Scottish independence referendum thread

[Sidney]

I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?

Anything over 80% would be extraordinary.

But not sure it helps the Yes.
All the bookies are still broadly in agreement. No 1/5, Yes 7/2.

Why wouldn't it help Yes? Turnout is usually lower in lower socio-economic areas. People in these areas are surely more likely to vote Yes if they do vote. If the turnout in these areas is high, and it looks like it is, it has to help the Yes vote.

[AZOffaly]

If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

[Hardy]

I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?

Anything over 80% would be extraordinary.

But not sure it helps the Yes.
All the bookies are still broadly in agreement. No 1/5, Yes 7/2.

Why wouldn't it help Yes? Turnout is usually lower in lower socio-economic areas. People in these areas are surely more likely to vote Yes if they do vote. If the turnout in these areas is high, and it looks like it is, it has to help the Yes vote.

That's it - why I assumed a high turnout favours Yes.

If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

No. I'd think it would mean the opposite in that case, as there are probably more people who don't habitually use their franchise who would be on the No side in that one. That's my speculation anyway.

[Hardy]

The Yes price is drifting slightly on Betfair since this morning 5.7 out to 5.9.

The bookies'/exchange prices, however, don't represent any prescience on the part of bookies, as in "the bookies are seldom wrong". It's a market. It reflects the opinions of the participants in the market, i.e. the weight of money on each side. In the case of an election/referendum, I'd guess that's influenced most by the published opinion polls, just as our speculation here is.

[armaghniac]

It'll disappoint me when the Scots bottle it and a 'No Vote' wins. Media stoking it up closer than it is as it makes good TV.

I think it is like the Mayo - Kerry game, the referee wasn't fair and there should be replay until the right result to obtained.

Quote from: AZOffaly on Today at 02:37:48 PM

    If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

No. I'd think it would mean the opposite in that case, as there are probably more people who don't habitually use their franchise who would be on the No side in that one. That's my speculation anyway.

leave Milltown out of it, Scotland is different.

[Eamonnca1]

Aren't bookies already paying out on a No vote?

[armaghniac]

Still trading on Betfair if you want a punt, no is still 1.18.
The markets there suggest a Turnout prediction in the mid 80s.

[ardtole]

I stuck €20 on boylesports for a yes vote at 4/1. Hopefully cover the beer on Sunday.

[ONeill]

Changed my mind. Instead of 55% no I think closer to 60

[AQMP]

Changed my mind. Instead of 55% no I think closer to 60

Ah'll no baither votin' then Wullie

[seafoid]

I think Yes might sneak it. All depends on turnout.

[Hardy]

The Yes price is drifting slightly on Betfair since this morning 5.7 out to 5.9.

The bookies'/exchange prices, however, don't represent any prescience on the part of bookies, as in "the bookies are seldom wrong". It's a market. It reflects the opinions of the participants in the market, i.e. the weight of money on each side. In the case of an election/referendum, I'd guess that's influenced most by the published opinion polls, just as our speculation here is.

Still drifting - 6.2

[AQMP]

No camp (and O'Neill) predicting 58 - 42 "win"

[LondonCamanachd]

F*ck's sake, democracy is horrible - this is like trying to follow a Cup Final penalty shootout on a radio with a dodgy signal.

I have no idea what will happen, I'm swinging from hope and elation to despair and fear, as I see the various posts on Twitter and Facebook from folk who have voted.

It comes down to this, which side of the Scots psyche is stronger: "ach, f*ck it, let's dae this" or "we'll pay for this" ?

[armaghniac]

No camp (and O'Neill) predicting 58 - 42 "win"

The odds haven't swung much, so the "wisdom of crowds" does not suggest such a large margin. 
There are no tallymen, apparently, so hard to get a feel for things after 10pm.