the politics and polls out of it. There's a feeling now that this is happening. 

In the scenario of a deal a lot of companies don't have the capacity or the skills to complete customs declarations, to control interruptions to their supply chains, finance to cope with tariffs and VAT. And the old " register a company in the ROI" is not the silver bullet everyone perceives it to be. The actual small, bit by bit outworkings specific to each and every SME is the problem. Even if you are ready is your supplier. Can you get another supplier(s)? Are they as good? Are they more expensive? Can they meet your time frames?  Multiply by 5, 50, 500, 5000 suppliers.

Finances to cope with tariffs is the smaller problem*! What about being able to remain competitive relative to EU peers with the tariff added to your bottom line?


*I assume you mean as a cashflow concern.

Yes cash flow. But you're right about bottom lines and competitiveness. There's so many layers to this.

[trailer]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother 

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

There is more to it than just that though.

If there is some deal on Irish passport holders being able to cross the border without delay, what if Dublin were to become financial capital of Europe? Does Belfast become a commuter town to Dublin with a functional rail link with electronic checks at both terminals?

With house prices in Dublin, the road commute (Dublin now 3rd most congested city in the world - not that Belfast can crow - 2nd most congested in UK), and purchasing power with € vs a depressed £, it is not that far fetched.

One thing that won't change, no matter deal or no deal, is the ability of ROI citizens to work in UK and vice versa. Delays at any possible border are unknown at this stage.

[RedHand88]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother 

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

There is more to it than just that though.

If there is some deal on Irish passport holders being able to cross the border without delay, what if Dublin were to become financial capital of Europe? Does Belfast become a commuter town to Dublin with a functional rail link with electronic checks at both terminals?

With house prices in Dublin, the road commute (Dublin now 3rd most congested city in the world - not that Belfast can crow - 2nd most congested in UK), and purchasing power with € vs a depressed £, it is not that far fetched.

One thing that won't change, no matter deal or no deal, is the ability of ROI citizens to work in UK and vice versa. Delays at any possible border are unknown at this stage.

What makes you so sure of this?? Doesn't this undermine the integrity of the single market?

[seafoid]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Nobody knows what is going to happen.
The tories are all over the place and it is impossible to model but a no deal would destroy the UK economy and the only people who want that are
a few billionaires and their sockpuppets in the ERG and DUP
At some point it will be possible to understand why the DUP became sockpuppets but at the moment it seems very mysterious. Even if it was for money they would destroy the economic settlement that is the basis of the existence of NI so why would they do this?
The Tories have 40% support in the polls so most people have no idea what is going on. It is hard for people in rich countries to imagine things falling apart.
If the UK did leave it wouldn't be long before public order broke down and a GE or else the IMF was called.

Not exactly true. Some thing are known. Up until now I thought there was a chance Brexit wouldn't happen. I now feel that it will definitely happen. It's just whether it'll be a no deal or a deal Brexit. (I  hope I am wrong)
Taking the politics and polls out of it. There's a feeling now that this is happening. 

In the scenario of a deal a lot of companies don't have the capacity or the skills to complete customs declarations, to control interruptions to their supply chains, finance to cope with tariffs and VAT. And the old " register a company in the ROI" is not the silver bullet everyone perceives it to be. The actual small, bit by bit outworkings specific to each and every SME is the problem. Even if you are ready is your supplier. Can you get another supplier(s)? Are they as good? Are they more expensive? Can they meet your time frames?  Multiply by 5, 50, 500, 5000 suppliers.

Finances to cope with tariffs is the smaller problem*! What about being able to remain competitive relative to EU peers with the tariff added to your bottom line?


*I assume you mean as a cashflow concern.

Yes cash flow. But you're right about bottom lines and competitiveness. There's so many layers to this.

May will not

work with Labour
Have a GE
Or a second ref

Because none of these is acceptable to the ERG/DUP  who want No deal

The people will decide whether or not Brexit goes ahead whether before or after 29 March
May's deal is crap , will involve the UK economy contracting and the UK giving up valuable concessions
No deal is insane

Brexit is shite any way you look at it. Even if May pulls off Brexit with a deal by 29 March it won't fly medium term because it hurts too many people.
The people were lied to.

Brexit is a waste of 3 years and 433 pages

[trailer]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother 

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

There is more to it than just that though.

If there is some deal on Irish passport holders being able to cross the border without delay, what if Dublin were to become financial capital of Europe? Does Belfast become a commuter town to Dublin with a functional rail link with electronic checks at both terminals?

With house prices in Dublin, the road commute (Dublin now 3rd most congested city in the world - not that Belfast can crow - 2nd most congested in UK), and purchasing power with € vs a depressed £, it is not that far fetched.

One thing that won't change, no matter deal or no deal, is the ability of ROI citizens to work in UK and vice versa. Delays at any possible border are unknown at this stage.

What makes you so sure of this?? Doesn't this undermine the integrity of the single market?

CTA predates the EU so movement of people irish and British citizens between Ireland and U.K. Will remain.
The single market is different and concerns goods and services.

[Rossfan]

I see Bertie was telling the Brits Brexit Committee  a few home truths today!!
"Belfast isn't the same as Finchley"
And when asked (mischievously) by a SNP member what people in Ireland thought of the petition for the 26 to remain the "UK" said " To put it kindly not very much"

[seafoid]

https://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/brexit-britains-trade-application-that-the-wto-rejected/

[seafoid]

What the Yanks want from a deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/zdboren/status/1095285542718263296

[omaghjoe]

I see Bertie was telling the Brits Brexit Committee  a few home truths today!!
"Belfast isn't the same as Finchley"
And when asked (mischievously) by a SNP member what people in Ireland thought of the petition for the 26 to remain the "UK" said " To put it kindly not very much"

Funny how former politicians especially former heads of governments start appear statesman like when in public......except....

....not Bertie

Still comes across as a shifty Dublin f**ker   

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/newton-emerson-the-dup-s-brexit-hardball-has-gone-flat-1.3792718

Newton Emerson: The DUP's Brexit hardball has gone flat



Newton Emerson

5


The DUP's Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson MP, continues to demand the backstop be scrapped, forcing the party to deny a split. Photograph: Getty Images
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Yards from the finishing line, the DUP's Brexit hardball has gone flat. Even the party's harshest critics must concede it has had a good run, at least within its own stated terms. The unionist tail has wagged the Westminster dog for a year and a half without the British government or any significant faction of the Conservative Party openly turning against it.
Nor has British public opinion spurned the union or unionism beyond the vocal minority which has always been so inclined.
Since the backstop emerged from withdrawal agreement negotiations in December 2017, the DUP has secured two apparently concrete victories: a commitment from London to protect the UK's internal market, and a concession from Brussels to extend the backstop customs territory to the whole UK.
May is still counting on just enough Labour members breaking ranks at the last minute to support her
However, the DUP undermined those victories by damning them as inadequate, and now it is clear they are all it will get.
Prime minister Theresa May's is running down the clock – this has become painfully apparent. She is daring the House of Commons to back her deal or no deal. If that fails she will ask the EU to reset the clock until she succeeds. There is no other plausible deal, prime minister or plan.
The DUP remains in an influential position. Hopes of a government pact with Labour or factions of Labour, rendering the unionist MPs and their backbench Tory allies redundant, are merely being strung out to pass the time.
May is still counting on just enough Labour members breaking ranks at the last minute to support her. That means she needs to keep the unionists onside for Brexit, as well as for the rest of this parliament, as the Conservatives cannot govern without them.

Blue Billywig Video Player DUP leader Arlene Foster and deputy leader Nigel Dodds at Downing Street. File photograph: Reuters
Painfully apparent
Any minor gesture May can beg from Brussels in the next six weeks will be aimed at giving the DUP one last thing it can sell as a victory. But that is all the party can hold out for, as has also become painfully apparent.
Contrast the DUP's present tone with December 2017, when a party source declared: "This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've ripped off our eyelids."
•   Brexit Borderlands: The Irish Times maps Ireland's border crossings
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BREXIT: The Facts
Read them here
On Monday, DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds said "it's time to dial down the rhetoric and focus on solutions rather than scaremongering", provoking widespread merriment given recent DUP rhetoric.
On Sunday, DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson penned a strikingly emollient article in the Dublin press, admitting the party has been guilty of "megaphone diplomacy", praising North-South co-operation and pledging to seek a Brexit deal and an open Border.
Donaldson quit the UUP in 2003 after dividing it by rejecting the Belfast Agreement. Now spoken of as an imminent replacement for DUP leader Arlene Foster, he seems to have been tasked with uniting the DUP behind the withdrawal agreement.
If Ian Paisley senior was still alive he would no doubt consider this an amusingly Old Testament parable.
The DUP's Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson MP, continues to demand the backstop be scrapped, forcing the party to deny a split.
Every other senior member of the DUP, including Foster, has shifted from calling for the backstop's removal to saying they could accept it with changes or qualifications, while leaving the options for that open. Yet they are also still warning it could break up the UK.

Border poll
In a related wobble the DUP is plainly unnerved by talk of a Border poll.
When Sinn Féin demanded a poll in 2013, Foster famously said "be careful what you wish for". Since the EU referendum she has said a poll would be "divisive and destabilising".
This is not because the DUP thinks unionism would lose, or even that a Border poll is likely, but because the party knows its voters do not thank it for raising the issue through its handling of Brexit.
Can the DUP sell what looks like an inevitable climbdown on the withdrawal agreement?

If and when May's deal passes, the choice unionist voters will perceive to have been made will be between the backstop and no backstop
Opinion polls show a solid majority of DUP voters prefer the backstop to a no-deal Brexit, in line with Northern Ireland voters overall. However, questions on stark hypothetical choices produce irrelevant results – much polling on a united Ireland has the same flaw.
If and when May's deal passes, the choice unionist voters will perceive to have been made will be between the backstop and no backstop, and they will have to be talked out of the fears the DUP talked them into in the first place.
Mercenary chances abound to sweeten the deal. The DUP has an unprecedented moment of leverage and could ask for almost anything in the British government's gift – most predictably more money for Northern Ireland, or more cannily ways to smooth the path back to Stormont.
But the party will be looking over its shoulder for hardline opportunism from smaller rivals. The UUP and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) are both still demanding the backstop's full removal.
Historically, pathetically, that is the tail that always ends up wagging the unionist dog.

[Harold Disgracey]

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother 

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

There is more to it than just that though.

If there is some deal on Irish passport holders being able to cross the border without delay, what if Dublin were to become financial capital of Europe? Does Belfast become a commuter town to Dublin with a functional rail link with electronic checks at both terminals?

With house prices in Dublin, the road commute (Dublin now 3rd most congested city in the world - not that Belfast can crow - 2nd most congested in UK), and purchasing power with € vs a depressed £, it is not that far fetched.

Not far fetched at all, would be interesting to see if this thought has occurred to estate agents/property developers.
I know a few people who already commute to Dublin daily on the train.

[Rossfan]

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-must-face-a-border-on-island-or-a-border-between-ireland-and-eu-in-no-deal-brexit-37816814.html