The 2008 US Election thread

[FL/MAYO]

Clinton could win Florida in a Presidential election. Florida is a funny southern state in that South Florida (most heavily populated area) is made up of liberal democrats that moved here from  the North East (New York and New England areas). The further north in Florida that you go the more Republican and southern the state becomes. Because Clinton is a New York senator she would get a ton of votes in the South Florida area but I reakon it could be as close as in 2000 as to which party would win the state. She is definatly not popular among conservatives here actually they despise the Clintons. I would like the Democrats to win the next election but I think both Clinton and Obama will not get the male middle of the road democratic votes in the southen states, John Edwards might be the safe bet for democrats.

[J70]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

Clinton put a huge effort in and finished 3rd.

I really believe that the USA will not vote for a black person or a woman. If either of these 2 are nominated the Republicans will win. In the past Democrats have needed states in the South to win the Presidency. No state in the south will vote for Obama or Clinton. They can't get the numbers.

http://www.270towin.com/

Here's a link to the results. The electoral college is one of the checks and balances built into the constitution and without winning a significant number of votes in the South a Democrat has never won.

Carter swept the South in 1976 to win. Clinton won 7 states in 92 and the same again in 96. Kerry & Gore won nothing in that region in 2000 & 2004 and lost (Florida is another discussion).

And I'd safely say Britain wasn't ready for a female prime minister in 1979.

People say that in every country.

The US has a female speaker of the house, in line for the presidency if Bush and Cheney were both incapacitated. The last and current secretaries of state are black.

Sure, there will be some who won't vote for an African American or a woman, but I doubt very much if that will be a major factor in the election.

[Bogball XV]

The US has a female speaker of the house, in line for the presidency if Bush and Cheney were both incapacitated. The last and current secretaries of state are black.

Sure, there will be some who won't vote for an African American or a woman, but I doubt very much if that will be a major factor in the election.

Will it not be a major factor in mobilising the republican vote?  What if the 2 of them are on the ticket?  Do they just presume that any state not on the seaboards won't vote for them anyway?  I have no idea, but I did think that race and sex would be major factors for a large number of voters, in much the may that gays, guns and god mobilised them last time around.

[Hardy]

democrats are banned from campaigning in Florida

Jayz! I knew the Bushes had Florida sewn up, but I didn't realise ...

[FL/MAYO]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

Clinton put a huge effort in and finished 3rd.

I really believe that the USA will not vote for a black person or a woman. If either of these 2 are nominated the Republicans will win. In the past Democrats have needed states in the South to win the Presidency. No state in the south will vote for Obama or Clinton. They can't get the numbers.

http://www.270towin.com/

Here's a link to the results. The electoral college is one of the checks and balances built into the constitution and without winning a significant number of votes in the South a Democrat has never won.

Carter swept the South in 1976 to win. Clinton won 7 states in 92 and the same again in 96. Kerry & Gore won nothing in that region in 2000 & 2004 and lost (Florida is another discussion).

And I'd safely say Britain wasn't ready for a female prime minister in 1979.

People say that in every country.

The US has a female speaker of the house, in line for the presidency if Bush and Cheney were both incapacitated. The last and current secretaries of state are black.

Sure, there will be some who won't vote for an African American or a woman, but I doubt very much if that will be a major factor in the election.

Pelosi was not elected by the people to be Speaker and both Colin Powell and Rice were appointed to their positions. If you do not think that race or gender are an issue you have not spent to much time in the southern states, it unfortuate but thats the way things are in the south. I am suprised by the amount of people whom I thought were liberal democrats that will not vote for Obama or Clinton based on their race and gender.
The Democrats should be hoping for Guiliani or Romney to be selected as the Christian right will not get behind them as they have Huckerbee.

[FL/MAYO]

democrats are banned from campaigning in Florida

Jayz! I knew the Bushes had Florida sewn up, but I didn't realise ...

They moved the primary dates in Florida against the wishes of the Demoratic party so all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida. Stupid move by the Democrats to piss of the Democratic grass roots in a swing state, not suprising if any one could fcuk up a sure thing it is the Democratic party.

[Lecale2]

I agree with FL/Mayo. This is essentially a direct election of the President where individual Americans to go into a private voting booth and make their choice.  Even if the opinion polls had Obama 10 points clear I would still bet against him. Middle America and the South will not vote for an African America as President. I wish I was wrong but I'm convinced I 'm not. We'll see in November.

Clinton simply hasn't a wide enough appeal to get elected.

[J70]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

Clinton put a huge effort in and finished 3rd.

I really believe that the USA will not vote for a black person or a woman. If either of these 2 are nominated the Republicans will win. In the past Democrats have needed states in the South to win the Presidency. No state in the south will vote for Obama or Clinton. They can't get the numbers.

http://www.270towin.com/

Here's a link to the results. The electoral college is one of the checks and balances built into the constitution and without winning a significant number of votes in the South a Democrat has never won.

Carter swept the South in 1976 to win. Clinton won 7 states in 92 and the same again in 96. Kerry & Gore won nothing in that region in 2000 & 2004 and lost (Florida is another discussion).

And I'd safely say Britain wasn't ready for a female prime minister in 1979.

People say that in every country.

The US has a female speaker of the house, in line for the presidency if Bush and Cheney were both incapacitated. The last and current secretaries of state are black.

Sure, there will be some who won't vote for an African American or a woman, but I doubt very much if that will be a major factor in the election.

Pelosi was not elected by the people to be Speaker and both Colin Powell and Rice were appointed to their positions. If you do not think that race or gender are an issue you have not spent to much time in the southern states, it unfortuate but thats the way things are in the south. I am suprised by the amount of people whom I thought were liberal democrats that will not vote for Obama or Clinton based on their race and gender.
The Democrats should be hoping for Guiliani or Romney to be selected as the Christian right will not get behind them as they have Huckerbee.

I won't dispute that, but I doubt very much if the Democratic candidate will be relying too much on winning southern states, with the exception of Florida. But that's just my opinion - there are a few people I know who agree with you that those issues might seriously impact Obama or Clinton. I think its overstated. We'll see.

[FL/MAYO]

The election will probably come down to the 3 swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida just like the last two elections.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Still can't understand why Clinton doesn't have broad popular support within the Democratic electorate?

[Carmen Stateside]

For the Democrats the following dates are noteworthy

January 3, 2008    Iowa    caucus    
January 8, 2008    New Hampshire    primary         
January 15, 2008    Michigan    primary              
January 19, 2008    Nevada    caucus          
January 26, 2008    South Carolina    primary         
January 29, 2008    Florida             primary

Whats particularly noteworthy is that at the minute the primaries in Michigan and Florida do not count for the nomination and infact democrats are banned from campaigning in Florida

Then we role into super duper tuesday with the following primaries and caucuses on february 5th

Alabama    primary
Alaska    caucus    
Arizona    primary
Arkansas    primary
California    primary    
Colorado    caucus
Connecticut    primary
Delaware    primary    
Georgia    primary    
Idaho    caucus    
Illinois    primary
Kansas    caucus
Massachusetts    primary
Minnesota    caucus    
Missouri    primary
New Jersey    primary
New Mexico    caucus    
New York    primary    
North Dakota    caucus    
Oklahoma    primary
Tennessee    primary
Utah    primary

If the nomination isn't sown up by then we have the final primaries in february and March, with the non states votes in March and finish in South Dakota on I believe June 3rd


Republicans have a slightly different order but I dont have it to hand

Why is it only these states that has the caucus?
Is there a reason or are they just picked out of a hat?

[Boynegael]

I believe this election will be very interesting and can't wait to see who the candidates will be...there are a lot of firsts...first woman, first African American, first Mormon, first Italian American. For what it's worth, here's my opinion on the runners who I believe have a chance of winning their respective party nominations.

Dems

Clinton:  Despised by the right wing and unfortunately will do more to mobilize the Evangelicals than any of the Republican candidates..even Huckabee...albeit they will be mobilized by hatred...I think she has a great  chance of winning the nomination...but have serious doubts that she could pull off a November win...

Obama:  Everyone seems to bemoan his lack of experience....I think this is an asset...he hasn't being in Washington long enough to be bought and paid for...He has half a million donators...one in every three hundred americans has donated to his campaign...this is previously unheard of..these aren't maximum donations from special interest groups..but small donations from VOTERS...He is very eloquent, easy to listen to, smart and I think can rope in a lot of independents....the cons....unfortunately I think racism is alive and well in America, no doubt Fox News et al will give the public a daily reminder that his middle name is Hussein and will constantly mispronounce his surname as Osama...he will face dirty tricks, dirty tricks all the way...if he is the candidate there will be pickup skid marks from the trailer parks to the booths on election day...hopefully in this situation the stereotype will be true and most of them won't be able to read...yes i'm a dem...dont' skin me alive for that remark...

Edwards:  Won't do it...been on the ticket before...you don't get a second chance to make a first impression..

Repubs

Huckabee:  He scares the shit outta me....another Jesus freak legislating from the pulpit....could be worse than Bush...talking about tent revivals in New Hampshire today...God save us....

Romney:  Certainly looks Presidential....if he doesn't get the nomination..has a future in Hollywood....but don't touch the hair....I think the Dems could beat him in Nov....terrible debater, who would be creamed by Obama, Hilary or Edwards...but then again look what happened with Bush

McCain:  Very conservative..but I think also very honest...can work across party lines (as seen with the failed immigration bill...more about that later)....too old...in his seventies now

Guliani:  What can I say...HATE THE BASTARD... I think he has turned a national tragedy into his personal gravy train....America's mayor MY ARSE....he didn't do a goddam thing any other mayor wouldn't have done in the same position....he couldn't even refrain from mentioning 9/11 today after his dismal performance in Iowa (mainly due to the fact he didn't even bother to go there yesterday)  " I'm not worried, i was worried on 9/11 a few time...but i'm not worried today....He has placed all his eggs in one basket...Florida...hope he has crashed and burned before then...His kids don't even talk to him (says a lot)...and if i have to watch that fake, plastic, Posh Spice fake smiley wife of his for 4yrs...i'll have a friggin breakdown....

On immigration...I don't believe it will be touched until 2012....no-one Dem or Repub is going to want to be a one term president...and whether we like it or not...legalizing the undocumented is incredibly unpopular with voters....an incumbant isn't going to lose a re-election on immigration....

feel free to rebut...just my humble opinion...

[Tyrones own]

I believe this election will be very interesting and can't wait to see who the candidates will be...there are a lot of firsts...first woman, first African American, first Mormon, first Italian American. For what it's worth, here's my opinion on the runners who I believe have a chance of winning their respective party nominations.

Dems

Clinton:  Despised by the right wing and unfortunately will do more to mobilize the Evangelicals than any of the Republican candidates..even Huckabee...albeit they will be mobilized by hatred...I think she has a great  chance of winning the nomination...but have serious doubts that she could pull off a November win...

Obama:  Everyone seems to bemoan his lack of experience....I think this is an asset...he hasn't being in Washington long enough to be bought and paid for...He has half a million donators...one in every three hundred americans has donated to his campaign...this is previously unheard of..these aren't maximum donations from special interest groups..but small donations from VOTERS...He is very eloquent, easy to listen to, smart and I think can rope in a lot of independents....the cons....unfortunately I think racism is alive and well in America, no doubt Fox News et al will give the public a daily reminder that his middle name is Hussein and will constantly mispronounce his surname as Osama...he will face dirty tricks, dirty tricks all the way...if he is the candidate there will be pickup skid marks from the trailer parks to the booths on election day...hopefully in this situation the stereotype will be true and most of them won't be able to read...yes i'm a dem...dont' skin me alive for that remark...

Edwards:  Won't do it...been on the ticket before...you don't get a second chance to make a first impression..

Repubs

Huckabee:  He scares the shit outta me....another Jesus freak legislating from the pulpit....could be worse than Bush...talking about tent revivals in New Hampshire today...God save us....

Romney:  Certainly looks Presidential....if he doesn't get the nomination..has a future in Hollywood....but don't touch the hair....I think the Dems could beat him in Nov....terrible debater, who would be creamed by Obama, Hilary or Edwards...but then again look what happened with Bush

McCain:  Very conservative..but I think also very honest...can work across party lines (as seen with the failed immigration bill...more about that later)....too old...in his seventies now

Guliani:  What can I say...HATE THE BASTARD... I think he has turned a national tragedy into his personal gravy train....America's mayor MY ARSE....he didn't do a goddam thing any other mayor wouldn't have done in the same position....he couldn't even refrain from mentioning 9/11 today after his dismal performance in Iowa (mainly due to the fact he didn't even bother to go there yesterday)  " I'm not worried, i was worried on 9/11 a few time...but i'm not worried today....He has placed all his eggs in one basket...Florida...hope he has crashed and burned before then...His kids don't even talk to him (says a lot)...and if i have to watch that fake, plastic, Posh Spice fake smiley wife of his for 4yrs...i'll have a friggin breakdown....

On immigration...I don't believe it will be touched until 2012....no-one Dem or Repub is going to want to be a one term president...and whether we like it or not...legalizing the undocumented is incredibly unpopular with voters....an incumbant isn't going to lose a re-election on immigration....

feel free to rebut...just my humble opinion...

Jaysus, even if i had the time i can't say I'd differ a lot from the above, fair play to you Boynegael
you're bang on the money at this point!............ imo of course

[stephenite]

Still can't understand why Clinton doesn't have broad popular support within the Democratic electorate?

Why? Serioulsy, what can't you understand?

It's not that hard - they're afraid that Hillary as the candidate will ensure a Republican back in the White House.

[Tyrones own]

Still can't understand why Clinton doesn't have broad popular support within the Democratic electorate?

Why? Serioulsy, what can't you understand?

It's not that hard - they're afraid that Hillary as the candidate will ensure a Republican back in the White House.

SSSSHH  Stepenite
Suddenly everyone's making sense around here