Favoured Coalition Partnership

[resdubwhite]

Blast05, Bev is not married, I assume its her partner you are on about TJG?? There is not a hope in hell of her being declared bankrupt.

Does she not owe something in the region of 2.5 million.

[magpie seanie]

I listed 3 examples on 1 edition of Primetime. Saying he got one figure wrong is wrong.

Was out of the country and didn't see said programme so I'll bow to your better judgement. Apologies.

As for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time.

Yeah, agreed. That always makes me laugh. Democracy isn't perfect.

If the economy was well managed then all the new jobs which have been added over the last 5 years would not have been restricted to the contruction sector and the public sector.

That's debatable I'd feel. I think the construction "boom" was a secondary effect of the initial rapid economic growth. I don't claim to be an expert in this field though. I'd say you'd agree that there is only a certain amount a Govt can control or manage despite their claims.

[blast05]

Blast05, Bev is not married, I assume its her partner you are on about TJG??

Yep, sorry, thats who i am on about.
resdubwhite, its a couple of million alright .... but 500K minimum would be claimed as salary over the next 5 years for starters, plus generous expenses plus bigger pension, presuming her partner bails her out.

[deiseach]

As for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time.

I don't see what's so wrong with this. It's called revenue buoyancy in economist parlance and it's generally caused when more people are in employment than were anticipated when the budget was drawn up, thus reducing social welfare payouts and increasing tax revenue. How you expect a Minister for Finance to anticipate how many extra jobs are going to be created in the upcoming year is beyond me.

[J70]

Greens for me. I shudder to think what Ireland's environmental record would be like if not for the EU.

[Bogball XV]

maybe time to throw in a few more options - it'll be hard to see who other than JHR goes in with Bertie now - i don't think harney will stick with him, this is her chance to reinvent the pd's, i think she'll take it.  Whether Inda makes it in or not, i don't know, but bert ain't going to.

[belleaqua]

There ya go Bogball XV I put in the other option-took a while to type it out though!! It would be some grouping-not at all feasible I believe!

[MacDanger]

FF minority Govt if i were to pu money on it. Wouldn't suit either the PDs or Lab to go in with FF and don't think FF will ascede to Greens demands. Another election within 3 years.

[Bogball XV]

FF minority Govt if i were to pu money on it. Wouldn't suit either the PDs or Lab to go in with FF and don't think FF will ascede to Greens demands. Another election within 3 years.

Cheers belleaqua, look the new option is racing ahead too!!  I reckon there'll be another election by the end of the year, unless Enda's rainbow thingy gets up and running - that might keep solid for about 18 months.
Why do we want a stable govt anyway?  Would a big rainbow govt not be more representative - you know, a bit more democratic than one party govt?
Donagh, what way do you see the shinners voting in the taoiseach vote?  Or will they vote?  Maybe against Enda, but not for Bertie (if it is indeed Bertie going forward for FF).

[AZOffaly]

Interesting Questions and Answers last night I thought. The question was put to the panel as to whether the new controversy will affect the formation of a new government, and the general consensus was 'No', although Joan Burton and Richard Bruton were both in the 'Doubtful, but let's see' camp.

Joan Burton said again that she expects Bertie to be Taoiseach. Richard Bruton kept trying to convince everybody, himself mostly I thought, that the numbers 'might' add up for the Alliance for Change, although to be honest Alliance is too weak a word for what he was proposing. Having said that. Richard Bruton, in my view, would be a better leader than Enda Kenny for Fine Gael. He seems to have a bit of charisma and craic about him as well as being an astute politician, and a good financial brain.

Felt sorry for Fiona O'Malley. Apart from Kevin Myers, she was the only non-TD on the panel, and it was reinforced every time she was mentioned from the first introductions : "Joan Burton TD Labour, Richard Bruton, TD Fine Gael, Brian Lenihan TD FF, Finian McGrath, TD Independent and Fiona O'Malley, eh, Representing PDs tonight." Ouch.

She seemed badly rattled as well, and you would feel sorry for them on a human level. It must be a very chastening experience to lose a seat. Much worse than failing to get elected at all I'd say.

[Hardy]

I think my bet on Cowen for Taoiseach might be alive again, having seemed to die with Bertie's statement and election success. The cat that's scattering the pigeons now is yesterday's revelation that the bank records don't support Bertie's statements. It's hard to imagine how an explanation for that can be conjured up. Given that Bertie's not due to appear before the tribunal for weeks or months and that a government must be formed in the meantime, it's hard to see how any party leader can deal with him while this discrepancy is outstanding. 

Of course, it's hard to see Fianna Fáil dumping its most successful leader ever, straight after his record-breaking success, but if that's the price of power, they'd fillet him in a second.

It's also going to be fun to see where the tribunal will go today. Yesterday's accusations by Bertie's counsel effectively amount to the Taoiseach, representing the government that set up the tribunal, accusing that tribunal of bias against him as an individual being investigated by the same tribunal. If somebody wrote a play with a script like that it would be dismissed as too fanciful. What can the tribunal judges do now? Ask for a withdrawal of the accusations? Hold the counsel in contempt (not sure if that applies in a tribunal)? Or resign themselves, since the head of government has effectively expressed no confidence in them?

[Bogball XV]

as you say hardy, it's not going to be possible for bert to come up with a real defence - he has now perjured himself to the tribunal too.  I really think when it becomes apparent what he has actually done, the other parties won't go near him - what they mostly said last night was, once it's been summarised in the newspapers tomorrow, we'll see if there's an impact then.
I think your Cowen bet could be a runner too, unfortunately, i do think bert will form a govt, but he won't last long.  Remember 2 weeks ago, he mentioned that he's dealing with the revenue re the loans etc, i really hope he hasn't told them any lies, that could be very serious and much as I don't like the man, i wouldn't particularly like to see him in the Joy, but Burke went for less.

[Declan]

it's hard to see how any party leader can deal with him while this discrepancy is outstanding

Do you not think they'll play the old "thats a matter for Fianna Fail" trick Hardy. You know what happens to principles when the prospect of power looms.

It will be interesting to see what Mahon says today alright. But yesterday was classic FF strategy in relation to any issues that come up in the tribunal. Smear the leaks and judges and deflect attention way from the facts. There could well turn out to be a perfectly natural explanation for the discrepancies in Berties own statements but no say I've done everything I've been asked to do by the tribunal and produce all the documentation I've been asked to and they are persecuting me by the leaks. Sounds very similar to what Lawlor was on about a few years ago.

[AZOffaly]

Bertie will form the next government, and will last about 6 months. He will then hand over to Cowen, who will have 4 and a half years to convince the electorate that he can run the country. The fact that Cowen is the heir apparent will be a help to FF in forming the Gov, as he is a popular character.

[Hardy]

Declan, AZ I don't think they'll get away with "this is a matter for FF" and go ahead negotiating government with Bertie when the media are jumping all over it and "stable government" is the catchphrase du jour. I think Bogball is right – FG are already issuing statements, Labour are waiting to consider what yesterday means when they read the papers(!) and even Finian McGrath was on this morning saying 5-year stability was everything to him and implying that an unresolved accusation hanging over Bertie was not conducive to going into government with him.

Maybe it's possible for Bertie's counsel to request the tribunal (if they're still talking to him!) in the national interest, to bring Bertie's cross-examination forward so that it can be dealt with before the Dáil is due to meet. Then all that's needed is for Bertie to come up with a story.