Scottish independence referendum thread

[seafoid]

Brexit changes everything . 100000 jobs could be lost in banking.
Splits the Tory party apart. Could see the UK break up

[muppet]

This Brexit thing has moved a few from one side to the other on this matter.

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times indicated an almost direct reversal of the result of the 2014 referendum, with 52% in favour of independence, up seven points, and 48% against, down seven points.

The snapshot of 620 adults also found that 52% thought Scotland was likely to become independent within 10 years, rising from 30% when the same question was asked in April.

A poll for the Sunday Post that asked respondents how they would vote if a second referendum were held tomorrow, revealed 59% would vote yes to independence, 32% no and 9% undecided.

If there is one thing that we learned from Brexit, it is that everyone grossly overestimates the accuracy of polls.

[No wides]

Brexit could make the Union stronger - looks like Scotland has to leave with UK and if they get independence re-apply, which would mean them having to take the Euro.

[Rossfan]

Who says Scotland would have to reapply?
They are already in it and no doubt arrangements to remain would be negotiated as part of the England/ Wales exit.
Who said they " will have to take the Euro"?
10 or 11 of the current members aren't in the €zone.

[Clov]

They won't have to "take the euro" immediately to join the EU, but any new candidate countries have to make a commitment to adopting the single currency in time.

The currency issue is one of the biggest stumbling blocks for the Scot's independence movement. Adopting the Euro would most likely be very unpopular.

I wonder though is there a scenario where they force the abandonment of Brexit through the courts, and then exit the union (which would be damaged irreparably at that stage) while retaining some sort of status quo with the EU?
(Though Spain would probably block that last bit).

[seafoid]

If the UK breaks up , Catalonia will go for independence.
Maybe the Brits could give Spain Gibraltar as compensation

[armaghniac]

If there is one thing that we learned from Brexit, it is that everyone grossly overestimates the accuracy of polls.

I don't know that we did learn this. The polls weren't that far off, as many showed a Leave majority in the last couple of weeks. What throws the polls off is the differential turnout.

If the Scottish poll with 59% out, 32% in and 9% undecided was in any way professionally conducted, then that suggests a majority.

[Clov]

The polls, bookmakers and markets were wrong at the death though as they all were pointing to a narrow remain vote.

One theory i heard was that a failure to take account of postal votes might have led to an overconfidence in the remain votes. Apparently 20% of the electorate were registered to vote by postal votes. As they were cast a couple of weeks in advance (significantly, before the murder of Jo Cox), their distribution may have reflected a different mood among voters that pertained then - they're also older voters and more likely to vote leave anyway. May be the pollsters et al accurately gauged the mood of the electorate on the day of the vote but that it was the postal voters "wot won it".

[armaghniac]

Another Scottish poll showing 50/50 today and Nicola Sturgeon is on TV tonight apparently musing about a date for a referendum.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-poll-says-indyref2-yes-vote-at-50-1-4387435

all of this could considerably affect the mood music in the 6 counties.

[bennydorano]

Starting gun fired on Indyref#2

Scottish independence: Nicola Sturgeon to seek second referendum - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181

Doomed to fail by a bigger margin than the first imo & quite possibly destroy the Independence movement for many years to come.

[Rossfan]

Based on?

[bennydorano]

Based on my opinion.

[LCohen]

Based on?

I'm guessing opinion polls and economics.

Sturgeon wants Independence. She doesn't want a referendum. Not now. She wants concessions. She might get them. More Nissan than William Wallace

[armaghniac]

Based on?

I'm guessing opinion polls and economics.

Sturgeon wants Independence. She doesn't want a referendum. Not now. She wants concessions. She might get them. More Nissan than William Wallace

There is a lot of truth in this and she may do the rest of us some good also in that she may have taken wind out of the sails of the gung-ho hard Brexit lunatics.

[Farrandeelin]

May mightn't allow it.